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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3312281 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (2 posts by 1+ user deleted.)
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September 30, 2017, 02:18:58 PM
Last edit: September 30, 2017, 03:13:58 PM by Febo
 #32941

Since I invested in Monero in Bittrex the price has gone down and down still now. And I think this trend is continued for last 3 month. Have anybody the idea when the reversal will come?
Right, 3 months. https://www.worldcoinindex.com/coin/monero Click on 3m and look at the fucking chart.

Ha ha from $41 to $95. When most crypto under preform Bitcoin last 3 months.

For sure rare 3 months ago  predicted Monero at $100 at end of September. Most thought HW wallet, mobile wallet and multisig will be the triggers.



PS: Is funny at time of writing this first Monero mobile wallet just come out of Beta: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.m2049r.xmrwallet
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September 30, 2017, 03:37:03 PM
 #32942

at time of writing this first Monero mobile wallet just come out of Beta: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.m2049r.xmrwallet
I installed that wallet on my phone as soon as I found out about it.  I'm hoping that Monero will become well known and widely used as bitcoin, with onine retailers accepting monero, people trading it for cash, and using monero for all the stuff bitcoin is used for now.
But people are creatures of habit and tend to do as they're told, with a respect for authority that verges on reverence.  Never mind how fast the technology develops, it's going to take a long time for society to evolve.  It may be that some catastrophe happens first.
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September 30, 2017, 03:44:29 PM
Last edit: September 30, 2017, 03:58:32 PM by aminorex
 #32943

For sure rare 3 months ago  predicted Monero at $100 at end of September. Most thought HW wallet, mobile wallet and multisig will be the triggers.

Awesome call, that was.  Lately I am more focussed on the (easier, on assumptions) longer-term estimation task:

Monero has consistently repriced higher with each positive development, and the number and scope of bullish developments in the pipe is increasing, not decreasing, as the price, hash and community all rise in tandem.  It's the foothills of the exponential phase of adoption here.  After, comes the super-exponential expansion phase, as n log n network effect  kicks in, composed with a FOMO function.  Eventually, the market saturates at a given development level, FOMO dies, and price pulls back, but until XMR denominates at least 10% of the 22 trillion  USD dark global GDP and at least 1% of the 80 trillion light GDP (for PQ = 3 tUSD) the cycle keeps repeating in a larger S-curve on a scale of ca. 10 years.  If the velocity is an historically typical 5, the market cap of XMR should top out in the neighborhood of 600 bn USD, and 1 XMR should be worth about 30k USD2012.

(The reason why BTC is over 4k now is not the size of the BTC economy, but the outsized reserve demand, which implies a much lower velocity of money.)

In the longer run (multiple decades) XMR value should grow with the global economy, so holding it will be like holding the DJ Global Index, in terms of future expectation at any given moment, which should be modulated by some XMR-specific risk factor.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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September 30, 2017, 04:02:47 PM
 #32944

For sure rare 3 months ago  predicted Monero at $100 at end of September. Most thought HW wallet, mobile wallet and multisig will be the triggers.

Awesome call, that was.  Lately I am more focussed on the (easier, on assumptions) longer-term estimation task:

Monero has consistently repriced higher with each positive development, and the number and scope of bullish developments in the pipe is increasing, not decreasing, as the price, hash and community all rise in tandem.  It's the foothills of the exponential phase of adoption here.  After, comes the super-exponential expansion phase, as n log n network effect  kicks in, composed with a FOMO function.  Eventually, the market saturates at a given development level, FOMO dies, and price pulls back, but until XMR denominates at least 10% of the 22 trillion  USD dark global GDP and at least 1% of the 80 trillion light GDP (for PQ = 3 tUSD) the cycle keeps repeating in a larger S-curve on a scale of ca. 10 years.  If the velocity is an historically typical 5, the market cap of XMR should top out in the neighborhood of 600 bn USD, and 1 XMR should be worth about 30k USD2012.

(The reason why BTC is over 4k now is not the size of the BTC economy, but the outsized reserve demand, which implies a much lower velocity of money.)

In the longer run (multiple decades) XMR value should grow with the global economy, so holding it will be like holding the DJ Global Index, in terms of future expectation at any given moment, which should be modulated by some XMR-specific risk factor.


I covet your enthusiasm currently.  I am discouraged by the deflating XMR/BTC status.
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September 30, 2017, 04:04:14 PM
 #32945

Monerujo - Production Release v1.0 now on Google Play Store - by m2049r

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/73atah/update_monerujo_production_release_v10_now_on/



Privacy matters, use Monero - A true untraceable cryptocurrency
Why Monero matters? http://weuse.cash/2016/03/05/bitcoiners-hedge-your-position/
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September 30, 2017, 04:11:44 PM
 #32946

For sure rare 3 months ago  predicted Monero at $100 at end of September. Most thought HW wallet, mobile wallet and multisig will be the triggers.

