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Author Topic: A Stonewall Example of Market Manipulation/Engineering?  (Read 3036 times)
piramida
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June 03, 2014, 03:40:41 PM
 #21

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But it isn't due to 'the free market' as Adam Smith intended it. This is whale ramping and chart formation engineering in a cornered market.

It's a zero-sum game. For you to win someone else has to loose.

It isn't and they don't. I sell BTC to you because you want BTC and I want to buy a car. You get the BTC you want. I get the car I want. We both win.

good point; zero-sum only if you consider btc itself as having no value.

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June 03, 2014, 03:42:28 PM
 #22

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But it isn't due to 'the free market' as Adam Smith intended it. This is whale ramping and chart formation engineering in a cornered market.

It's a zero-sum game. For you to win someone else has to loose.

It isn't and they don't. I sell BTC to you because you want BTC and I want to buy a car. You get the BTC you want. I get the car I want. We both win.

I was talking purely in the sense of trading against a counterparty. You're alluding to overcoming the 'double coincidence of wants'.

Cheers

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MatTheCat (OP)
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June 03, 2014, 03:47:49 PM
 #23

good point; zero-sum only if you consider btc itself as having no value.

BTC is worth what I can get for it. What I can get for it is directly related to it's USD value. It is a zero sum game. Someone has to pay.

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June 03, 2014, 04:08:47 PM
 #24

good point; zero-sum only if you consider btc itself as having no value.

BTC is worth what I can get for it. What I can get for it is directly related to it's USD value. It is a zero sum game. Someone has to pay.

In a FOREX sense; trading BTC/USD currency pair against a counterparty, yes.

Lower volatility will come with market depth.

Organic price appreciation will come with adoption (transactions)


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June 03, 2014, 04:29:47 PM
 #25

For the reasons I describe in my opening post, this bullish cup n handle formation has come about in a very strange and inorganic fashion. Even permabulls who were watching the action and were aware of the temporary swap rate hike on Bitfinex are smelling fish.

You may be referring to me as one of the permabills (which I am). I did initially speculate something fishy with the swaps, ie that someone scooped up all the USD swap offers on bitfinex and held them briefly, the purpose being to prevent the price from rebounding after a flash crash (high 600s to low 600s, two days ago). But as I thought about it more, it seems unlikely that it would be a very effective strategy. There is simply too much volume on other markets; I think soaking up the swaps would not be strong enough to control the market, even for a short period of time.

The reason I thought of it in the first place was that I needed an explanation of why the USD swap offers would be disappearing during a flash crash, which means that people are selling BTC rather than buying it. But then I thought of what I think is a more plausible and less nefarious explanation: the flash crash triggered a great big slew of limit buy orders, and THOSE are what soaked up the USD swaps. Duhhh! Makes perfect sense, and I don't know why I didn't think of it the first time around ...  Roll Eyes

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June 03, 2014, 04:35:23 PM
 #26

Everyone else is affected by whatever circumstance a single trader cries about. Adapt or die.

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T.Stuart
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June 03, 2014, 06:50:53 PM
 #27


...positive buy signal after positive buy signal, which eventually ignites the market into action...


Mat a new bull market is now building.

In a bull market the most sudden, unexpected movements are often upwards.

It's just the natural unfolding of the market. No underlying plan being implemented by a couple of whales to see here.

                                                                               
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June 03, 2014, 07:08:35 PM
 #28

...
BTC is worth what I can get for it. What I can get for it is directly related to it's USD value. It is a zero sum game. Someone has to pay.


No it's not. It's a technical innovation with the potential to unleash massive efficiency gains for humanity. Tech advances are what drive civilization forward, and are not zero-sum.


Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
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June 03, 2014, 07:17:08 PM
 #29

All trading is about figuring out what the big players are doing, or trying to do, and exploiting them. Since they deal in large positions they are hamstrung by liquidity issues and their actions move the markets; this allows the smart smaller players to extract value from them. It's like being a sucker-fish on a whale or shark.

 

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June 04, 2014, 12:46:00 AM
 #30

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But it isn't due to 'the free market' as Adam Smith intended it. This is whale ramping and chart formation engineering in a cornered market.

It's a zero-sum game. For you to win someone else has to loose.

It isn't and they don't. I sell BTC to you because you want BTC and I want to buy a car. You get the BTC you want. I get the car I want. We both win.

I was talking purely in the sense of trading against a counterparty. You're alluding to overcoming the 'double coincidence of wants'.

Cheers

he actually still loses. you got bitcoin, likely to appreciate greatly. he got a car. it will depreciate to nearly nothing in ten years.
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June 04, 2014, 01:43:32 AM
 #31

I am convinced that we are going up

Mat, you are the best contrarian indicator ever.
MatTheCat (OP)
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June 04, 2014, 02:11:34 AM
 #32

I am convinced that we are going up

Mat, you are the best contrarian indicator ever.


Don't worry. I folded my hand at $658. $10 loss per BTC.

But this is just a correction, of that I am sure. A much needed and much overdue correction.

$700-$800 still coming around the mountain.

Kraken Account, Robbed/Emptied. Kraken say "Fuck you, its your loss": https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1559553.msg15656643#msg15656643

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June 04, 2014, 02:15:06 AM
 #33

Time to fortify the 580 bulwark?  Boo..it retreats.
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June 04, 2014, 03:01:26 AM
 #34

Am I the only person who finds this endless "whale" stuff both boring and paranoid?
No.

There are rich people who invest out there.  Their moves will affect the market more than those investing less.  It's entirely common and predictable.
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June 04, 2014, 12:09:30 PM
 #35

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But it isn't due to 'the free market' as Adam Smith intended it. This is whale ramping and chart formation engineering in a cornered market.

It's a zero-sum game. For you to win someone else has to loose.

It isn't and they don't. I sell BTC to you because you want BTC and I want to buy a car. You get the BTC you want. I get the car I want. We both win.

I was talking purely in the sense of trading against a counterparty. You're alluding to overcoming the 'double coincidence of wants'.

Cheers

he actually still loses. you got bitcoin, likely to appreciate greatly. he got a car. it will depreciate to nearly nothing in ten years.

He gets to drive babes around in a sports car for ten years. You get to stay at home watching charts on a screen.

"There is only one thing that is seriously morally wrong with the world, and that is politics. By 'politics' I mean all that, and only what, involves the State." Jan Lester "Escape from Leviathan"
piramida
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June 04, 2014, 06:16:19 PM
 #36


He gets to drive babes around in a sports car for ten years.

Bah tried that. You get bored in a month. Ten years? He'll blow his brains out in a year most.

Watching the charts, on the other hand, is never boring, because unlikes stupid babes it does tickle your imagination Smiley

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June 05, 2014, 01:03:08 AM
 #37

the more I watch the shenanigans and utter bullshit trading on the Bitcoin exchanges, the more I am convinced that we are going up, because some whale entity has decided that we are going up and he/they have the clout to ensure that we do.

Mat you converted me to this viewpoint last week, and I posted literally 5 minutes before the $680-ish crash because ... well .. it took an IQ of twelve to figure out that's right about where they dumped last time.   

Obviously being pumped and dumped.  They don't have Gox to ride the $100 differences anymore, so they have to create their own.

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