Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[S3052]

I think it would be a very appropriate time to start a "stock market collapsing, bitcoin up" thread.

It is rather: All risk on assets DOWN. Cash UP.
this is why I started this thread:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=781957.msg8891629#msg8891629

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[tabnloz]

i know everyone's feeling bad right about now with this relentless pullback but i strongly believe Bitcoin is going to start diverging UP inversely from gold very soon.  in the big fractal of the Bitcoin price chart, we look to be completing the retest of the initial low @339.  the bounce should begin:

"Should" is the scary word here 

no kidding 

its during times like these that reading technical articles about the math behind Bitcoin restores confidence in what we're dealing with.  read Graf's article i posted above.

also, ignore idiots like Severro.  notice how those punks never enter this thread except for the one time fallling dared to post?  they don't dare to hang out in threads where there is actual intelligent ppl and discussion going on.  plus, i'd rip him to shreds.  he never talks about anything technical b/c i'm sure he doesn't understand what Bitcoin is or what it represents.  he just a hired troll used to scare the weak minded.

This thread should have its own board. It is part of a select few for anyone wanting to hear and learn from those with some experience; i know im getting plenty from it.

[Kupsi]

Gold @ 1215

[logictense]

This is unusual to have a crypto media source that does not have excuses in the back pocket to explain BTC crash (exactly crash, not up) events that are certainly going to happen. I always thought the media already knows who will be the scapegoat. Price dropped. However, this sort of thing could be a fore taste of things to come. Market manipulations happen. Nowadays you can trade BTC on a leveraged basis. This give people that hold a lot of BTC a huge amount of power. They have enough BTC to move the market any time they want.
So what they can do, for example, is open a “short” position on a leveraged BTC exchange, then DUMP a load of BTC on to the market. Their dump forces the price of BTC down. They “win” their short bet, and (if they so desire) can slowly buy back their BTC at a cheaper price. They can even increase their holding. Remember, the trade is leveraged, which means that they can get 10x or even (in some cases) 100x the percentage move. So if the % move was 2%, they can get a 20% return, or even a 200% return, which can be an incentive for people to play dirty. If you look at a 4 year logarithmic chart you’ll see that the huge bull runs are almost perfectly 8 months apart
Price highs and lows run in a well defined sequence. We are now upon the next 8 month increment also the previous huge bull runs were preceded by unusually long periods of price stability in similar triangle patterns. All of this would lead you to believe the price will go into another huge bull run till the end of a year.

[KJO]

this would be such a brilliant place for a stock mkt top after 2d of fake breakout rally after bullshit FOMC.  we're way overdue after not fixing a single fricking thing on Wall St after what they caused first in 2001 and then 2008.  we got a spinning top going today:



here's the VIX:



mind you, this is the least confident thing i'd bank on given the extent of moral hazard Wall St is willing to run on.

2001 ----> 2008 ---->2015

[cypherdoc]

...

"Should" is the scary word here  

no kidding  

its during times like these that reading technical articles about the math behind Bitcoin restores confidence in what we're dealing with.  read Graf's article i posted above.

also, ignore idiots like Severro.  notice how those punks never enter this thread except for the one time fallling dared to post?  they don't dare to hang out in threads where there is actual intelligent ppl and discussion going on.  plus, i'd rip him to shreds.  he never talks about anything technical b/c i'm sure he doesn't understand what Bitcoin is or what it represents.  he just a hired troll used to scare the weak minded.

Or just watch that Wences video I keep posting. The trolls can think and post what they want, but the reality is that bitcoin is an unprecedented advance in the technology of money, and given the extraordinary efficiency gains inherent in improving the one technology that moves all value around the world, it'll slowly but surely seep into the core of global human exchange.

Let the weak-minds do what they do best: emotionally react rather than intelligently evaluate.

