[XMR] Monero Speculation

[macsga]

We have consensus!

https://twitter.com/cnLedger

PS: XMR climbing nonetheless is a CCMF indicator!

[dEBRUYNE]

From reddit:

Want to talk about trading Moneroj? Join us at /r/MoneroMarkets!

Link: https://www.reddit.com/r/moneromarkets

[macsga]

Really have to wonder what will happen if a bot started biting that 200k wall fast... Hmmm...

[americanpegasus]

I suppose I was wrong about the impending "last chance to buy under 200k forever." 
 
However I can also imagine a world (one which may happen very rapidly, such as by this summer) that brings us $630 bitcoins and Monero at a price of 540k satoshi, meaning $3.40 Monero.

[macsga]

I suppose I was wrong about the impending "last chance to buy under 200k forever."  
  
However I can also imagine a world (one which may happen very rapidly, such as by this summer) that brings us $630 bitcoins and Monero at a price of 540k satoshi, meaning $3.40 Monero.

In terms of USD valuation this can be achieved easily (much sooner) if there are no "price taps" like the one we're observing right now. If you want, the worst part of it would be the fact that the actual seller doesn't know what he's doing (highly unlikely). Market ethics demand fair game for everyone, otherwise participants usually decide to leave the game. We're observing this when he has the wall of his on and the 24h liquidity drops.

Let me explain why this is wrong:

Take for example a top billiard player. If he manages to go to a local club and play with the locals for a bet of 10$, after a couple of games nobody would want to play a game against him. If he's smart enough, he manages to "sell" a couple of games in order to gather more profits in the long term. Otherwise he's either fool or desperate...

[Hueristic]

...

Now it is great time to readjust the interest rates in lending markets. Looks like there are a lot of demand for Moneros right now for shorting purposes. Some kind of "OPEC" style of cartel could be formed in lending markets. 

I agree that this needs to be done, but not for the same reasons. And not just for the lending markets but for the stability of the asset (and the dream). I believe it is inevitable that this coin will be attacked by TPTB and there is no way in which it can be defended against those without a significant portion of the coin being protected. It is just a matter of time and that time is running out as the false Anon coins fall like domino's. As a matter of fact I would not be surprised to find out that a significant portion of the asset is currently held by those powers right at this moment. Many discount my warnings throughout time and inevitable all my prediction come true. Discount this without preparation and you will suffer the consequences. I believe this is the most serious threat to this project, far and above any competitor whether current or future.

But I do not think You TrueCryptonaire are trustworthy enough to be part of this group as you will take the bribe when it appears with no thought to anything but your own self interest. But as for price fixing the lending rate I would say you would adhere to that partially just to make sure you make the highest returns possible. You are an exceptionally self centered person but at least that can be counted on. So I'm sure anyone entering in a deal with you will know that you will stab them in the back when it is to your self interest.

Those that worry about the short term fluctuations are nothing more than profit takers that have nothing but their own self interest at heart and will not take the hit when the walls need to hold. My hope is that this "group" already exists and holds that portion currently. When this happens and the coin is spiraling down for no apparent reason other than a concerted effort to destroy it, that is when the Group needs to make itself known.



/prediction-apocalyptic warning mode off

[bitebits]

^^ It is called an oligopoly: "a state of limited competition, in which a market is shared by a small number of producers or sellers."

I think this is hard to achieve for any crypto currency and for sure not desirable. There is (still) plenty of supply from multiple 'producers', so there will be sellers and lenders for competing rates as well.

[Hueristic]

^^ It is called an oligopoly: "a state of limited competition, in which a market is shared by a small number of producers or sellers."

I think this is hard to achieve and for sure not desirable. There is still plenty of supply from multiple 'producers', so there will be sellers and lenders for competing rates as well.

Plenty is the operative word here, when an entity has the ability to buy the marketcap without breaking a sweat then that "plenty" needs to be quantified and protected. And your idea of "plenty" is very far off the mark. Actually one of our Mathematicians should chime in to quantify what that number is.

[smooth]

^^ It is called an oligopoly: "a state of limited competition, in which a market is shared by a small number of producers or sellers."

I think this is hard to achieve and for sure not desirable. There is still plenty of supply from multiple 'producers', so there will be sellers and lenders for competing rates as well.

Plenty is the operative word here, when an entity has the ability to buy the marketcap without breaking a sweat then that "plenty" needs to be quantified and protected. And your idea of "plenty" is very far off the mark. Actually one of our Mathematicians should chime in to quantify what that number is.

Nobody can buy the market cap regardless of how much they have to spend because it is a moving target, and one that recedes faster the more you try to chase it. As long as some people refuse to sell even infinite money can't buy all of it.

