Bitcoin BULL/Rally Forming?

[moriartybitcoin]

I expect a slide to $500-$520 and then a rebound to the $800 level .. just my opinion

[desired_username]

There's a speculation subforum...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.0

[iluvpie60]

you do know that apart from small mom and pop stores using coinbase.

the majority of merchants are beginning to hoard or atleast the payment gateway(bitpay mainly) are using non public exchange methods. (as i said in earlier post). and here is another point. when these large hoards are ready to sell. they wont do it on bitstamp(AML large payment flags), they wont do it on btc-e(AML large payment flags). they probably wont do it on coinbase as a large hoard sell-off would devalue their own holdings. instead these merchants would do private trading.

so the only worry you really have in regards to merchants, is the small merchants that use coinbase that dont hoard.

on average for every 1btc that would have been sold on an exchange to cash-out to fiat and then buy goods,  less than 20% of bitcoin would end up on an exchange if customers spent that btc with merchants instead.

so stop trying to say merchants are bad for bitcoin!

well i agree with you there. merchants are not bad for bitcoin, there is just a lot of merchants accepting it before the majority of people are using it. we expect to have this huge bitcoin price boom but we don't have the bitcoin users to get it there. the infrastructure is being laid faster and faster on the supply side(vendor adoption) and the demand is seemingly slowing down(people paying in btc). right now as btc slowly is dipping down it would be in the best interests of most merchants to hold i agree with you there, but t hat is only if they think the btc will be worth more. there is a lot of pessimism lately so who knows.

[franky1]

you do know that apart from small mom and pop stores using coinbase.

the majority of merchants are beginning to hoard or atleast the payment gateway(bitpay mainly) are using non public exchange methods. (as i said in earlier post). and here is another point. when these large hoards are ready to sell. they wont do it on bitstamp(AML large payment flags), they wont do it on btc-e(AML large payment flags). they probably wont do it on coinbase as a large hoard sell-off would devalue their own holdings. instead these merchants would do private trading.

so the only worry you really have in regards to merchants, is the small merchants that use coinbase that dont hoard.

on average for every 1btc that would have been sold on an exchange to cash-out to fiat and then buy goods,  less than 20% of bitcoin would end up on an exchange if customers spent that btc with merchants instead.

so stop trying to say merchants are bad for bitcoin!

well i agree with you there. merchants are not bad for bitcoin, there is just a lot of merchants accepting it before the majority of people are using it. we expect to have this huge bitcoin price boom but we don't have the bitcoin users to get it there. the infrastructure is being laid faster and faster on the supply side(vendor adoption) and the demand is seemingly slowing down(people paying in btc). right now as btc slowly is dipping down it would be in the best interests of most merchants to hold i agree with you there, but t hat is only if they think the btc will be worth more. there is a lot of pessimism lately so who knows.

dont worry relax.. it seems your a FIAT investor, looking for a quick spike to cash out within the month. im sorry but bitcoin is a long term project. once the ground work of infrastructure is settled and payment gateways are all military grade security and liability insured.(not script kiddies php code) these companies will do the advertising and get the consumers/average joe into bitcoin.

just watch what happens when for instance the winklevoss ETF opens up. you'll see

just be patient

oh and by the way, dont be a FIAT investor as the dollar is going to go 'Zimbabwe' on your ass. where a loaf of bread will cost you $1000 in a few years. so no point cashing out btc below $1000.. unless its the best loaf of bread in the world

[jaredboice]

bahahaha!  Iluvpie60 thinks that companies accepting Bitcoin are increasing the supply of Bitcoin

 

It appears basic economics was thrown right out the window of the WTC7 Penthouse

 

Quote me where I said that. L2 read.

nice edit to add the words "places to use". just a shame for you that we seen the pre-edit with our own eyes.

In other words when looking at a rough supply/demand chart, US, the PEOPLE, are the demand. The companies are the supply. There is TOO MUCH supply coming in vs demand coming in, to make the price go up right now.

care to edit the part highlighted in red too?

You took that out of context, read everything in order and then it flows. You can't just take that part out because then it makes it "seem like" I am saying companies are the supply of bitcoin(which i didnt). The reason I worded it that way is because companies do not demand bitcoin, they supply products which are paid for in a nominal value such as monetary or crytpo, which is then implies bitcoin is the demand in the aforementioned example.

iluvpie60 appears to be playing word acrobatics to obfuscate things.
I'm not saying he's a troll or a shill, but if it's the case that he is speaking his mind from a genuine disposition, than he simply just doesn't have any foundation whatsoever in basic economics.

