[XMR] Monero Speculation

[KeyJockey]

the blockstream core implementation is facing strong opposition because they intend to cripple the main chain at 1MB
and have everyone transact on their L2 solution for profit
making the blocks progressively larger over time or dynamic scaling would be a better and cleaner solution imo

in monero it would likely be a cleaner implemenation because there is no crippled 1mb block

Well, that's my opinion of the current situation too... albeit only as an "observer" of the whole debate going on a couple YEARS now already... seeing this situation seeming to devolve into an intractable "mexican standoff" where neither SIDE will budge to effect any kind of resolution.

My own long-term investment in XMR is largely driven by two factors: the expectation that The Market -- if push comes to shove -- WILL attempt to "route around" this "damage" and find another way to utilize the basic crypto-currency concept at all, hence Monero becoming "Bitcoin 2.0" sooner or later.

OR, alternatively (as alluded to above) both technologies maybe finding their relevant NICHE -- bitcoin being the "gold" settlement layer for 2nd-Layer tech used by large concerns and Monero becoming the true-fungible "cash" digital currency that real people can transact their coffee purchases private and anon "ON CHAIN", plus maybe *also* use via these 2nd-Layer tech solutions to boot...

Or, maybe this is totally back-asswards and there's still some scenario here where only BTC can survive as The Single Winner and XMR never amounts to anything more than it has achieved already today? 

Anyone here wanna play devil's advocate and point out how Monero might NOT have a role to play at all in the future of the whole crypto market scene to come

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[GingerAle]

Also... correct me if I'm wrong but can't any 2nd layer anon solution like TumbleBit etc "on top" of bitcoin ALSO work just as well as a 2nd-layer solution ON TOP of MONERO... thus providing even MORE anonymiity overall, as a total solution.

Seem again to me like a no-brainer "XMR wins" situation here, unless I'm missing something important...?

In one of his recent interviews, Fluffypony mentioned adding Tumblebit to Monero, so I think you're right.

edit: Here's the Reddit thread with a link to the interview. There's also some Tumblebit discussion in that thread.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/5fi4mo/interview_with_fluffypony/

Hmm... question for all y'all here who know more about this stuff...

IF these kind of 2nd-layer systems *ever* actually see the light of day, IF they are implemented on top of both Bitcoin and Monero for example... would end-users even really need to know the difference?

Do we -- as simple "wallet users" -- even need to care?

OR would "sending a payment" in either case just be sort of transparent and ultimately "settle" some way, on the underlying "real blockchain" (BTC or XMR or really "whatever") without the "payer" to "payee" really knowing or CARING one way or the other...??

IF it can somehow be made to appear just simple & clean like this, to the actual end-user... then how can anyone see anything other than a huge potential future upside to ALL this technology here?

Yeah of course there's gonna be bumps in the road to actually "getting there" but isn't this really what we are all expecting to see ultimately evolve in this space?

Or am I missing something "big" in this 'big picture" point of view here?

I think you are, and it has to do with fungibility and traceability. As far as I understand any second layer stuff, it always has to settle on the main chain, and the main chain can be tracked, traced, and blacklisted. So say you're on the receiving end of some payment channel contract thing you set up, i dunno, a month ago with entity X, and X is a hub that others have setup channels with etc. Somehow its decided that X is blacklisted, and in this strange new world the mining conglomerates have merged with bitcoin account management firms (aka banks / exchanges) and therefore are all KYC'd and have to follow regulations so they have to follow the blacklisting rules so now... what the hell happens to your contract? The final settlement can never get added to the ledger, so the original opening of the contract will just go back to the sender after the nlock time expires.

So yes, it does matter what the settlement layer is made of.

[KeyJockey]

I think you are, and it has to do with fungibility and traceability....

OK actually I agree with that too: the issues of fungibility for even "normal users" like coinbasers who get their account closed because some transaction two or three hops away from their wallet "just happened" to pass thru a tumbler or a gambling site, for example, are just going to get more and more problematic in the coming few years.  KYC / AML in this situation just cannot "work" in any conventional sense, IMHO...

So, is this a scenario where bitcoin "just fails" due to fundamental flaw of no "true" fungibility, and/or the blocksize issue being unresolvable to boot... and thus XMR takes the throne due to being truly "bitcoin 2.0"...?  Or you see some other end-result scenario?

[GingerAle]

I think you are, and it has to do with fungibility and traceability....