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/513036892674465793

Tom Woods is taking questions for Bob Murphy podcast

[cypherdoc]

This is unusual to have a crypto media source that does not have excuses in the back pocket to explain BTC crash (exactly crash, not up) events that are certainly going to happen. I always thought the media already knows who will be the scapegoat. Price dropped. However, this sort of thing could be a fore taste of things to come. Market manipulations happen. Nowadays you can trade BTC on a leveraged basis. This give people that hold a lot of BTC a huge amount of power. They have enough BTC to move the market any time they want.
So what they can do, for example, is open a “short” position on a leveraged BTC exchange, then DUMP a load of BTC on to the market. Their dump forces the price of BTC down. They “win” their short bet, and (if they so desire) can slowly buy back their BTC at a cheaper price. They can even increase their holding. Remember, the trade is leveraged, which means that they can get 10x or even (in some cases) 100x the percentage move. So if the % move was 2%, they can get a 20% return, or even a 200% return, which can be an incentive for people to play dirty. If you look at a 4 year logarithmic chart you’ll see that the huge bull runs are almost perfectly 8 months apart
Price highs and lows run in a well defined sequence. We are now upon the next 8 month increment also the previous huge bull runs were preceded by unusually long periods of price stability in similar triangle patterns. All of this would lead you to believe the price will go into another huge bull run till the end of a year.

Sure they can do that and no doubt they have recently but in actuality these types of trades are extraordinarily difficult and risky to pull off especially on foreign exchanges with unknown owners who could run with your money at any moment.

As with any other trades, timing is paramount. If you're wrong about sentiment there could be a bull whale lying in wait to squeeze the hell out of your short. You also never know if the exchange owner himself is looking to screw you. I've never left a dime on any of these sites and am so glad I didn't which is also why im so skeptical of people who claim they sold out their 100% BTC position @1200. How the hell could they have done that since the only real exchange they would likely have used was gox back in December. And that's when they weren't wiring any USD out so even if you were good enough to have picked the top how could you have gotten the money out?

I don't wish any theft on anyone but if some whale is trying to short the price down it would serve him right to get nailed.  

Now is not the time to try that.

[S3052]

This is unusual to have a crypto media source that does not have excuses in the back pocket to explain BTC crash (exactly crash, not up) events that are certainly going to happen. I always thought the media already knows who will be the scapegoat. Price dropped. However, this sort of thing could be a fore taste of things to come. Market manipulations happen. Nowadays you can trade BTC on a leveraged basis. This give people that hold a lot of BTC a huge amount of power. They have enough BTC to move the market any time they want.
So what they can do, for example, is open a “short” position on a leveraged BTC exchange, then DUMP a load of BTC on to the market. Their dump forces the price of BTC down. They “win” their short bet, and (if they so desire) can slowly buy back their BTC at a cheaper price. They can even increase their holding. Remember, the trade is leveraged, which means that they can get 10x or even (in some cases) 100x the percentage move. So if the % move was 2%, they can get a 20% return, or even a 200% return, which can be an incentive for people to play dirty. If you look at a 4 year logarithmic chart you’ll see that the huge bull runs are almost perfectly 8 months apart
Price highs and lows run in a well defined sequence. We are now upon the next 8 month increment also the previous huge bull runs were preceded by unusually long periods of price stability in similar triangle patterns. All of this would lead you to believe the price will go into another huge bull run till the end of a year.

Sure they can do that and no doubt they have recently but in actuality these types of trades are extraordinarily difficult and risky to pull off especially on foreign exchanges with unknown owners who could run with your money at any moment.

As with any other trades, timing is paramount. If you're wrong about sentiment there could be a bull whale lying in wait to squeeze the hell out of your short. You also never know if the exchange owner himself is looking to screw you. I've never left a dime on any of these sites and am so glad I didn't which is also why im so skeptical of people who claim they sold out their 100% BTC position @1200. How the hell could they have done that since the only real exchange they would likely have used was gox back in December. And that's when they weren't wiring any USD out so even if you were good enough to have picked the top how could you have gotten the money out.

I don't wish any theft on anyone but if some whale is trying to short the price down it would serve him right to get nailed.  

Now is not the time to try that.

You are right in most aspects except of one.

