Building a 1500mhash rig, Simple questions

[Fiyasko]

Hi, So i've recently orderd the parts to construct a 1500mhash rig, Now lets skip the details.

Probability Time For Solo
Average 3 days, 13 hours, 11 minutes
50% 2 days, 11 hours, 2 minutes
95% 10 days, 15 hours, 11 minutes

So that looks pretty nice too me, But i dont like fluctuation
So if i join Deepbit pool would i pull simmilar amounts of btc?, I think not, But the stability is nice, I'd like to wonder How Much less i'd get (i understand the 3% fee)

Solo mining would SEEM to be Very nice, grabbing a pubkey 50 block once a week on avrg looks great to me
but what kinda results would i get with 1.5ghash ina pool
Anyone run at a simmilar speed who has tested this?

Oh and is it benefitial to drop the mem clocks on the 6990's, Everyone on the hardware comparison chart uses default or higher

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[JJG]

Hi, So i've recently orderd the parts to construct a 1500mhash rig, Now lets skip the details.

Probability Time For Solo
Average 3 days, 13 hours, 11 minutes
50% 2 days, 11 hours, 2 minutes
95% 10 days, 15 hours, 11 minutes

So that looks pretty nice too me, But i dont like fluctuation
So if i join Deepbit pool would i pull simmilar amounts of btc?, I think not, But the stability is nice, I'd like to wonder How Much less i'd get (i understand the 3% fee)

Solo mining would SEEM to be Very nice, grabbing a pubkey 50 block once a week on avrg looks great to me
but what kinda results would i get with 1.5ghash ina pool
Anyone run at a simmilar speed who has tested this?

Oh and is it benefitial to drop the mem clocks on the 6990's, Everyone on the hardware comparison chart uses default or higher

Joining a pool would put you closer to the average number, minus the fees. If you don't like the fluctuation then a pool is the way to go.

You also realize that difficulty is slated to go up 33% in 10 days, right? By the time your parts show up and you get your software fully configured, your expected profits are going to be a lot less than what you calculate now. Difficulty adjustments happen every 2016 blocks, which is happening about every 11 days lately with the explosive growth of mining. So another 11 days later difficulty shoots up again and your profit falls some more. Having just shy of 3 difficulty increases every month is going to be tough to overcome if you hoped to pay this machine off with mining profits over the course of several months.

[Fiyasko]

with each difficulty increse the value usually goes up aswell

[JJG]

with each difficulty increse the value usually goes up aswell

If you're counting on value increasing, wouldn't it make more sense to buy bitcoins directly than to eat the cost of electricity + hardware depreciation?

[proudhon]

To add another perspective, when I started mining the difficulty was 92,348 and the exchange rate was 1.18USD/BTC.  That amounted to $0.25/hour.  Now, with the same hardware, at the current difficulty level, and at the current exchange rate I'm making $0.84/hour.  And that's minus 10% from average because I choose to use Pay-Per-Share.  So, at least in this case, my hourly income increased after a significant increase in difficulty.  Of course, the exchange rate could tank any time and I could do worse than when I started.  There's no way to know for sure.  

Also, I already had the hardware and/or wanted new hardware anyway for other uses (i.e. gaming), so if it does fail it won't be that much of a loss to me.  If you're buying the hardware and you wouldn't have otherwise because you otherwise have no use for it, then you're taking a much bigger risk, in my view.  So, be careful.

[proudhon]

with each difficulty increse the value usually goes up aswell

If you're counting on value increasing, wouldn't it make more sense to buy bitcoins directly than to eat the cost of electricity + hardware depreciation?

Exactly.  When I bought my hardware I bought it for two reason: (1) I wanted another gaming machine, and (2) I wanted to mine bitcoin.  I had all the hardware already except for a new GPU, but I was preparing to buy a new GPU anyway and the bitcoin factor just influenced exactly which GPU I bought.  Had I only been interested in bitcoin, and had I had more confidence at the time than I did, it would have been much wiser to spend my money on bitcoin.  Had I done so I could have more than tripled my money between now and then.

[JJG]

with each difficulty increse the value usually goes up aswell

If you're counting on value increasing, wouldn't it make more sense to buy bitcoins directly than to eat the cost of electricity + hardware depreciation?

Exactly.  When I bought my hardware I bought it for two reason: (1) I wanted another gaming machine, and (2) I wanted to mine bitcoin.  I had all the hardware already except for a new GPU, but I was preparing to buy a new GPU anyway and the bitcoin factor just influenced exactly which GPU I bought.  Had I only been interested in bitcoin, and had I had more confidence at the time than I did, it would have been much wiser to spend my money on bitcoin.  Had I done so I could have more than tripled my money between now and then.