OK actually I agree with that too: the issues of fungibility for even "normal users" like coinbasers who get their account closed because some transaction two or three hops away from their wallet "just happened" to pass thru a tumbler or a gambling site, for example, are just going to get more and more problematic in the coming few years.  KYC / AML in this situation just cannot "work" in any conventional sense, IMHO...

So, is this a scenario where bitcoin "just fails" due to fundamental flaw of no "true" fungibility, and/or the blocksize issue being unresolvable to boot... and thus XMR takes the throne due to being truly "bitcoin 2.0"...?  Or you see some other end-result scenario?

I've mentioned elsewhere that I'm a pretty hardcore monero maximalist. I indeed just wrote a long diatribe about some hybrid system where the state would use something bitcoin like and the people would use Monero, but then I was like "well duh viewkey and auditable record management" (thanks to that sweet new work being done by core team) so I reasoned myself out of that argument.

[KeyJockey]

I've mentioned elsewhere that I'm a pretty hardcore monero maximalist...

Ha... well, yeah... thing is that I too seem to be 'evolving' into a Monero Maximalist as well BUT I'm tryin' to be "reasonable" here and consider how that might still be "wrong"... just to be conservative LOL

This-here thread on XMR Speculation is a great, epic thread but all the same it seems to me to sometimes be a little too much fanboys preaching to the choir too.  

I want to keep my overall crypto-portfolio balanced properly between BTC, XMR and "others" but lately it's felt to me like "all in on XMR alone" might be the way to go.

But that's crazy talk.  Isn't it?  AAAAAAAAA what to do?  What to do?  LOL  

[bitebits]

Can I move coins from a paperwallet without having to download the whole blockchain?

Code:

monero-wallet-cli.exe --daemon-host node.moneroworld.com

For privacy reasons it is however advised to run your own node.

[kurious]

Nice price action...  Any news I am missing?

[Dotto]

I was coming here for the same, Kurious. It seems it´s just whales copulating

[kurious]

Loving the ping pong - enough volatility to hit a few of my sells and then drop a little so I can buy 'em back and accumulate MOAR!

XMR looking chipper though, Dotto - I trust you're well, Sir?

[kurious]

16000 XMR wall at 0.010745....

So was this all whale play?

EDIT: hadn't refreshed, Dotto - you beat me to it.  Large whale fun indeed.  Fun to see walls that big though...

[kurious]

Just got bought in one bite....

Unless whale bought his own wall? 

[bitebits]

Just got bought in one bite....

Unless whale bought his own wall? 

Maybe to increase volume, something I am currently not impressed by.

The XBT and XMR market are both rather calm at the moment. Usually this is followed by sudden heavy volatility. Fun times ahead!

[CTTE]

I've mentioned elsewhere that I'm a pretty hardcore monero maximalist...

Ha... well, yeah... thing is that I too seem to be 'evolving' into a Monero Maximalist as well BUT I'm tryin' to be "reasonable" here and consider how that might still be "wrong"... just to be conservative LOL

This-here thread on XMR Speculation is a great, epic thread but all the same it seems to me to sometimes be a little too much fanboys preaching to the choir too.  

I want to keep my overall crypto-portfolio balanced properly between BTC, XMR and "others" but lately it's felt to me like "all in on XMR alone" might be the way to go.

But that's crazy talk.  Isn't it?  AAAAAAAAA what to do?  What to do?  LOL  

I got that same notion about being "reasonable and conservative" a while back when the price was really low and we didn't have a lot of releases coming out I was afraid it would never moon and I'd be up the creek, so to speak. I thought I should diversify and at that point was hodling about 15k Monero and over the next couple months I would sell a few on the peaks until I was down to about 5k. THE WORST MISTAKE OF MY LIFE!!!!! Well, one of them at least... I was out of cash at the time and couldn't just keep buying without any solid proof the price would take off. I've managed to buy back some of what I had sold but at drastically higher prices but I'm still not where I was...

So, no matter what you should buy on the lows and HODL!

[TrueCryptonaire]

Personally I am glad to see this chart of slow climbing upwards. The longer it can stay this slow the higher it can climb. When the growth rate starts to accelerate significiantly the risk of correction is more imminent. That being said, last rally taught the lesson of the legs. Those who sold during the first leg from 0.004 -> 0.008 lost the gains of the next two legs.