People who have sold at 1200 $ like me did not need to be stuck at mtgox. bitfinex was running smoothly at the time and withdrawals were smooth as well.

[cypherdoc]

This is unusual to have a crypto media source that does not have excuses in the back pocket to explain BTC crash (exactly crash, not up) events that are certainly going to happen. I always thought the media already knows who will be the scapegoat. Price dropped. However, this sort of thing could be a fore taste of things to come. Market manipulations happen. Nowadays you can trade BTC on a leveraged basis. This give people that hold a lot of BTC a huge amount of power. They have enough BTC to move the market any time they want.
So what they can do, for example, is open a “short” position on a leveraged BTC exchange, then DUMP a load of BTC on to the market. Their dump forces the price of BTC down. They “win” their short bet, and (if they so desire) can slowly buy back their BTC at a cheaper price. They can even increase their holding. Remember, the trade is leveraged, which means that they can get 10x or even (in some cases) 100x the percentage move. So if the % move was 2%, they can get a 20% return, or even a 200% return, which can be an incentive for people to play dirty. If you look at a 4 year logarithmic chart you’ll see that the huge bull runs are almost perfectly 8 months apart
Price highs and lows run in a well defined sequence. We are now upon the next 8 month increment also the previous huge bull runs were preceded by unusually long periods of price stability in similar triangle patterns. All of this would lead you to believe the price will go into another huge bull run till the end of a year.

Sure they can do that and no doubt they have recently but in actuality these types of trades are extraordinarily difficult and risky to pull off especially on foreign exchanges with unknown owners who could run with your money at any moment.

As with any other trades, timing is paramount. If you're wrong about sentiment there could be a bull whale lying in wait to squeeze the hell out of your short. You also never know if the exchange owner himself is looking to screw you. I've never left a dime on any of these sites and am so glad I didn't which is also why im so skeptical of people who claim they sold out their 100% BTC position @1200. How the hell could they have done that since the only real exchange they would likely have used was gox back in December. And that's when they weren't wiring any USD out so even if you were good enough to have picked the top how could you have gotten the money out.

I don't wish any theft on anyone but if some whale is trying to short the price down it would serve him right to get nailed.  

Now is not the time to try that.

You are right in most aspects except of one.

People who have sold at 1200 $ like me did not need to be stuck at mtgox. bitfinex was running smoothly at the time and withdrawals were smooth as well.

So then you should be richer than rich having sold a100% BTC portfolio @$1200 after having successfully navigated all the twists and turns on the way up from $0.60.

[rebuilder]

You also never know if the exchange owner himself is looking to screw you. I've never left a dime on any of these sites and am so glad I didn't which is also why im so skeptical of people who claim they sold out their 100% BTC position @1200. How the hell could they have done that since the only real exchange they would likely have used was gox back in December. And that's when they weren't wiring any USD out so even if you were good enough to have picked the top how could you have gotten the money out.

As I recall, Bitstamp was well established by December, without gox's "banking problems". For whatever that's worth. Still, your point stands: Exchanges are still blindly trusted, even after gox melted down. The lack of serious developments to mitigate counterparty risk is one of the  most depressing things for me this year.

[thezerg]

This is unusual to have a crypto media source that does not have excuses in the back pocket to explain BTC crash (exactly crash, not up) events that are certainly going to happen. I always thought the media already knows who will be the scapegoat. Price dropped. However, this sort of thing could be a fore taste of things to come. Market manipulations happen. Nowadays you can trade BTC on a leveraged basis. This give people that hold a lot of BTC a huge amount of power. They have enough BTC to move the market any time they want.
So what they can do, for example, is open a “short” position on a leveraged BTC exchange, then DUMP a load of BTC on to the market. Their dump forces the price of BTC down. They “win” their short bet, and (if they so desire) can slowly buy back their BTC at a cheaper price. They can even increase their holding. Remember, the trade is leveraged, which means that they can get 10x or even (in some cases) 100x the percentage move. So if the % move was 2%, they can get a 20% return, or even a 200% return, which can be an incentive for people to play dirty. If you look at a 4 year logarithmic chart you’ll see that the huge bull runs are almost perfectly 8 months apart
Price highs and lows run in a well defined sequence. We are now upon the next 8 month increment also the previous huge bull runs were preceded by unusually long periods of price stability in similar triangle patterns. All of this would lead you to believe the price will go into another huge bull run till the end of a year.

