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Author Topic: where does bitcoin stand today? (July 2014)  (Read 4860 times)
DooMAD
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July 01, 2014, 07:24:42 PM
 #21

To put the question in the OP another way, we'll throw in that innovation curve that's been posted a million times before here:



Normally when these threads come up, people generally estimate we're somewhere between Innovators and Early Adopters, but so far everyone in this thread seems to think we're so early that we're barely on the curve. 

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July 01, 2014, 11:32:06 PM
 #22

To put the question in the OP another way, we'll throw in that innovation curve that's been posted a million times before here:



Normally when these threads come up, people generally estimate we're somewhere between Innovators and Early Adopters, but so far everyone in this thread seems to think we're so early that we're barely on the curve. 
So at the end where do you think we are? , i think we are in a similar state to facebook around 2008-2009..

Internet of things.
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July 02, 2014, 03:56:32 AM
 #23

To put the question in the OP another way, we'll throw in that innovation curve that's been posted a million times before here:



Normally when these threads come up, people generally estimate we're somewhere between Innovators and Early Adopters, but so far everyone in this thread seems to think we're so early that we're barely on the curve. 
So at the end where do you think we are? , i think we are in a similar state to facebook around 2008-2009..

I have similar view.

Will exit if bitcoin price shoot up to 5k in a relatively short period of time. And wait for next bust before getting in again.

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July 02, 2014, 07:46:19 AM
 #24

We are still at early stage of usage.

There is no mutual fund or private equity firm investing in bitcoin yet. And no state and local pension holding bitcoin in their portfolio,

When you hear everyone is in bitcoin and start talking about it on every street corner, that is when you should exit and take your money elsewhere.
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July 02, 2014, 12:48:31 PM
 #25

I assume that even in a "full worldwide adoption scenario" (= maximum adoption ever reached) not the entire world population will use Bitcoin. But between 25-75% are possible.

So as a conservative estimate I will assume that 2 billion people will use bitcoin in the maximum adoption scenario. The current number of bitcoiners is hard to estimate. I would put that number in the 10 to 20 million range.

Based on these assumptions, we're currently at a value of 0.5-1 on your scale.

I agree and should have pointed that out, what I mean is 100 = full possible adoption of bitcoin, not 100 = every person on earth uses btc.

To accurately calculate the number we need to know how many people in 2014 are capable of performing bitcoin transactions, requirements: must have access to an electronic wallet (for security), must be older then a certain age and capable to understand the concept of money. So that's the max number.

Then we need to have the current number of individual bitcoin users (not wallet addresses).

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July 02, 2014, 01:08:17 PM
 #26

To put the question in the OP another way, we'll throw in that innovation curve that's been posted a million times before here:



Normally when these threads come up, people generally estimate we're somewhere between Innovators and Early Adopters, but so far everyone in this thread seems to think we're so early that we're barely on the curve.  
So at the end where do you think we are? , i think we are in a similar state to facebook around 2008-2009..

I have similar view.

Will exit if bitcoin price shoot up to 5k in a relatively short period of time. And wait for next bust before getting in again.

More like facebook in 2006 or so. Hardly anyone uses it yet, although many have heard about it. It definitely has no 100%+ growth rate per month yet like facebook had in 2008.

We are still at early stage of usage.

There is no mutual fund or private equity firm investing in bitcoin yet. And no state and local pension holding bitcoin in their portfolio,

When you hear everyone is in bitcoin and start talking about it on every street corner, that is when you should exit and take your money elsewhere.

If bitcoin were a regular stock, i'd agree, but with bitcoin it's different, once bitcoin controls the economy, you won't have to cash out. Bitcoin will BE your cash.
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July 02, 2014, 01:35:35 PM
 #27

If bitcoin were a regular stock, i'd agree, but with bitcoin it's different, once bitcoin controls the economy, you won't have to cash out. Bitcoin will BE your cash.

That's the winning ticket right there, that's a point bitcoin hasn't reached yet.

