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Author Topic: If you're thinking buying mining hardware, read this first  (Read 88688 times)
mairusu
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June 18, 2013, 05:58:09 AM
 #241

fair enough, thanks for the insight!
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vapourminer
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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June 18, 2013, 10:53:34 AM
 #242

If the thought of spending hours and hours of constantly tinkering and improving and setting up mining computers does not appeal to you, you'll probably really regret get into this .

back in cpu/gpu days initial setup and tuning did take time, but once set up, its just blowing the dust off every few months, and updating the miner software.

now with asic, you plug it in, run the miner. blow dust out every few months.

with bfls firmware out now you can go further and tune your sc stuff (I will be doing that) but its optional.

I monitor my rigs with anubis and kanos miner.php  (I use cgminer) via a WAMP server on one of my rigs. just click one link on any of my computers/smartphones/whatever and all the stats for all my gear is there on one page.

there is no more "constant tinkering" unless you want to for the fun of it. electronics is my hobby, so...



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September 11, 2013, 11:22:34 AM
 #243

Bitcoin ASIC devices are still being developed so there's quite a bit of prices ranging from $26 or so for 333MH/s on Ebay to Cointerra with their 2 TH/s for $14,000.00  so which one should you get?  

WARNING:  if you care to look at how I come to the numbers I have on estimated difficulty and price read on, if not, skip to the... ---

------------------------------

Well if you take a look at the electricity efficiency, the cost of the device per GH, and also considering the times that these devices will arrive to you, it may help you to see the bigger picture.  Which device is likely to be the most profitable after a years time from today?

Estimations are roughly based on the following difficulty estimates (these estimates are based according to devices pre-sales and other factors including TH to Difficulty conversion rates):

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820.0

September Average: 125,000,000
October Average: 700,000,000
November Average: 840,000,000
December Average: 1,260,000,000
January Average: 1,372,000,000

After this I added the last growth between December and January, 112,000,000 per month

January   1,372,000,000
February   1,484,000,000
March   1,596,000,000
April           1,708,000,000
May           1,820,000,000
June           1,932,000,000
July           2,044,000,000
August   2,156,000,000
September   2,268,000,000

While these numbers for difficulty are likely to be fairly accurate, I would give them a +/- 300,000,000 from Oct-March on and +/- 500,000,000 from April - Sept.

Now for Price estimates:

This estimation on bitcoin value is harder to gauge because it's largely based on acceptance/demand.  The more this currency is accepted the more likely the demand will increase.  Also as the difficulty to obtain more bitcoins increases the rate in which the value increases (yes I said increases twice on purpose  Smiley).

So here's the pricing estimates based on the difficulty estimates and historical behavior to situations.  Difficulty estimates although in the long run will likely increase the value of the bitcoin.

When mining difficulty grows in difficulty at first you may notice a price drop, because many of those who have invested in mining machines want to sell some/all of their bitcoin gains to recoup the costs of the machine they invested in which increases supply (i.e. that is what I believe happened from sept 2 - today sept 10 http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv).

Bitcoin Value estimations:

September   130
October   140
November    150
December   160
January   180
February   220
March   230
April           240
May           240
June           250
July           250
August   250
September   260

Too many factors are included to give an accurate gauge with a reasonable +/-.  But you can decide for yourself how accurate you believe these numbers to be, and add or subtract accordingly.

Keep in mind these are all estimations, and are therefor likely to be 100% inaccurate for exactness in accuracy.

Ok now finally the fun part the results:

Depending on how much you can afford, or want to, will determine which rout you may want to go:

                               Cost        GH Rate      Month available      3 Months Revenue      Revenue in 1 year      ROI (100% = break even)
USB Miner                  $28           .333           Now (Sept)                  $3.86                          $9.23              33%
Mining W/ Hosting       $249           25             December                    $155                        $494                199%
BFL                          $4,680        600            February                     $3,970                    $9,496               203%
KNCMiner                  $4,999        400            November                    $3,888                    $8,856               177%
Cointerra                 $13,999       2,000          December                    $12,400                  $39,570              283%

Also it may be good to note, that if Bitcoins continues to become increasingly valuable, in 2017 I expect a large jump in price as the populace realizes that coins are going to be even more difficult to find as they did in 2013 (but maybe this time with a little less volatility due to past experience in the change).