Sure they can do that and no doubt they have recently but in actuality these types of trades are extraordinarily difficult and risky to pull off especially on foreign exchanges with unknown owners who could run with your money at any moment.

As with any other trades, timing is paramount. If you're wrong about sentiment there could be a bull whale lying in wait to squeeze the hell out of your short. You also never know if the exchange owner himself is looking to screw you. I've never left a dime on any of these sites and am so glad I didn't which is also why im so skeptical of people who claim they sold out their 100% BTC position @1200. How the hell could they have done that since the only real exchange they would likely have used was gox back in December. And that's when they weren't wiring any USD out so even if you were good enough to have picked the top how could you have gotten the money out.

I don't wish any theft on anyone but if some whale is trying to short the price down it would serve him right to get nailed.  

Now is not the time to try that.

You are right in most aspects except of one.

People who have sold at 1200 $ like me did not need to be stuck at mtgox. bitfinex was running smoothly at the time and withdrawals were smooth as well.

I didn't see 1200 on bitfinex, although it could have happened briefly.  But between 1000 and 1100 was certainly possible on both bitfinex and bitstamp.  At the same time, I think that most people who claim to have sold out at those prices are more commenting on the small size of their stash then their investing acumen.  As Cypherdoc was implying, a typical large holder would not accept the risk of trusting these sites with 1000s of coins or the fiat equivalent.  Of course, YMMV, nothing ventured nothing gained.  And a whale professional investor may be flying to HK/UK to personally meet the exchange owners, have a staff researching the past history of said owners, etc.

[cypherdoc]

This is unusual to have a crypto media source that does not have excuses in the back pocket to explain BTC crash (exactly crash, not up) events that are certainly going to happen. I always thought the media already knows who will be the scapegoat. Price dropped. However, this sort of thing could be a fore taste of things to come. Market manipulations happen. Nowadays you can trade BTC on a leveraged basis. This give people that hold a lot of BTC a huge amount of power. They have enough BTC to move the market any time they want.
So what they can do, for example, is open a “short” position on a leveraged BTC exchange, then DUMP a load of BTC on to the market. Their dump forces the price of BTC down. They “win” their short bet, and (if they so desire) can slowly buy back their BTC at a cheaper price. They can even increase their holding. Remember, the trade is leveraged, which means that they can get 10x or even (in some cases) 100x the percentage move. So if the % move was 2%, they can get a 20% return, or even a 200% return, which can be an incentive for people to play dirty. If you look at a 4 year logarithmic chart you’ll see that the huge bull runs are almost perfectly 8 months apart
Price highs and lows run in a well defined sequence. We are now upon the next 8 month increment also the previous huge bull runs were preceded by unusually long periods of price stability in similar triangle patterns. All of this would lead you to believe the price will go into another huge bull run till the end of a year.

Sure they can do that and no doubt they have recently but in actuality these types of trades are extraordinarily difficult and risky to pull off especially on foreign exchanges with unknown owners who could run with your money at any moment.

As with any other trades, timing is paramount. If you're wrong about sentiment there could be a bull whale lying in wait to squeeze the hell out of your short. You also never know if the exchange owner himself is looking to screw you. I've never left a dime on any of these sites and am so glad I didn't which is also why im so skeptical of people who claim they sold out their 100% BTC position @1200. How the hell could they have done that since the only real exchange they would likely have used was gox back in December. And that's when they weren't wiring any USD out so even if you were good enough to have picked the top how could you have gotten the money out.

I don't wish any theft on anyone but if some whale is trying to short the price down it would serve him right to get nailed.  

Now is not the time to try that.

You are right in most aspects except of one.

