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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3309477 times)
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November 05, 2016, 05:40:09 AM
 #24801

This whole bear dance is an interesting to watch game of chicken. Who dares to still sell the lowest, to buy back even lower.

Can't say much about the current price. But every time I think about the world's need for (online) financial privacy, and all the subtle answers Monero has for Bitcoin's restrictions, I get bullish on Monero. Can't help it. It is a thing of beauty no-matter it's fiat value.

Deja Vu.

Back in December 2014 people were selling at 0.00110 hoping to buy back at 0.00080. The bottom was 0.00091. Those who bought at 0.00110 and held suffered a paper loss of over 17% and two more paper losses of over 10%. Of course their gains now are at over 500% and at the peak were over 2300%.

As for who sold low (0.00110) hoping to buy lower (0.00080) at the bottom, the "bear pigs" just went to the slaughter.

Trade at your own risk.
I am not interested anymore on selling my XMR as I believe there will be no price fall back again. I am happy to grab the price already so I will just wait and hope the price of bitcoin will be stable again so we can see how XMR react under the situation.

.
.Duelbits.
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November 05, 2016, 08:34:28 AM
Last edit: November 05, 2016, 08:51:50 AM by bitebits
 #24802

Interesting article, although I wish it had more detailed data:
http://woobull.com/data-visualisation-118-coins-plotted-over-time-this-is-why-hodl-alt-coin-indexes-dont-work/

Quote
It seems that alt-coins are best left for trading due to their volatility, but very risky as holds. This may change in the years ahead, but for now, out of 700+ coins in my database I would say less than 5 have a shot of doing something interesting. It reminds me of early stage startup investing actually.

Quote
If anything, average alt-coin performance is getting worse over time, though this is probably due to a lot of scams coming into the marketplace. Quite clearly 2014 with 95 coins on offer was the year of the ICOs.

Now $250,000 market cap is a really small figure to achieve for a coin so we might want to filter these coins to the big leagues. The plot below sets the bar at $10m market cap and the picture improves somewhat:

So from 95 altcoins that started in 2014, only seven live to tell the story today:


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November 05, 2016, 09:31:12 AM
 #24803

Interesting series of tweets by Peter Todd on the zcash founder mining reward:

Quote
It's not a matter of what's fair or not, it's a matter of what's good for the ecosystem

Quote
e.g. 20% is so high it's a significant help to a 51% attacker.

Quote
Equally, tying reward to market cap isn't necessarily ethical - can lead to scam incentive

Quote
And like it or not, @zcashco is very likely to be seen by regs as soliciting investment.

Quote
I should add a writeup of this concern to the disclaimers on my trusted setup post.

https://twitter.com/petertoddbtc/status/794331782241984512

His write up should be interesting!

Did he not even know what he signed up for as trusted person? Unbelievable. This Zcash is truly a total
corporate scam. He should resign immediately rather than write disclaimers, which most people do not
read, just see his name. Once zcash goes down, he and others will also go down. Gavin is already down
the drain for earlier actions.
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November 05, 2016, 11:16:16 AM
 #24804

Interesting series of tweets by Peter Todd on the zcash founder mining reward:

Quote
It's not a matter of what's fair or not, it's a matter of what's good for the ecosystem

Quote
e.g. 20% is so high it's a significant help to a 51% attacker.

Quote
Equally, tying reward to market cap isn't necessarily ethical - can lead to scam incentive

Quote
And like it or not, @zcashco is very likely to be seen by regs as soliciting investment.

Quote
I should add a writeup of this concern to the disclaimers on my trusted setup post.

https://twitter.com/petertoddbtc/status/794331782241984512

His write up should be interesting!

Did he not even know what he signed up for as trusted person? Unbelievable. This Zcash is truly a total
corporate scam. He should resign immediately rather than write disclaimers, which most people do not
read, just see his name. Once zcash goes down, he and others will also go down. Gavin is already down
the drain for earlier actions.


People they believed in this farce to the point of buy into 1 zcash for 3299 bitcoin. After a week see the scenery:



It was a total deception Angry

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November 05, 2016, 12:09:17 PM
 #24805

Fully funded. Thanks to everyone who donated!

