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Author Topic: This might be the end of the correction  (Read 7173 times)
ineededausername
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March 07, 2012, 03:20:35 AM
 #1

Full disclosure: This is my personal opinion.  I'm not trading on it; nor am I trading at all.  I hold a considerable amount of BTC.

Here we are at a deciding moment.  A breakout up is very possible in the short term.

The critical price range to watch is $5.2-5.3.
1. Top of the earlier spike.
2. Depth is less steep after $5.2.
3. Mid-term downwards trendline is currently at $5.2-5.3.
4. .2's are crucial supports/resistances in the bitcoin market for some reason.
5. Long-term EMA (200) is at $5.3.
6. $5.2 would represent a decisive break from SMA(30) (the famous Nagle Line)... anything less might be a false alarm.
7. We simply haven't been above $5.2 for around 3 weeks.  It's definitely a major psychological resistance level.
More generally, a move up at all at this point or in the next few days would be bullish, because it would confirm the upwards trendline since $3.87.  

Now, it's time to wait. Smiley

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proudhon
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March 07, 2012, 03:52:13 AM
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I don't have any positions on botcoinica at the moment.  I just can't decide what I want to do.
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March 07, 2012, 05:22:30 AM
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Something that's making this different to the last $2 drop is that there seems to be a persistent underlying bullish move. If this is a shoulder, it's sure not dropping as quickly as the last one (which had collapsed by now). MACD showed some resistance to downward pressure, but this one had a strong buyer hold it up a little bit longer and the optimists came out to play volleyball with it above the hourly SMA(50). This must be the MA players at work.

I guess it's a waiting game to see if there's enough bullishness to overcome the jitteryness. MACD looks to be on the way to neutralize itself, but if it lands gently it'll greatly add to the bullish forecast imo. MACD needs to stay bullish for this to happen too, of course.

Was bear last night...did some analysis...bullish now...did some rethinking...and now I'm just hopelessly bored. You might be right on the correction end. At the very least, I think we'll give 5.2 a good rodgering.
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March 07, 2012, 11:08:17 AM
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I think price discovery is complete: bitcoins are worth about $5 each.  There's a good chance they'll trade in the $4 to $6 range for many months to come.  The possibility of a crackdown by US feds will keep new big players out of the market, and encourage old big players to exit the market.
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March 07, 2012, 11:56:21 AM
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I think price discovery is complete: bitcoins are worth about $5 each.  There's a good chance they'll trade in the $4 to $6 range for many months to come.  The possibility of a crackdown by US feds will keep new big players out of the market, and encourage old big players to exit the market.

Interesting thought. If you zoom out on the chart it does look a little like a huge triangle that just found its harmonic end.

I doubt anyone will be satisfied with that for long, though, and a mayhem calling they shall come.
ineededausername
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March 07, 2012, 01:34:37 PM
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I think price discovery is complete: bitcoins are worth about $5 each.  There's a good chance they'll trade in the $4 to $6 range for many months to come.  The possibility of a crackdown by US feds will keep new big players out of the market, and encourage old big players to exit the market.

Do you really think that BTCUSD is stabilizing?  Every time someone says price discovery is complete, I laugh... they said it several times last year.
"BTC are worth $14."
"BTC are worth $5."
"BTC are worth $3."

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March 07, 2012, 01:39:14 PM
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@old_engineer
the price need to go down and them up or up then down if bitcoins price remain at 5  bitcoin is dead because small variations can bring profit if there is volume but there is no volume so we need price variation imo a variation of 1 USD up and down each 2 weeks  can keep this alive, if one only have the opportunity of 3 digit gains per week this can become  a waste of time (remember on EU one hour lost of time is value at 9€)

So your argument is that bitcoin is dead if the price stabilizes? Because speculators can't make as much money?

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BadBear
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March 07, 2012, 01:48:46 PM
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So your argument is that bitcoin is dead if the price stabilizes? Because speculators can't make as much money?
yep, speculation keep this alive and bots bring liquidity on this world



before you say is good for merchants remember this we get mtgox volume data each day same for other exchange house also from bitcoinica, what we get from merchants ? nothing, bit-pay do release daily merchant volume ? nope, if you cant measure it does not exist
does the line  if you cant measure it does not exist is to hard ? well yes but that cut all the BS and voodoo numbers about merchant volume  

Speculators play a role, but to say it's dead just because speculators can't make easy money isn't a compelling argument.

