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Author Topic: Crash!!!!  (Read 32214 times)
silverbox
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May 11, 2012, 03:57:17 PM
 #61

Someone better start buying or this baby is gonna be at 2 again..
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silverbox
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May 11, 2012, 05:07:35 PM
 #62

Someone better start buying or this baby is gonna be at 2 again..

Don't worry, I've got it covered with a $60 bid wall at $4.

Whew!, for a second I was worried Wink
muyuu
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May 11, 2012, 05:19:52 PM
 #63

I'd say the price is holding quite well.

On the bright side, Bitcoin will be getting some more exposure.  Roll Eyes

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BadBear
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May 11, 2012, 08:25:15 PM
 #64

He was talking about this thread.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80126.0

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Dan The Man
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May 11, 2012, 09:17:25 PM
 #65

after all, it's worth 5 times one USD after just 3.5 yrs of existence whereas all other fiat currencies are close to parity.

Meaningless. Japanese yen is worth about a penny, therefore it is automatically a bad investment?

molecular
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June 18, 2012, 06:36:16 AM
 #66

I've never posted in the Crash!!!!-thread before... let's see what happens next...

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June 18, 2012, 06:40:49 AM
 #67

I've never posted in the Crash!!!!-thread before... let's see what happens next...

Time to get out your shorts...  Or you are hopping on the short-bus?

One off NP-Hard.
molecular
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June 18, 2012, 06:45:27 AM
 #68

I've never posted in the Crash!!!!-thread before... let's see what happens next...

Time to get out your shorts...  Or you are hopping on the short-bus?

I have nothing to hedge and I don't short for fun.

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HorseRider
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June 22, 2012, 05:01:14 AM
 #69

there was some miss leading on the last report. some successive drawdowns were treated as different drawdowns, that's not appropriate, just as shown by bitcoinbitcoin113, from 10/17/2011 to 10/19/2011.

new report is here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74890.msg981973#msg981973

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bb113
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June 22, 2012, 09:12:24 AM
 #70

Here you go:

Code:
# end of crash date Precrash close Post crash close Drawdown Duration(days)
8 7/22/2010 0.08 0.05 -45.00% 1
7 11/8/2010 0.39 0.24 -47.30% 2
2 11/9/2010 0.39 0.21 -61.90% 3
1 6/11/2011 29.6 14.65 -70.30% 3
10 8/3/2011 13.53 9.26 -37.90% 4
5 8/6/2011 10.75 6.55 -49.50% 2
9 9/10/2011 7.19 4.77 -40.90% 3
6 10/17/2011 4.15 2.56 -48.30% 5
4 10/18/2011 4.15 2.42 -54.00% 6
3 10/19/2011 4.15 2.27 -60.30% 7

muyuu
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June 22, 2012, 09:18:23 AM
 #71

Some of these greedy Bitcoinica fucks are getting 50% of their funds back. Predictable.  Wink

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bb113
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June 22, 2012, 09:26:18 AM
 #72

something got messed up in the above charts... the timepoints don't add up but whatever.
Spekulatius
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June 22, 2012, 11:53:53 AM
 #73

something got messed up in the above charts... the timepoints don't add up but whatever.

It does look messed up Wink
What about compiling a graph that show the largest crashes as a bar chart by total or relative drawdown and that has on top of each bar a pie wich indicates the duration of the crash. A full pie means 7 days (the highest duration) and an empty pie means 0 days.
Do you get me?
Spekulatius
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June 22, 2012, 12:07:07 PM
 #74



That looks like what could become a classical Shoulder Head Shoulder formation, even with a small version of itself in the head section. Just watch out for the indicators! (lower highs and lower lows). If it does unfold like this the best opportunity to get of board is on top of the last shoulder. In my example a final drop to the 5-5.2$ area would be the result.
cloon
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June 22, 2012, 12:17:51 PM
 #75

Hm.. There were always a gigher high and higher lows. To speculate on a head and shoulder its to early. To speculate on this there needs to be a low at 6 and a high at 6.5. Before its to early to speculate on this.

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June 22, 2012, 12:29:57 PM
 #76



That looks like what could become a classical Shoulder Head Shoulder formation, even with a small version of itself in the head section. Just watch out for the indicators! (lower highs and lower lows). If it does unfold like this the best opportunity to get of board is on top of the last shoulder. In my example a final drop to the 5-5.2$ area would be the result.

Something like this.
HorseRider
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June 22, 2012, 01:26:19 PM
 #77

edit the data.

1. treat successive drawdowns as a single drawdown, but not different ones.

The largest 20 crashes on mtgox trading history.
as of 2012-6-22

During every "crash", the daily performance should be always negative. "Duration days" mean how many days that the mtgox price drop without a daily bounce. For example, at the end of 2011-10-19, the mtgox exchange rate lose 60.3% from 2011-10-12, without a single daily positive daily performance.

the drawdowns are caculated in natural logarithm, drawdown=ln(pt/p0)

use only the "close price" only, which ignored the highest and lowest price during the trading days.

anyone please make it a table on this forum? I do not know how to use it.

#   End of the crash   Drawdowns   Durations   Pre-crash close price   Post-crash close price
1   2011-6-11   -70.3%   3    29.60     14.65
2   2010-11-9   -61.9%   3    0.39     0.21
3   2011-10-19   -60.3%   7    4.15     2.27
4   2011-8-6   -49.5%   2    10.75     6.55
5   2010-7-22   -45.0%   1    0.08     0.05
6   2011-9-10   -40.9%   3    7.19     4.77
7   2011-8-3   -37.9%   4    13.53     9.26
8   2011-5-20   -36.3%   4    8.03     5.59
9   2011-11-14   -32.7%   3    3.08     2.22
10   2012-2-16   -32.5%   6    5.91     4.27
11   2010-11-30   -31.2%   4    0.28     0.21
12   2010-12-5   -29.4%   3    0.26     0.19
13   2011-8-26   -29.1%   3    10.94     8.18
14   2011-9-17   -24.2%   5    6.08     4.77
15   2011-9-6   -23.0%   4    8.64     6.86
16   2011-10-8   -22.8%   7    5.03     4.01
17   2010-11-16   -22.4%   2    0.28     0.22
18   2012-1-17   -22.3%   2    7.00     5.60
19   2011-11-18   -22.2%   2    2.56     2.05
20   2011-10-24   -22.0%   1    3.17     2.55

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proudhon
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June 22, 2012, 02:12:07 PM
 #78

Looks like this thread was bumped to the top just in time.

SkRRJyTC
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June 22, 2012, 02:17:42 PM
 #79

Looks like this thread was bumped to the top just in time.



Buying at $5.xx and selling above 6.50 is damn good too.
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June 22, 2012, 02:20:48 PM
 #80

lol, we r goin down!
Next stop: 6.20-6.30$
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