Bitcoin now looks like a mature technology

[Nagle]

Bitcoin now looks like a mature technology. The software has settled down, there's been a modest level of merchant adoption, the transaction rate hasn't increased all that much over the last six months, and the legal status has become clear. The mining side is running into power consumption cost as a limit. Bitcoin isn't a new thing any more.

With Bitcoin out of its startup phase, what happens now?  It's starting to look like a niche product, positioned somewhat like gift cards. There are a number of pseudo-currencies like that - airline frequent flyer miles, all those "reward point" schemes, and the big array of prepaid cards available at retail outlets. They're just little convenience things; they have no significant impact on the financial system. It looks like that's where Bitcoin is settling.

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[Melbustus]

Bitcoin now looks like a mature technology. The software has settled down, there's been a modest level of merchant adoption, the transaction rate hasn't increased all that much over the last six months, and the legal status has become clear. The mining side is running into power consumption cost as a limit. Bitcoin isn't a new thing any more.

With Bitcoin out of its startup phase, what happens now?  It's starting to look like a niche product, positioned somewhat like gift cards. There are a number of pseudo-currencies like that - airline frequent flyer miles, all those "reward point" schemes, and the big array of prepaid cards available at retail outlets. They're just little convenience things; they have no significant impact on the financial system. It looks like that's where Bitcoin is settling.

John, you've been consistently wrong analyzing bitcoin's ecosystem and long-term prospects for years. Aggressively wrong, in fact:

We might see $3.  After each big drop, there's been some recovery. But each top was lower than the last, and each recovery lasted no more than three days.

no one's listening to you.

Actually, I've received several private messages recently thanking me for keeping them from making a big financial mistake.

Now let's have a look at "cypherdoc"'s track record:

• September 3, 2011: "while the falloff has been dramatic, it appears to be stabilizing around this 8-10 range.  i keep accumulating on the way down.  just give it time.  they can't stop it."
• August 4, 2011: "Re: $10,000 Bet that Bitcoins will outperform Gold, Silver by 100X !!! --- i happen to agree and i've staked my money on it!!!!"
• July 9, 2011: "i will also bet any or all of you btc bears/trolls in this thread 100 BTC each to be held in escrow that the USD price of 1 BTC will exceed $20 in one year."

If he's telling the truth, he's lost a lot of money in Bitcoin. Anybody fool enough to listen to him did, too.

Those people you kept from "making a big financial mistake"....you actually prevented from making a 5000%-10000% return!



A few more quotes:

I've been saying "long slow slide" for months.  That happened. Now we're seeing the endgame, which looks like the endgame for most penny stocks. The volume is low, around $50,000 per day.  Some of that is 'bots running the same money back and forth; the actual volume out of the market is smaller. The price moves around whenever anybody makes a sizable transaction. I'm not expecting a big drop, just random noise with a long-term downtrend.

Bitcoin is now useless as a currency, because liquidating the day's receipts for one reasonably sized store would crash the market.

The end is coming not with a bang, but with a whimper.

...It's zombie mode, the fate of many startups. They're not going anywhere, they can't pay back their investors, but they generate just enough activity to keep alive.

And I just briefly looked at your post history cuz I remember your trolling from 2011. You have many months worth of posts predicting the "endgame" of bitcoin as a result of the 2011 ramp and fall. There are probably a good deal more blantantly wrong predictions/statements from you that one could dig up.

A couple interesting quotes, though:

...
I'd like to see a digital currency that works well enough to compete with Paypal. I've seen Digicash, Beenz, and Flooz tank.  Bitcoin isn't going to do much better.

...
Bitcoin's innovation is not that it prevents double-spending.  That was invented by David Chaum in the 1990s and formed the basis of DigiCash. Nor is "mining" new; that's from Hashcash in the 1990s. Bitcoin combines the two concepts. The end result is a lot like Digicash, but distributed. 

Despite the fact that you seem to realize that bitcoin is the first decentralized digital cash (and hence, the first *actual* realization of the efforts of all those early digital-money guys from the 80s and 90s; ie, their "holy grail" of money), you dump it into the same bucket as Digicash, Beenz, and Flooz. THAT is possibly the core source of your intellectual errors. Bitcoin is indeed not the first digital cash system. It's just the first decentralized one, and therefore, the first ideal money for modern times. That makes it a different beast entirely.

