$500,000 per Bitcoin, baby. The math behind it.

[smooth]

The OP does not use any facts to support why bitcoin would be such a large part of the global economy. I personally think that bitcoin will be successful over the long term but I don't think it will ever reach reserve currency status which would essentially be needed to reach these numbers.

There are other ways to get close. For example, replacing gold as a store of value gets to about $100K. That likely wouldn't happen for decades though.

[piramida]

A cheap lottery ticket for living next the beach dream.

Bought 1 bitcoin. Hopefully will have 5 before year end.

If only I had spent the money that I used to buy lottery tickets back in 2011 on Bitcoin instead. Back then, Bitcoin was the real lottery ticket. You could hardly buy anything with it and the chances of it going mainstream were slim. Even though the odds were stacked against you, the potential rewards would have been enormous. Who knew that Bitcoin would be where it is today.

Don't beat yourself up.  It was very, VERY hard to buy bitcoin in 2011.  You pretty much had to find a miner to deal with directly.

or go to gox of course

[Bittings]

A cheap lottery ticket for living next the beach dream.

Bought 1 bitcoin. Hopefully will have 5 before year end.

If only I had spent the money that I used to buy lottery tickets back in 2011 on Bitcoin instead. Back then, Bitcoin was the real lottery ticket. You could hardly buy anything with it and the chances of it going mainstream were slim. Even though the odds were stacked against you, the potential rewards would have been enormous. Who knew that Bitcoin would be where it is today.

Don't beat yourself up.  It was very, VERY hard to buy bitcoin in 2011.  You pretty much had to find a miner to deal with directly.

or go to gox of course

It was quite simple for me:

Bank Account -> Dwolla -> Gox

[leex1528]

Bitcoin is the 3rd revolution I'm living through

1st revolution was Personal Computer's which are now tablets and smartphones to many (1980's-2000's)
2nd revolution was The Net the age of instant free info (1990's-2000's)
3rd revolution was Digital Cryptocurrency (2010's-)

I honestly believe most here will be telling our grand kids about a thing we used to have called money that evil governments printed at will to fuel stupid wars.

They will ask, "Gramps, how did you become so rich?"

You will say, "Because I SAW THE REVOLUTION COMING and put lots of worthless government notes into tech notes you call BITCOIN."

After you've been front lines in a couple of revolutions you start to see them coming.

BITCOIN is like the Internet and the personal computer. It is the NEXT revolution.

Bitcoin had four ten-fold growth bubbles:

• $0.05 per bitcoin. The start.
• $0.50 per bitcoin. First tenfold bubble
• $5.00 per bitcoin. Next tenfold bubble
• $50.00 per bitcoin. Next tenfold bubble
• $500.00 per bitcoin. Our current bubble

Next bubbles:

• $5,000 per bitcoin.
• $50,000 per bitcoin.
• $500,000 per bitcoin.

For $5,000 to happen you need ONLY 0.1% acceptance of world population for Bitcoin. We are at 0.01% now.

$50,000 is just 1% of Gross World Product by Bitcoin. This produces the $50,000 bubble.

$500,000 per Bitcoin is just 10% Gross World Product by Bitcoin.

Can Bitcoin hit 10% growth of population?

Credit cards did and they reject 90% of the world.

Bitcoin rejects no one.

So Bitcoin will go in trade where Visa/Mastercard refuse to go.

So way over 10% of Gross World Product can eventually be Bitcoin.

10% of Gross World Product is $8.5 trillion.

Divide 12M coins into $8.5 trillion

$500,000 Bitcoin baby.



- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

The original poster of this was not me. Full credit goes to this guy "domainbrokers". I liked his post so much that I wanted to share it.

The math behind this is so bad...You are basically saying Bitcoin is 100% dependent on how many people use it and not  how much they spend on it.  With the price fluxating from 650-400 we must be having a lot of people "stop" using it and then "start using it very quickly all of the time...

[giveBTCpls]

You need Bitcoin in ebay before you can start dreaming on 6 figure clouds. Once Bitcoin is in ebay, then you are into something, because everyone and their mother uses ebay to buy things and they would rather use BTC than get raped by paypal fees.

[CoinDiver]

You need Bitcoin in ebay before you can start dreaming on 6 figure clouds. Once Bitcoin is in ebay, then you are into something, because everyone and their mother uses ebay to buy things and they would rather use BTC than get raped by paypal fees.

eBay = PayPal

[DannyElfman]

I think you overestimate the network growth speed. That said, that price is very much liekly, but not in your timeframe!

[scryptasicminer]

How soon till 500,000?

5 to 10 years are good enough for me.

[Possum577]

To say "there are no other ways" to do something almost certainly confirms that there are...let's get some data together!

