goyetus (OP)
Newbie
 Offline
Activity: 32
Merit: 0
|
 |
August 06, 2014, 05:19:13 PM |
|
Im really disapointed...... just wanting to buy a few Antminer S3 cause I can use them at work where I have no electricity fee......... I was seeing the ROI , using this calculator: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculatorPlease, can someone help me??? I dont understand why ROI is impossible even without electricity fee........ or this calculator is not accurate???
Thanks!!!
https://i.imgur.com/zoChzfL.png |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
"Governments are good at cutting off the heads of a centrally
controlled
networks like Napster, but pure P2P networks like Gnutella and Tor seem
to be holding their own." -- Satoshi
|
|
|
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Josepht
|
|
August 06, 2014, 05:23:05 PM |
|
The hardware price isn't 600$, but 400$  Edit: A difficulty increase of 20% for the next months isn't going to happen in my opinion. |
|
|
|
|
cloverme
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1054
SpacePirate.io
|
|
August 06, 2014, 05:34:46 PM |
|
That calculator has never been accurate for me, at all... it's never returned a correct btc est. value for me. I just avoid it... I find this one to be more accurate: http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ |
|
|
|
|
goyetus (OP)
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 32
Merit: 0
|
|
August 06, 2014, 05:35:03 PM |
|
I used $ 600 with customs fee and deliver........ maybe $ 550 ??
I think 20% is accurate, I was looking Graph from blockchain , and seems a solid grow...... not?
Thanks a lot
|
|
|
|
|
|
Josepht
|
|
August 06, 2014, 05:41:33 PM |
|
Well, the price depends of course on where you live.
I don't think that a 20% increase is possible, because that'd mean that in 8 weeks the total hashing power needs to be doubled. I doubt that that will happen.
|
|
|
|
|
goyetus (OP)
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 32
Merit: 0
|
|
August 06, 2014, 05:47:21 PM
Last edit: August 06, 2014, 05:59:21 PM by goyetus |
|
Thanks a lot! I really think as you, 20% is huge and 8 weeks for double hash rate................ but on the other side, I see this chart: (about 30% every 30 days if you get the last year data) Difficulty History
Date Difficulty Change Hash Rate
Jul 25 2014 18,736,441,558 8.08% 134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014 17,336,316,979 3.08% 124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014 16,818,461,371 24.93% 120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014 13,462,580,115 14.51% 96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014 11,756,551,917 12.44% 84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014 10,455,720,138 18.10% 74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014 8,853,416,309 10.66% 63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014 8,000,872,136 14.64% 57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014 6,978,842,650 14.04% 49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014 6,119,726,089 22.23% 43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014 5,006,860,589 17.80% 35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 13 2014 4,250,217,920 11.39% 30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014 3,815,723,799 21.92% 27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 17 2014 3,129,573,175 19.39% 22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 05 2014 2,621,404,453 19.49% 18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014 2,193,847,870 22.59% 15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 13 2014 1,789,546,951 26.16% 12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 02 2014 1,418,481,395 20.12% 10,153,885 GH/s
