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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3308086 times)
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October 25, 2016, 09:46:27 PM
 #24521

Is there any reason for Bitcoin going up?

bitcoin's not really up unless you consider 1% a significant move

Year 2021
Bitcoin Supply: ~90% mined
Supply Inflation: <1.8%
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October 25, 2016, 09:52:21 PM
 #24522

Is there any reason for Bitcoin going up?

bitcoin's not really up unless you consider 1% a significant move

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/huobi/btccny

Look at 1 week chart, hard to deny Bitcoin bear market is over.  Every 1% or 2% increase just reaffirms this notion.  Rome wasnt built in a day, it will creep up slowly until FOMO kicks in and things will get crazy again.

With the state of affairs of world financial systems and institution its a perfect storm for a Bitcoin explosion.  Likely orders of magnitude better than ever before during Bitcoins existence.

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October 25, 2016, 10:17:29 PM
 #24523

Definite suppression and accumulation going on.

My thoughts too. People covering/buying back in again, no real sellers. Not to say they can't/won't knock it down some more, but the game gets increasingly risky ...
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October 25, 2016, 10:22:12 PM
 #24524

Is there any reason for Bitcoin going up?

bitcoin's not really up unless you consider 1% a significant move

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/huobi/btccny

Look at 1 week chart, hard to deny Bitcoin bear market is over.  Every 1% or 2% increase just reaffirms this notion.  Rome wasnt built in a day, it will creep up slowly until FOMO kicks in and things will get crazy again.

With the state of affairs of world financial systems and institution its a perfect storm for a Bitcoin explosion.  Likely orders of magnitude better than ever before during Bitcoins existence.


Tim Draper predicts bitcoin can reach $10,000 by 2018. How  high do you think it can reach with this next bull run?

I think thats very possible.  It would be hard to put a number on it, it would be complete speculation but I think even a lot higher than that would be possible.

Imagine a scenario where US loses the petro dollar and oil becomes traded in Bitcoins.  Or a financial system crash of unseen magnitude which seems likely to be in our future.  Euro seems to be dying a slow death, the US dollar is strong but when the petro dollar is gone it will crash hard as well.  The house of cards will come crashing down one day, they can only kick the can down the road so many times.

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October 25, 2016, 10:25:51 PM
 #24525

Is there any reason for Bitcoin going up?

bitcoin's not really up unless you consider 1% a significant move

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/huobi/btccny

Look at 1 week chart, hard to deny Bitcoin bear market is over.  Every 1% or 2% increase just reaffirms this notion.  Rome wasnt built in a day, it will creep up slowly until FOMO kicks in and things will get crazy again.

With the state of affairs of world financial systems and institution its a perfect storm for a Bitcoin explosion.  Likely orders of magnitude better than ever before during Bitcoins existence.


Tim Draper predicts bitcoin can reach $10,000 by 2018. How  high do you think it can reach with this next bull run?

I think thats very possible.  It would be hard to put a number on it, it would be complete speculation but I think even a lot higher than that would be possible.

Imagine a scenario where US loses the petro dollar and oil becomes traded in Bitcoins.  Or a financial system crash of unseen magnitude which seems likely to be in our future.  Euro seems to be dying a slow death, the US dollar is strong but when the petro dollar is gone it will crash hard as well.  The house of cards will come crashing down one day, they can only kick the can down the road so many times.

Will XMR be taken on the ride to higher prices ?
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October 25, 2016, 10:30:38 PM
 #24526

Should have put my question into context, if BTC reaches these prices it will be mainstream and part of a visible and traceable economy. There will always be needs for non traceable currency and will this niche be for XMR thus increasing its value ?
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October 25, 2016, 10:32:10 PM
 #24527


This is excellent analysis. The market has to balance the valuation of the crypto - currency as a whole, market cap, vs the valuation of each individual token, price  in the presence of a limited and highly predictable hyper inflation during the first year. A very likely result will be an initial short lived bull market, price close to parity with Bitcoin is actually possible, followed by a brutal bear market with a loss in the 95% or higher over the subsequent 6 - 9 months. It could take several years for the price to reach the initial bull market price if at all. Here are some prior examples

1) Monero. Initial high 0.01111 XBT, Subsequent low 0.00091 XBT. Initial fall in value of the individual token over 91% in terms of XBT, higher in terms of USD, EUR etc. Monero only exceeded its 2014 per token peak over 2 years later. The market cap when the initial peak was exceeded was 10x and soon went over 20x the market cap of the 2014 peak.  

