Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[tvbcof]

Yes, but I don't remember this impact preceding fairly obvious pain.  It could be that in today's more evolved shadow financial system the pain is being felt in more opaque quarters.  Or it could be that I am playing less attention now than I did back then so the pain is less apparent to me.  Or it could be that the Greek thing is no big deal and/or already priced in.  Or any number of other things may be going on.

Gold slowly ramped from the ~$270 low in 2001 to just touching $1000 in March 2008, after which it began to break down and spiked down to around $730 on Sept 11 2008 just before the stock market crashed. This was a >25% fall putting gold solidly into bear market status.

The stock market began to break down the week after gold touch $730s, during which time risk spiked and gold quickly rose to back to the $860 range, only to fall again in Oct after the initial stock market crash as everything in the world crashed in price. That is very high volatility for gold. I remember at the time it distinctly felt that gold broke just before the market, and then recovered as the go to safe asset as the larger stock market crashed.

Thinking back, maybe you are right-ish.  I was in PMs and my friends were, of course, in mainstream solutions.  I do recall from the various water-cooler talk being down when they were not, but I remember being happier then them near the bottom.  I do recall clearly the 'excuse' (probably accurate) that people were putting their hands on anything of remaining value and that took PM's down during the event.

That said, PM's were volatile since I got involved around the time of 9/11 and the Central Asia war stuff that it morphed into (and as a result of my educating myself about monetary systems to figure out what was going on with it...since 9/11 was clearly not a attributable to handful of Muslims hiding out in caves half way around the world.)  The volatility (which was not a slow and steady ramp-up) may or may not have been a result of people who were in the know reacting (or front-running) economic problems that came to a (probably manufactured) head in 2008.

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[iCEBREAKER]

"85% chance that Greece is forced to leave the Euro zone".

oops.

Don't worry, because "The Financial Crisis Is Over."

Dow futures -255

Good.  More money printing quantitative easing will lead to an explosion of broadband to the home.

if you're serious then that's a great argument for block size increases.

I'm obviously mocking the irreconcilable tension between Gavin's POV and your own.

That knife will continue to be twisted, until you at least acknowledge the spectacular hypocrisy of endorsing a conclusion based on a premise ("financial crisis is over") and an assumption ('blue sky ahead') with which you famously disagree and spend hours every week contradicting/disproving.

The people in Greece/Ukraine/Venezuela/Argentina/Florida/etc. who need BTC the most are not going to see Gavin's predicted home broadband explosion as their countries' economies implode.

Good job on the ventriloquism; it really does seem like two entirely different people talking when one side of your mouth endlessly and breathlessly pimps Bitcoin as the new gold/Visa/fiat/Starbucks-gift-card, while the other side FUDs on about "choking strangled Cripplecoin."   

[iCEBREAKER]

from the article:

This is not to say that Bitcoin is a divine substance or some immaculate bit of quintessence.

Blasphemy!    Death to the unbelieving enemies of The Holy Blockchain!!11!!1one!one2!~1!

i AM hypervigilant.  i think i see things clearly.  i don't go mad.

Yeah, whatever...TPTB also claims to be sane and (metaphorically) clear-sighted.

You have gone mad with hyper-vigilance.  We don't need that.

Listen to Szaboshi Backamoto: calm down and stop exaggerating, because we need more computer science and less drama.

[rocks]

Yes, but I don't remember this impact preceding fairly obvious pain.  It could be that in today's more evolved shadow financial system the pain is being felt in more opaque quarters.  Or it could be that I am playing less attention now than I did back then so the pain is less apparent to me.  Or it could be that the Greek thing is no big deal and/or already priced in.  Or any number of other things may be going on.

Gold slowly ramped from the ~$270 low in 2001 to just touching $1000 in March 2008, after which it began to break down and spiked down to around $730 on Sept 11 2008 just before the stock market crashed. This was a >25% fall putting gold solidly into bear market status.

The stock market began to break down the week after gold touch $730s, during which time risk spiked and gold quickly rose to back to the $860 range, only to fall again in Oct after the initial stock market crash as everything in the world crashed in price. That is very high volatility for gold. I remember at the time it distinctly felt that gold broke just before the market, and then recovered as the go to safe asset as the larger stock market crashed.