Dec 21 2013 1,180,923,195 30.01% 8,453,378 GH/s
Dec 10 2013 908,350,862 28.41% 6,502,229 GH/s
Nov 29 2013 707,408,283 16.07% 5,063,826 GH/s
Nov 17 2013 609,482,680 19.29% 4,362,847 GH/s
Nov 05 2013 510,929,738 30.70% 3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 26 2013 390,928,788 46.02% 2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013 267,731,249 41.45% 1,916,495 GH/s
Oct 06 2013 189,281,249 27.19% 1,354,928 GH/s
Sep 25 2013 148,819,200 32.13% 1,065,289 GH/s
Sep 14 2013 112,628,549 29.56% 806,227 GH/s
Sep 04 2013 86,933,018 32.22% 622,291 GH/s
Aug 24 2013 65,750,060 29.40% 470,657 GH/s
Aug 13 2013 50,810,339 35.88% 363,715 GH/s
Aug 03 2013 37,392,766 19.63% 267,668 GH/s
Jul 22 2013 31,256,961 19.47% 223,746 GH/s
Jul 11 2013 26,162,876 22.63% 187,281 GH/s
Jun 29 2013 21,335,329 10.32% 152,724 GH/s
Jun 16 2013 19,339,258 23.92% 138,436 GH/s
Jun 05 2013 15,605,633 28.41% 111,709 GH/s
May 25 2013 12,153,412 8.64% 86,998 GH/s
May 12 2013 11,187,257 11.03% 80,082 GH/s
Apr 30 2013 10,076,293 12.28% 72,129 GH/s
Apr 17 2013 8,974,296 16.96% 64,241 GH/s
Apr 05 2013 7,673,000 14.59% 54,925 GH/s
Mar 24 2013 6,695,826 38.13% 47,931 GH/s
Mar 14 2013 4,847,647 10.98% 34,701 GH/s
Mar 01 2013 4,367,876 19.63% 31,266 GH/s
Feb 18 2013 3,651,012 11.47% 26,135 GH/s
Feb 05 2013 3,275,465 10.33% 23,447 GH/s
Jan 23 2013 2,968,775 -8.64% 21,251 GH/s
Jan 08 2013 3,249,550 9.06% 23,261 GH/s
|
|
|
|
|
|
Josepht
|
|
August 06, 2014, 06:12:15 PM |
|
Did you notice that the from the last 10 times only 2 times a increase larger than 15% took place?
|
|
|
|
|
jowaybea
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
|
|
August 06, 2014, 06:16:03 PM |
|
With the currently available hardware, there is no possible way difficulty adjustments could be 20% for 6 months. At that rate, even BitFury, MegabigPower, and CoinTerra would not be able to operate their gear at a profit. Plus, at that rate they'd have to sell more and more BTC to cover operating/electricity costs, causing BTC price to tank, and making even more hardware unprofitable. The difficulty is self adjusting, and if it got out of control like that, it could go down.
Now, when <20nm ASICS start joining the network at >5GH / Watt, things could accelerate again.
|
|
|
|
|
goyetus (OP)
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 32
Merit: 0
|
|
August 06, 2014, 06:24:03 PM |
|
Ok......thanks a lot for the answers! I see it now!!  |
|
|
|
|
|
xstr8guy
|
|
August 06, 2014, 09:41:56 PM |
|
We're just having a lull in difficulty increases. There are 100's of PHs that will be deployed in the coming months.
|
|
|
|
|
goyetus (OP)
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 32
Merit: 0
|
|
August 06, 2014, 09:50:08 PM |
|
what hardware are you talking about ?? Im not daily following the hardware forum....... Thanks! |
|
|
|
|
philipma1957
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 4102
Merit: 7764
'The right to privacy matters'
|
|
August 06, 2014, 10:07:39 PM |
|
Thanks a lot! I really think as you, 20% is huge and 8 weeks for double hash rate................ but on the other side, I see this chart: (about 30% every 30 days if you get the last year data) Difficulty History
Date Difficulty Change Hash Rate
