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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3312278 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (2 posts by 1+ user deleted.)
Stringer Bell
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October 09, 2016, 04:28:40 PM
 #23581

Hedging is not without cost or risk.

Quote
In the 2013 journal, Ulbricht comments on 03/24/2013 that he had been “been slowly raising the cost of hedging”, suggesting he was trying to discourage use of it. On 04/10/2013, he writes “some vendors using the hedge in a falling market to profit off of me by buying from themselves. turned of access log pruning so I can investigate later. market crashed today.” This suggests he was no longer keen on the hedging system and was planning on scrapping it anyway when the vendors began abusing it, the market crashed (increasing losses), and then on top of that, the account was drained by what he believed was the DEA (see the journal & spreadsheet entries) a month later.

https://np.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/2tgymg/silk_goxed_how_dpr_used_mtgox_for_hedging_lost_big/

Nice find! Interesting stuff. I remember seeing some spreadsheets a while back, and surprisingly he wasn't actually keeping much profit at all. Spending all the BTC coming in most months on all sorts of stuff, it was an expensive operation. The auction money was customer deposits mostly I recall?

I knew hedging would carry a risk, but I (wrongly) assumed he found some way to make it work. Sound like it was actually costing him a bunch, either from vendors purposely exploiting it or it just wasn't viable at what he was charging for it.

Anyhow, offtopic, sorry! Back to Monero speculation.

I'll throw my little bit in - I have witnessed some real XMR adoption on the markets, not a great deal, 5% overall on Alpha would be stretching it. But, for example - from a few well know vendors with good reputations, some are accepting XMR for all products (smaller stalls) and there are a handful of larger sellers who have elected to sell a few of their smaller items (<$150) for XMR. I believe they are very keen for XMR to prove truly "private", many are waiting I suspect to see that it continues to function(stability/safely) for a bit longer, that the price doesn't crash to 0, that it can't be 'hacked' - this isn't Bitcoin, so trust has to be built, will happen pretty quickly now that people know BTC. Generally after learning the ropes with Monero, my feeling is that most folks will be keen to offer it as an option and to get their own stash together ASAP. It's just going to take some time, and for the necessity of such a currency in this area to become apparent. Will likely happen a lot quicker than it did for BTC, it paved the way for things to move much faster (eg. 1bn market cap for ETH).
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October 09, 2016, 05:10:28 PM
 #23582

There is a way to solve the price volatility problem to the vendors.
Whenever they get paid x amount, they open a short position of x amount. When the escrow is released they close the short position. If the price of Monero has risen, the escrowed amount has risen but the short position is offsetting it. If the price of Monero has dropped, the escrowed amount of Moneros has dropped in value but the short position has risen and thus offsetting the price drop.
...

I believe the original SR had such a system in-place. A seller of goods could "Lock In" an exchange rate, for a particular deal, if they were worried the rate would move against them and make the sale unprofitable. This feature was there fairly early on. Before there were several advanced markets where a trader could do this, SR made it possible for anybody to do it without needing to know what long/short even means.

Perhaps some of today's markets have incorporated this too? I wouldn't be surprised if they haven't, the price of BTC is actually considered pretty stable now. If no such hedging system exists, perhaps they should look at it again - for Monero now especially. I'd say this is one of the big reasons larger traders aren't adopting it right away, the volatility compared to BTC. If they could hedge against the price volatility, same way SR1 made it possible, it would make accepting XMR a no-brainer.

When SR was just getting started, Bitcoin's volatility was worse than Monero's today - we had moves between $1 and $20 for a while, despite this, the demand was so strong a vibrant dark-market was created. In it's wake, hundreds of new markets formed to fill it's place.

SR was way ahead of it's time, looking back on it now..  Great community vibe back then too, that was all killed, not unlike the FUD/troll attacks on the community we've seen on bitcointalk, attempting to make the place hostile and divided.. We must remember what is truly important; Crypto money provides a path to real financial freedom, freedom from central bankers and other organized financial crimes which have been legitimized. Such games are not possible when you play on our system. BTC and XMR can worth together masterfully to help the people reclaim what's rightfully ours. A fair playing field, that is all.

Hedging is not without cost or risk.