People who have sold at 1200 $ like me did not need to be stuck at mtgox. bitfinex was running smoothly at the time and withdrawals were smooth as well.

I didn't see 1200 on bitfinex, although it could have happened briefly.  But between 1000 and 1100 was certainly possible on both bitfinex and bitstamp.  At the same time, I think that most people who claim to have sold out at those prices are more commenting on the small size of their stash then their investing acumen.  As Cypherdoc was implying, a typical large holder would not accept the risk of trusting these sites with 1000s of coins or the fiat equivalent.  Of course, YMMV, nothing ventured nothing gained.  And a whale professional investor may be flying to HK/UK to personally meet the exchange owners, have a staff researching the past history of said owners, etc.

Good point, 1200 only happened on gox and was significantly higher than all other exchanges. S3052?

[S3052]

You are right in most aspects except of one.

People who have sold at 1200 $ like me did not need to be stuck at mtgox. bitfinex was running smoothly at the time and withdrawals were smooth as well.
[/quote]

So then you should be richer than rich having sold a100% BTC portfolio @$1200 after having successfully navigated all the twists and turns on the way up from $0.60.
[/quote]

Not sure why you are concerned about my "richness" or lack of.
I am very happy.
Believe it or not, I did sell a lot between 1100 and 1200.

[S3052]

This is unusual to have a crypto media source that does not have excuses in the back pocket to explain BTC crash (exactly crash, not up) events that are certainly going to happen. I always thought the media already knows who will be the scapegoat. Price dropped. However, this sort of thing could be a fore taste of things to come. Market manipulations happen. Nowadays you can trade BTC on a leveraged basis. This give people that hold a lot of BTC a huge amount of power. They have enough BTC to move the market any time they want.
So what they can do, for example, is open a “short” position on a leveraged BTC exchange, then DUMP a load of BTC on to the market. Their dump forces the price of BTC down. They “win” their short bet, and (if they so desire) can slowly buy back their BTC at a cheaper price. They can even increase their holding. Remember, the trade is leveraged, which means that they can get 10x or even (in some cases) 100x the percentage move. So if the % move was 2%, they can get a 20% return, or even a 200% return, which can be an incentive for people to play dirty. If you look at a 4 year logarithmic chart you’ll see that the huge bull runs are almost perfectly 8 months apart
Price highs and lows run in a well defined sequence. We are now upon the next 8 month increment also the previous huge bull runs were preceded by unusually long periods of price stability in similar triangle patterns. All of this would lead you to believe the price will go into another huge bull run till the end of a year.

Sure they can do that and no doubt they have recently but in actuality these types of trades are extraordinarily difficult and risky to pull off especially on foreign exchanges with unknown owners who could run with your money at any moment.

As with any other trades, timing is paramount. If you're wrong about sentiment there could be a bull whale lying in wait to squeeze the hell out of your short. You also never know if the exchange owner himself is looking to screw you. I've never left a dime on any of these sites and am so glad I didn't which is also why im so skeptical of people who claim they sold out their 100% BTC position @1200. How the hell could they have done that since the only real exchange they would likely have used was gox back in December. And that's when they weren't wiring any USD out so even if you were good enough to have picked the top how could you have gotten the money out.

I don't wish any theft on anyone but if some whale is trying to short the price down it would serve him right to get nailed.  

Now is not the time to try that.

You are right in most aspects except of one.

People who have sold at 1200 $ like me did not need to be stuck at mtgox. bitfinex was running smoothly at the time and withdrawals were smooth as well.

I didn't see 1200 on bitfinex, although it could have happened briefly.  But between 1000 and 1100 was certainly possible on both bitfinex and bitstamp.  At the same time, I think that most people who claim to have sold out at those prices are more commenting on the small size of their stash then their investing acumen.  As Cypherdoc was implying, a typical large holder would not accept the risk of trusting these sites with 1000s of coins or the fiat equivalent.  Of course, YMMV, nothing ventured nothing gained.  And a whale professional investor may be flying to HK/UK to personally meet the exchange owners, have a staff researching the past history of said owners, etc.