Jul 25 2014 18,736,441,558 8.08% 134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014 17,336,316,979 3.08% 124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014 16,818,461,371 24.93% 120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014 13,462,580,115 14.51% 96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014 11,756,551,917 12.44% 84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014 10,455,720,138 18.10% 74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014 8,853,416,309 10.66% 63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014 8,000,872,136 14.64% 57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014 6,978,842,650 14.04% 49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014 6,119,726,089 22.23% 43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014 5,006,860,589 17.80% 35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 13 2014 4,250,217,920 11.39% 30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014 3,815,723,799 21.92% 27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 17 2014 3,129,573,175 19.39% 22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 05 2014 2,621,404,453 19.49% 18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014 2,193,847,870 22.59% 15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 13 2014 1,789,546,951 26.16% 12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 02 2014 1,418,481,395 20.12% 10,153,885 GH/s
Dec 21 2013 1,180,923,195 30.01% 8,453,378 GH/s
Dec 10 2013 908,350,862 28.41% 6,502,229 GH/s
Nov 29 2013 707,408,283 16.07% 5,063,826 GH/s
Nov 17 2013 609,482,680 19.29% 4,362,847 GH/s
Nov 05 2013 510,929,738 30.70% 3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 26 2013 390,928,788 46.02% 2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013 267,731,249 41.45% 1,916,495 GH/s
Oct 06 2013 189,281,249 27.19% 1,354,928 GH/s
Sep 25 2013 148,819,200 32.13% 1,065,289 GH/s
Sep 14 2013 112,628,549 29.56% 806,227 GH/s
Sep 04 2013 86,933,018 32.22% 622,291 GH/s
Aug 24 2013 65,750,060 29.40% 470,657 GH/s
Aug 13 2013 50,810,339 35.88% 363,715 GH/s
Aug 03 2013 37,392,766 19.63% 267,668 GH/s
Jul 22 2013 31,256,961 19.47% 223,746 GH/s
Jul 11 2013 26,162,876 22.63% 187,281 GH/s
Jun 29 2013 21,335,329 10.32% 152,724 GH/s
Jun 16 2013 19,339,258 23.92% 138,436 GH/s
Jun 05 2013 15,605,633 28.41% 111,709 GH/s
May 25 2013 12,153,412 8.64% 86,998 GH/s
May 12 2013 11,187,257 11.03% 80,082 GH/s
Apr 30 2013 10,076,293 12.28% 72,129 GH/s
Apr 17 2013 8,974,296 16.96% 64,241 GH/s
Apr 05 2013 7,673,000 14.59% 54,925 GH/s
Mar 24 2013 6,695,826 38.13% 47,931 GH/s
Mar 14 2013 4,847,647 10.98% 34,701 GH/s
Mar 01 2013 4,367,876 19.63% 31,266 GH/s
Feb 18 2013 3,651,012 11.47% 26,135 GH/s
Feb 05 2013 3,275,465 10.33% 23,447 GH/s
Jan 23 2013 2,968,775 -8.64% 21,251 GH/s
Jan 08 2013 3,249,550 9.06% 23,261 GH/s
you do not know how to analyze that info . break in down into segments use: june 5 2013 to dec 21 2013 avg diff was 25% next use dec 21 2013 to july 12 2014 avg diff was 18% that downward trend is real so go from july 12 2014 to jan 2 2015 you will down trend from 18% the ways I could be wrong. a new magic super asic that uses .05 watts a gh or btc price jumps to 2000 usd a coin. so buying a s-3 if you are eur based use 600 usd and 10 or 12 % not 20 % |
|
|
|
goyetus (OP)
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 32
Merit: 0
|
|
August 06, 2014, 10:36:30 PM |
|
Yes, im from EU , so my budget i think is about $ 600 each S3.
Now I see the slow progression as difficulty raise, and you are right, it´s really more accurate between 10-12%
Thanks a lot!
|
|
|
|
|
philipma1957
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 4102
Merit: 7764
'The right to privacy matters'
|
|
August 06, 2014, 11:15:29 PM |
|
Yes, im from EU , so my budget i think is about $ 600 each S3.
Now I see the slow progression as difficulty raise, and you are right, it´s really more accurate between 10-12%
Thanks a lot!
