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Author Topic: Martingale System  (Read 11343 times)
chaosPT
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July 03, 2014, 06:09:46 PM
 #161

I have been told that martingale end up with losing everything  Sad
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Harley997
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July 04, 2014, 07:40:01 AM
 #162

If this did really work there would be no gambling sites because they would be bankrupt because everyone would be using this method.
Gambling sites do lose a lot of money due to people gambling using the Martingale system. In fact, the majority of people who use the Martingale system properly will make money. There are gambling sites that have more losing days than winning days because they have a lot of customers who are using Martingale correctly.

Of course, they win a lot more. And when they have winning days, the amounts they win are *much* greater than the amounts they lose. That's what Martingale does. It's like a reverse lottery where the house gives you $1, but one in a million times they blow up your house, kill your children, and cut off a few of your fingers. (Perhaps the Hunger Games are a better analogy.)



I would dispute this. If the house has an edge of n% then on average the house will make n% off of every bet that is wagered assuming that the gambler is not somehow cheating or manipulating the system

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July 04, 2014, 09:13:29 AM
 #163

If this did really work there would be no gambling sites because they would be bankrupt because everyone would be using this method.
Gambling sites do lose a lot of money due to people gambling using the Martingale system. In fact, the majority of people who use the Martingale system properly will make money. There are gambling sites that have more losing days than winning days because they have a lot of customers who are using Martingale correctly.

Of course, they win a lot more. And when they have winning days, the amounts they win are *much* greater than the amounts they lose. That's what Martingale does. It's like a reverse lottery where the house gives you $1, but one in a million times they blow up your house, kill your children, and cut off a few of your fingers. (Perhaps the Hunger Games are a better analogy.)


Well, if I am going to make one 98% bet every day for 100 days in PD, I could expect to have 98 "winning days" and only 2 "losing days" on average, but at the same time expect to lose 1% of my bet amount due to the 1% house edge.  Smiley

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July 04, 2014, 09:20:42 AM
 #164

I don't gamble but I've seen friends online lose a lot of money using martingale on dice
Usually starts with "oh hey look at me making lots of money with this cool new method"
Ends up losing a ton of money
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July 04, 2014, 08:05:31 PM
 #165

I have been told that martingale end up with losing everything  Sad

People usually do because they don't quit whilst they're ahead and get greedy and keep going until they've lost it all.
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July 04, 2014, 08:53:59 PM
 #166

I have been told that martingale end up with losing everything  Sad

People usually do because they don't quit whilst they're ahead and get greedy and keep going until they've lost it all.

The first bet that you win you are ahead.  Most people will not quit after winning just one bet.

Try martingale on PD during Happy Hour and see how hard it is to get to 50K.  I tried for 3 happy hours and finally succeeded only to have the autobet continue 7 more rounds and lose almost everything.
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July 04, 2014, 10:07:09 PM
 #167

I have been told that martingale end up with losing everything  Sad

People usually do because they don't quit whilst they're ahead and get greedy and keep going until they've lost it all.
Well the thing is that with martingale gamblers will need to go from potentially being up a small amount to being down a lot to make up their last lost bet

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July 05, 2014, 03:05:06 AM
 #168

I have been told that martingale end up with losing everything  Sad

People usually do because they don't quit whilst they're ahead and get greedy and keep going until they've lost it all.
Well the thing is that with martingale gamblers will need to go from potentially being up a small amount to being down a lot to make up their last lost bet

It starts well and ends terrible...that's usually how martingale works
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July 05, 2014, 03:25:11 AM
 #169

I have been told that martingale end up with losing everything  Sad

People usually do because they don't quit whilst they're ahead and get greedy and keep going until they've lost it all.
Well the thing is that with martingale gamblers will need to go from potentially being up a small amount to being down a lot to make up their last lost bet

It starts well and ends terrible...that's usually how martingale works

But if it starts well, then why not stop and then do it again.

Build the balance in small increments or cash out each time so it adds up?
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July 05, 2014, 08:37:55 AM
 #170

I have been told that martingale end up with losing everything  Sad

People usually do because they don't quit whilst they're ahead and get greedy and keep going until they've lost it all.
Well the thing is that with martingale gamblers will need to go from potentially being up a small amount to being down a lot to make up their last lost bet

It starts well and ends terrible...that's usually how martingale works

But if it starts well, then why not stop and then do it again.

Build the balance in small increments or cash out each time so it adds up?

As I said above, you're up after 1 winning bet.  But who quits after 1 bet?  The answer is nobody.  The second bet might very well be the one that breaks your bank.  If you cash it out the odds are in casino's favor so you will most likely go bust before earning back your initial roll-out.
Farmer17
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July 05, 2014, 03:17:48 PM
 #171


It starts well and ends terrible...that's usually how martingale works

But if it starts well, then why not stop and then do it again.

