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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 2009308 times)
tvbcof
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August 17, 2015, 11:11:32 PM
 #31001


To my knowledge, I was the first person to suggest faking out the XT node count with a patch here on trolltalk.  It's a relatively obvious attack, though, so I'm sure that some people had thought of it before.

The counter would be for Hearn to release closed source binaries containing a magic number so that he (alone) could judge when the count of real XT nodes was high enough to start producing bigger blocks and fork the blockchain.  That will allow him to do it on his schedule and his group of friends to make some big bucks whether XT is DOA or not.  And/or he could syncronize it with an event in the mainstream economic system.

It will be interesting to know how many of cypherdoc's minions are willing to run a closed-source precompiled binary.  Of course since most of these nodes are just cranking away as VM's sharing a same processor just to build up a count, it doesn't matter much.  Even cypherdoc would not be stupid enough to have actual BTC on them.


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August 17, 2015, 11:24:28 PM
 #31002

....
Are we getting played and strung along by people even more hideous than we can imagine? ...

Matilda Briggs was not the name of a young woman, Watson, ...
It was a ship which is associated with the giant rat of Sumatra, a story for which the world is not yet prepared.
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August 17, 2015, 11:41:24 PM
 #31003


Thank you, now I need to read all what you wrote there Smiley

With regards to them showing up nowhere: This is indeed getting strange. I was eagerly waiting and I admit I repeatedly reloaded bitcoinxt and bitcoin_uncensored. Nothing shows up.

It is probably too early to be this paranoid, but: Are we getting played and strung along by people even more hideous than we can imagine? Pulling us into essentially dead and controlled subreddits? Can anyone with subreddit experience explain this?

On a related note Reddit will remove moderators if they have used their position for kickbacks or financial gain, does anyone know a for profit business that has contributed to any of the mods or any of the mods businesses?

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August 17, 2015, 11:56:06 PM
 #31004


I think Erdogan's insight into the game theory behind the block size limit was correct.

But to recognize his insight, I think we need to stop thinking in terms of "valid blocks" and start thinking in terms of "valid transactions."  All blocks that are composed exclusively of valid transactions are valid.  

Now instead of thinking that only Core and XT exist, imagine that there are dozens (and in the future possibly hundreds) of competing implementations of Bitcoin.  Each implementation has its own rules for what block size it will build upon.  From this viewpoint, the "effective limit" is the size of the largest block that's ever been included in the Blockchain.  If a miner wants to create a larger block (e.g., to collect more fees), then he has to weigh the chances that his block is orphaned with his desire to create a larger block.  If we imagine that the block size limit across the network forms some distribution as shown in the chart labelled "NEW THINKING" below, then, since the miner can't be 100% sure what this distribution is, it is rational for him to use the tip-toe method to minimize risk.



I think this is confusing a protocol enforced "limit" and market preferences.

There can not be disagreement on the protocol enforced limit, which is what your right hand graph shows. If there was then miners that issued larger blocks will get forked off of every miner with a lower limit.

I think the current situation is also more representative of the right hand side graph, than the left. Today all miners have a fixed protocol limit of 1MB, but many have preferences for smaller blocks. For example the stress tests showed just how many still had the 750KB soft limit in place. So we in practice have the right hand graph today.

What is needed instead is to get rid of the protocol limit in practice (maybe keep a high water anti-spam limit which is what the 1MB was/is), while letting the market show it's preferences. This would be like a combination of the two graphs where an anti-spam limit is far off to the right of the graph, and below that miners show a range of preferences on block sizes they are willing to both issue and accept, which looks like your graph on the right.

This situation probably leads to a loose and dynamic form of market consensus on sizes. Miners that decided to only accept blocks well below most other miners' preference risk being orphaned at a higher rate and so are forced to up the size they accept to better match other miners. At the same time miners that issue blocks larger than what most other miners are willing to build on also risk being orphaned at a higher rate. The result is miners are forced by market pressures to move towards a consensus.

This is where we should be and the hard protocol limit prevents the market from properly functioning.

What "many" have preferences for smaller blocks specifically? Who?