Quote
In the 2013 journal, Ulbricht comments on 03/24/2013 that he had been “been slowly raising the cost of hedging”, suggesting he was trying to discourage use of it. On 04/10/2013, he writes “some vendors using the hedge in a falling market to profit off of me by buying from themselves. turned of access log pruning so I can investigate later. market crashed today.” This suggests he was no longer keen on the hedging system and was planning on scrapping it anyway when the vendors began abusing it, the market crashed (increasing losses), and then on top of that, the account was drained by what he believed was the DEA (see the journal & spreadsheet entries) a month later.

https://np.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/2tgymg/silk_goxed_how_dpr_used_mtgox_for_hedging_lost_big/

Of course there  are costs (interests + transactional costs).
Risk is that Poloniex Goxes the hedger.
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October 09, 2016, 05:12:09 PM
Last edit: October 09, 2016, 05:24:09 PM by N-rG
 #23583

Hedging is not without cost or risk.

Quote
In the 2013 journal, Ulbricht comments on 03/24/2013 that he had been “been slowly raising the cost of hedging”, suggesting he was trying to discourage use of it. On 04/10/2013, he writes “some vendors using the hedge in a falling market to profit off of me by buying from themselves. turned of access log pruning so I can investigate later. market crashed today.” This suggests he was no longer keen on the hedging system and was planning on scrapping it anyway when the vendors began abusing it, the market crashed (increasing losses), and then on top of that, the account was drained by what he believed was the DEA (see the journal & spreadsheet entries) a month later.

https://np.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/2tgymg/silk_goxed_how_dpr_used_mtgox_for_hedging_lost_big/


I'll throw my little bit in - I have witnessed some real XMR adoption on the markets, not a great deal, 5% overall on Alpha would be stretching it. But, for example - from a few well know vendors with good reputations, some are accepting XMR for all products (smaller stalls) and there are a handful of larger sellers who have elected to sell a few of their smaller items (<$150) for XMR. I believe they are very keen for XMR to prove truly "private", many are waiting I suspect to see that it continues to function(stability/safely) for a bit longer, that the price doesn't crash to 0, that it can't be 'hacked' - this isn't Bitcoin, so trust has to be built, will happen pretty quickly now that people know BTC. Generally after learning the ropes with Monero, my feeling is that most folks will be keen to offer it as an option and to get their own stash together ASAP. It's just going to take some time, and for the necessity of such a currency in this area to become apparent. Will likely happen a lot quicker than it did for BTC, it paved the way for things to move much faster (eg. 1bn market cap for ETH).

Thanks for ascertain and share

E: poor fluffy, just read some new fud about him...summarizing "fluffy is not interested in dev. anything further cause he is already filling his pockets enough with the fees of https://mymonero.com/#/ "

What a pitty. Someone did a good job and now earn some money with that. Total illegal.

Ok serious. I dont unterstand why people get so jealous. Everyone can contribute to XMR. Buy coins, make a good video/website/fansite/marketing/etc, share it, enjoy rising prices.
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October 09, 2016, 06:46:58 PM
 #23584

'More mooo coding goodness' - Feedback required from community on MoneroMooo's new Forum Funding System proposal

https://forum.getmonero.org/7/open-tasks/86962/more-mooo-coding-goodness

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/56nlan/more_mooo_coding_goodness_feedback_required_from/

Privacy matters, use Monero - A true untraceable cryptocurrency
Why Monero matters? http://weuse.cash/2016/03/05/bitcoiners-hedge-your-position/
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October 09, 2016, 07:45:03 PM
 #23585

'More mooo coding goodness' - Feedback required from community on MoneroMooo's new Forum Funding System proposal

https://forum.getmonero.org/7/open-tasks/86962/more-mooo-coding-goodness


It has been moved to funding required.  Let's go guys, looking at you TrueCryptonaire and N-rG  Smiley
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October 09, 2016, 09:06:24 PM
 #23586

Too late guys, only took an hour for it to be completely funded. 
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October 09, 2016, 09:48:06 PM
 #23587

Go Bulls. Dust is piling up.

Code:
Position Amount Base Price Est. Liquidation Price Unrealized P/L Unrealized Lending Fees Action
Long 13.26473772 XMR 0.01168754 0.00598346 0.00063746 BTC -0.00000043 BTC Close

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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October 09, 2016, 09:52:04 PM
 #23588

Go Bulls. Dust is piling up.

Code:
Position Amount Base Price Est. Liquidation Price Unrealized P/L Unrealized Lending Fees Action
Long 13.26473772 XMR 0.01168754 0.00598346 0.00063746 BTC -0.00000043 BTC Close

Edit 1:
LOL after posting this bulls shriveled up hah.

Edit 2:
Shorting now

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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October 09, 2016, 10:10:59 PM
 #23589

Go Bulls. Dust is piling up.

Code:
Position Amount Base Price Est. Liquidation Price Unrealized P/L Unrealized Lending Fees Action
Long 13.26473772 XMR 0.01168754 0.00598346 0.00063746 BTC -0.00000043 BTC Close

Edit 1:
LOL after posting this bulls shriveled up hah.

