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Author Topic: S3052 and Manipulation Techniques  (Read 9493 times)
P4man
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February 12, 2012, 10:32:30 PM
 #41

You were saying speculator ownership dwarfs the underlying economy. That's concentration of ownership, right?

Depends on how you define concentration of ownership. The amount of speculators vs "traders" (trading goods and services for btc) or how btc's are divided among owners. In the first sense, yeah obviously, but I meant the second when I spoke of concentration of ownership and I thought you did too. There might be some people who own a large % of all btcs, but I dont see that as a problem or having a big effect either way. I thought you did, but perhaps I misunderstood you

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I don't think Bitcoin needs anything to change fundamentally. Ease of client use is a big thing, but it will come in time. Of course light clients like spinner are already idiot proof. I think it just needs time. We'll see. I remain optimistic.

I meant fundamentals as in bitcoin becoming more mainstream. I didnt mean technical improvements in the software.

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February 13, 2012, 12:08:09 AM
 #42

First off, I have been a subscriber myself for a considerable time, and it hasn’t always been like this. Second, I do not want to attack S3052, but when I see the bullshit the public and subscribers get served, I just have to call it out.

Why I am no longer subscribed is that S3052’s analysis devolved 1) into a weekly newsletter with updated charts and more importantly, 2) almost pyramid-like zero sum CRASH or RALLY short-term updates.

The subscribers obviously have a disproportionate influence over the market, because they act all at once and the market is already small. Subscribers are also likely to have a bunch of BTC due to the cost of 5 BTC/month.

Now, what happens when he issues a short-term CRASH alert is that people race to sell WITHOUT REVIEWING THE ANALYSIS because they want to be first. So when his E-Mail hits, all subscribers try to sell before each other, creating what we have seen.

So, what is the problem?

The problem, or the - almost a kind of scam – is that a) subscribers only sell to buy back immediately at lower levels, so the last one loses out and b) the public gets spammed with suggestive manipulation AFTER the subscribers have sold.

I have already seen this multiple times as a subscriber myself, and it is despicable.

Solution: Either make your analysis completely public or completely private. If you share analysis to influence the public for your subscribers’ gains and make money off it, I see a huge moral issue.

First, sorry for being a dick earlier. It was 8am here and I hadn't even gone to sleep yet. Anyway, I am still very confused as to why you see a moral issue. I see no moral issue at all. The purpose of speculation is to make money, right? I can think of no other reason to speculate. We can argue the value of speculation to a community/society, but that is a different argument.

S3052, the people who subscribe to his analysis, and the "public speculators" are all trying to make money. Everyone playing the speculation game is trying to make money, everything they do will be with this purpose. This is evident to all involved, there is no information disparity.
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February 13, 2012, 05:14:14 AM
 #43

Congratulations, S3052.
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February 13, 2012, 05:35:40 AM
 #44

If you share analysis to influence the public for your subscribers’ gains and make money off it, I see a huge moral issue.

That is all technical analysis is. In all cases, markets, etc. Ever. Period.

If you want to stop it, then the best method is to ridicule. Target the people who propound bullshit, belittle those who follow them.

I guarantee you hate triumphs over ignorance every time. We just need to muster the collective will.

It is not a science, does not claim to be a science, you cannot use scientific methods to disprove it. It is more of a religion.
Accordingly, the appropriate method for dealing with people who peddle or buy into the stuff is persecution.

Persecute the fuckers and drive them from here!!!

Posters here appear unwilling to subject themselves to the merited level of contempt and ridicule. Fools.
I will mock you as others lead you to slaughter.



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February 13, 2012, 07:16:56 AM
 #45

I'm going to sound bad for a change.

Yes, S3052 offers standard technical analysis which has been documented extensively in the trading bibliography.

Yes, technical analysis can look at a chart and give you reasons to be both bullish and bearish at any time (OK, most of the times).

Yes, S3052's subscribers probably hold relatively large amounts of BTC, since they're paying 5 BTC per month.

Yes, many of those subscribers are unstable emotionally young geeks that can react collectively with a mass mentality and, with their large BTC positioning can affect price significantly.

Yes, this is exactly the same reason why the Uncertainty Principle was established, in short saying that when the observer is "too big" in relation to the observed object, the observation alters the properties of the object.

