[XMR] Monero Speculation

[throwaway]

Everybody, please stop quoting the whole freaking thing.

Risto: good luck.

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[toffoo]

About 12-14 more days, and then capitulation near 0.0044. When that has happened, I'll tell if it was the last chance to buy low, or whether there'll be a double bottom later, confirming the new trading zone to be above 0.0042.

- Accumulate near 0.006 if you are totally out now
- Do not touch 0.005-0.006 (falling knife)
- Buy at the capitulation area in 0.004-0.005
- If it dips below 0.004, margin long

So should I listen to this guy?  I normally ignore most external crypto trading advice, but this guy seems pretty smart/rich, so perhaps I should pay attention, despite the fact that his last public call was apparently spectacularly wrong.

I'm a long term monero holder, until recently feeling reasonably bullish with our bounce off of recent lows.  But as an opportunistic trade I think bitcoin will continue to rally toward the end of the year and therefore monero and other alts may continue crashing, so perhaps an opportunity to buy back cheaper.

[bitjedi]

I dunno if you should listen to him, but those price points are inline with my "add to stack" buy indicators.  Might not drop down there again but since we are all long term hodlers we should already have a long position in cold storage.

[rpietila]

attention, despite the fact that his last public call was apparently spectacularly wrong.

Check it out yourself. It was in FACT totally correct. I was the only whale calling bullshit on the whole rise, and predicted the fall to 0.01 and now I am predicting touching 0.004-0.005, not religiously, but as a trading advice that will on average be profitable.

Obviously I could not have made my riches if I had been more wrong than correct over the 20 years I have invested in stock (18 years online).

You are a piece of evidence that people prefer to be influenced by 2nd hand information that includes interpretation and emotions they should feel...  

Instead of paying attention to the source.

[kurious]

We have no right nor the information to judge and/or give advice in this matter.

Indeed.

Good luck Risto.

[rpietila]

Sorry for posting the personal info here. If you want to discuss it further, there is another thread for it now, and you easily find from my post history.


As for Monero speculation, almost everything reinforces my belief that the downtrend is still upon us. The pattern of lower highs and lower lows continues.

The only thing that gives some light is the high-ish volume in the last dip (to 0.0058). If in the next dip, the volume intensifies near that level, we might form a double bottom there instead of 0.004 (which still is my primary projection, as a capitulation range, not as a target price).

0.004 would clean the air and establish the trading range to 0.004-0.010 for the time being (spring rally is only a few months away ).

If no 0.004 now, then there just remains the risk that the capitulation will come later, and what is the fun with that 

[moneyLooser]

Sorry for posting the personal info here. If you want to discuss it further, there is another thread for it now, and you easily find from my post history.


As for Monero speculation, almost everything reinforces my belief that the downtrend is still upon us. The pattern of lower highs and lower lows continues.

The only thing that gives some light is the high-ish volume in the last dip (to 0.0058). If in the next dip, the volume intensifies near that level, we might form a double bottom there instead of 0.004 (which still is my primary projection, as a capitulation range, not as a target price).

0.004 would clean the air and establish the trading range to 0.004-0.010 for the time being (spring rally is only a few months away ).

If no 0.004 now, then there just remains the risk that the capitulation will come later, and what is the fun with that  

It is so obvious that you talk down monero in hope ppl. sell and you can get in again cheap. And refering to your wealth that it looks like "it must be true because he is rich". Actually you only had luck in the right time. Refering to personal skills but mention in the same way mental illnes just gives proof of that.

[bitwolf]

Sorry for posting the personal info here. If you want to discuss it further, there is another thread for it now, and you easily find from my post history.


As for Monero speculation, almost everything reinforces my belief that the downtrend is still upon us. The pattern of lower highs and lower lows continues.

The only thing that gives some light is the high-ish volume in the last dip (to 0.0058). If in the next dip, the volume intensifies near that level, we might form a double bottom there instead of 0.004 (which still is my primary projection, as a capitulation range, not as a target price).

0.004 would clean the air and establish the trading range to 0.004-0.010 for the time being (spring rally is only a few months away ).

If no 0.004 now, then there just remains the risk that the capitulation will come later, and what is the fun with that 

I fully agree with you. The BTC Capitulation will indeed be around 0.004-0.006 XMR.

[CryptoPH]

Sorry for posting the personal info here. If you want to discuss it further, there is another thread for it now, and you easily find from my post history.


As for Monero speculation, almost everything reinforces my belief that the downtrend is still upon us. The pattern of lower highs and lower lows continues.