The OP does not use any facts to support why bitcoin would be such a large part of the global economy. I personally think that bitcoin will be successful over the long term but I don't think it will ever reach reserve currency status which would essentially be needed to reach these numbers.

There are other ways to get close. For example, replacing gold as a store of value gets to about $100K. That likely wouldn't happen for decades though.

[Possum577]

You need Bitcoin in ebay before you can start dreaming on 6 figure clouds. Once Bitcoin is in ebay, then you are into something, because everyone and their mother uses ebay to buy things and they would rather use BTC than get raped by paypal fees.

How would BTC as a payment option via eBay increase the price per Bitcoin?

[CoinDiver]

You need Bitcoin in ebay before you can start dreaming on 6 figure clouds. Once Bitcoin is in ebay, then you are into something, because everyone and their mother uses ebay to buy things and they would rather use BTC than get raped by paypal fees.

How would BTC as a payment option via eBay increase the price per Bitcoin?

You have to hold them for at least a small amount of time to spend them. Worst case, they're purchased, transferred, then converted back to fiat in a matter of seconds. Still, that's a few bitcoin seconds removed from the market. Supply and demand.

[smooth]

You need Bitcoin in ebay before you can start dreaming on 6 figure clouds. Once Bitcoin is in ebay, then you are into something, because everyone and their mother uses ebay to buy things and they would rather use BTC than get raped by paypal fees.

How would BTC as a payment option via eBay increase the price per Bitcoin?

You have to hold them for at least a small amount of time to spend them. Worst case, they're purchased, transferred, then converted back to fiat in a matter of seconds. Still, that's a few bitcoin seconds removed from the market. Supply and demand.

Laziness and convenience would increase holding much more than that. If you get $30 worth of BTC for an item on ebay you probably just hold it, especially if there are plenty of places to spend BTC. You are probably not going to worry about exchange rate risk on $30. Ebay traders are not miners.

[ThatDGuy]

You need Bitcoin in ebay before you can start dreaming on 6 figure clouds. Once Bitcoin is in ebay, then you are into something, because everyone and their mother uses ebay to buy things and they would rather use BTC than get raped by paypal fees.

How would BTC as a payment option via eBay increase the price per Bitcoin?

You have to hold them for at least a small amount of time to spend them. Worst case, they're purchased, transferred, then converted back to fiat in a matter of seconds. Still, that's a few bitcoin seconds removed from the market. Supply and demand.

This is correct.  Also if we eventually get to the point where Bitcoin is usable as payment for almost everything and there are advantages financially for the spender choosing to use it over, say Paypal or a credit card, then it follows that most people would want to hold on to a certain amount of Bitcoin to use for spending purposes.

It stands to reason that Bitcoin offers advantages in certain situations for the consumer as well as the supplier as a payment method over Paypal/CC.  If that propagates out, there is an increased demand and the supply of Bitcoin - which is finite - never changes.  The value would have to go up.

[findftp]

<snip>. If you had 100 bitcoins and the price is 10,000 USD each that is 1,000,000 USD man. That is more than enough to put into stocks/retirement account and do whatever the hell you want for the rest of your life.
<snip>

Yes, let's lock up your wealth into a retirement plan!
God knows when they pull the dollar plug and let it hyperinflate.

You would be *crazy* to put 1,000,000 into stocks or any other paper.
If you really are scared to hold that much value in bitcoins, transfer it into another tangible asset like gold, farmland, art, tools, cars, etc.

If I had 1,000,000USD right now, I would keep 10,000USD for spending, everything else in the above.

[Possum577]

The net result of that transaction is neither increase or decrease. It's a wash!

In your E.g., I need to buy something on eBay for BTC0.10 so I convert $60 to BTC0.10 to buy my good. If the seller than converts the Bitcoin he received for USD again there would be no price (or supply/demand) consequence.

Perhaps eBay get's more people buying BTC to hold for future purchases, but why? If I can buy in BTC and USD and I get paid by my employer in USD, what's the reason for me to transfer to BTC? It wouldn't be more convenient. It wouldn't guarantee me a better price.

eBay BTC acceptance is good for greater adoption but that doesn't lead to "6 figure clouds" price per BTC (in USD.) There's no correlation.

There WOULD be correlation if the Winklevoss boys get there investment fund going.

You need Bitcoin in ebay before you can start dreaming on 6 figure clouds. Once Bitcoin is in ebay, then you are into something, because everyone and their mother uses ebay to buy things and they would rather use BTC than get raped by paypal fees.

How would BTC as a payment option via eBay increase the price per Bitcoin?

You have to hold them for at least a small amount of time to spend them. Worst case, they're purchased, transferred, then converted back to fiat in a matter of seconds. Still, that's a few bitcoin seconds removed from the market. Supply and demand.