Build the balance in small increments or cash out each time so it adds up?

And eventually, you would just lose all your balance with a long losing streak.

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July 05, 2014, 03:27:35 PM
 #172


It starts well and ends terrible...that's usually how martingale works

But if it starts well, then why not stop and then do it again.

Build the balance in small increments or cash out each time so it adds up?

And eventually, you would just lose all your balance with a long losing streak.
Cashing out or building it in small increments doesn't help at all,  it does not affect the variance and in some time, you will eventually bust.

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July 05, 2014, 03:29:47 PM
 #173

Cashing out or building it in small increments doesn't help at all,  it does not affect the variance and in some time, you will eventually bust.

It will just cost you more tx fee for your withdrawals and re-deposits. Smiley

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July 05, 2014, 03:38:21 PM
 #174


It starts well and ends terrible...that's usually how martingale works

But if it starts well, then why not stop and then do it again.

Build the balance in small increments or cash out each time so it adds up?

And eventually, you would just lose all your balance with a long losing streak.

Hence a good strategy is use martingale and stop while you are ahead.
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July 05, 2014, 03:42:17 PM
 #175


It starts well and ends terrible...that's usually how martingale works

But if it starts well, then why not stop and then do it again.

Build the balance in small increments or cash out each time so it adds up?

And eventually, you would just lose all your balance with a long losing streak.

Hence a good strategy is use martingale and stop while you are ahead.

It is possible, although slim to lose out in the short run, there is still a small risk to bust.

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July 05, 2014, 03:48:55 PM
 #176

Hence a good strategy is use martingale and stop while you are ahead.
It is possible, although slim to lose out in the short run, there is still a small risk to bust.

Exactly.
And after you stop with a little bit profit today, you would likely come back tomorrow and repeat the process again and again to get some "easy profit"...

It is unlikely to encounter a long losing streak if you just play a handful of bets. But if you keep betting again and again, the chance will become larger and larger...


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July 05, 2014, 06:48:09 PM
 #177

If this did really work there would be no gambling sites because they would be bankrupt because everyone would be using this method.
Gambling sites do lose a lot of money due to people gambling using the Martingale system. In fact, the majority of people who use the Martingale system properly will make money. There are gambling sites that have more losing days than winning days because they have a lot of customers who are using Martingale correctly.

Of course, they win a lot more. And when they have winning days, the amounts they win are *much* greater than the amounts they lose. That's what Martingale does. It's like a reverse lottery where the house gives you $1, but one in a million times they blow up your house, kill your children, and cut off a few of your fingers. (Perhaps the Hunger Games are a better analogy.)

I would dispute this. If the house has an edge of n% then on average the house will make n% off of every bet that is wagered assuming that the gambler is not somehow cheating or manipulating the system
That is not inconsistent with what I said at all. It is absolutely true that if the house edge is n%, then the house's expected profit will be n% of the total amount wagered.

It's like solo mining versus pool mining at a low hash rate. The one thing that doesn't change is your expected return as a function of your hash rate. However, you can change the variance drastically.

Progressive betting systems allow gamblers to change the variance so much that the house loses money on more days than they make money. Of course, their average is still positive, the variance just becomes enormous.

Imagine if 99 days out of 100, the house loses $1,000, but one day out of 100, the house makes $1,000,000. That pattern shows the house losing most of the time but nevertheless having an expected profit on each wager. If all or most of the wagers are coming from progressive betting systems, the house's returns can take this kind of pattern.

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InwardContour
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July 05, 2014, 07:39:16 PM
 #178


It starts well and ends terrible...that's usually how martingale works

But if it starts well, then why not stop and then do it again.

Build the balance in small increments or cash out each time so it adds up?

And eventually, you would just lose all your balance with a long losing streak.

Hence a good strategy is use martingale and stop while you are ahead.

The amount you will be ahead will always be small when using the martingale system. You will win in increments of your minimum bet, which by definition needs to be very small.
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July 05, 2014, 11:58:58 PM
 #179


It starts well and ends terrible...that's usually how martingale works

But if it starts well, then why not stop and then do it again.

Build the balance in small increments or cash out each time so it adds up?

And eventually, you would just lose all your balance with a long losing streak.

Hence a good strategy is use martingale and stop while you are ahead.

It's a good thing to start when you're ahead - sure, but the profit from each win is so tiny that you'll only be a few satoshis ahead anyways if you stop within a safe time frame.
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July 06, 2014, 12:30:33 AM
 #180

is it really worth the try. i'm curious about it and want to try it on freebitco.in. I also found a script online.

wheres the script you found? are you still using it?

im looking for the same thing as well.
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