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Author Topic: [ANN] A public company will build a huge Bitcoin Mining Operation (ASIC).  (Read 25211 times)
Vladimir
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April 11, 2012, 06:52:07 PM
 #261

I would like to thank everyone who responded in this thread and elsewhere, be it compliments, suggestions, criticism (constructive or otherwise).

At the moment I am having a series of meetings with investors, accountants, lawyers and other "professionals" trying to figure out subtle details of "the plan". As soon as there is some better clarity on our exact plans it will be announced. Until then I will be mostly quiet.

Thank You all, again. Your feedback both positive and negative is very much appreciated.


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payb.tc
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April 11, 2012, 09:34:08 PM
 #262

and then difficulty will drop again, and lots of miners will start mining, and then...
No, they wouldn't. We've already seen such a drop, and the difficulty is still well below what it was about 7 months ago. It will fall sharply and then level out before it starts going up again very slowly (unless it kills bitcoin completely).

point is, you said 'difficulty will double' causing lots of miners to drop out, but failed to mention this would cause difficulty to drop again.


He is describing an equilibrium effect which significantly decreases the amount of hashing power needed to carry out an attack. For example,  if there are 10 TH currently, you won't need to add another 10 TH to carry out a 51% attack. 7 TH could be enough if increasing difficulty to 14 TH level causes 3 TH of miners (30% of the starting amount) to drop out. That is what he is saying.

The actual numbers are hard to estimate, however it is certain that you won't need to create a full new 10 TH to 51% an existing 10 TH network. True attack costs are less than people naively assume.

yeah i get that but guess what happens as soon as they drop out? you failed to mention it too.
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April 11, 2012, 11:06:25 PM
 #263

True attack costs are gigantic, because they directly attack a golden goose! Grin

Why would anyone with 10TH (or 9TH, or 8TH, or ...) do anything besides mining (thus, collecting huge profits) is beyond me. Wait, I have 10TH, gonna collapse Bitcoin now! Much better investment! Grin
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April 12, 2012, 01:16:39 AM
 #264

point is, you said 'difficulty will double' causing lots of miners to drop out, but failed to mention this would cause difficulty to drop again.
It's the kind of thing I expect people to realize without mentioning it explicitly, and it doesn't change my point.

i'm speaking on the straight math, no assumptions, no predictions.  nobody knows the full impact if this company ever launches.  nobody knows what gpu miners might do (like selling their gpu's and buying fpg's) or if a retail asic option would become available, so safest not to make any assumptions.

as to people generally realizing that you have to double current hashrate to gain 50% of the hashing power, numerous and repeated postings on these forums speak otherwise.  you most often find it in a statement like, "well if he got 1.2TH hashing, he'd have 10% of the network.".

What? Of course you are making assumptions. Unrealistic ones.

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April 12, 2012, 01:30:02 AM
 #265

point is, you said 'difficulty will double' causing lots of miners to drop out, but failed to mention this would cause difficulty to drop again.
It's the kind of thing I expect people to realize without mentioning it explicitly, and it doesn't change my point.

i'm speaking on the straight math, no assumptions, no predictions.  nobody knows the full impact if this company ever launches.  nobody knows what gpu miners might do (like selling their gpu's and buying fpg's) or if a retail asic option would become available, so safest not to make any assumptions.

as to people generally realizing that you have to double current hashrate to gain 50% of the hashing power, numerous and repeated postings on these forums speak otherwise.  you most often find it in a statement like, "well if he got 1.2TH hashing, he'd have 10% of the network.".