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. ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM        My PGP fingerprint is A764D833.        SMOOTHIE'S HEALTH AND FITNESS JOURNAL          History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
LEALANA  PHYSICAL MONERO COINS 999 FINE SILVER.
 
awemany
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August 18, 2015, 12:34:38 AM
 #31005

More kinks to iron out. Peter R.'s submission dropped off the 'news' page of /r/bitcoin_uncensored again, complete and suddenly - as opposed to just slowly moving down under the influx of new posts.

Weird.

EDIT: Back up again. Here's the mod replying to my question for the 2nd auto(?)mod:

    from SatoshisGhost [-1][M] via /r/bitcoin_uncensored/ sent a minute ago

    I just approved it. Not sure what happened before. Please confirm you see it now.

    permalinkreportblock usermark unreadreplyfull comments

rocks
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August 18, 2015, 12:39:34 AM
 #31006


I think Erdogan's insight into the game theory behind the block size limit was correct.

But to recognize his insight, I think we need to stop thinking in terms of "valid blocks" and start thinking in terms of "valid transactions."  All blocks that are composed exclusively of valid transactions are valid.  

Now instead of thinking that only Core and XT exist, imagine that there are dozens (and in the future possibly hundreds) of competing implementations of Bitcoin.  Each implementation has its own rules for what block size it will build upon.  From this viewpoint, the "effective limit" is the size of the largest block that's ever been included in the Blockchain.  If a miner wants to create a larger block (e.g., to collect more fees), then he has to weigh the chances that his block is orphaned with his desire to create a larger block.  If we imagine that the block size limit across the network forms some distribution as shown in the chart labelled "NEW THINKING" below, then, since the miner can't be 100% sure what this distribution is, it is rational for him to use the tip-toe method to minimize risk.



I think this is confusing a protocol enforced "limit" and market preferences.

There can not be disagreement on the protocol enforced limit, which is what your right hand graph shows. If there was then miners that issued larger blocks will get forked off of every miner with a lower limit.

I think the current situation is also more representative of the right hand side graph, than the left. Today all miners have a fixed protocol limit of 1MB, but many have preferences for smaller blocks. For example the stress tests showed just how many still had the 750KB soft limit in place. So we in practice have the right hand graph today.

What is needed instead is to get rid of the protocol limit in practice (maybe keep a high water anti-spam limit which is what the 1MB was/is), while letting the market show it's preferences. This would be like a combination of the two graphs where an anti-spam limit is far off to the right of the graph, and below that miners show a range of preferences on block sizes they are willing to both issue and accept, which looks like your graph on the right.

This situation probably leads to a loose and dynamic form of market consensus on sizes. Miners that decided to only accept blocks well below most other miners' preference risk being orphaned at a higher rate and so are forced to up the size they accept to better match other miners. At the same time miners that issue blocks larger than what most other miners are willing to build on also risk being orphaned at a higher rate. The result is miners are forced by market pressures to move towards a consensus.

This is where we should be and the hard protocol limit prevents the market from properly functioning.

What "many" have preferences for smaller blocks specifically? Who?

The last stress test showed that many pools were operating with the default 750KB block limit in place, which is a configurable option in the core and defaults to 750K. This is separate from the protocol limit of 1MB. You could see this as a string of MANY blocks coming in at just under 750KB.

As a result of the stress test some of those pools changed their default to 1MB, but not all.
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August 18, 2015, 01:22:05 AM
 #31007

this threads views per day since March this year:

600500 views / (5.5 mo * 30.5 days/mo) = 3579.7 views/day

that's up from the last time i did the calculation which was approx 3333 views/day.
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August 18, 2015, 01:28:40 AM
 #31008

602
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August 18, 2015, 01:37:43 AM
 #31009

602

really?

https://getaddr.bitnodes.io/nodes/?q=utxo

3   /Bitcoin XT:0.11.0/   553 (9.02%)