OK, So that there is NO FURTHER CONFUSION.  This is what iluvpie60
states in his own exact words, completely in context.


"Are you joking or are you actually this confused? We are not talking about the supply of BTC keeping the price at X. We are talking about the Supply of companies accepting the Demand of BTC keeping the price at x."

and

"You need to improve your reading comprehension. There is too much supply so price of BTC has been going down. There are too many places to spend the BTC compared to the people willing to spend the BTC(demand)."

 

So iluvpie60 is clearly declaring in all of his infinite wisdom that since there are more places to spend Bitcoin than people willing to spend than the price of bitcoin goes down.


OK, let's use another financial asset to state the equivalent.  Let's use Gold.  And let's say that there is X amount of companies who are wiling to accept Gold for their products and services and Y amount of Gold owners
who are willing to spend Gold.  

If X (Amount of companies/people who want Gold (at least as a means of exchange) and are thus willing to accept Gold) is Greater than Y (the number of people who are willing to spend Gold) How can any sane person state that the price of Gold is going to go down??

In both examples, there are less people wiling to spend an asset than there are people who would otherwise be willing to accept it for trade.  

THEREFORE, Price must go up

So why is the price of bitcoin going down?  Markets go up, markets go down, there could be a plethora of reasons why, but none of which have anything to do with reasons thus stated by iluvpie60

[Velkro]

price will go up, when it will.... no need to hurry or rush
patience is key

[counter]

I'm liking where everybody speculates the price to go but I just think we should beware the unexpected and not act as if it is a foregone conclusion. 

[Omikifuse]

I think we are in a danger position.

Most radicals hodlers have the faith that the Bitcoin's price increase, if it won't happen they and the people they managed to convince may get tired and just sell their bitcoins.

Also if we lose the 550's level, there is no reason to believe that we will stop before the 400's(see the Bitstamp's 1 day chart and agree with me).
I would wait until we see sub 600 prices in the Bitstamp and in the BTC-e, or a break in the 650's level, to call it buy-ish, because we would be in the opposite of the current situation(aka: good scenario: prices rise, bad scenario, we don't fall neither rise. Now good scenario: we don't plunge to 400's, bad scenario: we plunge to 400's)

[cryptworld]

you are probably right
we are in summer,low volume time,easy to manipulate
i think we will see a rebound in the next after summer months

[Razick]

So I seen we've climbed overall from around $400 to $600 with bitcoin, then stopped at around $600. If it repeats, then we should be at $800 soon enough.

No...

As adoption by companies goes up the supply of places to use BTC goes up. As users of BTC go up the demand goes up. Right now we are in a massive company sweep, where more and more companies are accepting BTC. The "supply" of companies accepting BTC is far outweighing the "demand" for using said BTC.


In other words when looking at a rough supply/demand chart, US, the PEOPLE, are the demand. The companies are the supply. There is TOO MUCH supply coming in vs demand coming in, to make the price go up right now.

That is the most simplistic I can explain that. I vote to sticky this please so we can stop talking about it until tons of people are using btc. k thx.

Although it is true that more companies accepting Bitcoin can, in the short term, exert downward pressure on price (because companies tend to sell Bitcoin they receive), it's a bullish signal long term because it increases the utility of Bitcoin as a currency.

[TheCloser]

OP, this is a clown topic bro. Enough with the sock puppet accounts backing up your statement.

What I luv hippies is trying to say is the volume of BTC conversions to FIAT will increase as more merchants accept BTC as a form of payment. BTC is too volatile for any reputable business to hold long term as a store of value. This process causes too much supply and not enough demand unless new people learn about BTC and purchase BTC at the rate it's being dumped.

[cr1776]

I agree.  More places to spend ==> more usage ==> more acceptance.  In theory that should mean a higher fiat price baring other negative factors.  I think we've seen that over the past 4 years, even the past 2 years.