2) Dogecoin. The 2014 peak was around 0.00000300 XBT the subsequent bear low  0.00000019 XBT Loss for each individual token over 93%. Dogecoin has not seen 0.00000300 XBT since.

3) Dash. Now in this case the phenomenon was mitigated by the instamine; however in spite of the instamine the effect was still present. The 2014 peak was around 0.02740 XBT the subsequent bear low  0.00215 XBT. Loss for each individual token over 92% in terms of XBT

So my take with Zcash is wait about 6-9 moths and then see.

I generally agree.  

But I also realize I stupidly used 12 hour days instead of 24 hours, so have repasted below.  1/34/365 day mkt cap at 0.25 BTC to ZEC is now $34k, $20.1m, and $414m.

Another interesting data point is that with ZEC = 0.25 BTC, and given that BTC has gone through two halvenings, after day 34 the daily dollar value of mined ZEC will be the same as bitcoin.  $1.2m per day, $8.3m per week, $33.2m per month...

Is Monero around 10 XMR per block, 2 minute blocks?  If so, daily emission at $5.92 is around $42k.

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October 25, 2016, 10:34:57 PM
 #24528

Should have put my question into context, if BTC reaches these prices it will be mainstream and part of a visible and traceable economy. There will always be needs for non traceable currency and will this niche be for XMR thus increasing its value ?

Yes there will certainly be and I think Monero will likely come out on top when the money starts flowing into alts after a BTC bubble if/when it happens.  Bitcoin just hit 670 on finex as I typed, 4600 on Huobi.

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October 25, 2016, 10:37:12 PM
Last edit: October 25, 2016, 11:01:22 PM by phoenix rises
 #24529

Should have put my question into context, if BTC reaches these prices it will be mainstream and part of a visible and traceable economy. There will always be needs for non traceable currency and will this niche be for XMR thus increasing its value ?
IMO, yes, absolutely.
Govs will come after the transparent, non-fungible wealth of BTC when the shit hits the fan and the banks are crumbling. XMR absolutely has a niche in this environment (and any other). But money will naturally flow to where the liquidity is first, and most do not understand the relative benfits yet, so it will take time.


EDIT:
Will also be interesting to see how people react to the increasing delays with BTC if it goes on a run- I have a tx that was sent to me with high priority fee nearly 2 hours ago, and it is yet to confirm as the mempool has spiked up to 20MB this afternoon - this is not acceptable. A fairly priced tx has been 'crowded out' by tx's that came later and adjusted fees to the size of the (larger) mempool when they were sent . How is that reasonable? And what will it look like if BTC really gets some volume? Mempool is now sitting at 20MB and I have no idea when this tx will confirm. That is SHIT money. Are we supposed to try and guess what the mempool might be by the time the next block is confirmed. That is ridiculous.And clearly not all wallets are adjusting fees well enough to account for the variance in block times and size of mempool. And nor should they have to to this degree. The problem is at the protocol layer, not the wallets.
The fee when sent was 0.00013144 BTC. Should be fine right ?

"Received Time    2016-10-25 22:01:18
Estimated Confirmation Time    Very Soon (High Priority)"

Lol - 2 hours later ... nothing...

I fail to see how BTC can go much higher (on any volume) without this issue being resolved.
And I welcome this as it will reveal the flaws in BTC  that nobody is willing to address in a timely and non-partisan manner.

And then came XMR ... Wink
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October 25, 2016, 10:40:06 PM
 #24530

Is there any reason for Bitcoin going up?

bitcoin's not really up unless you consider 1% a significant move

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/huobi/btccny

Look at 1 week chart, hard to deny Bitcoin bear market is over.  Every 1% or 2% increase just reaffirms this notion.  Rome wasnt built in a day, it will creep up slowly until FOMO kicks in and things will get crazy again.

With the state of affairs of world financial systems and institution its a perfect storm for a Bitcoin explosion.  Likely orders of magnitude better than ever before during Bitcoins existence.


Tim Draper predicts bitcoin can reach $10,000 by 2018. How  high do you think it can reach with this next bull run?