The willingness of people to sell as the price goes up is natural and expected but also limited. Many people hold cryptos for moon and rising prices only increase resolve to hold (and for others to buy!)

Also, you still have to consider mining. As long as there is non-trivial mining that's another reason you can't buy the marketcap, because more coins are being added to it all the time. Anyone can mine even if "all" of the market-float coins are controlled by someone or by people who won't sell.

[iCEBREAKER]

...

Now it is great time to readjust the interest rates in lending markets. Looks like there are a lot of demand for Moneros right now for shorting purposes. Some kind of "OPEC" style of cartel could be formed in lending markets. 

I agree that this needs to be done, but not for the same reasons. And not just for the lending markets but for the stability of the asset (and the dream). I believe it is inevitable that this coin will be attacked by TPTB and there is no way in which it can be defended against those without a significant portion of the coin being protected. It is just a matter of time and that time is running out as the false Anon coins fall like domino's. As a matter of fact I would not be surprised to find out that a significant portion of the asset is currently held by those powers right at this moment. Many discount my warnings throughout time and inevitable all my prediction come true. Discount this without preparation and you will suffer the consequences. I believe this is the most serious threat to this project, far and above any competitor whether current or future.

But I do not think You TrueCryptonaire are trustworthy enough to be part of this group as you will take the bribe when it appears with no thought to anything but your own self interest. But as for price fixing the lending rate I would say you would adhere to that partially just to make sure you make the highest returns possible. You are an exceptionally self centered person but at least that can be counted on. So I'm sure anyone entering in a deal with you will know that you will stab them in the back when it is to your self interest.

Where should we fix the minimum lending rates?  I suggest between 0.075% and 0.1%.  Defectors from our alliance only hurt themselves by getting dust instead of real Monero.

During a good rally, it's always fun the twisting the knife and inducing panic by taking all my available coins off the lending market for a while.   

In other news, Dash is on life support.  Expect their market cap to continue leaking into Monero, as Dash has no plans (nor ability) to defend itself against a Shen-on-Shadowcash style pwning.   

[aminorex]

XMR is currently the only mega-cap coin outperforming BTC on the way up.  This is unusual.  XMR often outperforms falling XBTUSD, but I have never observed it outperforming rising XBTUSD before now.

[Bagatell]

30 day % change

Bitcoin +5% on the euro
Monero +40% on Bitcoin

What's that annualized?

[macsga]

XMR is currently the only mega-cap coin outperforming BTC on the way up.  This is unusual.  XMR often outperforms falling XBTUSD, but I have never observed it outperforming rising XBTUSD before now.

As klee said into his subscribers' channel:

"When we see an alt coin to go up together with BTC, we buy with both hands"...
 

[sadasa]

30 day % change

Bitcoin +5% on the euro
Monero +40% on Bitcoin

What's that annualized?

I do not think you can annualise the return. The price is too volatile. If you annualise, there could be very big drop.

[Bagatell]

Just day dreaming

[Hueristic]

^^ It is called an oligopoly: "a state of limited competition, in which a market is shared by a small number of producers or sellers."

I think this is hard to achieve and for sure not desirable. There is still plenty of supply from multiple 'producers', so there will be sellers and lenders for competing rates as well.

Plenty is the operative word here, when an entity has the ability to buy the marketcap without breaking a sweat then that "plenty" needs to be quantified and protected. And your idea of "plenty" is very far off the mark. Actually one of our Mathematicians should chime in to quantify what that number is.

Nobody can buy the market cap regardless of how much they have to spend because it is a moving target, and one that recedes faster the more you try to chase it. As long as some people refuse to sell even infinite money can't buy all of it.

The willingness of people to sell as the price goes up is natural and expected but also limited. Many people hold cryptos for moon and rising prices only increase resolve to hold (and for others to buy!)

Also, you still have to consider mining. As long as there is non-trivial mining that's another reason you can't buy the marketcap, because more coins are being added to it all the time. Anyone can mine even if "all" of the market-float coins are controlled by someone or by people who won't sell.

You are of course assuming that they purchase it quickly, they would not and there is no way to tell. I used Marketcap as a general number of worth, I'm fully aware its a moving target. :rolleyes:

Think about how you would do it and think about defending against that.

...

Now it is great time to readjust the interest rates in lending markets. Looks like there are a lot of demand for Moneros right now for shorting purposes. Some kind of "OPEC" style of cartel could be formed in lending markets. 

I agree that this needs to be done, but not for the same reasons. And not just for the lending markets but for the stability of the asset (and the dream). I believe it is inevitable that this coin will be attacked by TPTB and there is no way in which it can be defended against those without a significant portion of the coin being protected. It is just a matter of time and that time is running out as the false Anon coins fall like domino's. As a matter of fact I would not be surprised to find out that a significant portion of the asset is currently held by those powers right at this moment. Many discount my warnings throughout time and inevitable all my prediction come true. Discount this without preparation and you will suffer the consequences. I believe this is the most serious threat to this project, far and above any competitor whether current or future.