Edit 2:
Shorting now

with that tiny amount why not just buy and hold?
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October 09, 2016, 10:29:16 PM
Last edit: October 09, 2016, 10:46:27 PM by Hueristic
 #23590

Go Bulls. Dust is piling up.

Code:
Position Amount Base Price Est. Liquidation Price Unrealized P/L Unrealized Lending Fees Action
Long 13.26473772 XMR 0.01168754 0.00598346 0.00063746 BTC -0.00000043 BTC Close

Edit 1:
LOL after posting this bulls shriveled up hah.

Edit 2:
Shorting now

with that tiny amount why not just buy and hold?

Fun factor. Smiley

I like playing with the bots. Its from dust anyway so it all free.

BTW was kidding, never shorted. lol but closed my long to early. Sad

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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October 09, 2016, 10:55:15 PM
 #23591

Go Bulls. Dust is piling up.

Code:
Position Amount Base Price Est. Liquidation Price Unrealized P/L Unrealized Lending Fees Action
Long 13.26473772 XMR 0.01168754 0.00598346 0.00063746 BTC -0.00000043 BTC Close

Edit 1:
LOL after posting this bulls shriveled up hah.

Edit 2:
Shorting now

with that tiny amount why not just buy and hold?

Fun factor. Smiley

I like playing with the bots. Its from dust anyway so it all free.

BTW was kidding, never shorted. lol but closed my long to early. Sad

What bots are you using?

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October 09, 2016, 11:08:48 PM
 #23592

Go Bulls. Dust is piling up.

Code:
Position Amount Base Price Est. Liquidation Price Unrealized P/L Unrealized Lending Fees Action
Long 13.26473772 XMR 0.01168754 0.00598346 0.00063746 BTC -0.00000043 BTC Close

Edit 1:
LOL after posting this bulls shriveled up hah.

Edit 2:
Shorting now

with that tiny amount why not just buy and hold?

Fun factor. Smiley

I like playing with the bots. Its from dust anyway so it all free.

BTW was kidding, never shorted. lol but closed my long to early. Sad

What bots are you using?

None, Bulls are really pushing .012 good fight going on! Cheesy

I meant I like playing against the bots, they are predictable.

Bears all ran away.

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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October 09, 2016, 11:16:17 PM
 #23593

Every bot was coin fu fighting
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October 09, 2016, 11:25:45 PM
 #23594

Every bot was coin fu fighting

One got freaked out and was bouncing up and down like a yoyo. Lol

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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October 09, 2016, 11:25:54 PM
 #23595

Go Bulls. Dust is piling up.

Code:
Position Amount Base Price Est. Liquidation Price Unrealized P/L Unrealized Lending Fees Action
Long 13.26473772 XMR 0.01168754 0.00598346 0.00063746 BTC -0.00000043 BTC Close

Edit 1:
LOL after posting this bulls shriveled up hah.

Edit 2:
Shorting now

with that tiny amount why not just buy and hold?

Fun factor. Smiley

I like playing with the bots. Its from dust anyway so it all free.

BTW was kidding, never shorted. lol but closed my long to early. Sad

What bots are you using?

None, Bulls are really pushing .012 good fight going on! Cheesy

I meant I like playing against the bots, they are predictable.

Bears all ran away.

Yup!  Its open season on Bears!



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October 09, 2016, 11:33:45 PM
 #23596

Bad time to be Shorting! Lol

Now the question is, where will the profit taking happen?


Now the Bear bots are going spastic. Smiley

Blood in the streets.


“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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October 09, 2016, 11:34:51 PM
 #23597

Unless of course we get a surprise btc spike like the last time xmr was on its way to .03
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October 09, 2016, 11:39:29 PM
 #23598

Either the Chinese have come to play or someone really want's to show off how much btc he has at Polo...  1666 btc buy wall at .00666666?
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October 10, 2016, 12:13:19 AM
 #23599

Unless of course we get a surprise btc spike like the last time xmr was on its way to .03

Wasn't a surprise for the most part. There were predictions before it happened and it was used as a tool by the pumpers to indicate the cap on the rise, just like they did to ETH. You do realize it "spiked" (hardly a spike with $5 increase) for no reason at all. They did it to put the rise to its place and to indicate where altcoins belong in a way.

Just like there is no reason for double bottoms, triple tops etc for a price of an asset in the crypto world. Keep in mind they may and are valid with non-crypto assets. These are just an excuse for trading activity.
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October 10, 2016, 12:27:09 AM
 #23600

The pain was getting too painful. I had to step away for a while. Wasn't expecting to see this when I came back. Dare I cautious optimism? Smiley

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