..

[jonald_fyookball]

Well played, Devin Chow. I would buy more but I'm sadly fiat-strapped and down to 6.25 BTC to my name.

hang in there brother.
try not to sell those last coins.

[1715288547]

1715288547

[1715288547]

1715288547

[Torque]

Sold 15 BTC at $535 (bought at $620). Investing in BTC since 2014 has cost me several thousand. Fortunately for the profits I had from (late) 2013, overall I am in not so bad a state for becoming a Bitcoin investor. But that is me out for good. I am both bored out my mind staring at charts trying to make sense of them, all the little 'fundamentals' dramas, and routinely failing to listen to my own better instincts.

I guess we simply will never understand you, Mat.  If you don't think BTC will hit $620 again in the next few months, or even by the end of the year, then you are extremely shortsighted.  If you didn't want to stay involved in Bitcoin, you could have just held for a few months longer and at least broke even, instead of losing $1400.

But then again, you were the one screaming that a $200 bottom was inevitable, so...

[maker88]

Worst case scenario is it drops to $0, but hey  

On a long enough time line the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.

I am Jack's complete lack of surprise.

Ok you're officially the man for that one. I am jacks overwhelming sense of jealousy. My fiat isn't available until tomorrow 

[maker88]

Sold 15 BTC at $535 (bought at $620). Investing in BTC since 2014 has cost me several thousand. Fortunately for the profits I had from (late) 2013, overall I am in not so bad a state for becoming a Bitcoin investor. But that is me out for good. I am both bored out my mind staring at charts trying to make sense of them, all the little 'fundamentals' dramas, and routinely failing to listen to my own better instincts.

I guess we simply will never understand you, Mat.  If you don't think BTC will hit $620 again in the next few months, or even by the end of the year, then you are extremely shortsighted.  If you didn't want to stay involved in Bitcoin, you could have just held for a few months longer and at least broke even, instead of losing $1400.

But then again, you were the one screaming that a $200 bottom was inevitable, so...

Seriously, been here all this time and you still haven't learned to hold? God help you mat.

[goxed]

Go on, call me stupid.

Lets get back after an year good job IMO!

[Kprawn]

Well this might just be the last biggest opportunity to buy cheap BTC 

We so gonna kick our own ass, in a year from now, if we did not buy a few, when it was low.

When it was early days, most of us had the excuse, that we did not know about it. But now things have changed. It has shown that it can climb to $1000 and we still second guessing ourselves.

There are simply no change, that it would not go up again soon. {So hang in there and buy}

[jonald_fyookball]

Well this might just be the last biggest opportunity to buy cheap BTC 

We so gonna kick our own ass, in a year from now, if we did not buy a few, when it was low.

When it was early days, most of us had the excuse, that we did not know about it. But now things have changed. It has shown that it can climb to $1000 and we still second guessing ourselves.

There are simply no change, that it would not go up again soon. {So hang in there and buy}

people be bitchin and moanin that they couldnt buy cheap coins...then when the price dips,
they are too scared to pull the trigger.

[Kprawn]

Precisely... We all say we support BTC and they only way for it to reach those levels again, is for all of us to buy more now.

When everyone bought up the slack coins lying on exchanges, we would see a dramatic rise in the BTC price, and you would be doubling your money. 

But yes.... Most are on the side line watching.

[Razick]

You aren't. This is the logic I've been using to justify buying in. If Bitcoin becomes worthless I'll lose far less than I could potentially win.

Here's my conservative expected value assumption:

10% chance of $0.
15% chance of $250-400 (avg $325)
25% chance of $400-700 (avg $550)
25% chance of $700-2000 (avg $1350)
25% chance of $2000-5000 (avg $3500) or higher.

0 * .10 + .15*325 + .25*550 + .25*1350 + .25*3500 = Expected value $1,398.75.
Current price = $535
Discount = $863.75 or 62%.

[Ayers]

now don't go in panic mode, hold long term

[Anders]

Yikes, the bitcoin price is getting closer to $500. I made a prediction in another thread that the bitcoin price will not go much below $500 and not much above $5,000. If the price drops to $400 I will consider my prediction to have failed.