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███████         ╩██████Ñ         ███████
███████    ▐▄     ²██╩     a▌    ███████
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     ²▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓╩    
        ▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀       
           ²▀▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀▀`          
                   ²²²                 
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. ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM        My PGP fingerprint is A764D833.        SMOOTHIE'S HEALTH AND FITNESS JOURNAL          History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
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cypherdoc
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August 18, 2015, 01:38:49 AM
 #31010


look lower.  604 now.
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August 18, 2015, 01:44:49 AM
 #31011

the large miner XT pressure is about to get unbearable:

https://www.reddit.com/r/bitcoinxt/comments/3hcx9u/should_i_set_up_a_bitcoinxt_pool/
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August 18, 2015, 01:48:17 AM
 #31012

I think cypher is counting all nodes not just the top 5.
the metric to watch is, 1 and 2 are they dropping?
1   /Satoshi:0.11.0/   2229 (36.30%)
2   /Satoshi:0.10.2/   1158 (18.86%)

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August 18, 2015, 02:16:42 AM
 #31013

I think cypher is counting all nodes not just the top 5.
the metric to watch is, 1 and 2 are they dropping?
1   /Satoshi:0.11.0/   2229 (36.30%)
2   /Satoshi:0.10.2/   1158 (18.86%)

actually, i don't think we should be looking at %'s.  why?  b/c don't forget that the Cripplecoiner's can spin up their own nodes too just to give the impression that their % share is holding.  i'm concentrating on the absolute #'s for XT nodes.  yes, i'm ignoring the pseudo-XT's for now b/c i think that was a stupid idea out of the box and doubt any of those guys are that dumb to do that. if XT nodes can get up to 3500-4500 or even less, to me, that would be a fantastic sign of adoption and future success of the XT chain as long as miner follow along, which they should.
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August 18, 2015, 02:21:18 AM
 #31014

I think cypher is counting all nodes not just the top 5.
the metric to watch is, 1 and 2 are they dropping?
1   /Satoshi:0.11.0/   2229 (36.30%)
2   /Satoshi:0.10.2/   1158 (18.86%)

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August 18, 2015, 02:56:05 AM
 #31015

10% of network:

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August 18, 2015, 03:04:49 AM
 #31016


"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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August 18, 2015, 03:12:04 AM
 #31017



From reddit

Quote
Wish I had seen this sooner. http://xtpool.xyz is syncing the blockchain right now but should be ready in a couple of hours. More pools always welcome, but yes there is an xt specific pool already.

PPS with 1% (yes I know that's not sustainable long term, fee will probably have to increase once reserves run dry), no registration required just point your miner and use your payout address as your worker name.
https://www.reddit.com/r/bitcoinxt/comments/3hcx9u/should_i_set_up_a_bitcoinxt_pool/cu6j26m

Don't worry, we'll see blocks soon enough.

The great thing about bitcoin is how censorship resistant it is, there is no thermos to protect you here.
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August 18, 2015, 03:17:49 AM
 #31018



From reddit

Quote
Wish I had seen this sooner. http://xtpool.xyz is syncing the blockchain right now but should be ready in a couple of hours. More pools always welcome, but yes there is an xt specific pool already.

PPS with 1% (yes I know that's not sustainable long term, fee will probably have to increase once reserves run dry), no registration required just point your miner and use your payout address as your worker name.
https://www.reddit.com/r/bitcoinxt/comments/3hcx9u/should_i_set_up_a_bitcoinxt_pool/cu6j26m

Don't worry, we'll see blocks soon enough.

The great thing about bitcoin is how censorship resistant it is, there is no thermos to protect you here.

Bring em  Wink

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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August 18, 2015, 03:22:14 AM
 #31019

So I just opened both the bitcoin and bitcoinxt reddits to compare the number of active uses online at that moment since this is a better comparison than subscriber count which is mostly inactive users. The results are:

/r/bitcoin - 606 online users

/r/bitcoinxt - 306 online users

That makes 33% of bitcoin redditers switching to the XT reddit in 1 day.

Wow just wow
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August 18, 2015, 03:29:56 AM
 #31020

I think cypher is counting all nodes not just the top 5.
the metric to watch is, 1 and 2 are they dropping?
1   /Satoshi:0.11.0/   2229 (36.30%)
2   /Satoshi:0.10.2/   1158 (18.86%)



Something you might want to consider; is of the massive mining power in china only one node (from the 105) is actually running XT

 https://getaddr.bitnodes.io/nodes/?page=1&q=China
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