I personally would recommend cointerra if you can afford it because of the ROI and its energy efficiency.  Otherwise I'd consider looking at the link below for the Mining w/ hosting since you can get basically get the quantity you desire.



Links:
USB Miner $28
Mining w/ hosting $249
BFL $4,680
$4,999
[url=http://cointerra.com/product/terraminer-iv-2ths/]Cointerra
$13,999
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September 14, 2013, 08:07:00 AM
 #244

Always bet on GPU first then more specific. Even the specific fails, You still have GPU to do other things.
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September 18, 2013, 07:50:44 PM
 #245

Good thought from you, you just save my ass.

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September 20, 2013, 06:13:39 PM
 #246

Thanks
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September 23, 2013, 01:42:02 AM
 #247

Does everyone agree with Delmonger's assessment of Cointerra's hardware profitability?

Seems very nice if it's attainable.

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September 23, 2013, 11:58:25 AM
 #248

OCed 5870 running phoenix

How much does one of these cost now?

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Sitarow
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September 23, 2013, 03:02:25 PM
 #249

Bitcoin ASIC devices are still being developed so there's quite a bit of prices ranging from $26 or so for 333MH/s on Ebay to Cointerra with their 2 TH/s for $14,000.00  so which one should you get?  

WARNING:  if you care to look at how I come to the numbers I have on estimated difficulty and price read on, if not, skip to the... ---

------------------------------

Well if you take a look at the electricity efficiency, the cost of the device per GH, and also considering the times that these devices will arrive to you, it may help you to see the bigger picture.  Which device is likely to be the most profitable after a years time from today?

Estimations are roughly based on the following difficulty estimates (these estimates are based according to devices pre-sales and other factors including TH to Difficulty conversion rates):

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820.0

September Average: 125,000,000
October Average: 700,000,000
November Average: 840,000,000
December Average: 1,260,000,000
January Average: 1,372,000,000

After this I added the last growth between December and January, 112,000,000 per month

January   1,372,000,000
February   1,484,000,000
March   1,596,000,000
April           1,708,000,000
May           1,820,000,000
June           1,932,000,000
July           2,044,000,000
August   2,156,000,000
September   2,268,000,000

While these numbers for difficulty are likely to be fairly accurate, I would give them a +/- 300,000,000 from Oct-March on and +/- 500,000,000 from April - Sept.

Now for Price estimates:

This estimation on bitcoin value is harder to gauge because it's largely based on acceptance/demand.  The more this currency is accepted the more likely the demand will increase.  Also as the difficulty to obtain more bitcoins increases the rate in which the value increases (yes I said increases twice on purpose  Smiley).

So here's the pricing estimates based on the difficulty estimates and historical behavior to situations.  Difficulty estimates although in the long run will likely increase the value of the bitcoin.

When mining difficulty grows in difficulty at first you may notice a price drop, because many of those who have invested in mining machines want to sell some/all of their bitcoin gains to recoup the costs of the machine they invested in which increases supply (i.e. that is what I believe happened from sept 2 - today sept 10 http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv).

Bitcoin Value estimations:

September   130
October   140
November    150
December   160
January   180
February   220
March   230
April           240
May           240
June           250
July           250
August   250
September   260

Too many factors are included to give an accurate gauge with a reasonable +/-.  But you can decide for yourself how accurate you believe these numbers to be, and add or subtract accordingly.

Keep in mind these are all estimations, and are therefor likely to be 100% inaccurate for exactness in accuracy.