Thinking back, maybe you are right-ish.  I was in PMs and my friends were, of course, in mainstream solutions.  I do recall from the various water-cooler talk being down when they were not, but I remember being happier then them near the bottom.  I do recall clearly the 'excuse' (probably accurate) that people were putting their hands on anything of remaining value and that took PM's down during the event.

That said, PM's were volatile since I got involved around the time of 9/11 and the Central Asia war stuff that it morphed into (and as a result of my educating myself about monetary systems to figure out what was going on with it...since 9/11 was clearly not a attributable to handful of Muslims hiding out in caves half way around the world.)  The volatility (which was not a slow and steady ramp-up) may or may not have been a result of people who were in the know reacting (or front-running) economic problems that came to a (probably manufactured) head in 2008.

Just dig up the daily gold and spx charts for the past 15 years, it shows this pattern. For the record I don't think gold broke before the market because gold investors are more savvy than the broader market, but instead that the gold market breaks first during a liquidity crisis when money itself becomes scarce (the week after this gold spike down, Lehman ran out of cash because there was a massive ongoing liquidity crisis, which then caused the broader market to break).

[iCEBREAKER]

Antpool back in defensive mode due to filled blocks.  tell me, what do we have core devs for again?:

The core devs wrote and maintain most of the code on which your nodes run.  You are biting the hand that feeds you and looking their gift horse in the mouth.  You think they are easily replaceable via a quick search on Rent-a-Coder, but that assumption is entirely incorrect.

seriously, the only reason it has evolved that way is that Blockstream is fighting for it's life.  just look at the increasingly desperate comments from Adam all over Reddit and Twitter.

lifting the 1MB DoS artificial cap should be a no brainer.

The "increasingly desperate comments" are coming from Doctor Frappuccino and the other Gavinistas. 

Case in point:

Blockstream is far from fighting for its life.  They have $21 million in the bank ATM, and that's play money for their deep pocketed investors.

Second case in point:

Lifting the 1MB cap is far from "a no brainer."  It only seem simple to you because you are simple minded.  The rest of the world is busy answering the extremely difficult empirical and theoretical questions about how/when/why to raise the limit, while you hyperventilate and whine 'faster, please!'

blocks full again with TPS unacceptably high --> unconf tx set ~ 3000, more than double normal.  pools taking defensive action.  when will Blockstream devs do something?:

There you go again.     How many times must Gavin reassure you "the sky will not fall" because of full blocks?

we're at the beginning of a global change in monetary regime.

But Gavin said the "financial crisis is over."  Perhaps this is not the best moment, in terms of political economy, to bet Bitcoin's future on his rosy prognostications about cash-flush corporations lavishing shiny new broadband infrastructure on consumers?

[TPTB_need_war]

I gotta say that PM's today are at there sucky low levels in spite of a decline in the USDX.  This surprises me more than a bit.

You wouldn't be the least bit surprised had you been following Armstrong since he has been predicting that and has explained long before it happened why it would be the case.

My sense is that there is a lot happening behind the scenes and I'm inclined to be prepared for anything as a result of the grexit or threat there-of.  Thankfully I don't have to worry about a lot of other 'vestments since I deliberately keep my 'portfolio' pretty simple.  Were I not to do so I imagine that I might have some trouble sleeping over the next block of time.

You should be worried, because it appears you don't have a correct conceptualization and thus you could lose a lot on those few investments. In particular, Bitcoin is going to take a nose dive to double-digits after this current bounce (which should top out at about $315).

[iCEBREAKER]

I'd concur that you are more focused than average on the important things and have a much better than average interpretation of certain of the critical aspects of mainstream systems than most.  Of course, 'most' don't even know or care that such a sphere exists.

I'll concur with iCEBREAKER that you've got a knack at coming to exactly the wrong conclusions based on your analysis more often than not.  Such a shame.

Frap.doc is exhibiting classic Dunning-Kruger effects.  His high degree of expertise in medicine coupled with a bit of luck in Bitcoin has produced a pandimensional superiority complex impervious to facts and logic.

He's now a self-appointed expert in software engineering and cryptography, as evidenced by his behavior in the blocksize debate.

He's also a legal eagle, as evidence by his decision to take on Katten (a highly juiced, Obama regime connected, white shoe Chicago mobster outfit) pro se, while anyone with a lick of sense would be represented by a Baker-Botts caliber firm.

there's a difference though.

you actually believe in the concepts you've got wrong.

iCE just seems to follow the crowd.

