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Author Topic: Is TA evidence-based?  (Read 1958 times)
Wary
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August 11, 2014, 11:25:28 PM
 #21

So, my current stance on TA is:
1) Patterns do exist.
    Proof: Statistical evidences (fat tails etc) and my poll Smiley that shows that belief in TA is (almost) not correlated with self-deception.
2) However, an average trader cannot profit from it.
    Proof: trading is zero-sum game, so majority loses. If this majority uses some TA, majority of TA users cannot profit from it.
3) However, an average trader wrongly believes he can profit from it.
    Proof: he trades using TA.

So, at which conditions you can profit from TA? I can thing of three cases:
-You just get lucky.
-Average trader is using TA, but you are much better in TA than average trader (you have a magic monkey, for example Smiley).
-Average trader is not using TA (influx of noobs), while you are using those TA's instruments that cannot be explained just by belief in TA (like, you use MACD, but not fibs).

That's pretty much my stance on TA. And your discussion of "the truth" in the OP is basically my stance on whether the US did 9/11. And my ideology is somewhere in the vicinity of anarcho-capitalism. (I say "somewhere in the vicinity" because that term probably implies different things to different people, and I am not all of those things. Recently, agorism has caught my attention, though I have not studied it in depth.)
Cool! It's always nice to be in an echo-chamber find like-minded person.  Smiley

Fairplay medal of dnaleor's trading simulator. Smiley
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BTCtrader71
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August 12, 2014, 12:21:35 AM
 #22

Cool! It's always nice to be in an echo-chamber find like-minded person.  Smiley

I agree! I agree! I agree! I agree!  Wink

It would be interesting to compare your general strategy for investing in crypto to mine ...

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JimboToronto
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August 12, 2014, 01:03:18 AM
 #23

I try to be neither a conspiracy theorist nor a conspiracy denier, but the whole idea of a "terrorist" conspiracy to demolish the inconvenient WTC (especially building 7) is pretty zany... definitely tin foil hat material.



As for TA, it's probably on the same level as astrology: time-honored pseudo-science that can be entertaining. Just don't base any important decisions on it.
Wary
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August 12, 2014, 02:12:06 AM
 #24

I try to be neither a conspiracy theorist nor a conspiracy denier, but the whole idea of a "terrorist" conspiracy to demolish the inconvenient WTC (especially building 7) is pretty zany... definitely tin foil hat material.



As for TA, it's probably on the same level as astrology: time-honored pseudo-science that can be entertaining. Just don't base any important decisions on it.
Thanks. I won't, but if I will, I'll at least have the hat on.  Wink

Fairplay medal of dnaleor's trading simulator. Smiley
Wary
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August 12, 2014, 02:13:59 AM
 #25

Cool! It's always nice to be in an echo-chamber find like-minded person.  Smiley

I agree! I agree! I agree! I agree!  Wink

It would be interesting to compare your general strategy for investing in crypto to mine ...
Good idea. I'll make a short description of mine soon (nothing special, I'm afraid).

Fairplay medal of dnaleor's trading simulator. Smiley
BTCtrader71
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August 12, 2014, 02:24:58 AM
 #26

Cool! It's always nice to be in an echo-chamber find like-minded person.  Smiley

I agree! I agree! I agree! I agree!  Wink

It would be interesting to compare your general strategy for investing in crypto to mine ...
Good idea. I'll make a short description of mine soon (nothing special, I'm afraid).

Cool. Perhaps we could do this by PM. Incidentally, right now I'm trying to wrap my head around the futures market.  Huh

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