Ok now finally the fun part the results:

Depending on how much you can afford, or want to, will determine which rout you may want to go:

                               Cost        GH Rate      Month available      3 Months Revenue      Revenue in 1 year      ROI (100% = break even)
USB Miner                  $28           .333           Now (Sept)                  $3.86                          $9.23              33%
Mining W/ Hosting       $249           25             December                    $155                        $494                199%
BFL                          $4,680        600            February                     $3,970                    $9,496               203%
KNCMiner                  $4,999        400            November                    $3,888                    $8,856               177%
Cointerra                 $13,999       2,000          December                    $12,400                  $39,570              283%

Also it may be good to note, that if Bitcoins continues to become increasingly valuable, in 2017 I expect a large jump in price as the populace realizes that coins are going to be even more difficult to find as they did in 2013 (but maybe this time with a little less volatility due to past experience in the change).

I personally would recommend cointerra if you can afford it because of the ROI and its energy efficiency.  Otherwise I'd consider looking at the link below for the Mining w/ hosting since you can get basically get the quantity you desire.



Links:
USB Miner $28
Mining w/ hosting $249
BFL $4,680
$4,999
[url=http://cointerra.com/product/terraminer-iv-2ths/]Cointerra
$13,999


In case you missed it.

I have taken the time to project what the network difficulty will be when these pre-order's are expected to begin shipping.

The difficulty dates selected are from the manufacturer's expected shipping date start. The numbers are based from a low Network Difficulty Increase of 20% every 12 Days.



And as always here is the link to the updated estimate both 20% and 30% increases.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmeuPljmUNHCdEpqX2RmMDFwemJyLURVUWFtZ3J3aGc&usp=sharing
 

You can follow along here as it is updated every difficulty increase. Plan to see a normal 30% difficulty increase every 10 or so days for the foreseeable future.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=273264.msg2929060#msg2929060
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September 23, 2013, 03:09:25 PM
 #250

Everyone should go back and re-read the OP.  Mentally replace GPU with ASIC in that post... that's the same kind of "the sky is falling" stuff we are seeing now with ASICs.  How'd that GPU mining turn out for those that invested in it back in 2011?

If you're searching these lines for a point, you've probably missed it.  There was never anything there in the first place.
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September 23, 2013, 03:17:00 PM
 #251

Everyone should go back and re-read the OP.  Mentally replace GPU with ASIC in that post... that's the same kind of "the sky is falling" stuff we are seeing now with ASICs.  How'd that GPU mining turn out for those that invested in it back in 2011?


The equation is simple.

If you have fiat capital that you wish to exchange for Bitcoin, then history has shown that you get more Bitcoin buying it at market rate, rather then expected Bitcoin return from mining.

Remember that unlike GPU's the ASIC hardware being sold at premium rates have no other use.

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September 23, 2013, 06:21:26 PM
 #252

Everyone should go back and re-read the OP.  Mentally replace GPU with ASIC in that post... that's the same kind of "the sky is falling" stuff we are seeing now with ASICs.  How'd that GPU mining turn out for those that invested in it back in 2011?


The equation is simple.

If you have fiat capital that you wish to exchange for Bitcoin, then history has shown that you get more Bitcoin buying it at market rate, rather then expected Bitcoin return from mining.

Remember that unlike GPU's the ASIC hardware being sold at premium rates have no other use.



Over what time frame are you referring to, though?  Depending on the time frame, mining can return more than buying... I agree that if you take the entirety of Bitcoin history as a whole, you are correct.  Will that statement hold true in the future?  Who knows...

If you're searching these lines for a point, you've probably missed it.  There was never anything there in the first place.
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September 23, 2013, 10:04:28 PM
 #253

Everyone should go back and re-read the OP.  Mentally replace GPU with ASIC in that post... that's the same kind of "the sky is falling" stuff we are seeing now with ASICs.  How'd that GPU mining turn out for those that invested in it back in 2011?


The equation is simple.

If you have fiat capital that you wish to exchange for Bitcoin, then history has shown that you get more Bitcoin buying it at market rate, rather then expected Bitcoin return from mining.

Remember that unlike GPU's the ASIC hardware being sold at premium rates have no other use.



