[XMR] Monero Speculation

[birr]

When xmr hit dollar parity, it stuck there and has moved only pennies up and down.
Vat iss the meanink of diss!?

[1713560628]

1713560628

[smooth]

When xmr hit dollar parity, it stuck there and has moved only pennies up and down.
Vat iss the meanink of diss!?

Same happened for a long time around 50 cents. I would guess this doesn't mean anything other than that many alts tend to trade relative to fiat now (especially since roughly October of 2015, but somewhat before too), not BTC. When BTC moves, the alts move opposite.

[smfuser]

No one listens to me  even though I am nearly always correct on the markets. How many examples would you need.

Would you mind making each future market prediction in a binary form (which can be objectively judged as true or false by a specified date) along with a specific numeric probability estimate (which you can subsequently update any time)?

[birr]

No one listens to me  even though I am nearly always correct on the markets. How many examples would you need.

Would you mind making each future market prediction in a binary form (which can be objectively judged as true or false by a specified date) along with a specific numeric probability estimate (which you can subsequently update any time)?

Sheesh, don't confuse the poor fellow!

[smooth]

No one listens to me  even though I am nearly always correct on the markets. How many examples would you need.

Would you mind making each future market prediction in a binary form (which can be objectively judged as true or false by a specified date) along with a specific numeric probability estimate (which you can subsequently update any time)?

Probabilistic predictions are okay as long as you keep a comprehensive list of all of them. You can then test how many of the "80%" predictions are satisfied relative to the ideal 80%.

[noobtrader]

EDIT: I also forgot to include in my previous post that AEON is mainly used as a testbed for experimental features that could benefit Monero in the future too. An example would be pruning, which AEON is currently experimenting with.

usually ppl use testnet to do test, not another coin which investor will think as mooney.  if you market them as testnet coin then no one will buy.

[duncnguyen]

  https://www.coingecko.com/en/price_charts/monero/btc

[smooth]

EDIT: I also forgot to include in my previous post that AEON is mainly used as a testbed for experimental features that could benefit Monero in the future too. An example would be pruning, which AEON is currently experimenting with.

usually ppl use testnet to do test, not another coin which investor will think as mooney.  if you market them as testnet coin then no one will buy.

Actually there are some cases where even testnet coins have gained a value and start to be traded. You can't avoid it. People will trade what they want, so I say not to try to stop them, as long as there is no misleading going on.

Please try to stay on topic here though: Monero Speculation

Unless you think that little AEON with 1% of XMR's value is a competitive threat it's not really on topic.

[vuduchyld]

Bullish indicator: look at all the Monero trashing threads on page 1 of Altcoin Discussion.

I love it!

[bitjedi]

Bullish indicator: look at all the Monero trashing threads on page 1 of Altcoin Discussion.

I love it!

Wow, that's pretty hilarious.  bitcointalk is so full of noobs that can't do their own homework or evaluate software themselves...I think those threads actually influence people.

I just started getting into Monero recently but did my own independent analysis of privacy options in cryptos before starting to buy some. I also own or will own most of these, but monero is an increasing part of my portfolio now.

Bitcoin with Stealth Tx and Confidential Tx - Too much taint in the chain already and optional privacy is not as good.  Great for global adoption currently, but lacking in many areas with the number one being scalability at this point.
Ethereum with future optional Ring signatures - Even Vitalik said, "Ethereum makes privacy voluntary, as you have to use mixers to get privacy, whereas Monero makes privacy compulsory, which is better."
Dash - Dash does offer usability in a privacy marketed coin via mixers and darksend if you choose to use it.  It is again, voluntary which as Vitalik pointed out above, not so good.  Also, as a student of cyber security, I would believe that any centralized / federated control structure with masternodes or whatever, can be comprimised via takeover, legal judgement, or via the use of honeypots like the Tor network.  If I can avoid some structure like that, I would prefer it.  Dash also has the highest privacy minded coin marketcap and an incentive structure to buy and hold the coins in masternodes which makes it #2 on my list of investable privacy coins.
Monero - No gui.  I'm pretty technical and have been in bitcoin since 2010 and it took me a few weeks to become comfortable with monero.  The learning curve is not as steep as ethereum, but it's up there.  New users should probably not invest in it or use it yet unless they are technical and want to contribute to the development and QA testing.  The default stealth tx and ring signature system in monero is super compelling to me as the only person you need to trust is yourself and your own private node.  With future RingCT enhancements, it becomes even better.
ZeroCoin / Moneta - Supposedly launching this coming week, and funded by some people that have been around for a while, I think this is a great research project and something to watch, but AFAIK, it's not really usable in a high tx type environment yet.
ZeroCash - To be launched August-ish of this year, backed by big names in the space and based on zk-SNARKs and extrapolation of the ZeroCoin transactional concept.  The tech looks really interesting but tx signing takes 90 seconds + 8.5GB RAM on a high end Intel machine right now.  Also, the devs haven't really decided on scalability hard limits to be included into the coin or how coinbase transactions and fraud detection will work.  Something to watch over the next few years, but no way close to usable.
There were a couple other coins like ShadowCoin or whatever that I looked at quickly but found major flaws so I'm not going to even put them here.

