nrd525 Market Tracker

[nrd525]

PM me if you want to send me a BTC (or other) donation =)

$3645 (Coinbase/Bitstamp).

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[1714037668]

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[nrd525]

New low $3450.  Ha, I was going to post that the previous low looked like it might hold for a while.  3k might not hold (of course me saying 3k might not hold is a sign of capitulation).

I still think the altcoins need to decouple a bit more (and drop in price) vs bitcoin.  Though in the last bull market the alts peaked after bitcoin, so they could bottom before or after bitcoin does.  (I'd been thinking they'd do it before - but that might be weak reasoning).

[nrd525]

Tone Vays endorses my 3k target!  (well 3.2k)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39GL75FNpJQ
Around the 8:20 minute mark

[nrd525]

https://medium.com/bitfinex/bitfinex-announces-tether-neutrality-and-launches-new-stablecoin-pairs-a84b7ccbfd86

I'm confused. Shouldn't Tether trade for 1 USD on Bitfinex?  Or have they finally fixed their withdrawal issues?

[nrd525]

I've placed major bid orders from 1k to 2k.

I'm not sure whether to call you an optimist or a pessimist. The odds of it going that low are minuscule.

A reminder that I was more into a 1k-2k bottom, before I went with 3k.

[nrd525]

New low $3210 (Bitstamp). 

[nrd525]

Litecoin is around 93% off its $360 high.   Maybe it never really held any authority/value for being the oldest alt-coin.  The other old alt-coins never amounted to much (Name Coin and was it Peercoin or PPC?).

The hype/news/promo makes the coin and even though Bitcoin Cash (ABC and SV) are flailing around, they are still very popular.

[nrd525]

Recently realized that I should always resist the urge to have a precise target. Target prices should always be ranges.  There are many possible floor prices which each have different probabilities.  If you do this, then you should almost always have money on the side waiting for the price to fall further (especially if you don't have a stream of new income coming in that you plan to invest).

I don't think $3210 was the bottom, but there is always a chance that it could be (say 5%).  It looks like we're crashing into the $2000s and maybe even the lower range ($2000-$2500).  I'm not sure if any of the "analysts" have any support levels in the $2000s in which case it'll be harder to bottom there.  But Bitcoin has done weird things before.  And it makes sense that we'll create some new support levels betweeen $1200 and $3000 because the range is so large.

[nrd525]

Nice bounce ($4170).  I still think we're going down to the $2000s, but I'm also not selling at this price.  Hmm, I should setup some sell targets.  Maybe starting at 8k.

[exstasie]

Nice bounce ($4170).  I still think we're going down to the $2000s, but I'm also not selling at this price.  Hmm, I should setup some sell targets.  Maybe starting at 8k.

So you think we're in a mid-term bounce, heading to $8K+? That seems reasonable. Where's the top of your selling range?

After such a steep bear run and trapping so many shorts, a push to the 200-week MA seems appropriate for maximum pain. I imagine there is a treasure trove of stops to run near $6K+, so anything $8K-$10K seems like it might be on the table.

Then probably more bear.......

[nrd525]

I was thinking 8k+ as my first sell order for the next 1-3 year bull market (it could bounce that high, but if it does it will start to look like the beginning of the new bull market as least to me).  Because one of these times the bull market is going to be a dud.  Bubbles aren't guaranteed.

BCH up 50% in the past 24 hours.  I tend to agree with Tone Vays (though not as vehemently) that we won't see the end of the bitcoin bear market until alt-coins aren't pulling off these shenanigans.  He thinks they will die, I think a lot of them are going to live and/or decline a lot slower than he expects.

[exstasie]

BCH up 50% in the past 24 hours.  I tend to agree with Tone Vays (though not as vehemently) that we won't see the end of the bitcoin bear market until alt-coins aren't pulling off these shenanigans.  He thinks they will die, I think a lot of them are going to live and/or decline a lot slower than he expects.

It's easy to feel that way taking a bird's eye view of the altcoin market. But altcoins never stopped pulling those shenanigans throughout 2014 and 2015 and the bear market still ended. So I'm skeptical about that condition.

I expect Tone Vays to remain bearish way longer than he should.

[nrd525]

Altcoins have the advantage of new coins adding to their marketcap, which is an unfair advantage if you are using the marketcap as a metric.

If you look at the original/oldest altcoins, they all died in 2014/2015  Notably Litecoin.  Bitcoin held a 80%-90% market share from Dec 2013 until Dec 2016, despite the creation of hundreds (?) of altcoins.  XRP was the big exception of 2015, but they limited their supply and had very low trading volume.

How about the 9.5% Christmas Eve dump (as of 11pm EST)?

Christmas could be interesting.

[nrd525]

Epic pump in the past 24 hours.  30 cents -> $10.
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/paragon/

[nrd525]

Will bitcoin drop below $1k in 2019.  34% Yes.
https://www.betfair.com.au/exchange/plus/financial-bets/market/1.153102227

[nrd525]

Pay vendors for 49 cents USD using ACH.

https://www.bill.com/product/pricing/

I'm surprised that someone hasn't taken on Paypal and the credit cards in a bigger way for payments.  As centralized payments (with a trusted central party) are probably the way to go.

[exstasie]

Will bitcoin drop below $1k in 2019.  34% Yes.
https://www.betfair.com.au/exchange/plus/financial-bets/market/1.153102227

Very interesting way to measure market sentiment. How would you apply this to the market? Or put another way, what % would you expect to see if we had already hit the bottom?

At this point, I'm expecting a plunge into the $2,000s without any specific target. The support is the 200-week MA and the $3,000 area. Ideally, the market will capitulate below support then spring back above. I don't remember any significant long term bottoms that didn't coincide with a V-bottom.

[nrd525]

Bitcoin cash, Bitcoin gold, and Bitcoin diamond are all very roughly 97% off their peak.  Though hard to measure as they had illiquid trading markets where you either couldn't deposit them or trade them. I recall selling my Bitcoin Gold at $360 (now $10) and my Bitcoin Diamonds at $20ish (now 60 cents).  Also it depends how you count the Bitcoin Cash fork.

By contrast, Bitcoin is down a mere 83%.

I've decided that DUMPlings are my bear market food of choice =)   Especially Asian ones (I'm vegan too so that limits the selection, but fortunately we've got some good vegan Asian food in our local stores).

[nrd525]

Bitcoin chart continues to look super bearish.  I've kept my bids that I made months ago. So I've got bids from 3000 down to 1000.  If we go to 1000, I'm going to lose a lot of money!  (I made a chart of how much money I lose vs the price).

I wonder how much of an economic stimulus the US 2020 election is?  Especially when you combine the impact of campaign spending with the larger fiscal stimulus that should come from the governments (state through federal)

[nrd525]

Fundstrat has created some interesting indexes:
https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/fundstrat-global-advisors-launches-fs-crypto-fx-to-track-cryptocurrency/

https://markets.ft.com/data/indices/tearsheet/summary?s=FSTOK250:NAS