nrd525 Market Tracker

[unknown04]

well, I think it could reach $800 also... but not $1k yet like others say

[nrd525]

We had bull markets in Oct/Nov of 2015, Nov 2014 (or more of a bull-spike - didn't last long), and Oct/Nov 2013.  

[nrd525]

BFX swap rates are doing better than average. The USD rate is 0.1% - 0.12% / day and even the BTC rate is up to 0.035%.  Typically the USD rate is more around 0.03%/day and the BTC rate is around 0.005-0.01%/day (eg not worth it).

It looks like the USD swap lending whale is gone. They were supplying the market with up to $1 million/day and keeping rates at 0.07-0.10% during the June/July run-up.  Now I expect that the USD swap rate will head down to 0.03% in the long run, but it is a good return so long as the exchange doesn't get hacked too often...

Global bond rates are going up as investors expect a tiny bit of inflation.  So we might finally be breaking out of the era of zero interest rates.  Of course in several years, notably in the US, we could be heading for a recession - as they tend to happen every ten years or so.

So my recommendations remain - lend swap at BFX, go long BTC (and hold for 1+  years), and stay away from all alt-coins.

[nrd525]

The 777 (USD) rally looks very bullish.  It's interesting that Bitfinex's importance has diminished.  USD swaps are down to $19 million, off their recent highs of $25 million - and far below the $45 million we saw in July.  So that also means that Bitfinex could easily increase their swaps by at least $5 million, and probably by 30+ million if we have an even larger bull rally (it doesn't really depend on the price change so much as the demand that it generates for margin positions)

https://www.bfxdata.com/swaphistory/usd

[nrd525]

What do people think about the volume we're seeing?  Is it enough to sustain a healthy and continuing bull market?

The volume on Bitfinex and Bitstamp looks pretty bad - much lower than the June 2016 bull market, and the Nov 2015 bull market.

[nrd525]

The Bitcoin price just being steady at around $780 USD is very bullish.

[nrd525]

So it broke $800 USD. And an important point is that it is 15% more in Yuan and 20% more in Euros.  So nearer those all-time highs, except that the Yuan high was 10% over the USD high (after being converted at the 2013 exchange rates).

[nrd525]

Bitcoin: $820!

You'd think that the BFX token would increase in USD value as Bitcoin increases, but in fact today it is down 3.8% - and down to 51.5 cents off its 64 cent high.

As Bitcoin increases in value (it was around $600 when BFX was at 64 cents), it should mean more volume for Bitfinex (at least in USD) and more fees.

However, it could be that people are selling their BFX tokens to gamble after greater returns with Bitcoin.

So I used to think that the BFX token might be over-priced, in which case now it is more fairly priced.  I wouldn't necessarily buy it though, as it should be heavily correlated with the BTC price.  Would a BFX long position slightly decrease your risk if you are long BTC?  (For one thing it is unlikely to go above $1 - unless someone gets margin called - that would be hilarious!).

[nrd525]

Bitcoin is 88% of the market cap for crypto-currencies.  I didn't realize how big Ethereum was (900 million cap) - though declining.
https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#btc-percentage

[nrd525]

939 (at BFX).  I think we might be in a push to $1000 for the new year's =)

BFX tokens are only at 51 cents. I wonder if people are selling them to realize the capital loss from the Bitfinex hack (and use that to offset capital gains for tax purposes). I'm considering doing this (note: this isn't professional tax advice).

The low BFX USD swap rate (0.07%/day) and low amount of outstanding swaps are indicators that this isn't in full bubble mode - and also that there is more money available to fuel a bubble if speculators wanted to take more margin long positions.

[nrd525]

I sold all my BFX tokens at around 52.5 cents.  If I can get 10-20% APR lending out USD swap on bitfinex, I might get paid back faster than BFX is reimbursing the tokens.  Also I did it mostly for the capital loss (taxes).  Though I wish I could have sold at 55-60 cents.

Meanwhile - Bitcoins at $970!

The $1000 USD barrier is around the same place (converted) as 7000 Yuan. So we might bounce off that for a day or two.  Or people might not care.

Is anyone else having problems with timeouts with websockets at Bitfinex?  I fixed it by logging out and then back in.

[nrd525]

$1000 (or $1005 on BFX).   It's a good example of Bitcoin following a trend or meme ($1000 for the New Year's), rather than fundamentals. The fundamentals are good, but not that much greater than over the past year.  I'm very concerned about the block size limiting transactions and likely future developer drama.

[nrd525]

The greater the rate of increase, the closer we are to the top. 

So we bounced off $1100 and 8000 Yuan.  It is likely that the bubbles/bull markets will have a slower rate of increase as the price increases (as a 10% increase requires more funds at $1000 than at $100).   However, that doesn't explain why things are so much slower than the Fall of 2013 bubble. The difference might be partially explained by market maturity (price discovery?) and diversification in exchanges and actors.  And possibly the 2013 bubble was due to manipulation from MtGox (will we ever learn the truth?).

[nrd525]

China has surpassed ATH by 9%.  BFX still $25 short ($1150 currently).

[nrd525]

Now that's a big crash. Bitfinex went to 1166 (within $9 of ATH), and then crashed to 851.  Currently recovered to 965.

Also China markets crashed and the $100-$120 premium has reversed and currently Bitstamp and Bitfinex have a $10-$35 premium over China!

I think the bull market is over.  We don't even have SegWit and the ETF was delayed (again?).

If you zoom out, you could make the case that the entire rise from 160 to 1166 is just the first Elliott Wave - but I don't think it fits that model, and I think speculators with short time frames may have more influence over the price than long-term holders.  Margin-trading especially gives them more leverage.

[nrd525]

885 Bitfinex.  Now the bull market is really over. The question is how big will the retrace down be?  We could go down to 600, 400, or even 200 (less likely).  I'm guessing the retrace will be slow and it will be harder to see the general direction.  I'm thinking about the 2014-2015 bear market which had several places where it was very bullish or at least looked like the price would stabilize.

[nrd525]

USD swap rates on BFX are going up.  Possibly more due to the USD swaps not automatically renewing (long-standing bug that appears to be worse now) than due to demand.  For instance, earlier today we had $31 million in swaps and now we only have $25 million.  Support says they are working on a rewrite.  The auto-renew has been buggy for the past two years.

BTC at $917.  Possibly a good time to sell some if you are in this for the short term (eg 1 year).

[nrd525]

In January 2013, we had four weeks of relative stability around $800. And then in Feb 2013 BTC plunged to $400.

[Tzupy]

In January 2013, we had four weeks of relative stability around $800. And then in Feb 2013 BTC plunged to $400.

I think you mean 2014, not 2013. In Feb 2013 reaching 400$ was a permabull's dream.

[nrd525]

Oops, 2014!

And how about that $160 drop today?  So much for "stability".