Has technical analysis been thoroughly debunked in the bitcoin community yet?

[Benjig]

Or are there a lot of people still following technical indicators and such.

Of the people who still choose to follow technical analysis, what's popular in bitcoin? What are people using?

Im still following some technical analysis, for day trade i think is still good you can predict some trend when it just jumped . for example price: 650 - 630 - 620 -500 -640 - 630.. it has been like a roller coaster for days.

I can't comment on the validity of your specific idea but I think that's a little different than what I consider standard 'TA'. I would say you're more trying to trade off of market psychology and specific anchor prices.

Some people try to claim that the popular TA indicators are representative of underlying market psychology but without being able to explain the logic behind them, I don't consider them on the same level.

What you're trying to do falls closer to behavioral economics. Since you're basing your idea on predicting people's(the market) reactions to different price points.

Well yeah so in fact i use a mix of technical indicators at the same time i use market pshychology, and i think its the best strategy, i mean with only technical analysis you can barely predict it at long term but at day trading, for example if you are in a market and have seen during last few days this rollercoaster pattern. There i used a tech pattern recognition in the chart ( forming triangles)

But you have to know very well the market and checking the news all the time while the possition is open, if you are not in the middle of a selloff then there is no reason to have a huge drop when the rollercoaster is in the in phase, so you will hit the pattern enough times to make profit no matter if one  or another pattern doesnt complete, you need to check also if this pattern was not behind the recent huge drops.

And then theres here another more complex but common tech-pshychological pattern, it forms triangles again in the chart, the coin is in a bear market, and during last month everytime it crashes to 20 percent or more in one day; it bounces back around the same percentaje or more. You will buy the bottom and sell it high free money, just dont do it in massive selloff bear market you can get burn

[davidgdg]

A better question is has TA ever been shown to have any value?

Google: park irwin technical

I got a link to an apartment complex in Florida called Irwin Park 😄

[btcxyzzz]

TA is "self-fullfilling prophrecy" and that's why it works on traditional markets like Forex because everybody is using it. In the other hand, cryptocurrency field is full of geeks and not that much professional traders, so TA is not much used - not having the same effect as it has on Forex.

Tried to use TA for cryptocurrency... Maybe it can be only applied to BTC/USD because it's big, but when you look at alt-coin field, it's so wild TA has no appliance there. Graphs are so weird and you can't see that weird graphs in any of TA tutorials.

[CEG5952]

TA is "self-fullfilling prophrecy" and that's why it works on traditional markets like Forex because everybody is using it. In the other hand, cryptocurrency field is full of geeks and not that much professional traders, so TA is not much used - not having the same effect as it has on Forex.

Tried to use TA for cryptocurrency... Maybe it can be only applied to BTC/USD because it's big, but when you look at alt-coin field, it's so wild TA has no appliance there. Graphs are so weird and you can't see that weird graphs in any of TA tutorials.

A lot of people around here say TA is a "self-fulfilling prophecy" -- I'm not so sure. Fib levels, for instance -- you see those in all sorts of natural and mathematical applications. Large stochastic movements often also bear resemblance to sine functions. I'm not convinced that there isn't more to it.

[bitleif]

A lot of people around here say TA is a "self-fulfilling prophecy" -- I'm not so sure. Fib levels, for instance -- you see those in all sorts of natural and mathematical applications. Large stochastic movements often also bear resemblance to sine functions. I'm not convinced that there isn't more to it.

There are absolutely patterns in bitcoin prices, there is no question about that. (Anyone who doesn't see them are probably blinded by some sort of dogmatic view on TA.) Whether those patterns follow classical TA "rules" or whether they are different for bitcoin, I'm not educated enough in classical TA to say.

However what is absolutely true and what you should never forget, is that studying price patterns can never ever be more than a proxy for understanding market psychology. The price is moved by people, and people cause all the patterns to happen. If a pattern repeats itself, it is only because groups of people tend to act similarly in similar situations.

[spooderman]

A better question is has TA ever been shown to have any value?