As long as people still talk like btc is this many $'s, which is totally understandable btw, bitcoin has not yet matured enough to be considered a stable currency ready for mass adoption.


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July 02, 2014, 01:59:02 PM
 #28


1





i say 10, 1 was at 2011, and grow isn't linear
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July 02, 2014, 03:32:52 PM
 #29

Hello,
I think it is standing in the 10-20 already Smiley
I was not going to say that , but i met my mother recently and she was knowing about BTC without me to share it. She was knowing about the auction lol Cheesy
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July 03, 2014, 09:37:25 AM
 #30

I think we can say where our expectations regarding the BTC does stand today. BTC is a decentralized crypto currency - there is no reliable, non-speculative information in order to make conclusions about it.
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July 03, 2014, 12:23:26 PM
 #31

Obviously from 1 to 100, 1 is the minimum possible so 1 person : satoshi
That alone eliminate 80% of thoose guesses.
Then dividing the number of users by the entire population is irrelevent as someone pointed out. It tells nothing.
Now everybody Will not use bitcoin so i would say 57 Smiley

The cost of mediation increases transaction costs, limiting the
minimum practical transaction size and cutting off the possibility for small casual transactions

Satoshi Nakamoto : https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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July 03, 2014, 12:42:45 PM
 #32

In that innovation curve that's been posted a million times before we are eary adopters.
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July 14, 2014, 03:54:14 PM
 #33

On a scale of 1 - 100, with 100 being full worldwide adoption and usage where does bitcoin stand?

For Bitcoin community, June has been a month of mixed blessing. Prices fell from $ 128.8 to $ 97.5 (and currently stands around $ 70), a large Bitcoin network statistics such as the number of transactions per block and the number of unique Bitcoin address used to fall sharply, and the Foundation for Bitcoin received a letter of termination and dismissal from the California Department of Financial Institutions. On the other hand, the volume of Google Trends, a statistic which estimates the global level in the interest in Bitcoin, at least temporarily halt the decline, and is now back to its level on May 19 to 25, or 20% of the peak. Media attention was mixed, with some articles arguing for the reason that Bitcoin "lost light" and others say that it is now "back on track" following some good news.but for the beginning of July, I am still watching
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July 15, 2014, 08:20:13 AM
 #34

5-10 percent all day in my book and slowly growing.  I'd think it's more closer to 6 percent honestly.
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July 15, 2014, 02:33:56 PM
 #35

5-10 percent all day in my book and slowly growing.  I'd think it's more closer to 6 percent honestly.
interesting report. but can you give details or if you take from a source you can tell us more. thank you
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July 15, 2014, 04:48:57 PM
 #36

5-10 percent all day in my book and slowly growing.  I'd think it's more closer to 6 percent honestly.
interesting report. but can you give details or if you take from a source you can tell us more. thank you

Sorry friend I don't have any links for you to refer to at this time.  Honestly I was just giving my opinion based on my gut feel or an educated guess.  The multi colered chart posted above can give a similar example of where I feel Bitcoin it at currently.
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July 15, 2014, 05:48:54 PM
 #37

Just about anyone that surf the web know bitcoin. 8-10.
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July 17, 2014, 01:25:59 AM
 #38

Knowledge people of Bitcoin: 40/100

Bitcoin price: 1/100

Total FIAT to Bitcoin: 0.0001/100

DooMAD
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July 17, 2014, 05:59:18 PM
 #39


Bitcoin price: 1/100


So eventually it's going to be $62500 per bitcoin?  Think I can live with that, heh.  Fingers crossed, but dunno if that's a little optimistic.  Maybe if we're lucky.  6 cents a bit, roughly.

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August 07, 2014, 09:19:56 AM
 #40

I wouldn't give it any more than a one to be honest as it's still at that beginning stage where it still has room to grow and still needs time to do so. With anything so big like this it's going to take time before it's going to be any higher on a scale as to where it stands.
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