I've Never Been More Bullish

[Razick]

Warning: I can't write at 4am. Yes, I am an idiot for trying. No, you do not get a refund.

If you read over some of my previous posts you'll find that I've often been somewhat bearish when it comes to Bitcoin's price (although I've always believed in its long term prospects). I haven't been entirely right with my predictions in the past, but I haven't been entirely wrong either. Ever since I started following Bitcoin I have, with a few exceptions felt that it is generally overpriced. That doesn't mean I haven't found times I felt comfortable buying in, but I often felt as though cheaper coins were just around the corner, which caused me to hold back more than I should have. Having started following Bitcoin in 2012 I should have a lot of money right now, but what little I did make was lost in Bitfloor and MtGox (Screw you Roman Stylman, you are a thief).

So why am I telling you this? I'm telling you this because despite one of the most bearish moods in this forum I've seen, I have never been more Bullish than I am now. I believe very strongly that right now is a great time to buy. Why? Since the beginning of the year prices have fallen by a lot but--other than some sucky exchanges failing--we've had almost nothing but good news: Major companies such as DISH, Expedia and Dell have begun accepting Bitcoin along with thousands of smaller merchants; companies such as Coinbase, Circle and ANX have introduced powerful new services that will open Bitcoin up to the average Joe; and best of all Bitcoin has become much less mysterious and gained some much needed legitimacy.

Bitcoin is not just a toy for libertarians and technology enthusiasts anymore... it's become a household name. We've seen Bitcoin's price fall 50% despite only getting stronger. The way I see it, people who purchase Bitcoin today are paying much less for a much "better" product than people who purchased in the excitement of late last years massive rally.

Not to mention there are some exiting patterns for followers of technical analysis... if you are in to that sort of thing.

Sure, Bitcoin could go down, and probably will for at least a few more days or perhaps even weeks, but if you felt Bitcoin was a good buy last year at $600 when it had much less going for it, then surely it's a good buy at $600 now. One of the few things holding Bitcoin back right now is it's falling value... but I feel that we are bottoming out. This correction has allowed Bitcoin to develop a firm support backed up by strong fundamentals on which future growth can be built.

I don't expect to get rich, and I refuse to claim that we'll see the $5000 number many have suggested any time soon. But would I be surprised? Not really. What I will claim is that I would be very surprised indeed to see Bitcoin end the year at less than $800 and I find it very likely that we will at least see $1,200 again.

It's up to you to decide what to do, but let me say this: The time to buy is when other people are selling. Don't buy when everyone else is bidding up the price to ridiculous levels... buy when everyone else is selling at a discount. I believe that time is now.

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[Hunyadi]

Excellent post! Couldn't agree more. I also feel that the sentiment on the forums is getting better for rising prices. Before perhaps there were too many how were certain there will be a bubble soon.

Considering infrastructure, mining profitability, "Wallstreet money" etc. it is quite clear that bitcoin is currently dirt cheap. However, that doesn't mean it couldn't go lower 

[bomb177]

There were too many good news in this period, the price should rise in the next weeks.

[falllling]

There were too many good news in this period, the price should rise in the next weeks.

nope, the price is dropping and will have a huge dump, Razick is going to lose $$$ if he doesn't cut lose now

[niktitan132]

There were too many good news in this period, the price should rise in the next weeks.

nope, the price is dropping and will have a huge dump, Razick is going to lose $$$ if he doesn't cut lose now

Falllling you should stop spreading bad news about the price...

[maker88]

There were too many good news in this period, the price should rise in the next weeks.

nope, the price is dropping and will have a huge dump, Razick is going to lose $$$ if he doesn't cut lose now

the word is LOSSES failure, LOSSES not LOSE. learn to spell you moron, also the price is not dropping. its 30$ over what you said it would be dropping to within 24 hours like 4 days ago. its like you try and be more wrong with every post...just shut up already.