Its value goes up and down in an entirely predictable fashion

[aminorex]

A better question is has TA ever been shown to have any value?

Google: park irwin technical

I got a link to an apartment complex in Florida called Irwin Park 😄

Google: park irwin technical analysis profitable, then.

I wish they would just give everyone the same results

[tinof]

For long term view, nothing beat fundamental analysis.

[bassclef]

I use TA all the time to trade profitably. Experience is also important, you can't really read a couple books and jump in... you have to understand market psychology which is what TA actually is.

[segeln]

For long term view, nothing beat fundamental analysis.

The ultimate choice is:combine fundamental with technical analysis

[cp1]

Google: park irwin technical analysis profitable, then.

I wish they would just give everyone the same results

Their conclusion was that technical analysis gave a small profit on currencies until 1991, but not after, except for Yen.  I didn't see anything about bitcoin and 5-10% profit from trading is way lower than historical profit from buy and hold for bitcoin.

[twiifm]

I use TA all the time to trade profitably. Experience is also important, you can't really read a couple books and jump in... you have to understand market psychology which is what TA actually is.

Yes exactly.   TA  isn't a crystal ball its more of a compass

[dirkk]

Hi,
I suppose if one begins with the presumption that TA predicts the future then it is understandable that there are detractors.

If you have ever studied TA the first thing you learn is that TA DOES NOT forecast or predict the future. Not one TA/charting specialist would ever say it does!

What you might hear is that:
1. TA first and foremost gives a visual of price action over time and the repetative patterns within.

2. It is a way to marry price, time and volume in derived equations that plot as indicators

3. TA REDUCES the risk to enter a trade or INCREASES profit by knowing when to get out.

I have shown on my imgur site (three installments back) exact entry/exit prices for BITCOIN BTCe. On the charts you can see the entry/exit points I personally followed and traded. Unfortunately not all my calls are on that site because being an active troller on BTCe, I often made my calls there.

So if you visit https://dirkk.imgur.com/ go to BTC album and see the last say 6 installments.

To those that say TA doesn't work on BTC and crypto with liquidity, isn't doing their homework.

Regards and Happy Trading,
Dirk k.

[thezerg]

Hi,
I suppose if one begins with the presumption that TA predicts the future then it is understandable that there are detractors.

If you have ever studied TA the first thing you learn is that TA DOES NOT forecast or predict the future. Not one TA/charting specialist would ever say it does!

What you might hear is that:
1. TA first and foremost gives a visual of price action over time and the repetative patterns within.

2. It is a way to marry price, time and volume in derived equations that plot as indicators

3. TA REDUCES the risk to enter a trade or INCREASES profit by knowing when to get out.

I have shown on my imgur site (three installments back) exact entry/exit prices for BITCOIN BTCe. On the charts you can see the entry/exit points I personally followed and traded. Unfortunately not all my calls are on that site because being an active troller on BTCe, I often made my calls there.

So if you visit https://dirkk.imgur.com/ go to BTC album and see the last say 6 installments.

To those that say TA doesn't work on BTC and crypto with liquidity, isn't doing their homework.

Regards and Happy Trading,
Dirk k.

RIIIIIGHT.  So TA is just a way of producing pretty pictures and all you guys are just artists, right?  It has NOTHING whatsoever to do with any attempt to forecast or predict the price.  Come on, your #3 implies forecasts and/or price prediction, as general trends if not exact numbers.

[dirkk]

Hi,
I suppose if one begins with the presumption that TA predicts the future then it is understandable that there are detractors.

If you have ever studied TA the first thing you learn is that TA DOES NOT forecast or predict the future. Not one TA/charting specialist would ever say it does!

What you might hear is that:
1. TA first and foremost gives a visual of price action over time and the repetative patterns within.

2. It is a way to marry price, time and volume in derived equations that plot as indicators

3. TA REDUCES the risk to enter a trade or INCREASES profit by knowing when to get out.

I have shown on my imgur site (three installments back) exact entry/exit prices for BITCOIN BTCe. On the charts you can see the entry/exit points I personally followed and traded. Unfortunately not all my calls are on that site because being an active troller on BTCe, I often made my calls there.