[bbc.reporter]

@TrueCryptonaire. How can you say that if growth starts to accelerate, the risk of a correction will be imminent? That is counterintuitive. Should it not be the opposite? If the growth is growing, the risk of a correction will become smaller and smaller.

I also want to ask how is the growth of Monero use in the darknet market place? Are more vendors using it?

[bitjedi]

@TrueCryptonaire. How can you say that if growth starts to accelerate, the risk of a correction will be imminent? That is counterintuitive. Should it not be the opposite? If the growth is growing, the risk of a correction will become smaller and smaller.

I also want to ask how is the growth of Monero use in the darknet market place? Are more vendors using it?

He's referring to technical trading.  These coins always pump and dump.  pop and drop.  You need to create a bubble price if you are going to burst it.  And yes, there will be a continual cycle of price acceleration creating bubbles and then a correction when dumping.  This typically happens when shorts are forced to buy back at market prices or when big news hits and organic buys eat the sell book.  Then profit taking comes into play and market dynamics kick in to get back to a more normal equilibrium, not one just predicated on some short term technical event.

[rpietila]

I think the situation is good.

Thank you everyone for the lively conversation that followed!

My price predictions do not equal trading advice. I do not even trade. I know some things however. I am still on the opinion that Monero is very, very important, and taking a position is a good idea for everyone. At present, XMR should be much overweighted compared to BTC. Instead of the "traditional" crypto-portfolio weighting of 75% or more of BTC and the rest interesting alts, including XMR, I am now proposing:

25-50% U.S. banknotes
25-50% XMR
rest BTC.

We are headed to rough times and the transactability of BTC is compromised.

ADD: As for my person, Among the other fateful days of my life, a new one has been added:

2008-9-19 Confiscation of all my assets at gunpoint
2011-4-12 Libelous documentary aired to half a million people to finish off my career etc
2013-5-14 Admission to involuntary care including forced medication
2016-11-5 Fled my country, family, etc with only a laptop bag full of cash.

I am doing fine thank you. There is a revolution being planned in Finland (google Icelandic revolution 2009), will probably participate. At least you know who killed me

[TrueCryptonaire]

@TrueCryptonaire. How can you say that if growth starts to accelerate, the risk of a correction will be imminent? That is counterintuitive. Should it not be the opposite? If the growth is growing, the risk of a correction will become smaller and smaller.

I also want to ask how is the growth of Monero use in the darknet market place? Are more vendors using it?

I refered to the speculative bubbles which often pop. That being said, the bubbles pop at higher level than started initially.
In case of organic growth it is exponential indeed (if there are 2 people using it and each convince 1 people, the userbase is 4. But if 4 uses and convinces 1 user each, the growth is twice as high as it was 2 preachers preaching the good news).
Monero is far far from being a mature project in order to dumps being eaten by the markets. Bitcoin has reached closer to that point but even it is still too small for being stable. However, chances are good Monero will develope at faster rate than btc thanks to the second mover advantage.

I have no idea how much vendors use XMR but unfortunately we cannot prevent the junkies and criminals using the best alt.

[obit33]

I have no idea how much vendors use XMR but unfortunately we cannot prevent the junkies and criminals using the best alt.

What is considered 'criminal behaviour' is very very relative in time and space, depends on who's in charge, societal climate etc etc... And yes, these people, whose behaviour has been outlawed will seek the best way to hide said behaviour... This is not something which anyone should seek to prevent, at least not by diminishing anonimity/privacy and thus fungibility in a currency

[TrueCryptonaire]

I have no idea how much vendors use XMR but unfortunately we cannot prevent the junkies and criminals using the best alt.

What is considered 'criminal behaviour' is very very relative in time and space, depends on who's in charge, societal climate etc etc... And yes, these people, whose behaviour has been outlawed will seek the best way to hide said behaviour... This is not something which anyone should seek to prevent, at least not by diminishing anonimity/privacy and thus fungibility in a currency

Criminal = outlawed.
If you live in Somalia which has no law and order there is obviously many things possible but if we look at the majority of countries, most of them has outlawed drugs and certain type of pornography for instance.
The criminal activity has partially ruined the reputation of bitcoin (many still think it is a currency of criminals) so it may not be good for the reputation in the beginning. Therefore, being accepted by the D.N.M. is kinda double edged sword: on the one hand it is nice that XMR has some real use case, on the other hand, it might create reputation to the XMR of being the currency of the bad guys.