[InwardContour]

There were too many good news in this period, the price should rise in the next weeks.

nope, the price is dropping and will have a huge dump, Razick is going to lose $$$ if he doesn't cut lose now

the word is LOSSES failure, LOSSES not LOSE. learn to spell you moron, also the price is not dropping. its 30$ over what you said it would be dropping to within 24 hours like 4 days ago. its like you try and be more wrong with every post...just shut up already.

Don't feed the troll, I'm almost sure he's making these posts just for fun, to read and laugh at the users reactions.
His main account is a different one.

[Razick]

Everyone is welcome to post their opinion, but if you disagree with me, please explain why you feel the way you do. Honestly, I am totally okay with the risk of losing what I invest. I only invest what I am willing to lose. I feel that it's a good investment because for every $10 I invest I could earn as much as $100 pretty quickly... but I can only lose the $10.

[boraf]

Everyone is welcome to post their opinion, but if you disagree with me, please explain why you feel the way you do. Honestly, I am totally okay with the risk of losing what I invest. I only invest what I am willing to lose. I feel that it's a good investment because for every $10 I invest I could earn as much as $100 pretty quickly... but I can only lose the $10.

The cost of each coin is around 600 dollars. So you will lose 600 dollars per coin if bitcoin become useless.

[Razick]

Everyone is welcome to post their opinion, but if you disagree with me, please explain why you feel the way you do. Honestly, I am totally okay with the risk of losing what I invest. I only invest what I am willing to lose. I feel that it's a good investment because for every $10 I invest I could earn as much as $100 pretty quickly... but I can only lose the $10.

The cost of each coin is around 600 dollars. So you will lose 600 dollars per coin if bitcoin become useless.

The price doesn't matter. I can only lose what I invest.

[aminorex]

The cost of each coin is around 600 dollars. So you will lose 600 dollars per coin if bitcoin become useless.

And how, pray tell, might bitcoin become useless?  My breath is bated.

[Febo]

How? Silly you. Armageddon will start and paradise will come to earth. So simple answer. Why you will need votes or money or whatever in place where you already have everything?

[inca]

How? Silly you. Armageddon will start and paradise will come to earth. So simple answer. Why you will need votes or money or whatever in place where you already have everything?

So your main argument for the failure of bitcoin is literally 'the end of the world'?

The trolls on here aren't trying as hard as the usual suspects on reddit. Traders vs paid disinformation shills I suspect.

[Markos]

I think we need desperation phase to clear the market and start a healthy growth...
So we will have a repeat of autumn 2011

[falllling]

I think we need desperation phase to clear the market and start a healthy growth...
So we will have a repeat of autumn 2011

the huge dump and desperation phase are coming

[inca]

I think we need desperation phase to clear the market and start a healthy growth...
So we will have a repeat of autumn 2011

Actually all we need is a little bump upwards towards 680. I don't sense desperation anywhere. Stagnant prices in a sea of good news.


Whoever is continually dumping will exhaust their supply of coins soon..

[fdiini]

The cost to put additional coin into the network is getting higher and higher.

We already know many are hoarding for a long time. If they didn't sell at 1000+, they are not going to sell now.

With supply shrinking, cost needs to go up to bring additional supply into the market.

[Markos]

Actually all we need is a little bump upwards towards 680. I don't sense desperation anywhere. Stagnant prices in a sea of good news.


Whoever is continually dumping will exhaust their supply of coins soon..

The longer price remains in consolidation, the bigger price's increase we will see. Temporary decline to 200-300 doesn't interfere with the consolidation in long term.

[inca]

Actually all we need is a little bump upwards towards 680. I don't sense desperation anywhere. Stagnant prices in a sea of good news.


Whoever is continually dumping will exhaust their supply of coins soon..

The longer price remains in consolidation, the bigger price's increase we will see. Temporary decline to 200-300 doesn't interfere with the consolidation in long term.