If you already have hardware and your electricity is cheap, mining is a good choice.

I'm just amazed at how eager people are to buy new dedicated mining computers for their bitcoin investments when their success requires the exchange rate to continue moving up. If you're going to bet on the exchange rate going up, buying computer hardware isn't the most efficient way to do it.

[proudhon]

with each difficulty increse the value usually goes up aswell

If you're counting on value increasing, wouldn't it make more sense to buy bitcoins directly than to eat the cost of electricity + hardware depreciation?

Exactly.  When I bought my hardware I bought it for two reason: (1) I wanted another gaming machine, and (2) I wanted to mine bitcoin.  I had all the hardware already except for a new GPU, but I was preparing to buy a new GPU anyway and the bitcoin factor just influenced exactly which GPU I bought.  Had I only been interested in bitcoin, and had I had more confidence at the time than I did, it would have been much wiser to spend my money on bitcoin.  Had I done so I could have more than tripled my money between now and then.

If you already have hardware and your electricity is cheap, mining is a good choice.

I'm just amazed at how eager people are to buy new dedicated mining computers for their bitcoin investments when their success requires the exchange rate to continue moving up. If you're going to bet on the exchange rate going up, buying computer hardware isn't the most efficient way to do it.

I agree with you.  I think you're making a good point.

[Fiyasko]

Well i've got free electricity so thats not an issue
Im not comtemplating on getting/building the miner,
I wondering with this 24/7 miner would it be better to run solo or jump in with Slush and his 2%
Is the fluctuation of solo worth the value?
Would a pool be a better income source?
Specfically i want to know
How Much Less

[JJG]

Well i've got free electricity so thats not an issue
Im not comtemplating on getting/building the miner,
I wondering with this 24/7 miner would it be better to run solo or jump in with Slush and his 2%
Is the fluctuation of solo worth the value?
Would a pool be a better income source?
Specfically i want to know
How Much Less

It's random. You can't know.

Would you rather give up 2% for steady income or gamble and have an opportunity at more? Keep in mind gambling this way also exposes you to less income.

[Internet151]

bitcoinpool.com has no fee, I'd try that out over slush's pool.

[colossus]

Well I started 1 month ago and i can share my experience.

I have 1x5870 and 1x6870 combined at about 630 M/Hash I have been in slushes pool since the beginning of my experience. the 6870 arrived on the seen a week later.

The 5870 has found 3 blocks (4 weeks)
The 6870 has found 2 blocks (3 weeks)

So thats 5 blocks or 250BTC, through the pool i have made about 140 btc, so technically i'm down 110 vs Solo, however a few things to note, it is random i could have found more or less a friend of mine had a 5970 and he only found 1 block by the time i had my first 3.

I have seen difficulty increase and decrease, 6k when i started, then 5k, 6, 7, 9 and now finally 10k

My opinion pool for a steady income, but if you like to gamble keep one of your cards back for solo, you might make more you might not, but what might niggle at you is that with your hash rate in a pool you could make 10btc a day remember its average time, its might take 10+ days for you to find a block meaning you make 50 btc when it does but could have pooled mined double that 

I also am debating whether to buy a card for the gambling purpose or add it to a pool based on my experience, am still undecided myself, just wanted to share my experience.

[Fiyasko]

And experiance sharing is what im looking for!, Thanks!
I have one 6870XFXBE running @1ghz core pullling 290Mhashes and it has found Four blocks and i have mined 100 coins in deepbit. Mining for two months now. Not 24/7, More like 12/7

[fpgaminer]

If I had that kind of hashing power, I'd go solo, just because it seems cooler to go solo  Plus you get transaction fees (tiny though they are)!

[colossus]

Forgot to say that for first 2 weeks i was also 12/7 just doing overnight runs while burning in the rig making sure its not a fire hazard  switched to 24/7 last 2 weeks.

So you have the same experience your 100 coins down, but i see slush himself has posted he has more or less the same amount of bitcoins vs blocks he has found, like 70 something in on e of the posts and the bitcoin amount was more or less the same over time. 

So i still wonder what to do,  as there is one dude/dudette on slushs pool that has found 171 blocks (gusti) would be interested to here his thoughts on mining as he most have some serious GHash going on.

[Fiyasko]

I think i'll run it ina pool for 24hrs just to see what i get, Then im off to the races!