So if you visit https://dirkk.imgur.com/ go to BTC album and see the last say 6 installments.

To those that say TA doesn't work on BTC and crypto with liquidity, isn't doing their homework.

Regards and Happy Trading,
Dirk k.

RIIIIIGHT.  So TA is just a way of producing pretty pictures and all you guys are just artists, right?  It has NOTHING whatsoever to do with any attempt to forecast or predict the price.  Come on, your #3 implies forecasts and/or price prediction, as general trends if not exact numbers.

I think you are being a little hard in your words. I agree that a lot of TA posts look like crap and they are. Like watching amateurs playing sport. It's still call NFL or Cricket or whatever but it's low grade. For people that don't understand TA it is easy to be fooled by crap.

In relation to "forecasts and/or price prediction" - well we can all guess can't we? That's a prediction or forecast. I'll state it again TA is designed to REDUCE the risk. If one decides to go with the probability then so be it.

And I wont accept anymore bagging of TA :=)) . BTW visit the site I suggested in my last post if you have the time. That is good TA!

cheers
Dirk K.

[BitchicksHusband]

There are probably people on here who have successfully used TA to increase their bitcoin holdings.  But they are few and far between and, like most gamblers, will only mention their wins and not their losses.  But the buy-and-holders have done over 90% as well with no sleepless nights or worry or risk of being in all fiat when the next bubble hits. 

And whenever challenged to show how their "system" beats buy-and-hold, they typically disappear or start getting angry.

[segeln]

Hi,
I suppose if one begins with the presumption that TA predicts the future then it is understandable that there are detractors.
If you have ever studied TA the first thing you learn is that TA DOES NOT forecast or predict the future. Not one TA/charting specialist would ever say it does!
What you might hear is that:
1. TA first and foremost gives a visual of price action over time and the repetative patterns within.
2. It is a way to marry price, time and volume in derived equations that plot as indicators
3. TA REDUCES the risk to enter a trade or INCREASES profit by knowing when to get out.
I have shown on my imgur site (three installments back) exact entry/exit prices for BITCOIN BTCe. On the charts you can see the entry/exit points I personally followed and traded. Unfortunately not all my calls are on that site because being an active troller on BTCe, I often made my calls there.
So if you visit https://dirkk.imgur.com/ go to BTC album and see the last say 6 installments.
To those that say TA doesn't work on BTC and crypto with liquidity, isn't doing their homework.
Regards and Happy Trading,
Dirk k.

I completely agree. Well said !

[Marbit]

They are just probabilistic models. I'd be surprised if detractors could show any statistical back-testing to prove common TA tools wrong. Try proving fib retracements wrong....

[dirkk]

There are probably people on here who have successfully used TA to increase their bitcoin holdings.  But they are few and far between and, like most gamblers, will only mention their wins and not their losses.  But the buy-and-holders have done over 90% as well with no sleepless nights or worry or risk of being in all fiat when the next bubble hits. 

And whenever challenged to show how their "system" beats buy-and-hold, they typically disappear or start getting angry.

I think the narrative on TA vs buy & hold is a little narrow. It appears the reference is continually on BTC or crypto buy and hold. If your saying that TA is useless in the crypto world then that may be so - but one cannot dismiss TA as a tool for buying stocks, currencies and other securities.

I have shown in my published charts that TA *is* applicable to BTC. I am not a miner. I have no idea of the longevity of crypto - so I trade it and not by gut feeling or responding to 'mooooon'.

If TA is not for you then fine - don't use it. Similarly don't bag and dismiss something just because one doesn't understand it.

>And whenever challenged to show how their "system" beats buy-and-hold, they typically disappear or start getting angry.
that is probably true in some cases

cheers,
Dirk K

[let_me_backtest_that]

Academics that study more thoroughly developed markets don't conclusively agree on the merits of TA
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=603481

Why should we expect anything different from people speculating about the value of a newly developed technology?