More fact-free lunacy from Frap.doc (who just last week was bragging about his crowd-sourced upvotes).   

The truth is I am notorious (and even hated by many) for going against the crowd, whether the issue is HF's supposed scamming, the Redditard lumpen's demands for 20MB blocks, the properties of colloidal silver, anthropogenic climate change, or ACTM's business plan.

DH is no a fan of mine, so I value his praise very highly:

I have found iCEBREAKER to be articulate, intelligent, honest and knowledgeable.  I've also found him to be a complete asshole.  All traits I think would serve us well in a board member.

[cypherdoc]

iCEBlow blowing more iCE.

i'm flattered you find me so important to grace my thread with your never ending presence.  keep pushing me and it UP!

[TPTB_need_war]

Yeah, whatever...TPTB also claims to be sane and (metaphorically) clear-sighted.

Well you sure do stick to your hate of people regardless of the degree to which they are presenting logic on an issue which parallels your own.

Consistent hate is I guess a positive trait  

Men are interesting creatures. They always think they are correct until they run out of resources and have to beg. Does that mean they are correct because they can until they can't?

[OROBTC]

I gotta say that PM's today are at there sucky low levels in spite of a decline in the USDX.  This surprises me more than a bit.

You wouldn't be the least bit surprised had you been following Armstrong since he has been predicting that and has explained long before it happened why it would be the case.

My sense is that there is a lot happening behind the scenes and I'm inclined to be prepared for anything as a result of the grexit or threat there-of.  Thankfully I don't have to worry about a lot of other 'vestments since I deliberately keep my 'portfolio' pretty simple.  Were I not to do so I imagine that I might have some trouble sleeping over the next block of time.

You should be worried, because it appears you don't have a correct conceptualization and thus you could lose a lot on those few investments. In particular, Bitcoin is going to take a nose dive to double-digits after this current bounce (which should top out at about $315).

Actually, tvbcof, a diversified portfolio (but not so complex that it's hard to manage) should make you sleep better.  TPTB and I have been trading, erm, "suggestions" re gold, and I would have to admit that he is right so far (gold has been going nowhere lately).  I hold Bitcoin as well.  And a variety of other assets as well.

But, I am taking a longer view, and I am more uncertain than TPTB is.  I HODL BTC and gold.  My BTC investment is relatively small, it's really more for my education than looking for a big payback.  I am trying to keep up with the current BTC issues/problems, but the nitty-gritty is WAY above my paygrade.  I also am looking forward to substantial improvements that TPTB says may be coming soon.

TPTB's recent record (all I have convenient access to anyway) is quite good.  I am paying attention to his call re BTC to go to perhaps $315 or so before tanking to double-digits.  Perhaps if we move up $30 - $40 more per BTC "soon", I may buy a wee-bit more gold with some of it.  But, no way I am cashing in "my experiment" in digital money.


[Edited above for clarity]

[Melbustus]

...since 9/11 was clearly not a attributable to handful of Muslims hiding out in caves half way around the world...

Seriously? Conspiracy theories are fun and all, but most require there to exist a level of perfection in coordination, execution, and secrecy in large organizations, or spanning far more individuals, than is rational to consider a real possibility.

[rocks]

This is about right

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3bka9i/upetertodd_is_trying_to_get_full_replacebyfee/csmxi6i

[iCEBREAKER]

iCEBlow blowing more iCE.

i'm flattered you find me so important to grace my thread with your never ending presence.  keep pushing me and it UP!

Sure, no problem.  It's a fun thread, despite the uncharacteristically nasty acrimony over GavinCoin.

Very wise of you to not try defending your silly "iCE just seems to follow the crowd" remark, BTW.   

[tvbcof]

...since 9/11 was clearly not a attributable to handful of Muslims hiding out in caves half way around the world...

Seriously? Conspiracy theories are fun and all, but most require there to exist a level of perfection in coordination, execution, and secrecy in large organizations, or spanning far more individuals, than is rational to consider a real possibility.

No they don't.  That's why most of these false flags are about as clear as the nose on one's face when someone takes the time to look into them.  Thankfully we have an alternate media and interested individuals in society who, for whatever their set of reasons, will do just that.  We'll see how much longer that lasts now that the FCC has regulatory authority over the internet.  I'm guessing that they'll hold up about as well as Bitcoin when people attempt to use it in it's original P2P form.