It seems obvious that a lot of coins are changing hands with the price remaining stable. This accumulation phase will not go on forever. Anything can happen but i doubt we retest the 2xx range. It would likely damage bitcoin for many months if not longer. Ultimately the vast majority of actors in the space want higher prices. Even a determined bad actor (say a central bank funded rogue player) cannot stop the market functioning if adoption levels rise rapidly.

[removebeforeflight]

Good post; this is all about adoption and
recognition. And both keep on growing.

[Razick]

The cost of each coin is around 600 dollars. So you will lose 600 dollars per coin if bitcoin become useless.

And how, pray tell, might bitcoin become useless?  My breath is bated.

The only thing I can see happening is a major weakness being discovered that either can't be fixed easily, or causes to much loss before it is fixes; or something else much better being invented.

I don't see either happening in the next year or so, but who knows.

[Habeler876]

The cost of each coin is around 600 dollars. So you will lose 600 dollars per coin if bitcoin become useless.

And how, pray tell, might bitcoin become useless?  My breath is bated.

How about this: either through government blackouts or acts of God (), widespread loss of internet access. If price is linked to network size and utility, well then, that presents an ugly scenario for price.

[cbeast]

The cost of each coin is around 600 dollars. So you will lose 600 dollars per coin if bitcoin become useless.

And how, pray tell, might bitcoin become useless?  My breath is bated.

How about this: either through government blackouts or acts of God (), widespread loss of internet access. If price is linked to network size and utility, well then, that presents an ugly scenario for price.

Don't forget nuclear annihilation or alien invasion.

[BTCtrader71]

The cost of each coin is around 600 dollars. So you will lose 600 dollars per coin if bitcoin become useless.

And how, pray tell, might bitcoin become useless?  My breath is bated.

How about this: either through government blackouts or acts of God (), widespread loss of internet access. If price is linked to network size and utility, well then, that presents an ugly scenario for price.

Don't forget nuclear annihilation or alien invasion.

Don't forget SHARKNADO!

[byronbb]

Whenever you see a discount for using bitcoin it means someone is willing to pay more than spot for coins. This is a very good way to acquire coins off exchange. While there is some slippage in the short term, in the longer term, the market remains untouched, ie one's buying does not move the market higher. This is how the smart guys are acquiring coins right now. They are making deals with online retailers and willing to pay a slight premium over the very exchange price they are stomping with shorts.

[Zohann]

I've invested over 90k, and still am buying...  and I'm underwater on it.. But WTF.. it drops to 300 I'll just buy 90K more... I don't see EC being broken anytime soon.

[Habeler876]

I've invested over 90k, and still am buying...  and I'm underwater on it.. But WTF.. it drops to 300 I'll just buy 90K more... I don't see EC being broken anytime soon.

Sounds good man. But $90k just isn't gonna go that far. How about $900k? That might make a bit of a dent in this sell pressure.

[Zohann]

I've invested over 90k, and still am buying...  and I'm underwater on it.. But WTF.. it drops to 300 I'll just buy 90K more... I don't see EC being broken anytime soon.

Sounds good man. But $90k just isn't gonna go that far. How about $900k? That might make a bit of a dent in this sell pressure.

I hear ya.. I ain't trying to hold up the market by any means and don't have the funds to do so...  but collectively I think there's many more that want in BTC than out..   "Do what you will, the capital is at hazzard".

[qwerty555]

Aug 1 st was approx $50 million of speculative money that will be in for at least the medium term as this is the 1st day in a while the average trade in $ was significantly higher than the currently $50M ish daily average ....since July 1 and 2. They will also buy steadily in drops in price.   If it ever gets to $400 ( unlikely) even smaller players like me will buy in again substantially..raising the price again. I do not think that a drop to $400 is a realistic possibility given current conditions and it is more likely that after the weaker holders have been shaken out around the $600 level the next push upward to test $700 will kick in.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=635667.msg7082530#msg7082530

Accumulation by big players continues and they will not sell in the medium term unless uber bad news hits the fan (like another exchange folding up)

http://www.quandl.com/BCHAIN/ETRVU-Bitcoin-Estimated-Transaction-Volume-USD