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Author Topic: Is this for real?  (Read 2369 times)
AndDuffy
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March 17, 2012, 07:24:23 PM
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So, this recent spike in the price of bitcoins was largely caused by one very large purchase. There was a slight rise in price after that, although that was likely due to people covering shorts and overreacting to the artificial spike. Right now, we're seeing very little market activity as people are likely sitting on their coins waiting for another spike.

At first glance I thought that we'd see another rise, less sharp than the first one, but still relatively steep. Looking at it again though, I think that this inflated price we have now is extremely artificial. One large purchase can't truly reflect the supply and demand. I think we'll see the price steadily fall from here, followed by a sharp downturn once people realize how oversold we are. In fact, I think we'll be testing a $4 floor again soon.

Thoughts?

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March 17, 2012, 07:28:43 PM
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So, this recent spike in the price of bitcoins was largely caused by one very large purchase. There was a slight rise in price after that, although that was likely due to people covering shorts and overreacting to the artificial spike. Right now, we're seeing very little market activity as people are likely sitting on their coins waiting for another spike.

At first glance I thought that we'd see another rise, less sharp than the first one, but still relatively steep. Looking at it again though, I think that this inflated price we have now is extremely artificial. One large purchase can't truly reflect the supply and demand. I think we'll see the price steadily fall from here, followed by a sharp downturn once people realize how oversold we are. In fact, I think we'll be testing a $4 floor again soon.

Thoughts?

Good luck with that.

Also, how does being oversold lead to a sharp downturn?

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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March 17, 2012, 07:40:16 PM
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So, this recent spike in the price of bitcoins was largely caused by one very large purchase. There was a slight rise in price after that, although that was likely due to people covering shorts and overreacting to the artificial spike. Right now, we're seeing very little market activity as people are likely sitting on their coins waiting for another spike.

At first glance I thought that we'd see another rise, less sharp than the first one, but still relatively steep. Looking at it again though, I think that this inflated price we have now is extremely artificial. One large purchase can't truly reflect the supply and demand. I think we'll see the price steadily fall from here, followed by a sharp downturn once people realize how oversold we are. In fact, I think we'll be testing a $4 floor again soon.

Thoughts?

"So, this recent spike in the price of bitcoins was largely caused by one very large purchase. There was a slight rise in price after that, although that was likely due to people covering shorts and overreacting to the artificial spike."

--that is pretty much how every sharp rise or fall in bitcoin has transpired.

"I think we'll see the price steadily fall from here, followed by a sharp downturn."

--and what is your evidence for this?


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March 17, 2012, 10:43:22 PM
 #4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7UYwOIvOrao
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March 17, 2012, 10:52:26 PM
 #5

Come on market!  Somebody just sold like 6K BTCs.  You should respond now by panicing.  (into my bids, kthnx)

Edit:  Also, remember everyone, it's still the weekend!  Shocked
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March 17, 2012, 11:12:06 PM
 #6

I agree that large buys & sales of 20k+ coins can move the price a good 20 cents or so.  We've seen that plenty.

However, who do we think is making these orders?

Are they all exchanges or speculators individually getting bitcoins just to store value, or do we think these are the large businesses getting fiat to pay bills?

Or are they miners each dumping their mined coins at random points in time?

how many large players can really be out there for non speculative reasons?

CampBX for buying BTCs, Coinbase for selling BTCs or Vircurex or Cryptsy for trading alternate cryptocurrencies like DOGEs

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March 18, 2012, 01:04:36 AM
 #7

Price goes up, price goes down. You can't explain that.

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March 18, 2012, 01:09:08 AM
 #8

Your not going to see a real major rally while the price sits @ $5. To rally people really need to want it & @ $5 no-one really wants it.

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March 18, 2012, 01:24:40 AM
 #9

Your not going to see a real major rally while the price sits @ $5. To rally people really need to want it & @ $5 no-one really wants it.

and how do you know this  Huh

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March 18, 2012, 01:27:03 AM
 #10

One large purchase can't truly reflect the supply and demand. I think we'll see the price steadily fall from here, followed by a sharp downturn once people realize how oversold we are. In fact, I think we'll be testing a $4 floor again soon.

Thoughts?
That purchaser used up the supply of people willing to sell their bitcoins below $5 each.

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March 18, 2012, 01:29:12 AM
 #11

One large purchase can't truly reflect the supply and demand. I think we'll see the price steadily fall from here, followed by a sharp downturn once people realize how oversold we are. In fact, I think we'll be testing a $4 floor again soon.

Thoughts?
That purchaser used up the supply of people willing to sell their bitcoins below $5 each.

+1

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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AndDuffy
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March 19, 2012, 03:49:24 PM
 #12

I don't mean to say I told you so.

But... I told you so.

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March 22, 2012, 07:29:36 AM
 #13

Seems actually fairly normal for a low market cap issue. Large player comes in, huge buy order, move the price massively, waits for the calm, sell off half to 2/3s of the position, rinse repeat, build a very large position, print money Wink

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August 06, 2012, 11:22:07 PM
 #14

Your not going to see a real major rally while the price sits @ $5. To rally people really need to want it & @ $5 no-one really wants it.

Wow how wrong you were on this.

The price stabilizing between $4 and $5 says people are hanging on to bitcoins. Oh and also the price rise to $11.30 recently.

How's that IXCOIN investment coming??

 Cheesy

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August 07, 2012, 12:07:00 AM
 #15

N-n-n-necro Breaker...

http://haschinabannedbitcoin.com
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August 07, 2012, 04:13:27 AM
 #16

We should make it a habit to revive old threads with predictions.

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August 07, 2012, 07:21:48 AM
 #17

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=98829.0

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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