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waveaddict
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March 07, 2012, 02:49:40 PM
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there is a 0% chance that this is going to happen

I think price discovery is complete: bitcoins are worth about $5 each.  There's a good chance they'll trade in the $4 to $6 range for many months to come.  The possibility of a crackdown by US feds will keep new big players out of the market, and encourage old big players to exit the market.

Blitz­
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March 07, 2012, 02:55:02 PM
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there is a 0% chance that this is going to happen
Historically speaking, everytime people started talking about "stabilization", Bitcoin tended to crash hard soon afterwards. Lips sealed

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
Hunterbunter
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March 07, 2012, 03:17:42 PM
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something feels like its about to explode.  Shocked
proudhon
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March 07, 2012, 03:21:22 PM
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something feels like its about to explode.  Shocked

The bitoinica spread has tightened up quite a bit, which is nice.
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March 07, 2012, 03:26:20 PM
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So your argument is that bitcoin is dead if the price stabilizes? Because speculators can't make as much money?
yep, speculation keep this alive and bots bring liquidity on this world



before you say is good for merchants remember this we get mtgox volume data each day same for other exchange house also from bitcoinica, what we get from merchants ? nothing, bit-pay do release daily merchant volume ? nope, if you cant measure it does not exist
does the line  if you cant measure it does not exist is to hard ? well yes but that cut all the BS and voodoo numbers about merchant volume  

Speculators play a role, but to say it's dead just because speculators can't make easy money isn't a compelling argument.
I do not find this very compelling either. I do not really speculate and could not care less about big players. If they want to liquidate to smaller players, it will strengthen the market, IMO.

The gospel according to Satoshi - https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

Free bitcoin=https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1610684
proudhon
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March 07, 2012, 03:27:30 PM
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Haha, you guys ready for the price to go down?
BadBear
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March 07, 2012, 03:30:32 PM
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Speculators play a role, but to say it's dead just because speculators can't make easy money isn't a compelling argument.
well let look at numbers ? how much % of bitcoin daily trading/moving is NOT speculative ? nobody knows

That's the real issue right there, we don't know. I just don't think speculators are gonna go away, people only in for a quick buck might. Weak hands might get pushed out, but that's the way it goes.  

It does look like its itching for a breakout though.

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Blitz­
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March 07, 2012, 03:30:51 PM
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What about it @myself?

I don’t understand what you want to tell me. Grin

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
Hunterbunter
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March 07, 2012, 03:38:42 PM
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something feels like its about to explode.  Shocked

The bitoinica spread has tightened up quite a bit, which is nice.

So you decided which way to go then?

I actually think this has already broken the trend lines that people are talking about. Maybe I just don't know how to draw them properly or something...it seems to me that this is already in new territory.
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March 07, 2012, 03:39:18 PM
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What about it @myself?

I don’t understand what you want to tell me. Grin
price go down or remain the same almost each time the volume is low
Combined with the 4k wall that wants to push up the price, I’m inclined to believe we will either see a large ask wall or a huge dump like the 5.3 one soon.

Basically, a manipulator can only achieve so much as the general trend allows.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
waveaddict
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March 07, 2012, 03:43:56 PM
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you're learning  Cheesy

What about it @myself?

I don’t understand what you want to tell me. Grin
price go down or remain the same almost each time the volume is low
Combined with the 4k wall that wants to push up the price, I’m inclined to believe we will either see a large ask wall or a huge dump like the 5.3 one soon.

Basically, a manipulator can only achieve so much as the general trend allows.

proudhon
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March 07, 2012, 03:46:09 PM
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What about it @myself?

I don’t understand what you want to tell me. Grin
price go down or remain the same almost each time the volume is low
Combined with the 4k wall that wants to push up the price, I’m inclined to believe we will either see a large ask wall or a huge dump like the 5.3 one soon.

Basically, a manipulator can only achieve so much as the general trend allows.

I saw a large 20k or so ask wall pop up for a minute or two about 30 minutes ago.  It went up around $5.20.  Whoever owns that wall is probably going to stop any attempt at a rally.  This is a false start, IMO. 
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