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Author Topic: US kills Osama bin Laden at cost of > $400 billion  (Read 6221 times)
benjamindees
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April 15, 2012, 02:10:04 PM
 #41

But if the assassin remains anonymous after collecting the prize--which would be necessary for the system to work--how can the next assassin (or anyone else for that matter) be confident that the prize was really disbursed? It sounds like there'd be no penalty disincentivising the host organisation from simply keeping the prize money.

A few things.  First, I don't think anonymity is normally an absolute requirement.  The idea is that it's just betting on predictions, not a "prize".  The number of participants merely following the market would tend to outnumber the actual assassins which makes it difficult to distinguish between them.  Second, there would be enough edge cases in the market (elderly politicians like Castro) to enable participants to build confidence over time that the system worked.  And lastly, it's ultimately just a futures market so the disincentive is the same as any other, reputation and continuing in business taking a cut of the trades, same thing that keeps Mtgox from taking the money and running.

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April 15, 2012, 02:20:21 PM
 #42

I wonder if bin Laden shorted airline stocks before the WTC attacks.  Talk about market manipulation!

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April 15, 2012, 02:29:40 PM
 #43

I wonder if bin Laden shorted airline stocks before the WTC attacks.  Talk about market manipulation!
How do you think they finance their operations?

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April 15, 2012, 02:55:12 PM
 #44

I wonder if bin Laden shorted airline stocks before the WTC attacks.  Talk about market manipulation!

He obviously had insider information then.  Wink

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April 15, 2012, 03:06:26 PM
 #45

But if the assassin remains anonymous after collecting the prize--which would be necessary for the system to work--how can the next assassin (or anyone else for that matter) be confident that the prize was really disbursed? It sounds like there'd be no penalty disincentivising the host organisation from simply keeping the prize money.

A few things.  First, I don't think anonymity is normally an absolute requirement.  The idea is that it's just betting on predictions, not a "prize".

Correctly making a prediction gets you the prize.

Quote
The number of participants merely following the market would tend to outnumber the actual assassins which makes it difficult to distinguish between them.

I find it hard to imagine this working, since from the perspective of an assassin about to pace his 'bet' there's no guarantee that there will ultimately be enough betters to effectively hide amongst. And even with many betters, he's still exposing himself in a way that could lead to being caught. A much less risky proposition would be total anonymity, as described in assassination politics. But this has the problem of making it impossible (afaik) to confirm that prize disbursal actually happens.
Ean
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April 15, 2012, 04:00:17 PM
 #46

I wonder if bin Laden shorted airline stocks before the WTC attacks.  Talk about market manipulation!

He obviously had insider information then.  Wink

But ...
Isn't that illegal?

Quote from: Douglas Adams
The World Wide Web is the only thing I know of whose shortened form takes three times longer to say than what it's short for
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April 15, 2012, 05:17:39 PM
 #47

But if the assassin remains anonymous after collecting the prize--which would be necessary for the system to work--how can the next assassin (or anyone else for that matter) be confident that the prize was really disbursed? It sounds like there'd be no penalty disincentivising the host organisation from simply keeping the prize money.

A few things.  First, I don't think anonymity is normally an absolute requirement.  The idea is that it's just betting on predictions, not a "prize".  The number of participants merely following the market would tend to outnumber the actual assassins which makes it difficult to distinguish between them.  Second, there would be enough edge cases in the market (elderly politicians like Castro) to enable participants to build confidence over time that the system worked.  And lastly, it's ultimately just a futures market so the disincentive is the same as any other, reputation and continuing in business taking a cut of the trades, same thing that keeps Mtgox from taking the money and running.


The more difficult or impossible it becomes to effect change in out of touch, runaway central governments, mega corporations and the compounding of government corporatism with the intelligence/resource concentration capacity of such relationships it becomes increasingly necessary for such assassination marketplaces.

The US founding fathers deemed militia as capable of protecting the people from unfortunate threats to liberty.  Dark mega entities will render militia lame as it is by nature coherent and easily targeted. 

A people's CIA of sorts providing covert action will be among one of the only effective tools to check the powers of the ultra powerful.


By the way.  I bet Kim Jong Il will meet his end on 2011.12.11.  Pay me. 
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April 15, 2012, 05:23:05 PM
 #48

By the way.  I bet Kim Jong Il will meet his end on 2011.12.11.  Pay me. 

Not talking about this dude, are you?

Quote from: Douglas Adams
The World Wide Web is the only thing I know of whose shortened form takes three times longer to say than what it's short for
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