What? Of course you are making assumptions. Unrealistic ones.

which assumptions am i making?
cunicula
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April 12, 2012, 01:45:03 AM
 #266

point is, you said 'difficulty will double' causing lots of miners to drop out, but failed to mention this would cause difficulty to drop again.
It's the kind of thing I expect people to realize without mentioning it explicitly, and it doesn't change my point.

i'm speaking on the straight math, no assumptions, no predictions.  nobody knows the full impact if this company ever launches.  nobody knows what gpu miners might do (like selling their gpu's and buying fpg's) or if a retail asic option would become available, so safest not to make any assumptions.

as to people generally realizing that you have to double current hashrate to gain 50% of the hashing power, numerous and repeated postings on these forums speak otherwise.  you most often find it in a statement like, "well if he got 1.2TH hashing, he'd have 10% of the network.".

What? Of course you are making assumptions. Unrealistic ones.

which assumptions am i making?
You are assuming that the number of other people mining will remain constant as difficulty rises. If you believe people who say that a 51% attack attempt will decrease price, you are also assuming that the number of other people mining will remain constant as price falls.

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triplehelix
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April 12, 2012, 01:52:38 AM
 #267

point is, you said 'difficulty will double' causing lots of miners to drop out, but failed to mention this would cause difficulty to drop again.
It's the kind of thing I expect people to realize without mentioning it explicitly, and it doesn't change my point.

i'm speaking on the straight math, no assumptions, no predictions.  nobody knows the full impact if this company ever launches.  nobody knows what gpu miners might do (like selling their gpu's and buying fpg's) or if a retail asic option would become available, so safest not to make any assumptions.

as to people generally realizing that you have to double current hashrate to gain 50% of the hashing power, numerous and repeated postings on these forums speak otherwise.  you most often find it in a statement like, "well if he got 1.2TH hashing, he'd have 10% of the network.".

What? Of course you are making assumptions. Unrealistic ones.

which assumptions am i making?
You are assuming that the number of other people mining will remain constant as difficulty rises. If you believe people who say that a 51% attack attempt will decrease price, you are also assuming that the number of other people mining will remain constant as price falls.

no, the exact opposite.  i'm saying that nobody can predict what will happen, and making predictions with arbitrary percentage drop in hashrate is a terrible idea.
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April 12, 2012, 03:11:20 AM
 #268

Perhaps I misunderstood. I thought you were singling out people who assumed that investing 2 TH when the network is currently 10 TH would yield 20% of the hashing power. Special criticism for this group did not seem consistent with your opposition to any type of assumption.

I don't agree with you that people should avoid making any type of prediction. I think a reasonable prediction is that investing 2 TH when the network is currently 10 TH would yield somewhere between 16.7% and 20% of hashing power.

Anyways, it isn't worthwhile to discuss future events with someone whose only position is that no one knows what the future holds.

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April 12, 2012, 07:34:48 AM
 #269

Open question for Vladimir. Why aren't you planning to sell the ASIC gear to your competition?

The sunk cost of making an ASIC is huge. The marginal cost is small. Why not recover some of  your sunk cost by selling some ASICs at say 4 times marginal cost? Every sale would provide profit sufficient to pay for 2 ASICs for your personal stash (thus providing a net addition to your mining power) and in addition pocket 1 ASIC worth of profit. The more you sell, the more you profit, the more you dominate, the stronger the network.

What's up? It doesn't make sense. Is there a potential for any ASICs you sell to get reverse engineered and thus you don't want to release them? Are you trying to bluff that you have a larger technological advantage than you actually do and thus can't sell ASICs without revealing your secret? Are you a bad businessman? Which one is it.


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April 12, 2012, 02:37:54 PM
 #270

I don't agree with you that people should avoid making any type of prediction. I think a reasonable prediction is that investing 2 TH when the network is currently 10 TH would yield somewhere between 16.7% and 20% of hashing power.