The only thing that gives some light is the high-ish volume in the last dip (to 0.0058). If in the next dip, the volume intensifies near that level, we might form a double bottom there instead of 0.004 (which still is my primary projection, as a capitulation range, not as a target price).

0.004 would clean the air and establish the trading range to 0.004-0.010 for the time being (spring rally is only a few months away ).

If no 0.004 now, then there just remains the risk that the capitulation will come later, and what is the fun with that 

Indeed, capitulation is necessary. But I prefer the latter one.

[flagel8]

Your kids will likely come around once they are old enough to question and think for themselves. Just keep supporting them from afar, if need be, but make sure they know you are there for them, anytime, anywhere. Thats what counts.

+100 on this.

Risto, thanks for posting all the interesting information and insight. Rest in your castle, and grow strong, and someday you will be there, ready for your kids, when they need you the most.

[smoothie]

Sorry for posting the personal info here. If you want to discuss it further, there is another thread for it now, and you easily find from my post history.


As for Monero speculation, almost everything reinforces my belief that the downtrend is still upon us. The pattern of lower highs and lower lows continues.

The only thing that gives some light is the high-ish volume in the last dip (to 0.0058). If in the next dip, the volume intensifies near that level, we might form a double bottom there instead of 0.004 (which still is my primary projection, as a capitulation range, not as a target price).

0.004 would clean the air and establish the trading range to 0.004-0.010 for the time being (spring rally is only a few months away ).

If no 0.004 now, then there just remains the risk that the capitulation will come later, and what is the fun with that 

I fully agree with you. The BTC Capitulation will indeed be around 0.004-0.006 XMR.

Lol epic reply.

But.....when? 

[rpietila]

Lol epic reply.

But.....when? 

If ever I have been spectacularly wrong, it has been with timing. So all I am saying is that probably before March 

[KeyJockey]

So should I listen to this guy?  I normally ignore most external crypto trading advice, but ...

IMHO it's prudent to "listen to" everyone but consider the source and still make up your own mind on your own investment (or gambling LOL) decisions.

I'm a long term monero holder, until recently feeling reasonably bullish with our bounce off of recent lows.  But as an opportunistic trade I think bitcoin will continue to rally toward the end of the year and therefore monero and other alts may continue crashing, so perhaps an opportunity to buy back cheaper.

FWIW I'm in the same boat, and strongly considering Risto's POV primarily because he's the guy whose first postings about Monero over two years ago initially got me into XMR at all.  For that I have to thank him, he took the time and made the effort to help a lot of people SEE the POTENTIAL of XMR 'way back when. That alone is noteworthy and deserving of "credit where credit is due".

THAT SAID, my own position right now is a little more middle ground than it was, LOL.

I was totally OUT of XMR there for awhile on the speculation that the downtrend would continue, we'd hit 0.004, and I'd be able to buy back twice the XMR that I'd sold off (*all* of my initial stake that I'd been HODL'ing since first taking Risto's advice two years ago...)

But HONESTLY it felt too PAINFUL to NOT be HODL'ing any MONERO any more!!!  I hated the feeling!!!

And now there's a bump UP again looking like maybe we're off to the races again, maybe soon?  But Risto's still saying wait for 0.004...?  AAAAA, what to do?

LOL

My solution is I'm now back IN but only HALFWAY.  Bought back half what I sold off (at a small profit gain, not much but enough to make it worth the effort).

If/when we hit 0.004 (or maybe 0.005 not to be greedy) I'll buy back the other half (plus maybe a little more, "back up the truck" so to speak LOL)

This way I've locked in at least one "doubling" profit denominated in BITCOIN from my original investment two years ago and all the rest of the XMR is now "free and clear, house-money profit".  It can go to ZERO and I won't care (actually I will *care* but not so much, easy come easy go eh? LOL)

I think this is a reasonable middle ground to be able to weather whatever may be coming, but of course Your Mileage May Vary... hope this helps some folks out there struggling with how to interpret all the conflicting 'advice' and opinions around here

[smoothie]

attention, despite the fact that his last public call was apparently spectacularly wrong.

Check it out yourself. It was in FACT totally correct. I was the only whale calling bullshit on the whole rise, and predicted the fall to 0.01 and now I am predicting touching 0.004-0.005, not religiously, but as a trading advice that will on average be profitable.

Obviously I could not have made my riches if I had been more wrong than correct over the 20 years I have invested in stock (18 years online).

You are a piece of evidence that people prefer to be influenced by 2nd hand information that includes interpretation and emotions they should feel...  