Awesome call, that was.  Lately I am more focussed on the (easier, on assumptions) longer-term estimation task:

Monero has consistently repriced higher with each positive development, and the number and scope of bullish developments in the pipe is increasing, not decreasing, as the price, hash and community all rise in tandem.  It's the foothills of the exponential phase of adoption here.  After, comes the super-exponential expansion phase, as n log n network effect  kicks in, composed with a FOMO function.  Eventually, the market saturates at a given development level, FOMO dies, and price pulls back, but until XMR denominates at least 10% of the 22 trillion  USD dark global GDP and at least 1% of the 80 trillion light GDP (for PQ = 3 tUSD) the cycle keeps repeating in a larger S-curve on a scale of ca. 10 years.  If the velocity is an historically typical 5, the market cap of XMR should top out in the neighborhood of 600 bn USD, and 1 XMR should be worth about 30k USD2012.

(The reason why BTC is over 4k now is not the size of the BTC economy, but the outsized reserve demand, which implies a much lower velocity of money.)

In the longer run (multiple decades) XMR value should grow with the global economy, so holding it will be like holding the DJ Global Index, in terms of future expectation at any given moment, which should be modulated by some XMR-specific risk factor.


I covet your enthusiasm currently.  I am discouraged by the deflating XMR/BTC status.

Most GOOD Alts have been deflating since BTC is gaining strength  I suspect BTC pump is incoming.. should have sold earlier..   Cry
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September 30, 2017, 05:42:53 PM
 #32947

Monerujo - Production Release v1.0 now on Google Play Store - by m2049r

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/73atah/update_monerujo_production_release_v10_now_on/




Oh great, an unofficial mobile wallet.
If this doesn't smell like a great scam to steal a shitload of wallets i don't know what does...
It's also nice because they can't just steal your Monero, they can steal every other crypto you have on your mobile as well, gotta love mobile wallets and the mobile system security.
Be warned.

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September 30, 2017, 05:45:31 PM
 #32948

The coinhive.com success will increase the risk of the 51% attack. So why should not we start more of these web-mining services? Mining will be decentralized more and there will be less 51% risk.

The Monero community for sure have ability to do this.

I think there are some people already working on it. I agree it is a good idea to encourage those efforts.


Hmm... Sounds good. So you think some people are working on, or do you know some are working on it?

Think, as in secondhand reports. I don't really know so if you think this is really important don't let my comments discourage.

Also, deleted several posts from our usual spammer shilling another coin and general nonsense/abuse, along with replies
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September 30, 2017, 05:49:51 PM
 #32949

Monerujo - Production Release v1.0 now on Google Play Store - by m2049r

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/73atah/update_monerujo_production_release_v10_now_on/




Oh great, an unofficial mobile wallet.
If this doesn't smell like a great scam to steal a shitload of wallets i don't know what does...
It's also nice because they can't just steal your Monero, they can steal every other crypto you have on your mobile as well, gotta love mobile wallets and the mobile system security.
Be warned.

No idea why mobile wallets even exist, I don't trust my andorid at all, everyone is clueless what the OS is doing and what vulnerabilities or even backdoors may lurk, why would you deposit cryptocurrency on such a device is beyond me.

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September 30, 2017, 05:52:42 PM
 #32950

Monerujo - Production Release v1.0 now on Google Play Store - by m2049r

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/73atah/update_monerujo_production_release_v10_now_on/




Oh great, an unofficial mobile wallet.
If this doesn't smell like a great scam to steal a shitload of wallets i don't know what does...
It's also nice because they can't just steal your Monero, they can steal every other crypto you have on your mobile as well, gotta love mobile wallets and the mobile system security.
Be warned.

No idea why mobile wallets even exist, I don't trust my andorid at all, everyone is clueless what the OS is doing and what vulnerabilities or even backdoors may lurk, why would you deposit cryptocurrency on such a device is beyond me.


Consider a very big portion of all banking is done on mobile devices these days, this problem is not limited to crypto.
Mobile apps can be safe but using a 3rd party app from some unknown anonymous random guy on teh interwebs, sounds very safe!

