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reg
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February 15, 2012, 08:11:40 AM
 #1

to all who are more knowledgeable than me (nearly everyone)
what is the significance- if any- of the hash rate falling to between 8500 and 8000 in the last few days?
is there a lot less actual mining?
has the difficulty increased -so it takes longer?
has the profit margin gone so its not worth it?
is it a reflection of the fall in BTC to fiat?
none or all of the above?
too complicated to even try an answer?  . reg
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February 15, 2012, 09:17:46 AM
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Might well be your second to last: drop from 5.7 to 4.7$/BTC within the last few days. Might be also bad luck.

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February 15, 2012, 09:37:11 AM
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I did think of one more posative reason (in the bath).

a lot more people are catching on to the idea (started by the fed) that making your own money is a good idea! also reading a list of things the authorities aka FBI are doing goes to support Ghandi's idea
first they ignore you
then they ridicule you
then they fight you (now perhaps)
then you win.  reg
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February 15, 2012, 05:30:42 PM
 #4

to all who are more knowledgeable than me (nearly everyone)
what is the significance- if any- of the hash rate falling to between 8500 and 8000 in the last few days?

The actual hashing rate over the last few days is just as unknown now as it always has been.  Don't read much into things until it lasts a week or two.

p2pcoin: a USB/CD/PXE p2pool miner - 1N8ZXx2cuMzqBYSK72X4DAy1UdDbZQNPLf - todo
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February 15, 2012, 06:10:05 PM
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Kjj is right, don't read too much into changes over the last couple days. Difficulty is set over a two-week timeframe and there are several ways to estimate difficulty changes, none of which are extremely accurate at present. Someone could be moving a large mining operation to a new datacenter, running something on an alternate block chain, using an FPGA data center for what it's actually intended to be used for, or etc.

OrganofCorti's Neighbourhood Pool Watch - The most informative website on blockchain health
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February 15, 2012, 06:47:56 PM
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This exact same thread shows up every time the exchange rate or the block rate changes, and lots of times when neither does.

There is no such thing as The Hash Rate.  It isn't measured.  It isn't calculated.  It isn't real.

Your piddly little CPU could calculate two valid hashes in a row, but that doesn't mean that you got a temporary 5 petahash/sec upgrade.

Whenever you see a graph claiming to show a network hash rate, you need to mentally cross out the graph's title, and write in your own:

Quote
How much work I would have needed to do in the past to have a good chance of having generating these blocks myself

Note that this title is 100% past-tense, and that it makes no claims about what really did happen.

p2pcoin: a USB/CD/PXE p2pool miner - 1N8ZXx2cuMzqBYSK72X4DAy1UdDbZQNPLf - todo
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February 15, 2012, 08:46:10 PM
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yes, I also looked at past threads and the only thing about the rate that is certain is that it is uncertain what it really means. now the rate is up again only 12 hours later. I was just trying to figure what could cause such large (relatively) moves?. You are right the difficulty does not change that frequently and that much. Also I can't envision all the miners all over the world turning their rigs off on tuesday night!. Similarly the value of BTC is a consequence of hash rate not a cause and its conversion to fiat fluctuates at a lower % rate than currencies generally. Perhaps its as you say small changes in production having a disproportionate effect on the rate/time ratio. Maybe a mathematician should look again at the charts and  determine if we are crying wolf too often? .reg
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February 15, 2012, 09:05:17 PM
 #8

There is no mechanism to measure the actual hash rate of Bitcoin. One can only see the rate at which Bitcoin blocks are found and added to the blockchain. Finding blocks is random. Finding many blocks is random. The number of blocks found in 12 hours is random. Nothing to see here, stop looking before you get in trouble.

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