Instead of paying attention to the source.

Let me correct you here. TheKoziTwo also called something very similar during the rally.

You weren't the only one.

[rpietila]

Let me correct you here. TheKoziTwo also called something very similar during the rally.

You weren't the only one.

Thank you Sir.

You too.

[narcisco]

About 12-14 more days, and then capitulation near 0.0044. When that has happened, I'll tell if it was the last chance to buy low, or whether there'll be a double bottom later, confirming the new trading zone to be above 0.0042.

- Accumulate near 0.006 if you are totally out now
- Do not touch 0.005-0.006 (falling knife)
- Buy at the capitulation area in 0.004-0.005
- If it dips below 0.004, margin long

Considering the news about the GUI do you think that your prediction is still accurate? When do you think the GUI will be released?
The last bull run caught me on the wrong direction. I was expecting the prices to drop taking into consideration the history of the coin.
 
https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/5c9fnt/for_everyone_eager_to_see_the_gui_heres_a_preview/

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

XMR is in a trading range now with heavy overhead resistance at .01. Monero has been making 6% swings in under 15 minutes. Too risky to trade right now and the risk/reward is not good for buy and hold at these prices. You cannot set reasonable stops the day traders will eat you alive. Better to wait until price breaks through .011 then pulls back to support to buy. It is safer to join in a bull trend once it starts. No one knows which way price is headed if bitcoin takes off again money will flow from Monero to bitcoin and price could tank again.

[phoenix rises]

@rpietila

Lol epic reply.

But.....when?  

If ever I have been spectacularly wrong, it has been with timing. So all I am saying is that probably before March  

I think you misread what smoothie was high-fiving ...

I fully agree with you. The BTC Capitulation will indeed be around 0.004-0.006 XMR

 


As for your most recent price specuations, the short from .00912 is now looking more like a good scalp if you covered it in the election hysteria, nothing more, and it was pretty clear we had just spiked, so lets say that was an easy call. Nothing special.

I was originally on the opinion that we'll see it grinding down for some more time, but actually the momentum points towards a capitulation in a week.

That was a terrible call if anyone listened - they would be 40% offside by now. Nov 2nd 8pm .. we were at about .006 lol

My short term outlook is negative. There is a somewhat likely scenario that XMR does not have positive news, 0.01 is tested and fails, and BTC continues to look good.

In this case, nothing is preventing testing 0.004. That one will hold

That one was OK, short term, if someone covered in the subsequent dip an is not still waiting for .004

I am calling a bottom at 8888.

- Just feels like that
- Dip below 0.01 was defended with reasonable volume and bounced back above
- Hammer in daily yesterday (albeit red)
- In accordance with everything I said since the pump started
- Lucky number.

Another very bad call - made about 10 days before the current low of .0058


I've got no issue with you giving your opinions, but I think you are either massively overstating your ability to predict short term movements in this market or simply talking your book at times.
Neither gives me the confidence to consider your call of .004 nor recommend that anyone else should. Time will tell.
I kinda hope you are right as would absolutely love to buy some at that level  

Long term, I agree, your record is better  , but short term moves, not so much.

FWIW, I do see the chance of lower lows IF BTC rallies hard from here soon. But given that risk markets have stabilised at higher level than the 'Trump surprise', and gold is currently lower than before the election, I think that is unlikely.

Meanwhile  we have GUI and Jaxx imminient, and Ring CT only 2 months away, plus other numerous positive developments in the pipeline created by the attention caused by the rally, so the opportunity for lower lows would seem to me to be decreasing by the day in the absence of a strong BTC upmove. The two seem to be in opposition and I could see us holding ground against BTC if the rally is not soon enough and strong enough.
Holding steady in $'s as BTC moved up, I could see that too til it topped and 'the catapult' was released.

Of course there are many 'unknown  unknowns' out there too!!
(I am half expecting to see Alphabay announce that they are ditching XMR to manipulate the market and buy in cheaper again. But I certainly would not trade based on that possibility ...)



TL;DR : Please don't preach your predictions like they are gospel. Your record recently is nothing to shout about and its kind of embarrassing that you think it is


On another note, I hope you find peace of mind in your castle and wish you luck planning your future from there, whatever you may choose  






 

[Bagatell]

TL;DR : Please don't preach

 

[phoenix rises]

TL;DR : Please don't preach

 

Really? That's your takeaway ? Lol  

EDIT: I may have misunderstood, but I took this to mean that you think I am preaching ... not sure how posting 'stats' would qualify as that.