Yes, the BTCUSD market is illiquid by all measures (compare 130K daily volume to the hundreds of billions in stock markets, or a few trillions in Forex).

Yes, for the above reasons, however honest S3052 can be in technical analysis, whatever is written in each newsletter can have an avalanche effect on the price.

Yes, this same thing has been going on for hundreds of years in every illiquid market.

So, what's new?

I would think that most readers here should give thanks for the education that they receive in markets and trading (and yes, this means taking the losses), which they probably would not be able to get anywhere else, instead of trying to put the blame on someone who tries to offer their obviously solid experience in technical analysis within the context of an immature yet market.

If you are looking for immoral things, I will offer one scenario to you, which hasn't been written explicitly in this thread: BitcoinUserXXX wants to buy 10,000 BTC for cheap, and bribes S3052 with 10% of this amount to over-emphasize a bearish outlook in the next newsletter, so the price will fall massively, say 20% and the purchase can be made with a much better price. I guess this (or something similar) is what the OP is trying to suggest. It would be immoral if there was an absolute certainty that the price would actually fall more than 10%. But there is no such certainty. It would be just another gamble, and I would not rush to assume that S3052 would be attracted to such a deal, as there is no guarantee that it will work. Bull traps and short squeezes can happen any time in such illiquid markets.

TL;DR If you're losing money, blame it on yourself. It is the best possible conclusion you can make and one of the cornerstone concepts in any kind of trading.

Fiat no more.
Δοκιμάστε το http://multibit.org - Bitcoin client τώρα και στα Ελληνικά
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February 13, 2012, 08:44:42 AM
 #46

Congratulations, S3052.

You're saying that he was the one that caused the price to go so down? I call BS. Here's my reasons for this:

- S5032 is mostly bullish in his updates. He was bullish in EVERY update until the last one. So it's safe to assume that many people bought/gone long back then, at price levels 5.5 - 6.2.
- Even with his bullishness market clearly stopped rallying, and the Starfish Rally Blocker (tm) appeared. This caused the market to go the other way. S5032 noticed it and issued an short term update, but he sure wasn't the only one to notice this (I've gone short big time before he even posted the update)
- After the last update, there was some big sell offs, that we can PARTIALLY credit to the update, but not completely. Subscribers saw the update AND current market conditions, so they acted on it.

The update accelerated the down movement, not caused it!
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February 13, 2012, 09:43:37 AM
 #47

Congratulations, S3052.

You're saying that he was the one that caused the price to go so down? I call BS. Here's my reasons for this:


S3052 claims to predict the movements - the congratulations seem quite adequate.
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February 13, 2012, 10:10:55 AM
 #48

Congratulations, S3052.

You're saying that he was the one that caused the price to go so down? I call BS. Here's my reasons for this:


S3052 claims to predict the movements - the congratulations seem quite adequate.

In that case - yes. But there are unite a few people around here that seem to think that he is "the manipulator" and his analysis moves the market in whatever direction he wants it to, which is BS.
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March 11, 2012, 03:51:59 PM
 #49

Every analysis we do, be it for subscribers only or for the public contains unbiased analysis based on technical analysis methods, and this can be verified by the charts we display. If anyone disagrees with our analysis, they are all free to post their alternative.
Technicial analysys is the one. Not always adequate. You are patalogic bull. Your recent change of short term to DOWN was two or three weeks after it was obviously went to down. I dont say about your trend markers during Jul-Nov downtrend.

And manipulation is the two. The spikes in a way of your "prediction" are happened after minutes of mail with update received.

So the scheme of insider trading is obvious:

1. Open position
2. Issue short term update
3. Take profit

This does not depend whether you issued correct prediction or not. Looks like most of subscribers are stupid and just follow "predictions" blindly.

This is actually no longer a technicial task of prediction, but competition who will be the first in reading your update.

Fuck this.
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March 11, 2012, 03:55:04 PM
 #50


This is actually no longer a technicial task of prediction, but competition who will be the first in reading your update.

Fuck this.
That is how all technical analysis works.

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March 11, 2012, 03:58:50 PM
 #51

That is how all technical analysis works.
Not in such volumes.

