This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well

[Mobius]

100-200 BTC on p500? I think I earned too much, because they limited my maximum positions to about 1000 USD (actually 25 BTC) a few monts ago

BTW, in my country, taxes on derivatives (CFDs on bitcoin market) are lower than taxes on gains from bitcoins.

During the last bubble they lowered the available leverage(when they were using Gox) gradually from 1:17 to 1:10 to 1:5 and finally 1:2 . But after i haven´t traded there for a while (last time i used in early februar) it got reset. I just checked it again and it´s now possible for me to open up to 185BTC with a 17:1 leverage

Do you have a link to support this? I cannot speak about the leverage that they offered during the last bubble, but AFAIK they only offer 2.5:1 leverage as of now.

We were talking about Plus500 not Bitfinex, maybe you got that mixed up.

http://www.plus500.com/Instruments/btcusd

Isn't this thread about Bitfinex? I have personally never heard of plus500, but a quick look at their website shows that they offer 1:200 margin for some products, which is huge by any measure but much bigger then the 1:17 for BTC CFDs.

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[twiifm]

Anyone here have experience offering swaps on bitfinex?   I'm thinking about doing this and want to hear some real world experiences

Can PM me

[gizmoh]

Anyone here have experience offering swaps on bitfinex?   I'm thinking about doing this and want to hear some real world experiences

Can PM me

Now is the riskiest time to offer USD swaps imo.

[Habeler876]

Anyone here have experience offering swaps on bitfinex?   I'm thinking about doing this and want to hear some real world experiences

Can PM me

Now is the riskiest time to offer USD swaps imo.

Agree, though I tend to think anything more than a flash crash is unlikely, and that BFX will roll back trades if necessary to save lenders, like they have before. But still, definitely risky, and interest rates are falling, so reward becoming less and less worth it.

[BitBits]

I really think people should stop talking about trades roll back at Bitfinex as a possibility.
It happened once, it was justified and it is just not going to happen again.  For the absolutely extreme situation there will most likely be trading halt, but no roll backs.

[Yololintian]

I really think people should stop talking about trades roll back at Bitfinex as a possibility.
It happened once, it was justified and it is just not going to happen again.  For the absolutely extreme situation there will most likely be trading halt, but no roll backs.

I hope so.

[Dalmar]

I really think people should stop talking about trades roll back at Bitfinex as a possibility.
It happened once, it was justified and it is just not going to happen again.  For the absolutely extreme situation there will most likely be trading halt, but no roll backs.

It depends where the margin cascade will stop at. If it will go to double or single digits it will impact their future revenues as liquidity providers get scared away. It's in their best interest to calm them, unlike BTC-e where margin liquidity is provided in-house..

[twiifm]

Anyone here have experience offering swaps on bitfinex?   I'm thinking about doing this and want to hear some real world experiences

Can PM me

Now is the riskiest time to offer USD swaps imo.

When is the non risky time?  What should I be looking at?

[21pilot]

Anyone here have experience offering swaps on bitfinex?   I'm thinking about doing this and want to hear some real world experiences

Can PM me

Now is the riskiest time to offer USD swaps imo.

When is the non risky time?  What should I be looking at?

the best indicator for an assessment of the risk is probably the Total sum of active swaps.
You can find this information on:
https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/stats

(currently ~29.7 million $)

[twiifm]

Anyone here have experience offering swaps on bitfinex?   I'm thinking about doing this and want to hear some real world experiences

Can PM me

Now is the riskiest time to offer USD swaps imo.

When is the non risky time?  What should I be looking at?

the best indicator for an assessment of the risk is probably the Total sum of active swaps.
You can find this information on:
https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/stats

(currently ~29.7 million $)

So wait for swap sum to go down and interest go up?  Whats the ideal interest?

[21pilot]

Anyone here have experience offering swaps on bitfinex?   I'm thinking about doing this and want to hear some real world experiences

Can PM me

Now is the riskiest time to offer USD swaps imo.

When is the non risky time?  What should I be looking at?

the best indicator for an assessment of the risk is probably the Total sum of active swaps.
You can find this information on:
https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/stats

(currently ~29.7 million $)

So wait for swap sum to go down and interest go up?  Whats the ideal interest?

the major problem everyone is discussing in this thread is that the swap volume has spiked up to 31 million $ at peak, but BTC
price has stayed in a sideways market. therefore all the long positions probably aren´t profitable and have to be closed at one
point in the future if BTC price doesn´t rise.

this could lead to a flash crash at bitfinex, because the first margin calls could trigger additional margin calls...

[Walsoraj]

Is it possible for a single person, or small concerted group, to control both the shorts and longs, profitably? If so, and assuming this is the case, how should an outsider place his or her bets?

[twiifm]

Anyone here have experience offering swaps on bitfinex?   I'm thinking about doing this and want to hear some real world experiences

Can PM me

Now is the riskiest time to offer USD swaps imo.