[criptix]

wow, you got owned pretty hard right there nagle 

[Pente]

wow, you got owned pretty hard right there nagle 

+1

[Omikifuse]

Bitcoin is still beta.

I wouldn't call it mature until at least the 1.0 version of the bitcoin-qt.


And compare Bitcoin with things like gift cards and miles programs is so absurd that doesn't deserve an answer. At least don't be too obvious when you troll

[darkota]

Haha, it must suck to be Nagle.

Looking at his post history, he's been ripping on Bitcoin since 2011. If only he had bought/invested back then instead of ripping on it like a retard, he might of been a millionaire by now..What an idiot! Lol.  

[bassclef]

Ouch. Trolls really come out during bear markets. Still waiting for their doom & gloom predictions to come true.

[inca]

wow, you got owned pretty hard right there nagle 

Ouch. It must have hurt reading that faulty analysis again. We all make mistakes - I opened my blockchain.info account in mid 2012 but couldn't find an easy way to buy btc so left it till early 2013. Still smarts to this day haha.

[cypherdoc]

...

that was beautiful. couldn't have done nearly as well myself.  

Nagle, you seem to have difficulty observing trends.  Bitcoin has seen astounding growth, just over the past year, never mind before that.  i won't go too hard on you; i don't have the energy right now but the mere fact that BitPay is offering free tx processing is going to bring in legions of merchants who will be able to decrease prices, to then be followed by consumers wishing to avail themselves of those discounts.

Bitcoin is growing worldwide and ATM's are spreading like wildfire.  it' perfectly normal to have lull periods like we're seeing now only to be followed by explosive periods of new growth.  it's coming.  don't be left behind anymore than you already have.

[cypherdoc]

http://www.downside.com/

[blumangroup]

Holy crap if that second post wasn't the mother of all beat downs. Daaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyuuuuuuuuummmmmmmm!

[spiderbrain]

Settling? Yes. It's like some dust settling on a rocket.

[impulse]

Oh Nagle, how we've missed you brand of trolling, so distinct. Where's Proudhon? Can he please dust off the old trolling hat and lay down some pure gold here.

[i dig bitcoins]

Yep that's ole Nagle still spewing doom and gloom. I remember his ass from way back in '11 talking that same bullshit.
At least he's not as irritating (or maybe he is) as that little man "falling"...for some reason I picture him looking like smeagle (sp) from lord of the rings...
sell noooowww its all going doooowwnnn...last chance for yooouu...sell before it goes to zeerooo.

[Polycoin]

Nagle is 100% right. Bitcoin has settled in it's niche, reminds me of Gift Cards also. Such a shame, I had better expectations.

[MrPiggles]

wow, you got owned pretty hard right there nagle 

That was a full on, ground and pound, face smashing beat down

[yunkie]

Damn, nagle got obliterated, so will everyone else betting low BTC for the next 3 years. Take notes guys.

[fdiini]

Technology might be mature but the market and fluctuation on price suggest otherwise.

[botany]

Bitcoin now looks like a mature technology. The software has settled down, there's been a modest level of merchant adoption, the transaction rate hasn't increased all that much over the last six months, and the legal status has become clear. The mining side is running into power consumption cost as a limit. Bitcoin isn't a new thing any more.

With Bitcoin out of its startup phase, what happens now?  It's starting to look like a niche product, positioned somewhat like gift cards. There are a number of pseudo-currencies like that - airline frequent flyer miles, all those "reward point" schemes, and the big array of prepaid cards available at retail outlets. They're just little convenience things; they have no significant impact on the financial system. It looks like that's where Bitcoin is settling.

John, you've been consistently wrong analyzing bitcoin's ecosystem and long-term prospects for years. Aggressively wrong, in fact:

We should revisit this post a couple of years from now. 

[Melbustus]

Bitcoin now looks like a mature technology. The software has settled down, there's been a modest level of merchant adoption, the transaction rate hasn't increased all that much over the last six months, and the legal status has become clear. The mining side is running into power consumption cost as a limit. Bitcoin isn't a new thing any more.

With Bitcoin out of its startup phase, what happens now?  It's starting to look like a niche product, positioned somewhat like gift cards. There are a number of pseudo-currencies like that - airline frequent flyer miles, all those "reward point" schemes, and the big array of prepaid cards available at retail outlets. They're just little convenience things; they have no significant impact on the financial system. It looks like that's where Bitcoin is settling.

