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Author Topic: I have a bad feeling this drop will be much worse than you guys are expecting  (Read 3424 times)
Edward50
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February 16, 2012, 08:39:44 AM
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I have an bad feeling that we will see a very bad drop this time around.

The major players / manipulators seemed to have completely exited the market. Seems they have failed trying to hold that massive $5.6 bidwall that I have spoken about in the past. I have stated that if we break $5 all hell would break loose, and I think that is what is happening right now.

I am not so certain they will spend the money trying to push up the price like they did the last time or at least not anytime soon.

Remember, we almost broke into the $1.99 range until a manipulator decided to put in a 50K bidwall at low $2's. This same person tried to prevent the drop below $5.00 recently by also placing a $50K bidwall at the last minute in the $5.2 range. I do not know if anyone watched it, but I was watching it live as he tried to prevent the drop but his bidwalls were completely sold into. What is odd this manipulator always places 50K bidwalls, I think he wants to signal that it is him, that is why he uses the 50K bidwall amount. But his bidwalls failed.


Since the manipulator(s), after spending a ridiculous amount of money trying to prevent the drop from $5.00, are completely absent from the market now makes me think they do not mind how far it drops at this point. They will easily welcome a drop into the $1's or possibly below. If they did care, why are they not trying to stop the fall right now? Why are they completely absent from the market? Just look at the damn mtgox demand, it is non-existent compared to what it was. And the price is currently what you people would consider cheap.

Not sure how many bitcoins are made new everyday now but lets assume 7,000. 7,000 bitcoins * 4 = 28,000. Do you think the small bitcoin community has $28,000 dollars a day coming into it? Or better yet $840,000 dollars a month of new cash coming into it?

Lets assume $2.00 per bitcoin, 7,000 * $2 = $14,000 a day. Do you think the bitcoin community even has $14,000 dollars new money coming into it every single day to support all these new coins? This would take $420,000 dollars a month!

Now you are probably thinking, well, most miners hold their bitcoins. Well lets assume that 2,000 coins that are mined each day are sold. $2,000 * 2 = $4000 or $120,000 a month. Does the market have coming into it $120,000 a month?

What happens with all these bitcoins that miners horde and do not sell. Lets assume 5,000 bitcoins a day are horded. Well that means after a month 150,000 bitcoins are now being saved and horded. Lets assume 3% of those coins each day want to be sold 150,000 * 3% = 4500 bitcoins a day being sold.

These numbers are just to show an example of why bitcoins even at $2.00 is way over valued. Bitcoin has still proven to be as useless as ever, even with time. Tradehill has shut down its operations. How long before Mt. Gox runs into funding options.

Nothing is new what I wrote here, we should have never went above $2.00 to begin with. Looks like the big market players are also rethinking their strategy here. They can not hold the price up artificially, they have failed every time they have done so and probably lost 10's of thousands of dollars doing it. Seems like they are able to spike the market temporarily, but it stalls and heads right back down, always making a new market Low.

I believe that the market players / manipulators wanted the price to spike to the $30's or even higher again. Like they were able to do the first time around. They failed this time at doing that and were only able to spike it to $7.2 before running into major resistance.

Market fundamentals will always play out in the long run. The manipulators do not have the unlimited funds, that even I think they have.

The only chance bitcoin will have going higher is if the manipulator, who I have been watching his markets movements since the drop from $30, decides it is time to re spike the market. He may do this because he has bought probably between 300,000 and 500,000 of bitcoins and probably still owns most of them. He is really your guys only hope for a turn around. Either that or bitcoin somehow becomes a desirable form of payment from the average joe shmoe. But don't even count on that, especially when the dollar right now is a very good form for a medium of exchange.

I am sorry to say guys that if you hold bitcoins now, expect to lose lots of your value. Expect bitcoin price to head into the $1's.



 






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trogdorjw73
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February 16, 2012, 09:06:00 AM
 #2

Let me help you out here by italicizing the points where you don't have any idea what you're talking about:

I have an bad feeling that we will see a very bad drop this time around.