But I do not think You TrueCryptonaire are trustworthy enough to be part of this group as you will take the bribe when it appears with no thought to anything but your own self interest. But as for price fixing the lending rate I would say you would adhere to that partially just to make sure you make the highest returns possible. You are an exceptionally self centered person but at least that can be counted on. So I'm sure anyone entering in a deal with you will know that you will stab them in the back when it is to your self interest.

Where should we fix the minimum lending rates?  I suggest between 0.075% and 0.1%.  Defectors from our alliance only hurt themselves by getting dust instead of real Monero.

During a good rally, it's always fun the twisting the knife and inducing panic by taking all my available coins off the lending market for a while.   

In other news, Dash is on life support.  Expect their market cap to continue leaking into Monero, as Dash has no plans (nor ability) to defend itself against a Shen-on-Shadowcash style pwning.   

If BTC wasn't on the rise I'd get back in to help you guys cut the shorters off at the balls.

[smooth]

^^ It is called an oligopoly: "a state of limited competition, in which a market is shared by a small number of producers or sellers."

I think this is hard to achieve and for sure not desirable. There is still plenty of supply from multiple 'producers', so there will be sellers and lenders for competing rates as well.

Plenty is the operative word here, when an entity has the ability to buy the marketcap without breaking a sweat then that "plenty" needs to be quantified and protected. And your idea of "plenty" is very far off the mark. Actually one of our Mathematicians should chime in to quantify what that number is.

Nobody can buy the market cap regardless of how much they have to spend because it is a moving target, and one that recedes faster the more you try to chase it. As long as some people refuse to sell even infinite money can't buy all of it.

The willingness of people to sell as the price goes up is natural and expected but also limited. Many people hold cryptos for moon and rising prices only increase resolve to hold (and for others to buy!)

Also, you still have to consider mining. As long as there is non-trivial mining that's another reason you can't buy the marketcap, because more coins are being added to it all the time. Anyone can mine even if "all" of the market-float coins are controlled by someone or by people who won't sell.

You are of course assuming that they purchase it quickly, they would not and there is no way to tell. Think about how you would do it and think about defending against that.

I don't think it is possible no matter how you do it. As I said, the buy pressure will support the price and this leads to people holding (and buying) for moon, plus mining continues.

The only way I think it could mostly work would be if there were no longer any (significant) belief in the possible success of the coin. People would dump and you could absorb the dumps, eventually accumulating most of the float.

But as long as the project is credible I don't see it as plausible regardless of resources of the buyer. People want to own a piece of success.

[Hueristic]

...
I don't think it is possible no matter how you do it. As I said, the buy pressure will support the price and this leads to people holding (and buying) for moon, plus mining continues.

Looks like we both edited a add while we both responded.

OK, lets assume Some 3 letter group says lets put all are hash into finding one transaction, We can do it even if it takes awhile. Then that entity releases that info like Shen just did only playing for time on how they did it. At the same time starting a fud campaign complete with a epic dump and sell wall. The sheeple will run for the hills. There are many scenarios that I have no clue if there is a contingency or not. My point is there should be if this project is to survive long term and not just be a proof of concept for a future one, which may be the goal. how am I to know.

[Hueristic]

We have consensus!

https://twitter.com/cnLedger

PS: XMR climbing nonetheless is a CCMF indicator!

I see nothing worthwhile in this released statement.

This quote does nothing but say we will have another hard fork again and again and again.

This hard-fork is expected to include features which are currently being discussed within technical communities, including an increase in the non-witness data to be around 2 MB, with the total size no more than 4 MB, and will only be adopted with broad support across the entire Bitcoin community.

[smooth]

...
I don't think it is possible no matter how you do it. As I said, the buy pressure will support the price and this leads to people holding (and buying) for moon, plus mining continues.

Looks like we both edited a add while we both responded.

OK, lets assume Some 3 letter group says lets put all are hash into finding one transaction, We can do it even if it takes awhile. Then that entity releases that info like Shen just did only playing for time on how they did it. At the same time starting a fud campaign complete with a epic dump and sell wall. The sheeple will run for the hills. There are many scenarios that I have no clue if there is a contingency or not. My point is there should be if this project is to survive long term and not just be a proof of concept for a future one, which may be the goal. how am I to know.

I'm not denying at all that attacks can happen. No one should expect that a little $10 million coin (or even a $6 billion) coin is secure against well-funded and capable attackers. But I don't think the attack can take the form of buying all the coins, or that is even part of a useful mode of attack; it is closer to counterproductive (other than perhaps a PoS coin).