[DannyElfman]

<snip>. If you had 100 bitcoins and the price is 10,000 USD each that is 1,000,000 USD man. That is more than enough to put into stocks/retirement account and do whatever the hell you want for the rest of your life.
<snip>

Yes, let's lock up your wealth into a retirement plan!
God knows when they pull the dollar plug and let it hyperinflate.

You would be *crazy* to put 1,000,000 into stocks or any other paper.
If you really are scared to hold that much value in bitcoins, transfer it into another tangible asset like gold, farmland, art, tools, cars, etc.

If I had 1,000,000USD right now, I would keep 10,000USD for spending, everything else in the above.

Stocks are not ultimately dependend on FIAT. Sure they would suffer extremely, but not like FIAT itself. Not having stock in your portfolio would be a huge mistake.

[bigasic]

If it even gets close to 100k in my life time, I will be thrilled.

[findftp]

<snip>. If you had 100 bitcoins and the price is 10,000 USD each that is 1,000,000 USD man. That is more than enough to put into stocks/retirement account and do whatever the hell you want for the rest of your life.
<snip>

Yes, let's lock up your wealth into a retirement plan!
God knows when they pull the dollar plug and let it hyperinflate.

You would be *crazy* to put 1,000,000 into stocks or any other paper.
If you really are scared to hold that much value in bitcoins, transfer it into another tangible asset like gold, farmland, art, tools, cars, etc.

If I had 1,000,000USD right now, I would keep 10,000USD for spending, everything else in the above.

Stocks are not ultimately dependend on FIAT. Sure they would suffer extremely, but not like FIAT itself. Not having stock in your portfolio would be a huge mistake.

I wish I could dump them all but too bad that worthless shit is locked in a mortgage and pension fund.
I would love to convert all paper assets to anything else than paper.
I don't need/want the paper promises which cannot be fulfilled.
I rather invest in knowledge. Knowledge and experience cannot be taken away from you unless you become mentally ill.

[DannyElfman]

<snip>. If you had 100 bitcoins and the price is 10,000 USD each that is 1,000,000 USD man. That is more than enough to put into stocks/retirement account and do whatever the hell you want for the rest of your life.
<snip>

Yes, let's lock up your wealth into a retirement plan!
God knows when they pull the dollar plug and let it hyperinflate.

You would be *crazy* to put 1,000,000 into stocks or any other paper.
If you really are scared to hold that much value in bitcoins, transfer it into another tangible asset like gold, farmland, art, tools, cars, etc.

If I had 1,000,000USD right now, I would keep 10,000USD for spending, everything else in the above.

Stocks are not ultimately dependend on FIAT. Sure they would suffer extremely, but not like FIAT itself. Not having stock in your portfolio would be a huge mistake.

I wish I could dump them all but too bad that worthless shit is locked in a mortgage and pension fund.
I would love to convert all paper assets to anything else than paper.
I don't need/want the paper promises which cannot be fulfilled.
I rather invest in knowledge. Knowledge and experience cannot be taken away from you unless you become mentally ill.

That is a rather radical point of view.

I agree that knowledge and education and experience is the most important thing, but I don't get your hate against companies. Investing directly in companies is no option for you either?

[findftp]

<snip>. If you had 100 bitcoins and the price is 10,000 USD each that is 1,000,000 USD man. That is more than enough to put into stocks/retirement account and do whatever the hell you want for the rest of your life.
<snip>

Yes, let's lock up your wealth into a retirement plan!
God knows when they pull the dollar plug and let it hyperinflate.

You would be *crazy* to put 1,000,000 into stocks or any other paper.
If you really are scared to hold that much value in bitcoins, transfer it into another tangible asset like gold, farmland, art, tools, cars, etc.

If I had 1,000,000USD right now, I would keep 10,000USD for spending, everything else in the above.

Stocks are not ultimately dependend on FIAT. Sure they would suffer extremely, but not like FIAT itself. Not having stock in your portfolio would be a huge mistake.

I wish I could dump them all but too bad that worthless shit is locked in a mortgage and pension fund.
I would love to convert all paper assets to anything else than paper.
I don't need/want the paper promises which cannot be fulfilled.
I rather invest in knowledge. Knowledge and experience cannot be taken away from you unless you become mentally ill.

That is a rather radical point of view.

I agree that knowledge and education and experience is the most important thing, but I don't get your hate against companies. Investing directly in companies is no option for you either?

I don't hate companies! I hate the empty promises made by stockbrokers.
Because you don't own the stocks which you think you own.
The day that stock ownership is hard-coded in the bitcoin blockchain I'm all in! (well, not exactly all-in, but you get my point)