[elux]

This is about right

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3bka9i/upetertodd_is_trying_to_get_full_replacebyfee/csmxi6i

Peter Todd on /r/buttcoin today:

Why doesnt buttcoin start its own "stress test"?

I dont know anything about coding or servers or the intricate workings of bitcoin, (I'm just an ideas man), but it would be fun to be involved in setting up our own little "stress test" on the bitcoin network.
Obviously it's a waste of money, but so are a lot of things (at least it goes to the nice energy companies in China). (...)

Find me $5k and I'll make it happen in a big way, with proper tx creation scripts that don't just crash.
This is a serious offer.

Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/3bk12f/why_doesnt_buttcoin_start_its_own_stress_test/csn4nbz

 

[hdbuck]

I am struggling making a comparaison chart of Bitcoin's vs Euro's volatility, anyone knows a tool to do so please?

[rocks]

This is about right

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3bka9i/upetertodd_is_trying_to_get_full_replacebyfee/csmxi6i

Peter Todd on /r/buttcoin today:

Why doesnt buttcoin start its own "stress test"?

I dont know anything about coding or servers or the intricate workings of bitcoin, (I'm just an ideas man), but it would be fun to be involved in setting up our own little "stress test" on the bitcoin network.
Obviously it's a waste of money, but so are a lot of things (at least it goes to the nice energy companies in China). (...)

Find me $5k and I'll make it happen in a big way, with proper tx creation scripts that don't just crash.
This is a serious offer.

Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/3bk12f/why_doesnt_buttcoin_start_its_own_stress_test/csn4nbz

 

I think this demonstrates his level of hypocrisy here.

Peter is saying to the /r/buttcoin group that he is happy to implement a massive flood attack against Bitcoin for $5K in transactions (which is enough to generate 10s of millions of transactions very quickly), because he is confident that the network can handle this.

Which leads one to ask, if nodes the and current P2P network can handle a flood of several 10s of millions of transactions (as Peter is saying), why can't Bitcoin handle larger blocksizes again?

[tvbcof]

I am struggling making a comparaison chart of Bitcoin's vs Euro's volatility, anyone knows a tool to do so please?

A while back I put something on this thread which touches both on how to obtain data from someone else's Google spreadsheet (using it as a quasi-database) and also feeding data into gnuplot.  Sometimes I get carried away trying to do one-liners on the command line (though I'm losing my edge for lack of practice over the last few years.)  Probably won't do you much good, but here it is:

  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=68655.msg925384#msg925384

[hdbuck]

I am struggling making a comparaison chart of Bitcoin's vs Euro's volatility, anyone knows a tool to do so please?

A while back I put something on this thread which touches both on how to obtain data from someone else's Google spreadsheet (using it as a quasi-database) and also feeding data into gnuplot.  Sometimes I get carried away trying to do one-liners on the command line (though I'm losing my edge for lack of practice over the last few years.)  Probably won't do you much good, but here it is:

  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=68655.msg925384#msg925384

erf i'm having this excel issue, where i have on one cell multiple data

for ex: 2015-06-14,233.8536,5.454695278537045,0.004716184177479654,0.011187287496159574

how do i separate and reaffect each to single cell?

[tvbcof]

I am struggling making a comparaison chart of Bitcoin's vs Euro's volatility, anyone knows a tool to do so please?

A while back I put something on this thread which touches both on how to obtain data from someone else's Google spreadsheet (using it as a quasi-database) and also feeding data into gnuplot.  Sometimes I get carried away trying to do one-liners on the command line (though I'm losing my edge for lack of practice over the last few years.)  Probably won't do you much good, but here it is:

  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=68655.msg925384#msg925384

erf i'm having this excel issue, where i have on one cell multiple data

for ex: 2015-06-14,233.8536,5.454695278537045,0.004716184177479654,0.011187287496159574

how do i separate and reaffect each to single cell?

Don't know much about excel (have not used it for several decades) but you might try making sure you import the data as 'csv' (comma separated values.)  It looks like it is such but excel is not interpreting it that way.

It is also sometimes the case that the input data can have something which excel interpreted as 'escapes'.  That is, it might be being inadvertently instructed to be treating the commas as literal values.