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Author Topic: automated trading  (Read 2760 times)
sgbett
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February 17, 2012, 05:40:33 PM
 #21

and another thing backtesting shmacktesting. the market is rarely if ever identical. forward test, see how many scenarios you go broke under to figure out risk, then compare this to your potential rewards. Thats all you can ever do.

Assume you are going to lose, and make sure that loss doesn't wipe you out. If you win, rinse and repeat.

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stochastic
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February 18, 2012, 05:27:46 AM
 #22

and another thing backtesting shmacktesting. the market is rarely if ever identical. forward test, see how many scenarios you go broke under to figure out risk, then compare this to your potential rewards. Thats all you can ever do.

Assume you are going to lose, and make sure that loss doesn't wipe you out. If you win, rinse and repeat.

That is partly what backtesting is for.  To calculate the drawdowns in the past and how that impacts your money.  If you don't think history repeats itself then you probably don't want to be using technical analysis.

Introducing constraints to the economy only serves to limit what can be economical.
naima53
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February 19, 2012, 04:12:22 PM
 #23

"gut feeling" - the best indicator.  Grin  But seriously, the technical analysis + graphic shapes + sending large player + count words on this forum (such as "down" 15 times "up" - 2 times, "dump" - four times, "Rally" - 0 times, "rocket" 1 times  = TREND MOOD DOWN) is already in use I think  Wink

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copumpkin
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February 19, 2012, 05:29:25 PM
 #24

This sounds like a really bad idea...

Edit: I'm not at all opposed to automated trading on principle, even in bitcoin. But this particular instance sounds like it will end in tears
pirateat40
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February 19, 2012, 05:43:52 PM
 #25

When I took Java, I made a program that emulated a magic 8 ball. Do you want me to PM you the code?

Here's some Ruby to do that:

class Array
  def random_element
    self[rand(self.length)]
  end
end

['Yes', 'No', 'Maybe So', 'Ask again'].random_element

LOL

gewure
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February 19, 2012, 06:47:11 PM
 #26

"gut feeling" - the best indicator.  Grin  But seriously, the technical analysis + graphic shapes + sending large player + count words on this forum (such as "down" 15 times "up" - 2 times, "dump" - four times, "Rally" - 0 times, "rocket" 1 times  = TREND MOOD DOWN) is already in use I think  Wink

we also thought about doing a mood indicator also, but we thought about a more empirical way of doing it Wink

like: our bot discloses a selection of very strong signals to the public (if the bot works, i guess it will work even better if many ppl read the signals) which only burden in order to optain the signal is to tell us how they feel. you tell us your emotion on the market, we tell you when our bot decides to switch trends.
Seal
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February 23, 2012, 05:29:51 AM
 #27

This sounds like a really bad idea...

Edit: I'm not at all opposed to automated trading on principle, even in bitcoin. But this particular instance sounds like it will end in tears

Good luck gewure. I have written an automated trading system and it works pretty well. The benefits of using an automated trading system is that it removes the largest bias that will affect anybody's trading methodology... human emotion.

If you design a system that is in effect correct 51% of the time and you code something up to trade on it consistently; let it run and let the easy money flow into your accounts without you having to move your fingertips.

Those who typically design automated trading systems will aim to be correct >51% of the time which isn't too difficult. There are hundreds of different methods and tactics that can be used to gain small margins here and there a few of which have already been talked about in this thread. Add some code to a handful of them and you will have a very effective trading system which will have the capability of pulling small profits upon each trade.

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