[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Brilliantrocket]

According to Martinfoilhat Armstrong, The End Of The World^TM is coming Soon^TM.  Later this year!

Quick, pay for a subscription to his newsletter so you have a chance of surviving!

There is a significant XMR event on Sept 4th: Halving Day, when ~half of all 18.4MM coins are emitted and block rewards are half of initial.

There aren't any more milestones until Halving Day 2 (Jan 21, 2017) and Inflection Day in late 2018, when the slope of the emission curve changes from >45 (relatively fast emission) to <45 (slow emission).

Perhaps Martinfoilhat's Sentient AI program has discovered Monero's first Halving Day is the critical event which breaks the world financial system and brings down the 5000 year old Babylon System?

I S  I T  T R U E ?  

Armstrong is a complete nut. Probably got brain damage from the medication they gave him in prison, and now he thinks he can find patterns in markets with the aid of numerology. Pure sophistry.

[1713855547]

1713855547

[iCEBREAKER]

According to Martinfoilhat Armstrong, The End Of The World^TM is coming Soon^TM.  Later this year!

Quick, pay for a subscription to his newsletter so you have a chance of surviving!

There is a significant XMR event on Sept 4th: Halving Day, when ~half of all 18.4MM coins are emitted and block rewards are half of initial.

There aren't any more milestones until Halving Day 2 (Jan 21, 2017) and Inflection Day in late 2018, when the slope of the emission curve changes from >45 (relatively fast emission) to <45 (slow emission).

Perhaps Martinfoilhat's Sentient AI program has discovered Monero's first Halving Day is the critical event which breaks the world financial system and brings down the 5000 year old Babylon System?

I S  I T  T R U E ?  

Armstrong is a complete nut. Probably got brain damage from the medication they gave him in prison, and now he thinks he can find patterns in markets with the aid of numerology. Pure sophistry.

Maybe he's not crazy, just smart and cynical enough to profit from those who are?  His conviction for financial fraud would indicate it's a strong possibility.

Per Barnum's Razor, there will always be a market for numerology, eschatology, and other forms of superstition.

[Brilliantrocket]

Maybe he's not crazy, just smart and cynical enough to profit from those who are?  His conviction for financial fraud would indicate it's a strong possibility.

Per Barnum's Razor, there will always be a market for numerology, eschatology, and other forms of superstition.

Very possible, given how he's always trying to sell something. Seminars, videos, AI.

[dnaleor]

the rise from 0.001 to 0.0045 i think was one new investor-bagholder in xmr. now naturally return to 0.001-0.002 area

Oh no! What if there is another one in the world (what a sobering thought  ) who is interested? Although the probability is very slim given that there are only 7+ billion people in the world and that Monero is the best coin, but still....

The price might make another 4x if another person joins in!

Prepare yourselves!!!1

let's do a second x4 starting at 0.0018 BTC. I can live with that outcome
(or starting at 0.0023, because I think we won't go below 2)

[aminorex]

Armstrong definitely was treated very badly by the courts, definitely engages in puffery, definitely has the marks of a paranoiac, definitely has many marks of a con-man, and definitely is driven by pecuniary interests.

That said, I am convinced that he has done a very thorough analysis of a large amount of data, much of which is not readily accessible to anyone else, and derived useful signal on cyclical phenomena, well beyond the ordinary.  He has substantial exposure to operations at a high level in finance, eschews most or all of the commonplace conspiracy theories, and provides insightful analysis of both his model results and of current events.  That does not make his predictions accurate -- nothing can do that except passage of time and one or both of insight and luck.  I have heard very glowing word of mouth on many of his past analyses, but haven't tracked him long enough or closely enough to know his track record first-hand, so they could all be dupes or shills, for all I know.

He could really use a good graphic designer and PR person, and probably a whole staff of researchers schooled in modern statistical and signal processing methods.  He seems to be trying to operate a one-man show in a 2015 world using 1980 technology and 1998 design sensibilities.  Perhaps unsurprising for an old man not too long out of prison.

[Melbustus]

Where can I find status of Monero development? Things like:

1) How many "core" devs are working on it, and who they are (handles, plus real-names/social-media where public)?
2) Roughly how much time per week/month these devs are spending on it.
3) What the dev roadmap is.
4) What the dev roadmap *was*, and were the milestones hit on-target.

^ You know, basic project management stuff. Looking at git commits only gives hints as to most of this.

[pa]

Where can I find status of Monero development? Things like:

1) How many "core" devs are working on it, and who they are (handles, plus real-names/social-media where public)?
2) Roughly how much time per week/month these devs are spending on it.
3) What the dev roadmap is.
4) What the dev roadmap *was*, and were the milestones hit on-target.

^ You know, basic project management stuff. Looking at git commits only gives hints as to most of this.