One point of note is that we are now more than half way to the next reward halving (spring/summer 2016 depending on how quickly mining power is added during that period). At some point in the next 24 months people will realize that the mining subsidy (new bitcoin supply) is about to drop by half and at that point there will be more interest in obtaining coins prior to it doing so.  Whether that will occur quite a while before the halving, shortly before or shortly thereafter I do not know.  But once the awareness that the new supply will be cut in half I believe that it will have a significant impact on the fiat price of bitcoin as it did in the past (along with many other factors, including usage and acceptance of course).

I think that with the larger awareness of bitcoin now as compared to fall of 2012, people will realize earlier the implications of the reward halving and so we'll see a good spike prior to that.  Given that it appears that right now with the current block reward we are at a short-term equilibrium in fiat pricing, cutting the new supply in half will have a large impact on fiat pricing as long as usage continues to grow (or even possibly remains constant).

bahahaha!  Iluvpie60 thinks that companies accepting Bitcoin are increasing the supply of Bitcoin

 

It appears basic economics was thrown right out the window of the WTC7 Penthouse

 

Quote me where I said that. L2 read.

nice edit to add the words "places to use". just a shame for you that we seen the pre-edit with our own eyes.

In other words when looking at a rough supply/demand chart, US, the PEOPLE, are the demand. The companies are the supply. There is TOO MUCH supply coming in vs demand coming in, to make the price go up right now.

care to edit the part highlighted in red too?

You took that out of context, read everything in order and then it flows. You can't just take that part out because then it makes it "seem like" I am saying companies are the supply of bitcoin(which i didnt). The reason I worded it that way is because companies do not demand bitcoin, they supply products which are paid for in a nominal value such as monetary or crytpo, which is then implies bitcoin is the demand in the aforementioned example.

iluvpie60 appears to be playing word acrobatics to obfuscate things.
I'm not saying he's a troll or a shill, but if it's the case that he is speaking his mind from a genuine disposition, than he simply just doesn't have any foundation whatsoever in basic economics.

OK, So that there is NO FURTHER CONFUSION.  This is what iluvpie60
states in his own exact words, completely in context.


"Are you joking or are you actually this confused? We are not talking about the supply of BTC keeping the price at X. We are talking about the Supply of companies accepting the Demand of BTC keeping the price at x."

and

"You need to improve your reading comprehension. There is too much supply so price of BTC has been going down. There are too many places to spend the BTC compared to the people willing to spend the BTC(demand)."

 

So iluvpie60 is clearly declaring in all of his infinite wisdom that since there are more places to spend Bitcoin than people willing to spend than the price of bitcoin goes down.


OK, let's use another financial asset to state the equivalent.  Let's use Gold.  And let's say that there is X amount of companies who are wiling to accept Gold for their products and services and Y amount of Gold owners
who are willing to spend Gold.  

If X (Amount of companies/people who want Gold (at least as a means of exchange) and are thus willing to accept Gold) is Greater than Y (the number of people who are willing to spend Gold) How can any sane person state that the price of Gold is going to go down??

In both examples, there are less people wiling to spend an asset than there are people who would otherwise be willing to accept it for trade.  

THEREFORE, Price must go up

So why is the price of bitcoin going down?  Markets go up, markets go down, there could be a plethora of reasons why, but none of which have anything to do with reasons thus stated by iluvpie60

[wang_yan]

So I seen we've climbed overall from around $400 to $600 with bitcoin, then stopped at around $600. If it repeats, then we should be at $800 soon enough.

Define soon. I think we might see $800 in Fall the earliest, not before. Too much selling pressure and bearish sentiment an the moment.

Well just imagine the bitcoin ETF gets listed tomorrow.

[kireinaha]

Although it is true that more companies accepting Bitcoin can, in the short term, exert downward pressure on price (because companies tend to sell Bitcoin they receive), it's a bullish signal long term because it increases the utility of Bitcoin as a currency.

I used to believe that too. In reality, it's just an outlet for long time holders to spend their bitcoins somewhere without the hassle of paying fees or finding buyers to cash out. Bitcoiners begged merchants to accept their money, and smart companies listened.

Checking out with bitcoin is quick (I've done it myself a few times), but to anyone outside our little bitcoin community, it's nothing more than a novelty. Nobody is buying bitcoins for the first time to use them at Overstock. They buy them to make money...

The one thing we had going for it was that the price would rise every year in dramatic fashion. It looks like those days may be over now that there are several channels to spend bitcoin (so much easier to offload... not so much hoarding) and there are even methods to short bitcoin now.