Over what time frame are you referring to, though?  Depending on the time frame, mining can return more than buying... I agree that if you take the entirety of Bitcoin history as a whole, you are correct.  Will that statement hold true in the future?  Who knows...

Coming from you that's hardly impartial now is it?  Also with over 50% of total coins mined under which conditions do you believe mining will return more in the future?
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January 02, 2014, 12:58:55 AM
 #254

I see a lot of the powerful ASICs that can get you a lot of Bitcoins are all for pre-order right now. Since they won't be available for a few months I'm not very interested in them. A lot of the ASICs available for purchase right now are not very powerful and I'm not sure if they'd be worth the investment. Does anyone know of a seller that is selling ASICs available right now for a great deal?
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January 02, 2014, 01:32:08 AM
 #255

Once Hashfast hit the network this month,difficulty is going to skyrocket,jupiters are going to look like usb sticks i am afraid,there is 570 devices of the babyjet that are expected to hit the network anytime now,they also have upgrade modules and there is also Hashfast seriea's which i dont know how many they are shipping in batch 1

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January 03, 2014, 04:18:02 AM
 #256

Has mining BTC lost its profitability due to the high difficulty? Can people even break even with current hardware prices and difficulty level? I mean current hardware as in hardware that you can use today.
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January 03, 2014, 06:19:16 AM
 #257

Has mining BTC lost its profitability due to the high difficulty? Can people even break even with current hardware prices and difficulty level? I mean current hardware as in hardware that you can use today.

The bare minimum investment that has the potential to turn in a big profit so you can grow your mining operation exponentially bigger over time, tops at hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Even if you want to start low, your option is the pricey 10~15k miners, which won't give you enough profit to buy a new beefier miner when yours turns into the red zone of profit/powercost
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January 04, 2014, 08:27:17 PM
 #258

Some advice..
BFL 300gh card is $1,200
If i order one and mine for lets say 6 months I could get anywhere from 2-X btc..
The ROI is not a problem and im not looking to re sell this card simply a way for myself to get some BTC for the long run without just purchasing 1.2k worth?
I will hold the coins until later with a hope of a spike and if Bitcoin dies out which i don't believe will happen.. Then whatever right?

Please DO NOT Solicite Services to my PM Unless they are to support CasinoCoin.
CasinoCoin Casino - CSCGaming.com
Address: CaPbrRHe8qQeN646PXjg2PnuJNRP4uWD3H
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January 08, 2014, 05:04:27 AM
 #259

Some advice..
BFL 300gh card is $1,200
If i order one and mine for lets say 6 months I could get anywhere from 2-X btc..
The ROI is not a problem and im not looking to re sell this card simply a way for myself to get some BTC for the long run without just purchasing 1.2k worth?
I will hold the coins until later with a hope of a spike and if Bitcoin dies out which i don't believe will happen.. Then whatever right?

The only deal I see from BFL close to that is 300GH for $1500, and that is a preorder for 3 or more months from now. This is what their description shows "Pre-Order Terms: This is a pre-order. 28nm ASIC bitcoin mining hardware products are shipped according to placement in the order queue, and delivery may take 3 months or more after order. All sales are final." So since difficulty pretty much doubles by the month, you will want to do your calculations after doubling current difficulty 3 times. If your plan is to mine and wait for the price to go up then it would be worth it as long as the price does go up.
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January 08, 2014, 06:22:48 AM
 #260

Some advice..
BFL 300gh card is $1,200
If i order one and mine for lets say 6 months I could get anywhere from 2-X btc..
The ROI is not a problem and im not looking to re sell this card simply a way for myself to get some BTC for the long run without just purchasing 1.2k worth?
I will hold the coins until later with a hope of a spike and if Bitcoin dies out which i don't believe will happen.. Then whatever right?


You need to do more reading.  If your computations made sense then everybody would buy the 300GH/s card for free money, then the difficulty would skyrocket and nobody would make money.   And that's exactly what's happened, except not with BFL hardware.  Considering BFL hasn't finished tapeout yet you're looking at a May/June release on those cards.

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