Funding Required - Additional GUI Developer (Jaquee) - Currently at 69.71% (1,725/2,475 XMR)

https://forum.getmonero.org/6/ideas/86991/additional-gui-developer

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/5b4kr9/funding_required_additional_gui_developer_jaquee/

Quote
Discussion can be found in the thread and in yesterday's reddit thread:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/5asiiw/additional_gui_developer_jaquee_community/

P.S. Even if you don't have an account you are able to contribute, just press the contribute button and it will explain how to donate.

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Why Monero matters? http://weuse.cash/2016/03/05/bitcoiners-hedge-your-position/
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November 05, 2016, 02:12:02 PM
Last edit: November 05, 2016, 02:59:35 PM by KeyJockey
 #24806


Yes, interesting BUT seems to me like this guy is deliberately leaving MONERO out of his analysis.  Wonder why...

If somebody bought XMR two years ago for about $0.70 seventy cents each when bitcoin average was about $500 each, and now bitcoin is about $700 but Monero spiked up over $12 and has now fallen back to about $5 five bucks range...?  

Well, that’s XMR doubling FOUR times in the interim and settling down to "only" having doubled TWO or THREE times (0.70 to 1.40 to 2.80 to about $5.60-ish).

If Bitcoin had done the same we'd have seen it hit about $8000 and settle back to $2500 today.

Not sure how that doesn't count as "outperform" in his analysis…  Tongue

P.S. {Edit} I copied this post from a comment on his site, which he's now replied to saying that XMR didn't qualify due to not being over $5 Million market cap long enough or something like that.  But other alts like MAID made this cut?  Hm, srsly?  Seems to me like some sketchy pick and choosing of the data set, what's that they say about "Liars, Damn Liars, and Statisticians...?"  LOL

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November 05, 2016, 02:55:19 PM
 #24807


Did he not even know what he signed up for as trusted person? Unbelievable. This Zcash is truly a total
corporate scam. He should resign immediately rather than write disclaimers, which most people do not
read, just see his name. Once zcash goes down, he and others will also go down. Gavin is already down
the drain for earlier actions.


He has nothing to resign from, his participation in the magic ceremony was a one-time event.  Zooko et al were clearly trying to show they were so confident in their process that they could invite someone like Todd who would speak freely.  They may come to regret that, but the alternative, only having friendly people, would have its own problems.
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November 05, 2016, 09:06:34 PM
 #24808


Yes, interesting BUT seems to me like this guy is deliberately leaving MONERO out of his analysis.  Wonder why...

If somebody bought XMR two years ago for about $0.70 seventy cents each when bitcoin average was about $500 each, and now bitcoin is about $700 but Monero spiked up over $12 and has now fallen back to about $5 five bucks range...?  

Well, that’s XMR doubling FOUR times in the interim and settling down to "only" having doubled TWO or THREE times (0.70 to 1.40 to 2.80 to about $5.60-ish).

If Bitcoin had done the same we'd have seen it hit about $8000 and settle back to $2500 today.

Not sure how that doesn't count as "outperform" in his analysis…  Tongue

P.S. {Edit} I copied this post from a comment on his site, which he's now replied to saying that XMR didn't qualify due to not being over $5 Million market cap long enough or something like that.  But other alts like MAID made this cut?  Hm, srsly?  Seems to me like some sketchy pick and choosing of the data set, what's that they say about "Liars, Damn Liars, and Statisticians...?"  LOL

He seems to have something against XMR or is just a BTC maximalist: https://twitter.com/dangermouse117/status/793075939483668482

But cool charts anyway. I think if XMR was added to the 2014 data set, you'd see some even better results vs BTC.

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November 05, 2016, 09:37:18 PM
 #24809

@Saddam @KeyJockey

How do you know Monero is excluded from the data set / which coins are included?

