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Author Topic: I have a bad feeling this drop will be much worse than you guys are expecting  (Read 3426 times)
cloon
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February 17, 2012, 07:28:12 AM
 #21

if speculators disappear --> price goes down.  price goes down--> new speculators join --> miners leave.  miners leave--> bitcoin may die.
 
for me it doesnt matter if the prize is 1 or 10 USD
, make profit while trading prize lvl irrelevant, prizeswings give profit

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February 17, 2012, 08:20:16 AM
 #22

[...]
Not sure how many bitcoins are made new everyday now but lets assume 7,000. 7,000 bitcoins * 4 = 28,000. Do you think the small bitcoin community has $28,000 dollars a day coming into it? Or better yet $840,000 dollars a month of new cash coming into it?

Lets assume $2.00 per bitcoin, 7,000 * $2 = $14,000 a day. Do you think the bitcoin community even has $14,000 dollars new money coming into it every single day to support all these new coins? This would take $420,000 dollars a month!

Now you are probably thinking, well, most miners hold their bitcoins. Well lets assume that 2,000 coins that are mined each day are sold. $2,000 * 2 = $4000 or $120,000 a month. Does the market have coming into it $120,000 a month?

[...]

theoretically 7200 coins are mined every day (1 block = 50 coins per 10 min) --> 216000 coins per month

this forum alone gets ~ 2000 new members every month.

---> ~~ 108 coins per new user

---> ~~ 500$ per new user

could just work out



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zby
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February 17, 2012, 09:02:27 AM
 #23

The real question is how much USD is now in bitcoinica coffers?  When will we see the star again?  Are the mini-rallies mostly bitcoinica fuelled or are they MtGox fuelled?
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February 17, 2012, 10:42:54 AM
 #24

[...]
Not sure how many bitcoins are made new everyday now but lets assume 7,000. 7,000 bitcoins * 4 = 28,000. Do you think the small bitcoin community has $28,000 dollars a day coming into it? Or better yet $840,000 dollars a month of new cash coming into it?

Lets assume $2.00 per bitcoin, 7,000 * $2 = $14,000 a day. Do you think the bitcoin community even has $14,000 dollars new money coming into it every single day to support all these new coins? This would take $420,000 dollars a month!

Now you are probably thinking, well, most miners hold their bitcoins. Well lets assume that 2,000 coins that are mined each day are sold. $2,000 * 2 = $4000 or $120,000 a month. Does the market have coming into it $120,000 a month?

[...]

theoretically 7200 coins are mined every day (1 block = 50 coins per 10 min) --> 216000 coins per month

this forum alone gets ~ 2000 new members every month.

---> ~~ 108 coins per new user

---> ~~ 500$ per new user

could just work out




I think an average $500 exposure in BTC is very optimistic. My guess is that most miners convert their coins way before that and new users don't keep above 50 BTC or so... which would make current prices still high. However, there's the market expectation that BTC production will be cut in half in under a year. This, however, won't stop short term speculation.

My personal target is $7+ by next February, which makes buying under $5.5 or so very attractive. As long as finances allow, I will be in buying mode. Won't bet my house on it though, as this is a rather risky "investment".

GPG ID: 7294199D - OTC ID: muyuu (470F97EB7294199D)
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