[GangkisKhan]

It hit close to 450 earlier and rebound.

Have to be brave to get in at 500.

[galbros]

No way, nice pick up.  There seems to be a lot of buying support around 500.  You should be smiling!

[Hfleer]

You aren't. This is the logic I've been using to justify buying in. If Bitcoin becomes worthless I'll lose far less than I could potentially win.

Here's my conservative expected value assumption:

10% chance of $0.
15% chance of $250-400 (avg $325)
25% chance of $400-700 (avg $550)
25% chance of $700-2000 (avg $1350)
25% chance of $2000-5000 (avg $3500) or higher.

0 * .10 + .15*325 + .25*550 + .25*1350 + .25*3500 = Expected value $1,398.75.
Current price = $535
Discount = $863.75 or 62%.

Good logic, but completely arbritrary numbers

[Skoupi]

Go on, call me stupid.

I 'll call you stupid only if you panic-sell at $400.

[Razick]

You aren't. This is the logic I've been using to justify buying in. If Bitcoin becomes worthless I'll lose far less than I could potentially win.

Here's my conservative expected value assumption:

10% chance of $0.
15% chance of $250-400 (avg $325)
25% chance of $400-700 (avg $550)
25% chance of $700-2000 (avg $1350)
25% chance of $2000-5000 (avg $3500) or higher.

0 * .10 + .15*325 + .25*550 + .25*1350 + .25*3500 = Expected value $1,398.75.
Current price = $535
Discount = $863.75 or 62%.

Good logic, but completely arbritrary numbers

They are arbitrary, but it's all about being honest about my expectations. Do I think there's more than a 10% chance of Bitcoin failing within a year or so? No. Do I think there's more than a 25% chance of prices being below $400 long term? No. So if you assess what you really believe and try to choose some conservative numbers based on that, it can help guide your decisions. For example, as of right now, if the price suddenly rocketed above $863 without much actually changing, I might want to consider buying less or even selling. But seeing prices so low compared to my expected value makes me think I'm justified in buying in.

[Argwai96]

Go on, call me stupid.

I won't.  Let's say worse case scenario it drops to $470 (another $30).  You'd be out, what, $180 total on your investment?  BFD.

And if it rallies you're in the black.

I'm not calling anyone stupid. But what if it doesn't stop at $470? What if we decline significantly below, and stabilize far below? How is $470 the worst case scenario?

[Newbie1022]

Go on, call me stupid.

I won't.  Let's say worse case scenario it drops to $470 (another $30).  You'd be out, what, $180 total on your investment?  BFD.

And if it rallies you're in the black.

I'm not calling anyone stupid. But what if it doesn't stop at $470? What if we decline significantly below, and stabilize far below? How is $470 the worst case scenario?

It's stupid. But you might win the bet. $525 is the resistance point we need to clear before we are out of trouble. Until then, we are to prone to cascades (watch $495 on Bitfinex). I am definitely not making the mistake of trying to guess the bottom, again. Waiting for technical confirmation even if that cuts into the earnings a bit.

Also, keep in mind, Ethereum dumped 1300 BTCs on the 10th and the 12th... this being the 14th/15th we are due for another dump from them. Also, retailers tend to sell on Friday at the close of the week. The countervailing force against that is that the price is cheap compared to a week ago and tomorrow is also payday.

In short, we are in 50/50 land still. If you wait for technical confirmation, you make $23/coin less... but we know that is a pittance compared to the eventual rally. It is for those reasons that I say... stupid. And also I just don't like you because you are a racist a--hole.

[freedomno1]

Go on, call me stupid.

Nope

I will say congrats on your purchase and any point above this price is gravy any point below
HODL for a while I guess as their is a reasonable chance that your near the price low if not at it.
Where it will stabilize after may not be too high above that in the short term but if it goes back to the old price that's not a bad difference.

[messibtc]

I'm also buying more bitcoins as the value go down, and I won't sell them ever, I will just use my btc in the future without converting into useless FIAT.