Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.
CTRLX:
Quote from: Chalkbot on August 05, 2014, 07:24:14 PM
Quote from: CTRLX on August 05, 2014, 07:22:40 PM
Sorry for not speaking your language and forgive my noobishness, but if that reddit post is true I might want to reconsider selling Bitcoin for fiat anytime soon?
If I were you, I would reconsider even if it were proven false.
Thanks, yes I am not planning on selling anytime soon, but I just wanted to check with more knowledgable people in this thread if my conclusion after reading that post was right. English is not my first language. Thank you for your reply.
justusranvier:
Quote from: Chalkbot on August 05, 2014, 07:19:37 PM
This is pretty much the limiting factor. As a rough barometer, I think I saw some poll of investors recently that said ~55% of them thought bitcoin was a terrible investment, or that it was in a bubble. Further increases in value would only reinforce this position for some of those folk, would it not?
You want a certain number of people to remain sceptical of Bitcoin for as long as possible, especially among the people who lend USD.
Quote from: Chalkbot on August 05, 2014, 07:19:37 PM
Is there a single event, or chain of events that would change this perception, or do we watch the number slowly fall until the remainder can't stem the tide?
Hyperbitcoinization is the last bubble in the USD/BTC exchange rate.
All the prior speculative manias collapse when the infrastructure can no longer handle the growth and Bitcoin holders sell in order to "lock in their gains"
One of these times (we won't know which one until after the fact) the risk perception of BTC vs fiat will invert such that Bitcoin will be regarded as the safe asset. Once that happens, the bubble doesn't pop because it becomes less about the rise of Bitcoin and instead is the flight to safety away from the USD (fiat in general).
Chalkbot:
Quote from: cypherdoc on August 05, 2014, 07:26:41 PM
Quote from: Chalkbot on August 05, 2014, 07:19:37 PM
Further increases in value would only reinforce this position for some of those folk, would it not?
no. we've seen perception and buying pressure rise several times during the run ups over the last several years. ppl get MORE bullish with the price rises. it's a feedback loop like justus was saying. and it doesn't just exist in Bitcoin. it's true for all markets.
Yes, but if that were the only factor, than none of the previous price bubbles should have ended before completely collapsing the USD. Certainly of that (let's call it) 55% group, some of them will change their mind in a bull market, but at the same time, when there are rapid gains there is an increase in previously bullish folk changing tunes, under the pretense that we've gone too high to sustain. So an equivalent negative feedback loop?
cypherdoc:
Quote from: Chalkbot on August 05, 2014, 07:31:44 PM
Quote from: cypherdoc on August 05, 2014, 07:26:41 PM
Quote from: Chalkbot on August 05, 2014, 07:19:37 PM
Further increases in value would only reinforce this position for some of those folk, would it not?
no. we've seen perception and buying pressure rise several times during the run ups over the last several years. ppl get MORE bullish with the price rises. it's a feedback loop like justus was saying. and it doesn't just exist in Bitcoin. it's true for all markets.
Yes, but if that were the only factor, than none of the previous price bubbles should have ended before completely collapsing the USD. Certainly of that (let's call it) 55% group, some of them will change their mind in a bull market, but at the same time, when there are rapid gains there is an increase in previously bullish folk changing tunes, under the pretense that we've gone too high to sustain. So an equivalent negative feedback loop?
correct, it isn't the only factor.
markets move in cycles or waves; none ever move in a straight line up. this is why i believe there is some validity to technical analysis and i employ it routinely. but i also rely on the fundamentals. there are always periods of bullishness and bearishness which we will continue to see.
and then there's trend and the trend in Bitcoin has clearly been up.
cypherdoc:
a 2nd leaker. things aren't going so well for the NSA:
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/05/politics/u-s-new-leaker/index.html
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