yeah we had super jumps in 2013 for many reasons. coins run up in sept -nov from 100 usd to 1100 usd. asics sold replacing gpus. in 2013 the new asics are a little better then the old asics and coins dropped in price so jumps have been less. newer asics are .6 to .75 watts not the same improvement |
|
|
|
|
xstr8guy
|
|
August 07, 2014, 02:28:22 AM
Last edit: August 07, 2014, 09:44:42 AM by xstr8guy |
|
Thanks a lot! I really think as you, 20% is huge and 8 weeks for double hash rate................ but on the other side, I see this chart: (about 30% every 30 days if you get the last year data) Difficulty History
Date Difficulty Change Hash Rate
Jul 25 2014 18,736,441,558 8.08% 134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014 17,336,316,979 3.08% 124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014 16,818,461,371 24.93% 120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014 13,462,580,115 14.51% 96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014 11,756,551,917 12.44% 84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014 10,455,720,138 18.10% 74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014 8,853,416,309 10.66% 63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014 8,000,872,136 14.64% 57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014 6,978,842,650 14.04% 49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014 6,119,726,089 22.23% 43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014 5,006,860,589 17.80% 35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 13 2014 4,250,217,920 11.39% 30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014 3,815,723,799 21.92% 27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 17 2014 3,129,573,175 19.39% 22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 05 2014 2,621,404,453 19.49% 18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014 2,193,847,870 22.59% 15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 13 2014 1,789,546,951 26.16% 12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 02 2014 1,418,481,395 20.12% 10,153,885 GH/s
Dec 21 2013 1,180,923,195 30.01% 8,453,378 GH/s
Dec 10 2013 908,350,862 28.41% 6,502,229 GH/s
Nov 29 2013 707,408,283 16.07% 5,063,826 GH/s
Nov 17 2013 609,482,680 19.29% 4,362,847 GH/s
Nov 05 2013 510,929,738 30.70% 3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 26 2013 390,928,788 46.02% 2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013 267,731,249 41.45% 1,916,495 GH/s
Oct 06 2013 189,281,249 27.19% 1,354,928 GH/s
Sep 25 2013 148,819,200 32.13% 1,065,289 GH/s
Sep 14 2013 112,628,549 29.56% 806,227 GH/s
Sep 04 2013 86,933,018 32.22% 622,291 GH/s
Aug 24 2013 65,750,060 29.40% 470,657 GH/s
Aug 13 2013 50,810,339 35.88% 363,715 GH/s
Aug 03 2013 37,392,766 19.63% 267,668 GH/s
Jul 22 2013 31,256,961 19.47% 223,746 GH/s
Jul 11 2013 26,162,876 22.63% 187,281 GH/s
Jun 29 2013 21,335,329 10.32% 152,724 GH/s
Jun 16 2013 19,339,258 23.92% 138,436 GH/s
Jun 05 2013 15,605,633 28.41% 111,709 GH/s
May 25 2013 12,153,412 8.64% 86,998 GH/s
May 12 2013 11,187,257 11.03% 80,082 GH/s
Apr 30 2013 10,076,293 12.28% 72,129 GH/s
Apr 17 2013 8,974,296 16.96% 64,241 GH/s
Apr 05 2013 7,673,000 14.59% 54,925 GH/s
Mar 24 2013 6,695,826 38.13% 47,931 GH/s
Mar 14 2013 4,847,647 10.98% 34,701 GH/s
Mar 01 2013 4,367,876 19.63% 31,266 GH/s
Feb 18 2013 3,651,012 11.47% 26,135 GH/s
Feb 05 2013 3,275,465 10.33% 23,447 GH/s
Jan 23 2013 2,968,775 -8.64% 21,251 GH/s
Jan 08 2013 3,249,550 9.06% 23,261 GH/s
you do not know how to analyze that info . break in down into segments use: june 5 2013 to dec 21 2013 avg diff was 25% next use dec 21 2013 to july 12 2014 avg diff was 18% that downward trend is real so go from july 12 2014 to jan 2 2015 you will down trend from 18% the ways I could be wrong. a new magic super asic that uses .05 watts a gh or btc price jumps to 2000 usd a coin. so buying a s-3 if you are eur based use 600 usd and 10 or 12 % not 20 % Ugh! Two data points don't signify a trend. It was just over a month ago that we had a 25% difficulty increase. There are going to be many shocked and disappointed miners when it happens again... soon. |
|
|
|
|
|
xstr8guy
|
|
August 07, 2014, 02:32:15 AM |
|
what hardware are you talking about ?? Im not daily following the hardware forum....... Thanks! ASICMiner, Bitfury, BitMain, KNC, Spoondoolies and others are still producing and deploying massive amounts of PHs. The vast majority are going straight to self-owned private mining operations. |
|
|
|
|
Nagle
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1000
|
|
August 07, 2014, 06:08:14 AM |
|
With the currently available hardware, there is no possible way difficulty adjustments could be 20% for 6 months. At that rate, even BitFury, MegabigPower, and CoinTerra would not be able to operate their gear at a profit. Sure it could. It's quite possible that enough people have Bitcoin mining gear on order, or ASICs in fab, for that to happen. Until we hear that ASIC vendors are shutting down production, the difficulty is going to continue to increase rapidly. |
|
|
|
|
|
Bitsaurus
|
|
August 07, 2014, 11:15:01 AM |
|
While the Bitcoin world moves quickly, the conventional world in which the miners are hosted moves slowly. If a company spent millions of dollars building a warehouse and got power contracts and is just now getting online with hardware it would just hit the network despite being ordered/payed for months in advance. Remember less than 3 months ago BTC was almost $700 and 4 months ago it almost doubled in 1 month - people have to guess future trends.
