Anti-mining movement with their own agenda READ ON

[Ian Maxwell]

Once spending $80/month on electricity isn't profitable, I'll spend $80/month on bitcoins instead!

[commlinx]

I think you're right, I've only met one person called Vladimir in person and he was Russian. Therefore I think this Vladimir may also be Russian. The only Russian government agency I can think of is the KGB. That means Vladimir is a KGB agent. You know it makes sense .

[allinvain]

Once spending $80/month on electricity isn't profitable, I'll spend $80/month on bitcoins instead!

Yep, that would be the smart thing to do then..and when difficulty falls, turn your mining rigs back on!

I just worry that bitcoin will be a speculators' currency...I'd really like to see it succeed as a vibrant and viable REAL currency so I can buy all kinds of junk with it. The day I will be able to pick up a kick ass Sandy Bridge gaming laptop with bitcoins is the day I will have a massive grin face

[goatpig]

I think you're right, I've only met one person called Vladimir in person and he was Russian. Therefore I think this Vladimir may also be Russian. The only Russian government agency I can think of is the KGB. That means Vladimir is a KGB agent. You know it makes sense .

He'll make soup out of your fingers, for the muddaland!

[allinvain]

lool..watch out guys...Vladimir's mining cluster will be the birthplace of Skynet...all your bitcoinz are belong to him!?

[vuce]

But why? What's your reasoning?

Exactly the same reasoning as you, but I just can't see total power tripling in the next year. I hope I'm wrong though.

In the other thread I even ran the trend assuming only 5% starting now (wholly unreasonable) and the guy who dropped $3000 + $151/month on his mining rig still wouldn't break even.

I agree, buying expensive hardware specifically for bitcoin mining is a bit ridiculous.

[Jaime Frontero]

But why? What's your reasoning?

Exactly the same reasoning as you, but I just can't see total power tripling in the next year. I hope I'm wrong though.

Really?  In a whole year?  I have a proposal for you...

I've got 10BTC says the network is at or above triple today's hashrate (712.08 Gh/s) at Bitcoin Watch, by April 27, 2012.

Bet?

In the other thread I even ran the trend assuming only 5% starting now (wholly unreasonable) and the guy who dropped $3000 + $151/month on his mining rig still wouldn't break even.

I agree, buying expensive hardware specifically for bitcoin mining is a bit ridiculous.
[/quote]

Perhaps.  It just depends on what you believe the exchange rate will be in the future.

[vuce]

Really?  In a whole year?  I have a proposal for you...

I've got 10BTC says the network is at or above triple today's hashrate (712.08 Gh/s) at Bitcoin Watch, by April 27, 2012.

Bet?

No. This is still gambling, and I don't gamble

Trippling current hashrate would barely cover electricity cost where I live (and electricity is quite cheap over here), and at this point I think growth will stop. This is my reasoning.

edit:
I still think mining should be encouraged, as it makes bitcoin more secure.

[Jaime Frontero]

Really?  In a whole year?  I have a proposal for you...

I've got 10BTC says the network is at or above triple today's hashrate (712.08 Gh/s) at Bitcoin Watch, by April 27, 2012.

Bet?

No. This is still gambling, and I don't gamble

neither do i. 

[ribuck]

No. This is still gambling, and I don't gamble

Think of it as "investing" or "managing your economy" rather than gambling.

I think the difficulty level will be well above 3 times today's level by 27 April 2012.

[deadlizard]

[vuce]

No. This is still gambling, and I don't gamble

Think of it as "investing" or "managing your economy" rather than gambling.

I think the difficulty level will be well above 3 times today's level by 27 April 2012.

if that's the case, I will make a thread and publicly announce my stupidity. Fair enough?

Anyway, all this is a bit beside the point. I believe people are not stupid and will regularly check if mining is profitable for them, this should result in fairly brief moments of mining unprofitability.

[JJG]

Anyway, all this is a bit beside the point. I believe people are not stupid and will regularly check if mining is profitable for them, this should result in fairly brief moments of mining unprofitability.

I'd agree for the most part, but it's troublesome to see people buying expensive hardware based on current difficulty ratings and expecting to pay it off in a few months. Meanwhile, the next difficulty increase occurs in 2 days and is over 16%!

[vuce]

Anyway, all this is a bit beside the point. I believe people are not stupid and will regularly check if mining is profitable for them, this should result in fairly brief moments of mining unprofitability.