The major players / manipulators seemed to have completely exited the market. Seems they have failed trying to hold that massive $5.6 bidwall that I have spoken about in the past. I have stated that if we break $5 all hell would break loose, and I think that is what is happening right now.

I am not so certain they will spend the money trying to push up the price like they did the last time or at least not anytime soon.

Remember, we almost broke into the $1.99 range until a manipulator decided to put in a 50K bidwall at low $2's. This same person tried to prevent the drop below $5.00 recently by also placing a $50K bidwall at the last minute in the $5.2 range. I do not know if anyone watched it, but I was watching it live as he tried to prevent the drop but his bidwalls were completely sold into. What is odd this manipulator always places 50K bidwalls, I think he wants to signal that it is him, that is why he uses the 50K bidwall amount. But his bidwalls failed.


Since the manipulator(s), after spending a ridiculous amount of money trying to prevent the drop from $5.00, are completely absent from the market now makes me think they do not mind how far it drops at this point. They will easily welcome a drop into the $1's or possibly below. If they did care, why are they not trying to stop the fall right now? Why are they completely absent from the market? Just look at the damn mtgox demand, it is non-existent compared to what it was. And the price is currently what you people would consider cheap.

Not sure how many bitcoins are made new everyday now but lets assume 7,000. 7,000 bitcoins * 4 = 28,000. Do you think the small bitcoin community has $28,000 dollars a day coming into it? Or better yet $840,000 dollars a month of new cash coming into it?

Lets assume $2.00 per bitcoin, 7,000 * $2 = $14,000 a day. Do you think the bitcoin community even has $14,000 dollars new money coming into it every single day to support all these new coins? This would take $420,000 dollars a month!

Now you are probably thinking, well, most miners hold their bitcoins. Well lets assume that 2,000 coins that are mined each day are sold. $2,000 * 2 = $4000 or $120,000 a month. Does the market have coming into it $120,000 a month?

What happens with all these bitcoins that miners horde and do not sell. Lets assume 5,000 bitcoins a day are horded. Well that means after a month 150,000 bitcoins are now being saved and horded. Lets assume 3% of those coins each day want to be sold 150,000 * 3% = 4500 bitcoins a day being sold.

These numbers are just to show an example of why bitcoins even at $2.00 is way over valued. Bitcoin has still proven to be as useless as ever, even with time. Tradehill has shut down its operations. How long before Mt. Gox runs into funding options.

Nothing is new what I wrote here, we should have never went above $2.00 to begin with. Looks like the big market players are also rethinking their strategy here. They can not hold the price up artificially, they have failed every time they have done so and probably lost 10's of thousands of dollars doing it. Seems like they are able to spike the market temporarily, but it stalls and heads right back down, always making a new market Low.

I believe that the market players / manipulators wanted the price to spike to the $30's or even higher again. Like they were able to do the first time around. They failed this time at doing that and were only able to spike it to $7.2 before running into major resistance.

Market fundamentals will always play out in the long run. The manipulators do not have the unlimited funds, that even I think they have.

The only chance bitcoin will have going higher is if the manipulator, who I have been watching his markets movements since the drop from $30, decides it is time to re spike the market. He may do this because he has bought probably between 300,000 and 500,000 of bitcoins and probably still owns most of them. He is really your guys only hope for a turn around. Either that or bitcoin somehow becomes a desirable form of payment from the average joe shmoe. But don't even count on that, especially when the dollar right now is a very good form for a medium of exchange.

I am sorry to say guys that if you hold bitcoins now, expect to lose lots of your value. Expect bitcoin price to head into the $1's.
Okay, I got tired after about the 10th paragraph. People have bought into BTC, yes. People have also sold lots of BTC and made lots of money. All it takes is one person with a lot of cash to prop up the entire BTC economy. Do I think there might be a millionaire out there somewhere that has been fooling around with BTC? Yup, possibly several. We don't actually know who bought BTC low, who sold high, who might have sold high and is now "propping up the price" by reentering the market, etc. I'm in agreement on some aspects (e.g. amazed at how much money people are putting into BTC), but I doubt we will head into the ones, certainly not for an extended period of time.