I think thats very possible.  It would be hard to put a number on it, it would be complete speculation but I think even a lot higher than that would be possible.

Imagine a scenario where US loses the petro dollar and oil becomes traded in Bitcoins.  Or a financial system crash of unseen magnitude which seems likely to be in our future.  Euro seems to be dying a slow death, the US dollar is strong but when the petro dollar is gone it will crash hard as well.  The house of cards will come crashing down one day, they can only kick the can down the road so many times.

I'm curious... what makes you so sure that there is a chance of the US losing it's petro dollar? Is there any notion that something like this could happen?

Also, I'm quite skeptical that all of OPEC will agree to trade oil for only Bitcoins... Bitcoin's blockchain can hardly handle the transactional load of a bunch of geeks; I can't see a world, with 1 Mb blocks, can handle all nations continuously buying/selling for oil.  That would just be insanity, and it won't be long before OPEC will get sick and tired of waiting for confirmation times in order to sell their oil.


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October 25, 2016, 10:47:10 PM
Last edit: October 25, 2016, 11:00:00 PM by wpalczynski
 #24531

Is there any reason for Bitcoin going up?

bitcoin's not really up unless you consider 1% a significant move

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/huobi/btccny

Look at 1 week chart, hard to deny Bitcoin bear market is over.  Every 1% or 2% increase just reaffirms this notion.  Rome wasnt built in a day, it will creep up slowly until FOMO kicks in and things will get crazy again.

With the state of affairs of world financial systems and institution its a perfect storm for a Bitcoin explosion.  Likely orders of magnitude better than ever before during Bitcoins existence.


Tim Draper predicts bitcoin can reach $10,000 by 2018. How  high do you think it can reach with this next bull run?

I think thats very possible.  It would be hard to put a number on it, it would be complete speculation but I think even a lot higher than that would be possible.

Imagine a scenario where US loses the petro dollar and oil becomes traded in Bitcoins.  Or a financial system crash of unseen magnitude which seems likely to be in our future.  Euro seems to be dying a slow death, the US dollar is strong but when the petro dollar is gone it will crash hard as well.  The house of cards will come crashing down one day, they can only kick the can down the road so many times.

I'm curious... what makes you so sure that there is a chance of the US losing it's petro dollar? Is there any notion that something like this could happen?

Also, I'm quite skeptical that all of OPEC will agree to trade oil for only Bitcoins... Bitcoin's blockchain can hardly handle the transactional load of a bunch of geeks; I can't see a world, with 1 Mb blocks, can handle all nations continuously buying/selling for oil.  That would just be insanity, and it won't be long before OPEC will get sick and tired of waiting for confirmation times in order to sell their oil.

I think the days of US terrorizing other nations in order to retain the petro dollar are coming to an end.  Russia and China have simply had enough of this state sponsored terrorism and exploitation of weaker nations.  

The blocksize debate is an issue but I'm confident that it will be resolved.  The parties involved have too much at stake both financially and ideologically to let Bitcoin fail.  Besides, I'm not saying Bitcoin will replace petro dollar for sure, I simply posit that its a possibility and what the realization of that possibility would mean.  In addition I don't think the amount of transactions added to the blockchain should Oil become traded in Bitcoins would be that astronomical.  We are talking about huge payments and settlements but not necessarily executed with high frequency.

Anyway, this is the Monero spec thread not Bitcoin and geopolitics.....

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October 25, 2016, 11:00:38 PM
 #24532


I think thats very possible.  It would be hard to put a number on it, it would be complete speculation but I think even a lot higher than that would be possible.

Imagine a scenario where US loses the petro dollar and oil becomes traded in Bitcoins.  Or a financial system crash of unseen magnitude which seems likely to be in our future.  Euro seems to be dying a slow death, the US dollar is strong but when the petro dollar is gone it will crash hard as well.  The house of cards will come crashing down one day, they can only kick the can down the road so many times.

Will XMR be taken on the ride to higher prices ?

My stance would be that while BTC goes up to say, 3000 us$ at end of 2017, and money will 'trickle down' into XMR to say, 100 us$ end of 2017. I think these are reasonable guesses.
But realize, that this means that BTC will go x5 , and XMR will go x20 relative to the dollar.