Monero is the only one that I think I would actually be able to use soon and not be concerned about the technology limitations, privacy, and anonymity.  The whole no GUI issue isn't a big deal to me because as long as there's a command line API, someone can build a user friendly app that abstracts out the monero technical stuff.  It's not like Bitcoin adoption is super great because of Bitcoin-QT.

EDIT:  Oh yes, forgot to mention.  The primary goal for me to find a privacy / anon coin is to ensure 100% fungibility of the coin.  I don't want to do some trade with someone and find out later I got a tainted coin from some dark market tx or a coin from a known stolen address and not be able to spend it again.  Part the reason I wanted to find a fungible coin is because after coinbase closed my account without giving me a reason (even when I asked them), I have to only assume it was because of some tainted bitcoins that circulated into my account or were traced back to my account.

[TheKoziTwo]

Any opinions on if there is a bitcoin pump around the halving if Monero will be pegged to bitcoin or fiat?

If BTC rally all alts will lose value compared to BTC. After few weeks when new people come in crypto most alts will start getting value back or even improve it.

Pretty much agree. Also I really find almost impossible the halving pump to happen. When everyone expects something it doesn´t happen.

Edit: It seems we all agree on that topic... maybe we are groupthinking too much??

If you count everybody who says that "everybody expects bitcoin to pump so it won't happen" there's actually quite a few. So not everybody expect bitcoin to pump and that's why it will happen But maybe the pump won't be as big... In any case as long as bitcoin goes up now I think XMR is headed sub 0.002 again.

[inca]

Any opinions on if there is a bitcoin pump around the halving if Monero will be pegged to bitcoin or fiat?

If BTC rally all alts will lose value compared to BTC. After few weeks when new people come in crypto most alts will start getting value back or even improve it.

Pretty much agree. Also I really find almost impossible the halving pump to happen. When everyone expects something it doesn´t happen.

Edit: It seems we all agree on that topic... maybe we are groupthinking too much??

If you count everybody who says that "everybody expects bitcoin to pump so it won't happen" there's actually quite a few. So not everybody expect bitcoin to pump and that's why it will happen But maybe the pump won't be as big... In any case as long as bitcoin goes up now I think XMR is headed sub 0.002 again.

So easy to spot those who have sold and are egging others on to do so.

The truth is no one here knows what will happen if btc bubbles again. Last time it happened in 2013 litecoin hit 45$.

If you like monero for it's merits then it is up to you to decide whether you should buy any. Asking for advice on here is not likely to achieve anything other than revealing a few vocal posters current positions.

[TheKoziTwo]

Any opinions on if there is a bitcoin pump around the halving if Monero will be pegged to bitcoin or fiat?

If BTC rally all alts will lose value compared to BTC. After few weeks when new people come in crypto most alts will start getting value back or even improve it.

Pretty much agree. Also I really find almost impossible the halving pump to happen. When everyone expects something it doesn´t happen.

Edit: It seems we all agree on that topic... maybe we are groupthinking too much??

If you count everybody who says that "everybody expects bitcoin to pump so it won't happen" there's actually quite a few. So not everybody expect bitcoin to pump and that's why it will happen But maybe the pump won't be as big... In any case as long as bitcoin goes up now I think XMR is headed sub 0.002 again.

So easy to spot those who have sold and are egging others on to do so.

The truth is no one here knows what will happen if btc bubbles again. Last time it happened in 2013 litecoin hit 45$.

If you like monero for it's merits then it is up to you to decide whether you should buy any. Asking for advice on here is not likely to achieve anything other than revealing a few vocal posters current positions.

On November 17th LTC was worth $4. At that time BTC had already had a significant rally up to around $460. $4/460 = 0.0087 BTC/LTC. Now that's a pretty low rate, in fact LTC didn't fall much further that year (I believe the bottom was in the 0.007x area).

All altcoins got slaughter until all of sudden, on 18th and forward they started pumping. I know who played a great part in the LTC pump of 2013 and you can read my observations here.

We can't always assume that history will repeat, but if we look at the previous two bubbles the same thing has happened. First altcoins suffer really bad while BTC rallies. Altcoins are reaching new lows and BTC new highs. Then once the BTC rally is getting out of control altcoins starts going up. So, if your argument against the price going lower because LTC went to $48 is going to be logically consistent you will need to expect a significant crash in XMR, perhaps in the lower 0.001x. THEN a pump to something like 0.05.

It's true, nobody really knows what will happen, but this is a speculation topic. I speculate that XMR will be dropping sub 0.002. The reasons why:
1. The violent crash we had breaking all support and taking most by surprise.
2. BTC rally
3. ETH is crashing and I think ETH dragged monero up with it. Now it's going to drag us down.

