SR Auction Price Speculation/Wager

[Torque]

Lastly, if we don't know, then everyone gets their deposits back 100%. We'll probably hold it a week after the auction to see any leaks.

So you haven't a clue really.  Got it.

[BetMoose]

Lastly, if we don't know, then everyone gets their deposits back 100%. We'll probably hold it a week after the auction to see any leaks.

So you haven't a clue really.  Got it.

I never said we don't know - the host resolves the bet and provides logic for the resolution - that is how the site works.

The 'lastly' part I wrote is a site policy to make sure we never have any misresolved bets as a worst-case-scenario backstop.

FYI One of our team members is in contact with someone bidding on the auction so we expect that to be our private source - that said, we do not resolve the bet until after the host; maybe the host has similar information.

Check our FAQ for more.

[akujin]

If someone is willing to pay at a  higher price than the price now, why not just slowly buy at the exchange.. or through the miners..

Miners already have contracts out. The biggest miners, that aren't pools, will be lucky to make 100 coins a day. So that would take over a year with the difficulty rising like it is.

Buying slowly at the exchanges will be quicker, but the slippage is still horrible when people start front-running you. Meaning that the volume will pick up as you buy, the price will rise as you buy, and this will encourage other people to buy. So you will not get even close to dollar cost averaging about $750 per coin by the time you get 29K BTC.

There are ~12k btc to $700 at bitstamp alone. Someone could buy it NOW If he's willing to pay >=700. Why hassle yourself with the auction and wait long for the auction date if you could buy it NOW at the exchange? You could also spread your funds across the other exchanges to get it cheaper. And I checked, bitstamp's volume for the past 3 weeks and it's at ~170k btc. If they started buying since the SR auction issue started, they would have got the 3k btc that they want without causing much price bump..

[JimboToronto]

Why hassle yourself with the auction and wait long for the auction date if you could buy it NOW at the exchange?

Because most of the bidders (according to the leaks) are financial professionals, not goofy little impatient daytraders, and might consider a bifurcated strategy of buying a large lot at auction for a fixed price, followed by a lesser but still substantial purchase at the exchanges at market price to immediately drive the price up and increase the value of their existing coins.

That shouldn't be that hard for even you to understand.

[akujin]

Why hassle yourself with the auction and wait long for the auction date if you could buy it NOW at the exchange?

Because most of the bidders (according to the leaks) are financial professionals, not goofy little impatient daytraders, and might consider a bifurcated strategy of buying a large lot at auction for a fixed price, followed by a lesser but still substantial purchase at the exchanges at market price to immediately drive the price up and increase the value of their existing coins.

That shouldn't be that hard for even you to understand.

So if they put 700 at the buy price at stamp and click the Buy button, they're now a goofy daytrader?  
I would understand them paying at a high price if this is a rare item being auctioned... but it's not... so I'm sure most of them are there for a chance to buy it at a discount