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October 25, 2016, 11:04:01 PM
Last edit: October 25, 2016, 11:56:35 PM by phoenix rises
 #24533


I think thats very possible.  It would be hard to put a number on it, it would be complete speculation but I think even a lot higher than that would be possible.

Imagine a scenario where US loses the petro dollar and oil becomes traded in Bitcoins.  Or a financial system crash of unseen magnitude which seems likely to be in our future.  Euro seems to be dying a slow death, the US dollar is strong but when the petro dollar is gone it will crash hard as well.  The house of cards will come crashing down one day, they can only kick the can down the road so many times.

Will XMR be taken on the ride to higher prices ?

My stance would be that while BTC goes up to say, 3000 us at end of 2017, and money will 'trickle down' into XMR to say, 100 us$ end of 2017. I think these are reasonable guesses.
But realize, that this means that BTC will go x5 , and XMR will go x20 relative to the dollar.

If you have to play 'guess the fee' just to get a transaction confirmed on the network, BTC ain't going to 3000 any time soon, and people will switch to more efficient networks. Just give it time ...

Thank you BTC Core Wink


...
The blocksize debate is an issue but I'm confident that it will be resolved. ...

Please see the edit to my previous post re this (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.msg16682623#msg16682623).
The problem is happening right now, and it's hard to see BTC 'mooning' in this scenario IMO.

2 hours, no confirmations, on a high priority tx ... 20 MB mempool, blocks full. There is simply no room for people to get in even if they want to
Sorry to make this a block size thing, as you say, it is the XMR thread, but I am waiting now > 2 hours for my BTC funds to confirm and buy some more XMR lol

And at the end of the day, it is relevant, AS XMR DOES NOT HAVE THIS PROBLEM

This just cost me money ... how long til other people experience the same thing and get 'turned off' BTC ... the sooner the better for XMR Wink

C'mon, what sort of 'money' allows you to pay to jump a queue of people who have paid a fair and reasonable  advertised price at the time of joining said queue, but watching what they have paid and paying more?
It's like getting thown off a full bus you are sitting on after buying a ticket at the advertised price because the transporter sees it is full and revokes passage as others will pay more and gives them priority. In real life that would casue a riot ...

That is bullshit. That is BTC in it's current incarnation.

"Yeh, I know you bought  ticket for now cos you need to travel now, but sorry the bus is full and this guy will to pay more so you gotta get off. You might be able to travel at some random time in a few hours or more if nobody else shows up flashing cash, otherwise we will refund you in 24 hours and you will have to rebook at whatever the price is then. Sorry for any convenience, it's just how it works"
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October 25, 2016, 11:48:34 PM
 #24534

This reminds me of early 2013 when I was looking at BTC price of $92 considering whether to buy or wait for further falls..... (This was after $266 ATH, drop to $50, rise to $120ish again... then dropping sub $100 around August.... etc... )
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October 25, 2016, 11:52:45 PM
 #24535


C'mon, what sort of 'money' allows you to pay to jump a queue of people who have paid a fair and reasonable  advertised price at the time of joining said queue, but watching what they have paid and paying more?
It's like getting thown off a full bus you are sitting on after buying a ticket at the advertised price because the transporter sees it is full and revokes passage as others will pay more and gives them priority. In real life that would casue a riot ...
That is bullshit. That is BTC in it's current incarnation.

Thats how a lot of things work in the world, it ain't fair but neither is life.

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October 25, 2016, 11:59:43 PM
 #24536


C'mon, what sort of 'money' allows you to pay to jump a queue of people who have paid a fair and reasonable  advertised price at the time of joining said queue, but watching what they have paid and paying more?
It's like getting thown off a full bus you are sitting on after buying a ticket at the advertised price because the transporter sees it is full and revokes passage as others will pay more and gives them priority. In real life that would casue a riot ...
That is bullshit. That is BTC in it's current incarnation.

Thats how a lot of things work in the world, it ain't fair but neither is life.

LMAO ... and you really think BTC will succeed with this ethos ? We are not talking about spam tx's here with insufficient fees, we are talking about people who paid the going rate. If you can't see the problem with that you are living very close to a river in Egypt

It's not about fair/unfair, it's about success/failure

And please, give me a real life example of life working like this ... (outside of BTC lol)
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October 26, 2016, 12:04:27 AM
 #24537


C'mon, what sort of 'money' allows you to pay to jump a queue of people who have paid a fair and reasonable  advertised price at the time of joining said queue, but watching what they have paid and paying more?
It's like getting thown off a full bus you are sitting on after buying a ticket at the advertised price because the transporter sees it is full and revokes passage as others will pay more and gives them priority. In real life that would casue a riot ...
That is bullshit. That is BTC in it's current incarnation.