My theory fails if #2 or #3 changes. I believe I am allowed to voice my opinion regarding the price even if it's negative. Why do you not attack people who think the price is going to $1000 soon? If you're going to be logical consistent with your attacks, you should also attack those who currently hold monero and are talking their book, but in a bullish way.

I suspect that you are emotionally invested, probably in a loss, and attack me because I'm not bullish (short-term). If this topic is going to anything but a circlejerk, opinions from both sides of the table should be accepted.

[smooth]

you can read my observations here.

Interesting post.

Why litecoin? Liquidity. These guys own 5 and 6 digits amount of BTC. They need massive liquidity to increase their holdings by any significant degree.

Certainly brings ETH to mind. XMR? Probably not, but we do have some high volume days too.

[dEBRUYNE]

How XMR and alts in general will behave is kind of ambiguous in my opinion. When BTC went from 220 to 320 last summer XMR remained pretty stable around 200k. It depends on a few factors, namely:

[1] The speed of the BTC surge. If BTC rises slowly it will likely not influence alts that much.
[2] Whether we like it or not, what ETH's price will do.
[3] Development moving forward and new people coming in.

Regarding [3], in my opinion one of the reasons we went back to 100k, next to the Bitcoin rally, was the perceived "delay" of the 0.9.0 release. Furthermore, development seems a lot more active now and I sincerely hope we can move forward in this pace even though the price took a bit of a hit.

Also, if you compare reddit subscribers to the 2015 rally and the 2016 rally, you will see that there is a huge difference:

http://redditmetrics.com/r/Monero

Last year it went up a mere 80 subscribers, whereas this year it went up well over 600 subscribers.


FWIW:

Another 20k taken out to short and subsequently dumped on the market:

http://monerodice.pd.to/polo.php

Around 8:00 (AM) UTC, you can see it on the 1 minute chart.

[TPTB_need_war]

Not kissing anyone's ass, it is just factual. You'll probably want to read the entire post:

[...]

1. I already provided the link to the thread two or three times in this thread, which explains that ICOs sold to non-accredited USA investors are ostensibly illegal.

I hate ICOs by now for other reasons:

2. They contribute to the mainstream thinking that crypto-currency is a scam and thus we will have great difficulty getting CC widely adopted if don't put a stop to these scams.

3. They extract capital to a few scammers, which could be better used to build our real ecosystems which are not vaporware and have real decentralized designs, such as Bitcoin and Monero.

[...]

[TPTB_need_war]

you can read my observations here.

Interesting post.

The salient quote is of course:

Why litecoin? Liquidity. These guys own 5 and 6 digits amount of BTC. They need massive liquidity to increase their holdings by any significant degree. And as such litecoin has been a blessing. Will history repeat itself?

I've had that in my mind for a loooong time. Liquidity is absolutely necessary for the design, marketing, and distribution of crypto-currency, if you want to succeed.

[bitjedi]

you can read my observations here.

Interesting post.

The salient quote is of course:

Why litecoin? Liquidity. These guys own 5 and 6 digits amount of BTC. They need massive liquidity to increase their holdings by any significant degree. And as such litecoin has been a blessing. Will history repeat itself?

I've had that in my mind for a loooong time. Liquidity is absolutely necessary for the design, marketing, and distribution of crypto-currency, if you want to succeed.

Yes, you need a few big market makers to take positions on the coin and provide liquidity like they did for Eth.

[dEBRUYNE]

you can read my observations here.

Interesting post.

The salient quote is of course:

Why litecoin? Liquidity. These guys own 5 and 6 digits amount of BTC. They need massive liquidity to increase their holdings by any significant degree. And as such litecoin has been a blessing. Will history repeat itself?

I've had that in my mind for a loooong time. Liquidity is absolutely necessary for the design, marketing, and distribution of crypto-currency, if you want to succeed.

Yes, you need a few big market makers to take positions on the coin and provide liquidity like they did for Eth.

Compared to the other coins in the top 15 (excluding ETH, LTC, BTC for a moment) XMR has got the best liquidity as far as I can see.

[bitjedi]

you can read my observations here.

Interesting post.

The salient quote is of course:

Why litecoin? Liquidity. These guys own 5 and 6 digits amount of BTC. They need massive liquidity to increase their holdings by any significant degree. And as such litecoin has been a blessing. Will history repeat itself?

I've had that in my mind for a loooong time. Liquidity is absolutely necessary for the design, marketing, and distribution of crypto-currency, if you want to succeed.

Yes, you need a few big market makers to take positions on the coin and provide liquidity like they did for Eth.

Compared to the other coins in the top 15 (excluding ETH, LTC, BTC for a moment) XMR has got the best liquidity as far as I can see.

Which is a really good sign at this stage, given no institutional market maker and no GUI xD