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Author Topic: Could Satoshi ever spend his Bitcoins?  (Read 6913 times)
dooglus
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March 27, 2012, 12:01:36 AM
 #21

Even if Satoshi had wanted to use one address, it would not have been possible. There were no mining pools back then, and each generation creates a new private key.

The first 70460 blocks all used different generation addresses.  The first repeated generation address was in blocks 70459 and 70460:
http://blockexplorer.com/address/15w6iQpfmsKwHswaUoWNWhyjAftrU1b3yB

That was over 18 months after the genesis block, but 4 months before slush accounced his mining pool:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1976.0

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Daily Anarchist
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March 27, 2012, 01:11:39 AM
 #22

This story has all of the makings of a post-apocalyptic religious text.

In the beginning their was only the endless fiat and the masses cried out in agony from the persecutions inflicted upon them by the FED. The Satoshi said let their be a block and there was a block and it was good.  The world was divided between the fiat and the block and it was good ...

+1

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disclaimer201
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March 27, 2012, 03:38:21 AM
 #23

You guys really think the genius who brought us Bitcoin was stupid enough to lose a gazillion Bitcoins?

This guy knew he was creating something that could/would bring down the global banking cartel. He knew he would be a target. Any smart target would wait to move his coin until it becomes extremely safe to do so. You think he's going to buy some alpaca socks and have them shipped to his house? Or sell his coins on Mt. Gox?

No, he'll patiently wait until the the empires of the world come crashing down and we live in a much more free and peaceful planet before he comes out and exposes himself and his extremely vast fortune. At least that's what I would do.

Bitcoin or not, I highly doubt there will be 'a much more free and peaceful planet' in the near or not-so-near future. Bitcoin won't solve the problem of human greed in any way. The industrial revolution and energy affluency (ie oil) as we've seen in the 20th century developed world did not lead to a materialisation of utopian visions of the 19th century. For example, you can read about credit cards a century before they were invented in novels such as Edward Bellamy's novel "Looking Backward 2000-1887". In the novel, many of the problems of the 19th century were 'solved', while actually creating a much less free and technocratic state some would label a dictatorship. The problem will always be the human condition, questions of wealth distribution and political will, and frankly, I'm quite scared of any of such utopian 'solutions' for we also have a lot to lose.

I strongly support bitcoin for its emancipatory function, but who can really say what would be the end result of a world without banks? It was a great coincidence less than 200 years ago that civilization happened to develop from a stratified society to a modern society based on functional differentiation. It was in no way natural that society would develop in that direction. Functional differentiation is a term used by a 20th century sociologist named Luhmann. It means, nowadays it doesn't  matter by fare where you come from or what family you were born into. A nobleman in the middle ages with a lot of spare-time at his hands, would have had high chances to be select for whatever important position. Nowadays, if you need an expert in whatever field, you'd most likely hire someone who has learned his profession, for example a highly specialized computer programmer. Someone with skills to write in Turbo Pascal won't do. My point is the creation of markets, early trading companies and banks giving out loans and creating investment possibilities were very important if not crucial for this shift from one society-form to another. Who can really say what happens in a world without banks, or far worse during the transfer towards it. Sorry if this is off-topic, but I think it's necessary to comment on overly enthusiastic, unreflected statements as the one above.

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March 27, 2012, 03:42:35 AM
 #24

Can't be.

Daily Anarchist
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March 27, 2012, 04:40:10 AM
 #25

You guys really think the genius who brought us Bitcoin was stupid enough to lose a gazillion Bitcoins?

This guy knew he was creating something that could/would bring down the global banking cartel. He knew he would be a target. Any smart target would wait to move his coin until it becomes extremely safe to do so. You think he's going to buy some alpaca socks and have them shipped to his house? Or sell his coins on Mt. Gox?

No, he'll patiently wait until the the empires of the world come crashing down and we live in a much more free and peaceful planet before he comes out and exposes himself and his extremely vast fortune. At least that's what I would do.

Bitcoin or not, I highly doubt there will be 'a much more free and peaceful planet' in the near or not-so-near future. Bitcoin won't solve the problem of human greed in any way. The industrial revolution and energy affluency (ie oil) as we've seen in the 20th century developed world did not lead to a materialisation of utopian visions of the 19th century. For example, you can read about credit cards a century before they were invented in novels such as Edward Bellamy's novel "Looking Backward 2000-1887". In the novel, many of the problems of the 19th century were 'solved', while actually creating a much less free and technocratic state some would label a dictatorship. The problem will always be the human condition, questions of wealth distribution and political will, and frankly, I'm quite scared of any of such utopian 'solutions' for we also have a lot to lose.

I strongly support bitcoin for its emancipatory function, but who can really say what would be the end result of a world without banks? It was a great coincidence less than 200 years ago that civilization happened to develop from a stratified society to a modern society based on functional differentiation. It was in no way natural that society would develop in that direction. Functional differentiation is a term used by a 20th century sociologist named Luhmann. It means, nowadays it doesn't  matter by fare where you come from or what family you were born into. A nobleman in the middle ages with a lot of spare-time at his hands, would have had high chances to be select for whatever important position. Nowadays, if you need an expert in whatever field, you'd most likely hire someone who has learned his profession, for example a highly specialized computer programmer. Someone with skills to write in Turbo Pascal won't do. My point is the creation of markets, early trading companies and banks giving out loans and creating investment possibilities were very important if not crucial for this shift from one society-form to another. Who can really say what happens in a world without banks, or far worse during the transfer towards it. Sorry if this is off-topic, but I think it's necessary to comment on overly enthusiastic, unreflected statements as the one above.

Modern states as we know them cannot sustain themselves without massive counterfeiting. If the world turns towards free-market currency, the rest of the economy will follow, including roles traditionally held by governments.

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March 27, 2012, 05:39:28 AM
 #26

It is my belief that Satoshi has spent at least some of his Bitcoins. I think he (or the team behind the name) did so in June of last year and possibly February of this year. This is from analysis of Bitcoin Days Destroyed. I also think a significant player (perhaps Satoshi, but probably someone else that is/was a major player) also sold a significant number of Bitcoins in mid-November in order to combat the bid-waller. I'm not entirely certain why as they did so at a significant loss evidenced by the subsequent rise over the next few months.

It also appears from Bitcoin Days Destroyed that an old miner also moved coin in mid-February of this year. It appears that it was used to game Bitcoinica. It is probably this person that I'm interested in the most due to the fact that they seem to be privy to Bitcoinica's business model and gamed it quite efficiently.

These are, of course, unconfirmable, but that's what my amateur analysis leads me to believe. I'd welcome anyone to look at the evidence of what happened with Bitcoin Days Destroyed at these three points in time and events surrounding these dates to corroborate what was going on.

Evidence: (very old miners, June 2011 and February 2012)
http://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year

(somewhat major miners, November 2011)
http://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-month

I know there has been talk of this mystery miner that has been mining huge amounts without including transaction fees:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=67634.0

Given that in February someone sold a significant amount of old coin (>1 year in age), it is entirely possible that this was Satoshi or an older miner that then spent that money to set up a huge sASIC or FPGA array that we now attribute to this mystery miner starting in early March 2012.

These are just suspicions. I want to make it clear I don't claim to know anything for certain, but it would not surprise me if these were related.

Even if the MM is Satoshi (or the group we call Satoshi), I'm 100% behind these actions as they continue to nurture Bitcoin in new and interesting ways.

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