14b8PdeWLqK3yi3PrNHMmCvSmvDEKEBh3E
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September 30, 2017, 05:53:38 PM
 #32951

Monerujo - Production Release v1.0 now on Google Play Store - by m2049r

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/73atah/update_monerujo_production_release_v10_now_on/




Oh great, an unofficial mobile wallet.
If this doesn't smell like a great scam to steal a shitload of wallets i don't know what does...
It's also nice because they can't just steal your Monero, they can steal every other crypto you have on your mobile as well, gotta love mobile wallets and the mobile system security.
Be warned.

No idea why mobile wallets even exist, I don't trust my andorid at all, everyone is clueless what the OS is doing and what vulnerabilities or even backdoors may lurk, why would you deposit cryptocurrency on such a device is beyond me.




Consider a very big portion of all banking is done on mobile devices these days, this problem is not limited to crypto.
Mobile apps can be safe but using a 3rd party app from some unknown anonymous random guy on teh interwebs, sounds very safe!

How can I trust the apps if I can't trust the OS?

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September 30, 2017, 06:05:11 PM
 #32952


... and 1 XMR should be worth about 30k USD2012


I assume that's last two digits reversed and your crystal ball is saying we can reach this Nirvana by the year 2021...?  Or otherwise what's the projected timescale approximately?

If indeed 2021...? Then, damn son... that's gonna be quick!

Guess I'd better start shopping around for my Private Caribbean Island now, since it'll probably require at least a couple years searching to really find the best one!  Grin

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September 30, 2017, 06:11:48 PM
 #32953

Monerujo - Production Release v1.0 now on Google Play Store - by m2049r

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/73atah/update_monerujo_production_release_v10_now_on/




Oh great, an unofficial mobile wallet.
If this doesn't smell like a great scam to steal a shitload of wallets i don't know what does...
It's also nice because they can't just steal your Monero, they can steal every other crypto you have on your mobile as well, gotta love mobile wallets and the mobile system security.
Be warned.

No idea why mobile wallets even exist, I don't trust my andorid at all, everyone is clueless what the OS is doing and what vulnerabilities or even backdoors may lurk, why would you deposit cryptocurrency on such a device is beyond me.




Consider a very big portion of all banking is done on mobile devices these days, this problem is not limited to crypto.
Mobile apps can be safe but using a 3rd party app from some unknown anonymous random guy on teh interwebs, sounds very safe!

How can I trust the apps if I can't trust the OS?

The same goes for 99.9% of all OSes, people either use Windows or a pre-built linux variant. Even people that are able to read all the code won't take the time for it as it's just undoable.
I don't consider the OS to be the biggest thread here, that would be the malicious apps that pop up by the thousands in the app-stores and as drive-by downloads everywhere..

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September 30, 2017, 06:27:04 PM
 #32954

Monerujo - Production Release v1.0 now on Google Play Store - by m2049r

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/73atah/update_monerujo_production_release_v10_now_on/




Oh great, an unofficial mobile wallet.
If this doesn't smell like a great scam to steal a shitload of wallets i don't know what does...
It's also nice because they can't just steal your Monero, they can steal every other crypto you have on your mobile as well, gotta love mobile wallets and the mobile system security.
Be warned.

No idea why mobile wallets even exist, I don't trust my andorid at all, everyone is clueless what the OS is doing and what vulnerabilities or even backdoors may lurk, why would you deposit cryptocurrency on such a device is beyond me.




Consider a very big portion of all banking is done on mobile devices these days, this problem is not limited to crypto.
Mobile apps can be safe but using a 3rd party app from some unknown anonymous random guy on teh interwebs, sounds very safe!

How can I trust the apps if I can't trust the OS?             

What are you trusting your phone OS with?
                                                             
How much fiat money do you carry in your wallet? $20? $200? $647,243.02?

Use a paperwallet/cryptosteel/hardware wallet for your "bank", and something like Monerujo to hold enough to have a very nice dinner.

You have no real problems then.
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September 30, 2017, 06:48:05 PM
 #32955

Monerujo - Production Release v1.0 now on Google Play Store - by m2049r

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/73atah/update_monerujo_production_release_v10_now_on/




Oh great, an unofficial mobile wallet.
If this doesn't smell like a great scam to steal a shitload of wallets i don't know what does...
It's also nice because they can't just steal your Monero, they can steal every other crypto you have on your mobile as well, gotta love mobile wallets and the mobile system security.
Be warned.

No idea why mobile wallets even exist, I don't trust my andorid at all, everyone is clueless what the OS is doing and what vulnerabilities or even backdoors may lurk, why would you deposit cryptocurrency on such a device is beyond me.