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February 16, 2012, 09:16:07 AM
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You shouldn't worry about who manipulates the market or not, remember that price discounts everything, or at least technical analysts believe that the current price fully reflects all information, and so because of that it represents the fair value, and should form the basis for analysis. If you think the market price reflects the sum knowledge of all participants and it's reasonable to agree to what the chart says to you. With bitcoin i've found useful to observe the four hours chart for the short term and of course the daily and weekly chart for mid-long term.


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February 16, 2012, 09:20:30 AM
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If you really wish to speak of fundamentals...

Not sure how many bitcoins are made new everyday now but lets assume 7,000. 7,000 bitcoins * 4 = 28,000. Do you think the small bitcoin community has $28,000 dollars a day coming into it? Or better yet $840,000 dollars a month of new cash coming into it?
Yes. By definition.

Miners are paying a certain amount to run their rigs. Because of the Difficulty, that amount is going to be the amount it takes to mint enough Bitcoins to pay for their electricity and equipment, plus or minus.

If there wasn't 840k$ flowing into Bitcoin in a month, in the form of the goods that keep the mining engine running, then the Difficulty wouldn't be such that the Bitcoins being generated in a month would be sold for 840k$. (This has nothing to do with mining power affecting the price, and everything to do with the price affecting mining power.)

The question you really should be asking is, "are people willing to throw as much money at this thing as miners are apparently willing to throw electricity?"

Either that or bitcoin somehow becomes a desirable form of payment from the average joe shmoe.
All that's necessary for Bitcoins to be worth $2 is for the USD value of the goods and services being traded in Bitcoins to be worth more than twice the number of bitcoins whose holders are willing to use them (i.e. aren't being hoarded). That doesn't take the average joe shmoe, although that'd certainly make it easier. That just takes some technology folks - people whose customers are at the level where Bitcoin is comprehensible and usable - adopting the thing as a payment method.

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the culture of naive fools and conmen, the former convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and the latter arriving by the busload to devour them.
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February 16, 2012, 09:38:34 AM
 #5

Expect rally in 3... 2... 1...

Wait for it.. Wait for it..


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February 16, 2012, 09:40:54 AM
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upward triangle being painted as we speak...
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February 16, 2012, 09:43:56 AM
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I have no idea what I am talking about by the way.
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February 16, 2012, 10:20:35 AM
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So... OP is either short on bitcoins or he would like to buy some $1 BTC? Or he could be right?
I hope for the latter, but tend to believe the former. I'd love to see $1 BTCs.

Now you are probably thinking, well, most miners hold their bitcoins. Well lets assume that 2,000 coins that are mined each day are sold. $2,000 * 2 = $4000 or $120,000 a month. Does the market have coming into it $120,000 a month?

What happens with all these bitcoins that miners horde and do not sell. Lets assume 5,000 bitcoins a day are horded. Well that means after a month 150,000 bitcoins are now being saved and horded. Lets assume 3% of those coins each day want to be sold 150,000 * 3% = 4500 bitcoins a day being sold.
OK. Let's looks at these two paragraphs. In the first paragraph you assume that miners only sell 2k of the 7k bitcoins that are generated each day.

In the second paragraph you basically dismiss this and say that the hoarders, for some unknown reason, start selling their bitcoins again. The 3% figure you mention amounts to 90% of the hoarded bitcoins being sold a day (5000 bitcoins are hoarded, 4500 bitcoins are sold, you say).
Selling 3% per day of a monthly earning corresponds to selling 90% of a daily earning.

So these two paragraphs can be translated to:

Quote
Let's assume miners sell only 2000 of the 7000 bitcoins they mine.

Let's assume miners sell 90% of the 5000 bitcoins they hoard.