Thats how a lot of things work in the world, it ain't fair but neither is life.

LMAO ... and you really think BTC will succeed with this ethos ? We are not talking about spam tx's here with insufficient fees, we are talking about people who paid the going rate. If you can't see the problem with that you are living very close to a river in Egypt

It's not about fair/unfair, it's about success/failure

And please, give me a real life example of life working like this ... (outside of BTC lol)

Ever paid a bouncer at a club to skip waiting in line?  Or to get into a club when it was full?

If you think life is fair I'm not going to burst your bubble.  Anyway, its a Monero thread not Bitcoin....  Plenty of threads discussing Bitcoin blocksize issues.

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October 26, 2016, 12:15:40 AM
Last edit: October 26, 2016, 12:57:38 AM by phoenix rises
 #24538


Ever paid a bouncer at a club to skip waiting in line?  Or to get into a club when it was full?

If you think life is fair I'm not going to burst your bubble.  Anyway, its a Monero thread not Bitcoin....  Plenty of threads discussing Bitcoin blocksize issues.

Lol - fair/unfair are not words I apply to life. No bubble to burst. I don't recall using the word other than to say it was not about that.
Your analogy does not work, unless you are asking if I have ever paid a bouncer to get into a club and deny entry to  someone else who has aleady booked a place. I wouldn't do it ... maybe you would
But as you say this is the XMR thread, so lets end it, even though it is entirely relevant to why people should be looking closer at XMR and its adaptive blocksize.

All I will say is XMR does not suffer from this problem as it simply makes a bigger club to accommodate the extra people. Let's just say I prefer that world Wink

EDIT: Going to bed now knowing I probably won't be able to travel until some random time tomorrow at best or for another 20 hours when the bus company returns my money enabling me to buy another ticket. How convenient  Roll Eyes
Might check out where I can sign up for their customer loyalty scheme first  Grin
Or maybe look for another bus company ...
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October 26, 2016, 09:43:57 AM
 #24539


Ever paid a bouncer at a club to skip waiting in line?  Or to get into a club when it was full?

If you think life is fair I'm not going to burst your bubble.  Anyway, its a Monero thread not Bitcoin....  Plenty of threads discussing Bitcoin blocksize issues.

Lol - fair/unfair are not words I apply to life. No bubble to burst. I don't recall using the word other than to say it was not about that.
Your analogy does not work, unless you are asking if I have ever paid a bouncer to get into a club and deny entry to  someone else who has aleady booked a place. I wouldn't do it ... maybe you would
But as you say this is the XMR thread, so lets end it, even though it is entirely relevant to why people should be looking closer at XMR and its adaptive blocksize.

All I will say is XMR does not suffer from this problem as it simply makes a bigger club to accommodate the extra people. Let's just say I prefer that world Wink

EDIT: Going to bed now knowing I probably won't be able to travel until some random time tomorrow at best or for another 20 hours when the bus company returns my money enabling me to buy another ticket. How convenient  Roll Eyes
Might check out where I can sign up for their customer loyalty scheme first  Grin
Or maybe look for another bus company ...


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October 26, 2016, 09:58:02 AM
Last edit: October 26, 2016, 03:05:35 PM by phoenix rises
 #24540

@ kurious lol, thanks for that !!  Cheesy
FWIW I was not mad last night, and am not now. It is what it is ... a protocol problem.

Funnily enough as I went to be last night I was thinking how an animated infomercial pretty much identical to your gif would be a great way to educate people on the differences in the way things work between XMR and BTC.
It's a great way for people to visualise the differences. The right person would have whole lot of fun making that! There are so many other angles to come in on too. I can visualise it as almost a parody.

FWIW, tx still stuck - wondering if there is actually a spam attack on BTC going on with fees being paid rather than a dust attack.
Mempool now @ 25MB, fees @ 10.3 BTC ... pretty cheap attack, especilly if half of those end up being returned anyway.
Rinse,repeat ...
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