|
|
|
|
|
|
BrianM
|
|
August 07, 2014, 11:16:22 AM |
|
You need analog miners but nobody care about that anymore, but they will roi and never outdate.
|
|
|
|
|
goyetus (OP)
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 32
Merit: 0
|
|
August 07, 2014, 11:42:45 AM |
|
analog miners? first time I hear about them....... Why people dont care anymore? Low hashrate ?
Thanks!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bitsaurus
|
|
August 07, 2014, 12:05:42 PM |
|
analog miners? first time I hear about them....... Why people dont care anymore? Low hashrate ?
Thanks!
BrianM is either using a translator or doesn't have a good mastery of English. To my knowledge there is no such thing as an analog miner - not even sure what he could have even meant. The next Batch of S3 is not due for another 2 weeks and difficulty is about to jump to 20 billion, so by then it may be 21 or 22 billion. |
|
|
|
|
goyetus (OP)
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 32
Merit: 0
|
|
August 07, 2014, 08:11:24 PM |
|
English isn´t my main language too but, it´s first time for me seeing "analog asic".... Im wondering what he was trying to say.............. Maybe DIY asic ? I have seen a few proyects about DIY minners....... Thanks all people is helping in this thread!!! |
|
|
|
|
|
SMB-2525
|
|
August 08, 2014, 02:17:06 AM |
|
What do you use as the profitability decline per year? |
|
|
|
|
|
LightningBlade
|
|
August 08, 2014, 02:19:29 AM |
|
Im really disapointed...... just wanting to buy a few Antminer S3 cause I can use them at work where I have no electricity fee......... I was seeing the ROI , using this calculator: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculatorPlease, can someone help me??? I dont understand why ROI is impossible even without electricity fee........ or this calculator is not accurate???
Thanks!!!
 Please accept the truth that mining isn't profitable for small time investor. If you order a million S3 they would give u 70% discount. |
|
|
|
goyetus (OP)
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 32
Merit: 0
|
|
August 08, 2014, 02:25:38 AM |
|
- difficulty near 15% in the best of the scenario....... - No electricity fee - ROI in 5-6 months , and later, about 400 € profit if difficulty is 15% to end of days I dont see the business....... Only can Truly ROI if bitcoin rockets to 1000 USD...  |
|
|
|
|
|
SMB-2525
|
|
August 08, 2014, 02:26:13 AM |
|
The next Batch of S3 is not due for another 2 weeks and difficulty is about to jump to 20 billion, so by then it may be 21 or 22 billion.
Does that mean S3-B6 with a ship date of 12-Aug is sold out? Or is there a factor applied to the published ship date? https://bitmaintech.com/product.htm |
|
|
|
|
|
SMB-2525
|
|
August 08, 2014, 03:36:48 AM |
|
I built a spreadsheet for the no electricity model. Assumes 10% increase in difficulty every 11 days. If I order the miner and put them in production on Aug 18 (the next bump date in my spreadsheet) then the payback by Dec 6. This assumes the miner is .66 BTC to include shipping and half of the PS is $65. By Dec 6, the miner is making a whopping 2.32 a day. If I change the assumptions to 8% difficulty increase and 12 days per bump then it pays back by mid November in 100 days. It stays over $2/day until February. My landlord is not able to track electricity usage at the apartment level.  |
|
|
|
|
|
BrianM
|
|
August 08, 2014, 07:59:09 AM |
|
analog miners? first time I hear about them....... Why people dont care anymore? Low hashrate ?
Thanks!
With analog you get infinite step instead of only 1's and zeroes. So you can have hash a lot when mining with variable steplenght also noise is not a problem it will be filtered out with bandpass and there will be possible of makeing more hash, if the filters are outdated, so no more useless gear, just update the filters and you can continnie mining |
|
|
|
|
|