I'd agree for the most part, but it's troublesome to see people buying expensive hardware based on current difficulty ratings and expecting to pay it off in a few months. Meanwhile, the next difficulty increase occurs in 2 days and is over 16%!

I totally agree with you on this one.

[deadlizard]

Meanwhile, the next difficulty increase occurs in 2 days and is over 16%!

The current ask price on mtgox is up to $2.50.
if my math is correct (and it usually isn't) thats a 25% increase in the last hour and a much larger % over the day.

The incentive to enter the market just skyrocketed. Anyone thinking of selling their old mining rigs?  

[vuce]

Meanwhile, the next difficulty increase occurs in 2 days and is over 16%!

The current ask price on mtgox is up to $2.50.
if my math is correct (and it usually isn't) thats a 25% increase in the last hour and a much larger % over the day.

The incentive to enter the market just skyrocketed. Anyone thinking of selling their old mining rigs?  

I don't think anyone is saying that in such case it isn't profitable, but price is based on speculation and throwing out several thousand dollars based on that is a bit absurd.

[Ian Maxwell]

And my point is made again. In about the time it would take someone to source a GPU, buy it, hook it up, and wrestle with drivers, the valuation of a bitcoin has nearly doubled. By just buying the coins you could have made a 100% profit in a few days instead of a year.

[Gryph]

And my point is made again. In about the time it would take someone to source a GPU, buy it, hook it up, and wrestle with drivers, the valuation of a bitcoin has nearly doubled. By just buying the coins you could have made a 100% profit in a few days instead of a year.

Thats actually pretty good. i hadn't thought of it that way.

So if i kept one bitcoin, at $1, and assumed a doubling rate of 10 days (a "few days" to be sure), then in about a year it should double 36 times. the coin would be worth 68 billion dollars.

and i didn't even have to fill my room with noise, heat, waste electricity and pollute the environment.

if we stopped mining completely. then the current 6 million coins alone would eventually be worth around ~4x10^17 dollars. We could buy out the united states with kinda money.... ofcourse there will be more coins generated so the amount is even greater.

(btw i'm just kidding about buying a country).

I think we should devote our time to making the client divide out smaller units of the coins easily. 68 billion dollars per coin already taxes the 8 decimal limit on transactions.

i'll stop mining when i get home. i have enough coins already to ensure i'll have trillions of dollars worth of value in a year or two. i can probably mine a lot more but i'm content with a few trillion dollars.  And my rig is very inefficient is puts out a lot of heat.

You guys can keep mining if you want.

[clonedone]

And my point is made again. In about the time it would take someone to source a GPU, buy it, hook it up, and wrestle with drivers, the valuation of a bitcoin has nearly doubled. By just buying the coins you could have made a 100% profit in a few days instead of a year.

The thing is that bitcoins are unstable, the value could double today, or halve by tomorrow.
a hd 6990 used is a good $600 to $650 for the next two years.
i bought the whole setup for 3 grand
I can sell my three 6990s for around $2000 if bitcoins do fail me, or if i so please for the next two years. after two years it might drop to 1.5k to 1.8k for all three
If I had bought 3 grand worth of coins, the next day they may be worth 6grand, or the next day they may be worth 1.5 grand.
who knows what the bitcoin will be worth in two years. i can tell you that the videocard will still be worth more than $500

its riskier with the coins than physical hardware. I can rely on the hardware to retain it's worth, because they have other uses than for mining.

bitcoins on the other hand so far have limited use.

If bitcoins could be used to purchase items like ipods or phones or laptops, then everything changes.
I really do hope that would happen soon. although i sadly doubt it.

im not really a bettin kinda guy and i seem to suck at trading but thats just me.

[Meni Rosenfeld]

And my point is made again. In about the time it would take someone to source a GPU, buy it, hook it up, and wrestle with drivers, the valuation of a bitcoin has nearly doubled. By just buying the coins you could have made a 100% profit in a few days instead of a year.

If I'm a prophet, sure.

But if I don't know if BTC price will rise or fall, and only know that a fall in BTC price will cause difficulty rise to slow down, so difficulty divided by price will not change much, and that at current difficulty/price buying a dedicated mining rig is insanely profitable... I choose the rig. (Plus it's satisfying and a positive externality).

I've been hearing about how mining was about to become unprofitable ever since I joined Bitcoin, but so far it didn't happen.