Market needs other analysts to get this manipulator fuck out of his throne.
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March 11, 2012, 04:05:35 PM
 #52

That is how all technical analysis works.
Not in such volumes.

Market needs other analysts to get this manipulator fuck out of his throne.

Waveaddict is doing a great job in my opinion.  He has told me many times to be disciplined and that sometimes the best move is to stay out of the market.  No crazy RALLY or CRASH short term updates over here.
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March 11, 2012, 04:40:12 PM
 #53

I know, I subscribed for both S3052 and waveaddict. And fuck the 1st one. Let him to choke with his newsletter.
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March 11, 2012, 05:06:45 PM
 #54

Congratulations, S3052.

You're saying that he was the one that caused the price to go so down? I call BS. Here's my reasons for this:


S3052 claims to predict the movements - the congratulations seem quite adequate.

In that case - yes. But there are unite a few people around here that seem to think that he is "the manipulator" and his analysis moves the market in whatever direction he wants it to, which is BS.

I agree with you.
The bitcoin market is small, but way to big for my analysis to move the market in any significant way. The forecast only works if the analysis is spot on. I have observed  that if my forecast is wrong, the market tells me quickly.
Fortunately my analysis is more right that wrong.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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March 11, 2012, 05:57:08 PM
 #55

I agree with you.
The bitcoin market is small, but way to big for my analysis to move the market in any significant way. The forecast only works if the analysis is spot on. I have observed  that if my forecast is wrong, the market tells me quickly.
Fortunately my analysis is more right that wrong.


It's probably been a reaction to all the haters, but you sure have grown much more cocky in the year+ I've been observing you S3052.  You should consider slowing your roll a little before you make a big slip.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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March 11, 2012, 06:10:39 PM
 #56

I agree with you.
The bitcoin market is small, but way to big for my analysis to move the market in any significant way. The forecast only works if the analysis is spot on. I have observed  that if my forecast is wrong, the market tells me quickly.
Fortunately my analysis is more right that wrong.


It's probably been a reaction to all the haters, but you sure have grown much more cocky in the year+ I've been observing you S3052.  You should consider slowing your roll a little before you make a big slip.

Thanks for the feedback. I have to admit that I got a bit too emotional...


EDIT. And you are also right that it is normal to have some haters. And I have observed that these appear typically around major changing points.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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March 11, 2012, 09:23:39 PM
 #57

Every single observing (and otherwise participatory) entity manipulates all the time whether it observes the manipulation or not.  This is the basis of the creation of reality, if the observer is the creator, and that is precisely what economic markets model, albeit at a level abstracted above the physical universe (Of course, it is still technically physical, because it consists of information, and information is subject to the laws of physics).  I predict that economics will be the proverbial foot-in-the-door to the next quantum jump in virtualization of existence (it is related to Kaballah also, but I do not yet have the sufficient knowledge of the occult to accurately explain my thoughts on this at this point).

"Do as thou Wilt shall be the whole of the Law -- Love is the Law:  Love under Will".

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March 12, 2012, 10:04:42 AM
 #58

(it is related to Kaballah also, but I do not yet have the sufficient knowledge of the occult to accurately explain my thoughts on this at this point).

"Do as thou Wilt shall be the whole of the Law -- Love is the Law:  Love under Will".

I expect many would like to Know whether you Will Dare to (pretty please?) Be Silent.

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March 12, 2012, 10:12:50 AM
 #59

I see. It will obtain stability if it becomes large enough. The Forex is massive compared the the GDP of the most developed countries, and even with all that speculation the fiat currencies are relatively stable.

Speculation adds stability. I can only imagine how volatile Bitcoin would be without it.

+1

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March 12, 2012, 10:38:08 AM
 #60

(it is related to Kaballah also, but I do not yet have the sufficient knowledge of the occult to accurately explain my thoughts on this at this point).

"Do as thou Wilt shall be the whole of the Law -- Love is the Law:  Love under Will".

I expect many would like to Know whether you Will Dare to (pretty please?) Be Silent.

-MarkM- (Grand Poohbah of the AntiBobulated ComBobuMat.)


I have my Official, Divine, All-Inclusive Excuse as well.

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