Anyways, it isn't worthwhile to discuss future events with someone whose only position is that no one knows what the future holds.


i disagree with you that its a reasonable prediction that we will see ANY drop off in hashing power.  as i said, there are just too many variables.  how does your prediction take into account potentials like a nice increase in bitcoin value (which historically shows a correlating increase in network hashrate)?  in say butterfly labs shipping singles and mini-rigs in quantity?  in potential new companies sprouting up delivering economical mining machines?  or the numerous other potential events that are realistic?

your forecast is about as valid as a professional weatherman trying to predict the weather on a single day 6 months out.  just too many variables, and the further out you try to forecast, the less valid your predictions.

maybe we see a drop off, maybe we see relative stability, maybe we see a network power increase.  why you think you have special insight and skills of prognosis professional forecasters repeatedly show not to be in possession of, is either overconfident or delusional.
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April 12, 2012, 03:10:12 PM
 #271

cost by selling some ASICs...
i can sell ASIC based cards, is someone would like to buy ? it is very difficult to price... just sample calculation... please correct... the card mined 50BTC per day, let say probably will have 1000BTC till November 1st. The BTC price is - ok, let say US$ 4.5 - so, the card will mine US$ 4500 within 200 days - minus electricity and support cost. What should be the price of card today ?

50BTC*20days=1000BTC, you would start mining October 10 to have approx. 1000BTC by Nov 1st.
That would be a large lead time, but 82GH/s per card.

doesn't correspond to your 200 days statement. Or maybe it's 5btc/day that would be approx 8.2GH/s currently per card then?
200days/30=6.6months. So you have an ASIC BTC miner board to sell now that does 8.2GH/s?

Which is it?

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April 12, 2012, 03:39:17 PM
 #272

Nice April's Fool Vladimir!
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April 12, 2012, 06:53:29 PM
 #273

Nice April's Fool Vladimir!

I think this is true.

Nobody will be stupid enough to invest $1 million into something like BTC mining. Not at this uncertain stage with the reward halving, anyway.

Come on, let's be realistic !
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April 12, 2012, 06:54:12 PM
 #274

Nice April's Fool Vladimir!

I think this is true.

Nobody will be stupid enough to invest $1 into something like BTC mining. Not at this uncertain stage with the reward halving, anyway.

Come on, let's be realistic !
I've invested far more than $1.

Mining Rig Extraordinaire - the Trenton BPX6806 18-slot PCIe backplane [PICS] Dead project is dead, all hail the coming of the mighty ASIC!
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April 13, 2012, 12:35:55 AM
 #275

There is a bitcoin with an entity controlling more than 51%. Its called "mintchip" Cheesy

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April 13, 2012, 01:40:04 AM
 #276

There is a bitcoin with an entity controlling more than 51%. Its called "mintchip" Cheesy
There is a bitcoin with proof-of-stake. It's called "mintchip"  Cheesy

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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April 13, 2012, 01:40:54 AM
 #277

There is a bitcoin with an entity controlling more than 51%. Its called "mintchip" Cheesy
There is a bitcoin with proof-of-stake. It's called "mintchip"  Cheesy

lol.

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April 17, 2012, 06:12:14 PM
 #278

Hey Vlad, have fun taking over the world muahahahaha first bitcoin billionaire indeed Wink

Overclocking = money? Greatest full time hobby ever!
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April 21, 2012, 08:53:45 PM
 #279

However, all investment in ASICs would be lost if the core function had to change.

This is what makes a private ASIC farm extremely risky. Building ASICs to sell to the public on the other hand is far more profitable and much less risky.

This is the open alternative to Vladimir's approach :
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=76351.0

If you don't own the private keys, you don't own the coins.
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April 22, 2012, 06:48:12 AM
 #280

However, all investment in ASICs would be lost if the core function had to change.

This is what makes a private ASIC farm extremely risky. Building ASICs to sell to the public on the other hand is far more profitable and much less risky.

Let me fix that for you: Building ASICs to sell to the public on the other hand is far more profitable for the scam leader and much less risky only to him, because risk is dumped on fools, who buy into this bullshit "business".

You are calling this scam "A public company"?! Really? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_company

While reading what I wrote, use the most friendliest and relaxing voice in your head.
BTW, Things in BTC bubble universes are getting ugly....
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