Pattern Recognition 101

[Beliathon]

Look familiar yet?

[1715157796]

1715157796

[1715157796]

1715157796

[trader001]

Self similar object?

So, next spike will bring bitcoin to astronomical level?

[1Referee]

Self similar object?

So, next spike will bring bitcoin to astronomical level?

You assume the same will happen again, which might, or might not happen. We will see that. But the price will only go up for sure. More and more merchants are accepting bitcoin, and soon you'll see in most shops the bitcoin accepted here logo.

[Beliathon]

Self similar object?

So, next spike will bring bitcoin to astronomical level?

With regards to Bitcoin, "astronomical" is always relative to where you stand in time.

600 would be astronomical to someone looking at Bitcoin 18 months ago. 60 would seem terrible to someone looking at Bitcoin today.

Bitcoin is always approaching infinity relative to fiat money value. That's what happens when you put a deflationary, limited-supply form of money in the same place and time as an inflationary, unlimited-supply form of money. It's inevitable.

[DooMAD]

I'm suddenly reminded of the Propellerheads song, History Repeating:

The word is about, there's something evolving,
whatever may come, the world keeps revolving
They say the next big thing is here,
that the (bitcoin) revolution's near,
but to me it seems quite clear
that it's all just a little bit of history repeating  


Would be nice if history repeats itself again, but it's an open market and there's no guarantee of anything.  It's probably going to go up, but I doubt it'll be in quite as spectacular a fashion as last time.

[cypherdoc]

Self similar object?

So, next spike will bring bitcoin to astronomical level?

With regards to Bitcoin, "astronomical" is always relative to where you stand in time.

600 would be astronomical to someone looking at Bitcoin 18 months ago. 60 would seem terrible to someone looking at Bitcoin today.

Bitcoin is always approaching infinity relative to fiat money value. That's what happens when you put a deflationary, limited-supply form of money in the same place and time as an inflationary, unlimited-supply form of money. It's inevitable.

I like your thinking

[InwardContour]

Looking at that pattern seems that we will be facing a long period of stagnation, only after that (1 year?)
a new rally will come and throw the value to new all time highs.

[ljudotina]

So bascly, first it will come slow drop down to 500's level, and than launch to the moon? I like that scenario!

[Beliathon]

Looking at that pattern seems that we will be facing a long period of stagnation, only after that (1 year?)

Perhaps, but I doubt it. The wheels in the Bitcoin world are spinning much, much faster today than they were 18 months ago.

[franky1]

can people stop waiting around sitting on their hands thinking about the bitcoin price magically spiking. instead can you think of something practical to do to actually make bitcoin more user friendly, more acceptable via merchants and customers. and give bitcoin a reason to spike.

everyone seems to be sat there praying for big whales to buy in and doing nothing to help the community, or the bitcoin infrustructure.

these people.. are not bitcoiners, they are fiat investors waiting for the day they can cash out.., so if your waiting for price rises more so then being able to buy a loaf of bread and a stick of ram from your local store using bitcoin.. then you are one of those fiat investors that needs to change your mindset

[Beliathon]

can people stop waiting around sitting on their hands thinking about the bitcoin price magically spiking.

What makes you think that's what we're doing? Spreading the truth about Bitcoin is helping Bitcoin, and the world.

these people.. are not bitcoiners, they are fiat investors waiting for the day they can cash out..,

Nice blanket generalization there Franky. Can't speak for anyone else, but I have no intention of ever "cashing out". Trading an appreciating asset for a depreciating one is the epitome of foolishness.

Damn man, I usually like your posts. Oh well, can't win em all.

[franky1]

can people stop waiting around sitting on their hands thinking about the bitcoin price magically spiking.

What makes you think that's what we're doing? Spreading the truth about Bitcoin is helping Bitcoin, and the world.

these people.. are not bitcoiners, they are fiat investors waiting for the day they can cash out..,

Nice blanket generalization there Franky. Can't speak for anyone else, but I have no intention of ever "cashing out". Trading an appreciating asset for a depreciating one is the epitome of foolishness.

Damn man, I usually like your posts. Oh well, can't win em all.

just had a bad, day. i had 10 conversations this morning all with people talking about the price and when the next spike is (referring to the graph in OP) so that people can cash out.

to me i never even care about the price. all i care about is a 1% spread between the buy and sell price, as thats where the gains are. anyone that cares about the fiat price has ambitions to sell out

[DjPxH]

Look familiar yet?