It's not really hoarding if they're selling them is it?
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February 16, 2012, 12:40:35 PM
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February 16, 2012, 12:51:57 PM
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Edward: care to prove your point by disclosing your current position?
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February 16, 2012, 04:12:00 PM
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Edward: care to prove your point by disclosing your current position?

OP promised a price drop to $1 in October when it hit 2$. Check his posts.

If its $0.50 cents, OP will predict $0.05.
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February 16, 2012, 04:32:34 PM
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I have an bad feeling that we will see a very bad drop this time around.

As someone who stocks up on bitcoins for the long-term, I certainly hope so. Smiley


Quote
These numbers are just to show an example of why bitcoins even at $2.00 is way over valued. Bitcoin has still proven to be as useless as ever, even with time.

Your opinion is noted, although I again wonder why you're wasting time here if it's truly useless. Just go and do something more fruitful. You'll be more profitable, and you'll avoid all the hassle and grey hairs.


Quote
I am sorry to say guys that if you hold bitcoins now, expect to lose lots of your value. Expect bitcoin price to head into the $1's.

Thanks for the advice, but I intend to keep holding my savings for now. And for next month, and next year.

And for quite some time after that, actually. Grin

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The idea that deflation causes hoarding (to any problematic degree) is a lie used to justify theft of value from your savings.
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February 16, 2012, 06:07:54 PM
 #13

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=63335.0

Stan?! STAN?!?!
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February 16, 2012, 06:40:08 PM
 #14

dude, edward.. just take your profits and stay in hold meanwhile.

don't be greedy and don't overreact... i consider your warning to the bulls as bear-euphoria.
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February 16, 2012, 09:34:17 PM
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SELL SELL SELL!!!shift11oneeleven But make sure to sell cheap, so I can afford it.

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February 16, 2012, 09:35:07 PM
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I have no idea what I am talking about by the way.

Worry not, you know more than OP..
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February 17, 2012, 12:00:56 AM
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I could give a crap if the Bitcoin drops to $1.00, and here's why.

Let's say i buy 100 BTC at $1.00 a coin, which would equal $100.00 (complicated math). An hour later i'll spend or exchange the 100 BTC and they'll be worth $100.00 (give or take a few dollars). I'm not going to be holding onto coins when the price fluctuates so rapidly and i could lose a lot of money. I think it's smart to quickly buy bitcoins, and then quickly get rid of them before they lose value. Someone who stockpiles their BTC could gain a lot of money as well, but i don't think it's worth the gamble.
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February 17, 2012, 12:54:39 AM
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I wouldn't mind a price drop for a time as long as the difficulty went with it. Hopefully this will discourage enough miners so that the supply will go down and stabilize the price.

Supply will not change matter how many people mine.
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February 17, 2012, 01:15:37 AM
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I wouldn't mind a price drop for a time as long as the difficulty went with it. Hopefully this will discourage enough miners so that the supply will go down and stabilize the price. The  difficulty is so high that it is barely profitable for a small miner like me. I keep going because it is profitable though. This is my input with my limited but not ignorant knowledge of economics and bitcoin.

Difficulty will adjust so there is always (roughly) the same amount of coins coming in, only change in that is the planned reward changes.

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February 17, 2012, 03:57:47 AM
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I could give a crap if the Bitcoin drops to $1.00, and here's why.

Let's say i buy 100 BTC at $1.00 a coin, which would equal $100.00 (complicated math). An hour later i'll spend or exchange the 100 BTC and they'll be worth $100.00 (give or take a few dollars). I'm not going to be holding onto coins when the price fluctuates so rapidly and i could lose a lot of money. I think it's smart to quickly buy bitcoins, and then quickly get rid of them before they lose value. Someone who stockpiles their BTC could gain a lot of money as well, but i don't think it's worth the gamble.

valid point, but a lot of the money in the market i assume is purely speculative.  if speculators disappear --> price goes down.  price goes down--> miners leave.  miners leave--> bitcoin may die.

though i bet there will likely never be a short supply of speculators with big pockets always willing to buy at sub $1 prices.
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