Good point, 1200 only happened on gox and was significantly higher than all other exchanges. S3052?

Guys you are how we in German say "Korinthenkacker". 1175 was the top and the selling range was 1100-1175 if it is so important to you.

>>logictense
My method was to store BTC in cold wallets and only briefly put them on bitfinex or stamp for selling and withdrawing thereafter. It worked.

[cypherdoc]

You are right in most aspects except of one.

People who have sold at 1200 $ like me did not need to be stuck at mtgox. bitfinex was running smoothly at the time and withdrawals were smooth as well.

So then you should be richer than rich having sold a100% BTC portfolio @$1200 after having successfully navigated all the twists and turns on the way up from $0.60.
[/quote]

Not sure why you are concerned about my "richness" or lack of.
I am very happy.
Believe it or not, I did sell a lot between 1100 and 1200.
[/quote]

Not concerned about that at all. It's the accuracy of your claims I'm concerned about. especially the ones about outperforming buy and hold.

If one reads the title of your sub thread and your comments within it, one would think you've never made a trading mistake on the way up from $0.60  to $1200. If true, you should be richer than the many buy and holders who have indeed become rich over the same time period.

[thezerg]

2^11 is 2016?

it's 2048 on my calculator )

 

2016 is 2048 after an integer overflow.

Can't tell if you guys are joking... so here's a hint:

6*24 * 14 = 2016

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XY5KTVA_2ys

[justusranvier]

The lack of serious developments to mitigate counterparty risk is one of the  most depressing things for me this year.

The development is happening - just taking longer than we thought.

http://otblog.net/2014/05/voting-pools-stop-plague-bitcoin-heists-thefts-hacks-scams-losses/

https://github.com/monetas/btcwallet/commits/vp

[justusranvier]

2016 is 2048 after an integer overflow.

Can't tell if you guys are joking... so here's a hint:

Mine was a joke and also relevant to Bitcoin.

[S3052]

[/quote]

Not concerned about that at all. It's the accuracy of your claims I'm concerned about. especially the ones about outperforming buy and hold.

If one reads the title of your sub thread and your comments within it, one would think you've never made a trading mistake on the way up from $0.60  to $1200. If true, you should be richer than the many buy and holders who have indeed become rich over the same time period.
[/quote]

Noone is perfect and neither me.
I have had losers as well in BTC trading, no doubt. What is accurate is the outperformance vs. buy and hold and getting out at 1100-1175. Since then, did only short term trades, no position trades any more. Will get back in if the technical picture warrants it.

[cypherdoc]

You are right in most aspects except of one.

People who have sold at 1200 $ like me did not need to be stuck at mtgox. bitfinex was running smoothly at the time and withdrawals were smooth as well.

So then you should be richer than rich having sold a100% BTC portfolio @$1200 after having successfully navigated all the twists and turns on the way up from $0.60.

Not sure why you are concerned about my "richness" or lack of.
I am very happy.
Believe it or not, I did sell a lot between 1100 and 1200.
[/quote]

Not concerned about that at all. It's the accuracy of your claims I'm concerned about. especially the ones about outperforming buy and hold.

If one reads the title of your sub thread and your comments within it, one would think you've never made a trading mistake on the way up from $0.60  to $1200. If true, you should be richer than the many buy and holders who have indeed become rich over the same time period.
[/quote]

Just to put the ludicrousy in perspective, let's assume S3052 put $6000 into buying 10000 BTC @$0.60 in the middle of 2010 which is about where I can pinpoint his start in Bitcoin.  This is about 6mo  before me. Why $6000? because I know what his IRL day job is and that would not be an unreasonable amount for him.

Those 10000 BTC would be worth $12M if he just held into the top when he says he sold, a 200,000% return.  Not bad and certainly enough to thrust him into the rich category. Remember, he said his portfolio was 100% BTC at the top.

But, he says he's outperformed buy and hold with day trading by an order of magnitude which would be a 2,000,000% return. This is why he must be richer than rich.