When is the non risky time?  What should I be looking at?

the best indicator for an assessment of the risk is probably the Total sum of active swaps.
You can find this information on:
https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/stats

(currently ~29.7 million $)

So wait for swap sum to go down and interest go up?  Whats the ideal interest?

the major problem everyone is discussing in this thread is that the swap volume has spiked up to 31 million $ at peak, but BTC
price has stayed in a sideways market. therefore all the long positions probably aren´t profitable and have to be closed at one
point in the future if BTC price doesn´t rise.

this could lead to a flash crash at bitfinex, because the first margin calls could trigger additional margin calls...

I get that.  You are saying if these traders get margin called and the price crashes I might not be able to get my money back.

My question was more direct.  Just at what swap sum is acceptable risk?  And whats a good interest rate?  I know its speculation.  Just curious what the people who have experience with this thinks

[ensurance982]

That bubble won't pop anytime soon. We'd need a major crash in order to wipe out those longs. Won't happen, I guess. Unless there are some catastophic news. But I'm really not that convinced that the bubble is harming anyone as of now. Do you?

[Habeler876]

Is it possible for a single person, or small concerted group, to control both the shorts and longs, profitably? If so, and assuming this is the case, how should an outsider place his or her bets?

With Bitfinex, you're playing against the house.

Whatever you do, the odds are against you. My advice: Use price alarms, and not stops, because they will hunt your stops there every time. Shady as hell....

[FUR11]

The bubble sure is big! I'm afraid that it is too big for Finex to handle it if it really should pop or cascade through the longs there!!! This seems dangerous. Maybe they won't be able to roll back the trades then anymore!

[thezerg]

Is it possible for a single person, or small concerted group, to control both the shorts and longs, profitably? If so, and assuming this is the case, how should an outsider place his or her bets?

With Bitfinex, you're playing against the house.

Whatever you do, the odds are against you. My advice: Use price alarms, and not stops, because they will hunt your stops there every time. Shady as hell....

Huh? No, Bitfinex is not on either side of the leverage... people offer liquidity, other people take it for leverage, Bitfinex takes some % of the interest.  But Bitfinex is "insuring" the lenders (whatever that means), so only in the case of a flash-crash you might be "playing against the house"

[Marbit]

Is it possible for a single person, or small concerted group, to control both the shorts and longs, profitably? If so, and assuming this is the case, how should an outsider place his or her bets?

With Bitfinex, you're playing against the house.

Whatever you do, the odds are against you. My advice: Use price alarms, and not stops, because they will hunt your stops there every time. Shady as hell....

Huh? No, Bitfinex is not on either side of the leverage... people offer liquidity, other people take it for leverage, Bitfinex takes some % of the interest.  But Bitfinex is "insuring" the lenders (whatever that means), so only in the case of a flash-crash you might be "playing against the house"

I think he's saying that Bitfinex are stop hunting and/or front running their own customers. That's my reading of it, anyway.

I wouldn't put it past them, either....

[manfred]

Is it possible for a single person, or small concerted group, to control both the shorts and longs, profitably? If so, and assuming this is the case, how should an outsider place his or her bets?

With Bitfinex, you're playing against the house.

Whatever you do, the odds are against you. My advice: Use price alarms, and not stops, because they will hunt your stops there every time. Shady as hell....

Huh? No, Bitfinex is not on either side of the leverage... people offer liquidity, other people take it for leverage, Bitfinex takes some % of the interest.  But Bitfinex is "insuring" the lenders (whatever that means), so only in the case of a flash-crash you might be "playing against the house"

I think he's saying that Bitfinex are stop hunting and/or front running their own customers. That's my reading of it, anyway.

I wouldn't put it past them, either....

They are known for it https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=660948.msg7444385#msg7444385
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=660948.msg7444557#msg7444557

[Yololintian]

Is it possible for a single person, or small concerted group, to control both the shorts and longs, profitably? If so, and assuming this is the case, how should an outsider place his or her bets?

With Bitfinex, you're playing against the house.

Whatever you do, the odds are against you. My advice: Use price alarms, and not stops, because they will hunt your stops there every time. Shady as hell....

Huh? No, Bitfinex is not on either side of the leverage... people offer liquidity, other people take it for leverage, Bitfinex takes some % of the interest.  But Bitfinex is "insuring" the lenders (whatever that means), so only in the case of a flash-crash you might be "playing against the house"

I think he's saying that Bitfinex are stop hunting and/or front running their own customers. That's my reading of it, anyway.

I wouldn't put it past them, either....

They are known for it https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=660948.msg7444385#msg7444385
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=660948.msg7444557#msg7444557

So someone got stopped out and Bitfinex is somewhat illiquid; Also there are a lot of places people might place obvious stops. This is no evidence against Bitfinex.