- You can figure out what will happen, not when /Warren Buffett
- Pay any Bitcoin address privately with a little help of Monero.
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November 05, 2016, 10:44:34 PM
 #24810

@Saddam @KeyJockey

How do you know Monero is excluded from the data set / which coins are included?


I doubt Monero has been excluded, but by any objective analysis of the data Monero would be an outlier. He is also comparing Bitcoin trading starting in 2010 after 1 year of hyper inflation with alt-coin trading starting right after alt-coins are release. In the case of Monero the hyper inflation of the first year is included in the analysis; while this was not included in the Bitcoin case  A more apt comparison would be to wait 6 - 9 months to start measuring trading data.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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November 05, 2016, 10:56:13 PM
 #24811


I do wish there was a list of coins used for the data graphs,
although I'm sure someone could pull up a list of coins and their release dates.

And I would totally buy a print of "shit runs downhill". Reminds me of a Jackson Pollock painting.

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November 06, 2016, 12:04:37 AM
 #24812

@Saddam @KeyJockey

How do you know Monero is excluded from the data set / which coins are included?


In this article:

http://woobull.com/data-visualisation-alt-coins-that-achieved-5m-market-cap-vs-bitcoin/

He directly states:

Quote
The coins plotted are: XRP, LTC, OMNI, NXT, PPC, NMC, QRK, DOGE, XPY, BTS, AUR, DASH, MAID, XCP, XLM, BLK, ETH and BCN


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November 06, 2016, 01:41:23 AM
 #24813

@Saddam @KeyJockey

How do you know Monero is excluded from the data set / which coins are included?


In this article:

http://woobull.com/data-visualisation-alt-coins-that-achieved-5m-market-cap-vs-bitcoin/

He directly states:

Quote
The coins plotted are: XRP, LTC, OMNI, NXT, PPC, NMC, QRK, DOGE, XPY, BTS, AUR, DASH, MAID, XCP, XLM, BLK, ETH and BCN



In the comments from that blog post, he explains that XMR was not included because it does not have a 365 day marketcap average above $5m. This appears to be true (times change quickly), although XMR has been above $5m every single day of 2016.

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November 06, 2016, 04:38:45 AM
 #24814

Monero volume has dropped quite a bit.  Interesting reality...  Less interest in it?  Calm before storm?  What kind of storm?
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November 06, 2016, 10:55:04 AM
 #24815

Monero volume has dropped quite a bit.  Interesting reality...  Less interest in it?  Calm before storm?  What kind of storm?

IMO it´s been the same for days just without the market dumper dumping today.
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November 06, 2016, 01:15:28 PM
 #24816

I can't fight the feeling that we'll see the capitulation now.

Well my gut is not always correct but sometimes it is  Smiley

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November 06, 2016, 01:29:38 PM
 #24817

I can't fight the feeling that we'll see the capitulation now.

Well my gut is not always correct but sometimes it is  Smiley

It really depends what will happen in the election.

If there's chaos in traditional markets, BTC could experience a surge over $800 which would lead to temporary alt evacuation.

Interestingly though following the recent BTC dump, Monero was the first and biggest to benefit - a convenient indicator of what might happen after a future BTC bullrun.
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November 06, 2016, 01:41:39 PM
 #24818

what makes you think that price will increase ? Any new promise?
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November 06, 2016, 05:14:33 PM
 #24819

what makes you think that price will increase ? Any new promise?

All the idiots who bought overpriced zec will soon be in a panic to get rid of it.....
I think this will happen before the reward increase in 21 days but  you never know, it could take 1-3 months to completely saturate that market and put zcash at the level  it belongs (~$2 I think lol)
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November 06, 2016, 05:44:29 PM
 #24820

what makes you think that price will increase ? Any new promise?

All the idiots who bought overpriced zec will soon be in a panic to get rid of it.....
I think this will happen before the reward increase in 21 days but  you never know, it could take 1-3 months to completely saturate that market and put zcash at the level  it belongs (~$2 I think lol)

a lot of miners have sold their zec for eth and xmr. they have a lot of xmr. If they sell their share, price may fall. instead of insane zec price fluctuation, is there any cause so that xmr price may climb up ?
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