You actually drew the first red rectangle at the wrong place. Right now it suggests that we're still in for the real consolidation-down phase! But I guess you're implying that we're about to enter another bubble.
So yeah, the pattern is there. And even if I'm at least somewhat skeptical of TA, they do tend to end in self-fulfilling prophecies at times!!!

[spazzdla]

So you're saying we drop to $300 ish then fly up to 3kish?

[DjPxH]

So you're saying we drop to $300 ish then fly up to 3kish?

Ha yeah, his chart indeed does suggest that. But like I said before, he probably got the exact timeframe of the smaller red rectangle wrong. It should end at the September recovery point of last year. At least I hope we're there now

[williamj2543]

Of course I hope for a massive spike in price, but just because a pattern on a graph happened before doesn't mean it will happen again.

[DjPxH]

Of course I hope for a massive spike in price, but just because a pattern on a graph happened before doesn't mean it will happen again.

No, but since it already happened multiple times before it may create some kind of positive-reinforcement loop and thus create a self-fulfilling prophecy. Just because people believe in the bubble suddenly actually is what makes the bubble appear. Some Star Trek timetravel shit right there, huh?

[ajareselde]

So , you are telling me that i can sell now, and buy back 30-50% cheaper before the next bubble happens ?
:trlf:

[addroup]

With all the good news of the last months I think that the value will raise soon.

[alexeft]

Of course I hope for a massive spike in price, but just because a pattern on a graph happened before doesn't mean it will happen again.

All of this has happened before, and all of it will happen again...and again...and again....
MUHAHHAHAHAHAA!!!!!!

[alexeft]

I like the chart but one thing troubles me. Does the self similar shape get bigger only vertically or horizontally as well?

[alexeft]

Now that I found the video....


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bOy3RNyWME

[Benjig]

So what about the pattern that says we are going down before the rally? that is saying the chart

[EricTyle]

Cant figure out how to upload picture

http://imgur.com/MdaQ6cZ

If patterns continue, I'd say that we're looking at 4-5 mo for another rally and a gradual increase over the proceeding quarter year

[smoothie]

lol i see very little similarity. 

[bassclef]

looks much better on a log scale

[minerpumpkin]

looks much better on a log scale

Everything looks beautiful and simple on a log-scale!

[InwardContour]

So what about the pattern that says we are going down before the rally? that is saying the chart

The charts seems to tell the truth, we saw a little drop in these days (unexpected from me),
but now should be the right time to start this long awaited rally to a new all time high.

[yayayo]

You can always see what you want to see.

These patterns aren't that similar. If you can freely choose two timespans out of all the data, you will surely find some that are similar to some degree. That's nothing magic, because you would also find similarities in purely random data, if you are free to choose and have no restrictions on the extent of similarity.

Moreover, there is no proof that specific patterns in the past predict specific outcomes in future.

ya.ya.yo!

[BitcoinMillionaire]

Look familiar yet?

Yes, BABY! This is what's happening. I wish I could buy even more BTC... Son I could even be a Bitcoin BILLIONAIRE!

[giveBTCpls]

Yup, I also spotted this figure, you can even draw a nice fractal out of this data. I personally expect to test the 400's with a very steady price for a while, then something will trigger the price go ape shit to stablish new ceilings, of course this something always being more and more people being aware on bitcoin.

[trader001]

Technical indicator pointing price going down.

[DrG]

I wonder if the Chinese who were throwing money at BTC and LTC last year were looking at the graphs or if they were just doing something their friend told them to do.  How many people on this forum do you think are trying to get family and friends to invest without looking at graphs.

Some traders may trade on graphs but MtGox, Pirate, forks and SR don't follow fractal patterns.

[unpure]

I wonder if the Chinese who were throwing money at BTC and LTC last year were looking at the graphs or if they were just doing something their friend told them to do.  How many people on this forum do you think are trying to get family and friends to invest without looking at graphs.

Some traders may trade on graphs but MtGox, Pirate, forks and SR don't follow fractal patterns.

Some of the Chinese are just using bitcoin to get the money out of the country.