John, you've been consistently wrong analyzing bitcoin's ecosystem and long-term prospects for years. Aggressively wrong, in fact:

We should revisit this post a couple of years from now. 

Is now good?

[rjclarke2000]

Bitcoin now looks like a mature technology. The software has settled down, there's been a modest level of merchant adoption, the transaction rate hasn't increased all that much over the last six months, and the legal status has become clear. The mining side is running into power consumption cost as a limit. Bitcoin isn't a new thing any more.

With Bitcoin out of its startup phase, what happens now?  It's starting to look like a niche product, positioned somewhat like gift cards. There are a number of pseudo-currencies like that - airline frequent flyer miles, all those "reward point" schemes, and the big array of prepaid cards available at retail outlets. They're just little convenience things; they have no significant impact on the financial system. It looks like that's where Bitcoin is settling.

John, you've been consistently wrong analyzing bitcoin's ecosystem and long-term prospects for years. Aggressively wrong, in fact:

We should revisit this post a couple of years from now. 

Is now good?

Internet.......we have a winner!!

[Melbustus]

Bitcoin now looks like a mature technology. The software has settled down, there's been a modest level of merchant adoption, the transaction rate hasn't increased all that much over the last six months, and the legal status has become clear. The mining side is running into power consumption cost as a limit. Bitcoin isn't a new thing any more.

With Bitcoin out of its startup phase, what happens now?  It's starting to look like a niche product, positioned somewhat like gift cards. There are a number of pseudo-currencies like that - airline frequent flyer miles, all those "reward point" schemes, and the big array of prepaid cards available at retail outlets. They're just little convenience things; they have no significant impact on the financial system. It looks like that's where Bitcoin is settling.

John, you've been consistently wrong analyzing bitcoin's ecosystem and long-term prospects for years. Aggressively wrong, in fact:

We should revisit this post a couple of years from now. 

Is now good?

Or maybe now. Another +1000%. Where'd Nagle go?

[STT]

I didnt even notice it was old because I have zero doubt people believe this right now that crypto is a gift card token and has nothing significant; no we cannot just carry on and forget it and we actually will require BTC or some similar solution.  BTC is developing as a protocol and the whole sector with integration is by no means finished.   We've only just begun the end of conventional pennies and notes and normal retail shop fronts thats existed for hundreds of years, obviously we are moving into more efficient virtual delivery systems and BTC will be part of that as secure transaction.

no significant impact on the financial system

Even if you dont like crypto, we are observing the mainstream finance system shake itself apart.   Some solution and evolution is required, I'm fairly sure the dude or people behind BTC in its origin were totally aware and foresaw this.    Its taking longer then many thought but central banks with their political bias to value and control of currency is not going to be forever, the world requires something more reliable.  Some of that isnt speculation its the lay of the land, examine debt markets & long term treasury debt etc.
   

[exstasie]

Or maybe now. Another +1000%. Where'd Nagle go?

I miss Nagle, almost as much as I miss ElectricMucus. The trolls of today have nothing on them. I think I even bought into his "BTC is a niche currency" narrative for a little while after being traumatized by the 2014 bear market.

I'd like to think he came around in 2016-2017 (when he stopped trolling) and is now chilling on a beach somewhere counting his millions. Fat chance of that though.

[bitgolden]

I said this in 2017, I have talked about this before. Bitcoin was wrongly assumed like a kind of dark web, internet money that was used for drugs and even used by pseudo to share stuff and so forth which is why it wasn't liked by many people, I remember a time when I applied for a job someone asked me "aren't you afraid that you will be caught using bitcoin" when I wrote something about bitcoin literally on the CV, they thought it was something illegal.

Nowadays you look at it and everyone is fine with it, even huge trillion dollar hedge funds buy it and invest in it, there are like a million other things that causes bitcoin to be liked and known a lot more this way, I think it is going to change even more in the future, at least it looks like it will, the more mature we get, the better people look at us and that is a very important thing for price and adoption.

[Melbustus]

I miss Nagle, almost as much as I miss ElectricMucus. The trolls of today have nothing on them. ...

Ah, I remember ElectricMucus.

I haven't been very active here in the past couple years....how's kwukduck doing? Ardent bear since 2011, IIRC.