I believe the end of May was actually our "bubble" for this year, but for the reasons mentioned above, it tapered off before any serious action occurred. This will probably be the new normal as we gradually drop in price over the coming months/years.

[Razick]

Although it is true that more companies accepting Bitcoin can, in the short term, exert downward pressure on price (because companies tend to sell Bitcoin they receive), it's a bullish signal long term because it increases the utility of Bitcoin as a currency.

I used to believe that too. In reality, it's just an outlet for long time holders to spend their bitcoins somewhere without the hassle of paying fees or finding buyers to cash out. Bitcoiners begged merchants to accept their money, and smart companies listened.

Checking out with bitcoin is quick (I've done it myself a few times), but to anyone outside our little bitcoin community, it's nothing more than a novelty. Nobody is buying bitcoins for the first time to use them at Overstock. They buy them to make money...

The one thing we had going for it was that the price would rise every year in dramatic fashion. It looks like those days may be over now that there are several channels to spend bitcoin (so much easier to offload... not so much hoarding) and there are even methods to short bitcoin now.

I believe the end of May was actually our "bubble" for this year, but for the reasons mentioned above, it tapered off before any serious action occurred. This will probably be the new normal as we gradually drop in price over the coming months/years.

The biggest barrier to entry into the Bitcoin "network" (not the actual network, but the network of people using it) is its small size. There are not enough places to spend Bitcoin which causes consumers to not want it, but companies won't accept it until enough people use it. We are slowly breaking down this barrier.

[jcoin200]

Seems like a drop off like this always happens before a rally, I wouldnt be surprised if were back over $600 soon.

[BTCtrader71]

There are not enough places to spend Bitcoin which causes consumers to not want it, but companies won't accept it until enough people use it. We are slowly breaking down this barrier.

You can already spend bitcoin on amazon, target, cvs, and other places through gyft.com and save 0.5-1% compared to paying the usual way (credit card, assuming 1% cash back from cc, compared to 3% rewards gyft gives). So there's definitely places to spend it and a good reason to use it. The problem is that it's still a couple extra steps and a huge pain in the ass. But you are exactly right: we are slowly breaking down the barrier. Just a matter of time (even if it's a long time!)

[B1tc01n5]

I hope we can see 1000 again this year

[Benjig]

So I seen we've climbed overall from around $400 to $600 with bitcoin, then stopped at around $600. If it repeats, then we should be at $800 soon enough.

No...

As adoption by companies goes up the supply of places to use BTC goes up. As users of BTC go up the demand goes up. Right now we are in a massive company sweep, where more and more companies are accepting BTC. The "supply" of companies accepting BTC is far outweighing the "demand" for using said BTC.


In other words when looking at a rough supply/demand chart, US, the PEOPLE, are the demand. The companies are the supply. There is TOO MUCH supply coming in vs demand coming in, to make the price go up right now.

That is the most simplistic I can explain that. I vote to sticky this please so we can stop talking about it until tons of people are using btc. k thx.

Lol, What you've said truly makes no sense....Do you know how this all even works?

Ok, I'll give you the run down.

Someone buys Bitcoin

They use that Bitcoin to buy something on Overstock.com

Overstock sells the bitcoin for usd after that Person has bought w/e


There, The person buying the bitcoin, and Overstock selling the bitcoin cancel each other out, so it has No effect on the price. Learn how markets move sir. Then you have to factor in the newcomers, coming in and buying bitcoin because they heard/saw on tv that another company is accepting bitcoin(dell, expedia etc etc). That causes the price to Rise.

PS: I loled when you said the companies coming in are the Supply, please go RESEARCH before making stupid comments, thanks.

And in the other way i think that the people who spent their btcs on a merchant , he should had spent it anyway if there wasnt that merchant. This merchant selloff will only last  few days.. people buying things with btc cant drive the price down.

[maker88]

bahahaha!  Iluvpie60 thinks that companies accepting Bitcoin are increasing the supply of Bitcoin

 

It appears basic economics was thrown right out the window of the WTC7 Penthouse

 

Quote me where I said that. L2 read.

he thinks the companies are the supply. he's using supply in a very different way than the typical supply(money)demand(want for da moneys) analogy. supply in his scenario is what we call selling pressure. he's not really wrong its just a misunderstanding