Here's a start:

https://getmonero.org/knowledge-base/people
https://getmonero.org/design-goals/
https://forum.getmonero.org/1/news-announcements-and-editorials/134/monday-monero-missives-22-year-in-review-january-5th-2015

[smooth]

Where can I find status of Monero development? Things like:

1) How many "core" devs are working on it, and who they are (handles, plus real-names/social-media where public)?
2) Roughly how much time per week/month these devs are spending on it.
3) What the dev roadmap is.
4) What the dev roadmap *was*, and were the milestones hit on-target.

^ You know, basic project management stuff. Looking at git commits only gives hints as to most of this.

pa's answer was pretty helpful on 1, 3, and 4. 4 may be a bit unsatisfying (I find it so) but given that we have to work with very unpredictable resources it is difficult to ever have timed milestones. So we never have and can't measure against them. That's just how it is.

As far as 2, it isn't formally tracked, but it's a reasonably significant amount of time for a mostly-unfunded open source project when you combine across the core team, the major development contributors, and the research group. I would estimate very roughly 2-3 full time equivalents  (varies somewhat unpredictably over time though), and by that I mean just software development and testing, and work on research reports, not the work we put into communications, third party support, etc.

[Shrikez]

Could the bears be so kind as to get it over with? be hairy and manly, this creeping downwards is bloody boring!

[BitmoreCoin]

Could the bears be so kind as to get it over with? be hairy and manly, this creeping downwards is bloody boring!

They want to dump the coins without crashing the price.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Could the bears be so kind as to get it over with? be hairy and manly, this creeping downwards is bloody boring!

They want to dump the coins without crashing the price.

Exactly.
There is a pressure to sell the coins right now.
Note: I am not a buyer since the situation looks pretty ugly and still the general sentiment is pretty positive.

I sold above 0.003 so if I buy back in even now I would make nice profit.
What got me to sell was the fact that I was asking the community to support 0.004 (you can see this from my post history) and I got answears from the people who like to troll me that "no we are not going to support that price" so I simply drew my conclusion "fine - why should I hold a coin that is not supported at that price since most likely it comes down" and I was right this time. It is coming down like a rock but apparently there are still people holding the coins and they are just looking for exit... However, the longer they waite, the lower their exit will be.
The fact that most likely Monero fails means that most likely it fails... I think people do not get this well. If Monero fails, it means the investors lose pretty much their investment.

[Shrikez]

Could the bears be so kind as to get it over with? be hairy and manly, this creeping downwards is bloody boring!

They want to dump the coins without crashing the price.

[tokeweed]

The trend is over.  I got in at .00125, got out at .00285.

[opennux]

Could the bears be so kind as to get it over with? be hairy and manly, this creeping downwards is bloody boring!

They want to dump the coins without crashing the price.

Exactly.
There is a pressure to sell the coins right now.
Note: I am not a buyer since the situation looks pretty ugly and still the general sentiment is pretty positive.

I sold above 0.003 so if I buy back in even now I would make nice profit.
What got me to sell was the fact that I was asking the community to support 0.004 (you can see this from my post history) and I got answears from the people who like to troll me that "no we are not going to support that price" so I simply drew my conclusion "fine - why should I hold a coin that is not supported at that price since most likely it comes down" and I was right this time. It is coming down like a rock but apparently there are still people holding the coins and they are just looking for exit... However, the longer they waite, the lower their exit will be.
The fact that most likely Monero fails means that most likely it fails... I think people do not get this well. If Monero fails, it means the investors lose pretty much their investment.

You're funny with your word salad. All your strong hodl coins that would never be sold for..what was it again?  

[rpietila]

The trend is over.  I got in at .00125, got out at .00285.

More stuff like this, so I will feel more comfortable in buying again. 

[smooth]

The trend is over.  I got in at .00125, got out at .00285.

Nice trade.

[tokeweed]

The trend is over.  I got in at .00125, got out at .00285.

More stuff like this, so I will feel more comfortable in buying again.  

Oh don't get me wrong.  I love XMR.  What I said doesn't mean I won't be back.

[tokeweed]

The trend is over.  I got in at .00125, got out at .00285.

Nice trade.

Thanks.  I could have sold a little earlier at +.0035.  But with XMR, you never know...  It could go beyond .005, so decided to set a stop order at .00285, so whatever happens at least I have some profit.

[TrueCryptonaire]

The trend is over.  I got in at .00125, got out at .00285.

More stuff like this, so I will feel more comfortable in buying again.  

I think there are too many bulls still when it comes to timing of restarting buying operations.

[Shrikez]

The trend is over.  I got in at .00125, got out at .00285.

More stuff like this, so I will feel more comfortable in buying again.  

If that's the way to get you buying: I got in with a portion at 100 - 120 and out with that portion at 390. The rest is in cold wallets.