I am no security PRO but from what I was reading mobiles are way more secured then computers running under windows. And since most are, that means you should be safer keep crypto on your mobile then on your computer.
kwukduck  point is elsewhere. He just dont trust this developer.  But so far many tested this wallet and had zero problems. Lest hope that will continue.
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September 30, 2017, 07:29:59 PM
 #32956

...
I am no security PRO but from what I was reading mobiles are way more secured then computers running under windows. And since most are, that means you should be safer keep crypto on your mobile then on your computer.
While I don’t know much about Apple, Android runs all of it’s applications in a virtual machine. Because of that it’s impossible for other applications to access the data from a given application (in this case the wallet software). While it’s not fool proof it does make Android and other Linux (android is based on linux and most all linux have the same security features) much more secure that Windows or Mac.

I'm starting a technology blog T4CH.top, check it out!
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September 30, 2017, 08:01:10 PM
 #32957


... and 1 XMR should be worth about 30k USD2012


I assume that's last two digits reversed and your crystal ball is saying we can reach this Nirvana by the year 2021...?  Or otherwise what's the projected timescale approximately?

If indeed 2021...? Then, damn son... that's gonna be quick!

Guess I'd better start shopping around for my Private Caribbean Island now, since it'll probably require at least a couple years searching to really find the best one!  Grin

I mean constant-value USD as of 2012.  It may be 300k USD2021 by the time a long-term equilibrium is reached.  I don't speculate on the future value of USD, just XMR

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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September 30, 2017, 08:29:16 PM
 #32958

This thread is mostly an echo chamber for XMR advocacy, yo, but I am more than happy to contribute to that end, because XMR is good stuff, and anyone who is influenced to buy it is likely to benefit greatly from doing so.  I have been pumping this stuff since it was a nickel OTC, and everyone who ever bought and held it was made wealthier by it. Those who didn't were not.  

When I actually expect the price to decline I say so.  I think it remains possible certainly, but not very likely much, because we seem to be near the level where miners tend to hold, given the difficulty/price ratio, dramatically changing the marginal price dynamics, and expect that anyone who buys here will probably achieve near the maximum possible gains on a 6 to 12 month time scale which it is still possible to achieve in Monero.  

In general you can't win (or lose) if you aren't in the game, so I am encouraging everyone to get in the game and maintain exposure to XMR at this level, and to do as I do, continuing to buy on weakness, at least down to 018 if we should be blessed with such an unlikely event.

Personally I think XMR > ETH in 1 year, XMR > BTC in 5 years.  That's my primary time-scale.


Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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September 30, 2017, 09:00:02 PM
 #32959


Personally I think XMR > ETH in 1 year, XMR > BTC in 5 years.  That's my primary time-scale.


Setting us up to what will be the most epic/apocalyptic exit scam on the face of the planet exactly one year after the BTC parity...

God help us all...
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September 30, 2017, 09:29:14 PM
 #32960

For sure rare 3 months ago  predicted Monero at $100 at end of September. Most thought HW wallet, mobile wallet and multisig will be the triggers.

Awesome call, that was.  Lately I am more focussed on the (easier, on assumptions) longer-term estimation task:

Monero has consistently repriced higher with each positive development, and the number and scope of bullish developments in the pipe is increasing, not decreasing, as the price, hash and community all rise in tandem.  It's the foothills of the exponential phase of adoption here.  After, comes the super-exponential expansion phase, as n log n network effect  kicks in, composed with a FOMO function.  Eventually, the market saturates at a given development level, FOMO dies, and price pulls back, but until XMR denominates at least 10% of the 22 trillion  USD dark global GDP and at least 1% of the 80 trillion light GDP (for PQ = 3 tUSD) the cycle keeps repeating in a larger S-curve on a scale of ca. 10 years.  If the velocity is an historically typical 5, the market cap of XMR should top out in the neighborhood of 600 bn USD, and 1 XMR should be worth about 30k USD2012.

(The reason why BTC is over 4k now is not the size of the BTC economy, but the outsized reserve demand, which implies a much lower velocity of money.)

In the longer run (multiple decades) XMR value should grow with the global economy, so holding it will be like holding the DJ Global Index, in terms of future expectation at any given moment, which should be modulated by some XMR-specific risk factor.


I covet your enthusiasm currently.  I am discouraged by the deflating XMR/BTC status.
S.O.P. for Monero.
Look at what just happened.  Early August, XMR lost about a third of its value in less than a week.  Bet you were discouraged then, too.  Guess what?  Super bear trap.
Immediately the xmr/btc exchange rate proceeded to triple in a matter of days.
Don't let Composite Man psych you out.
Feel like selling?  May be your chance to buy.
I get pretty annoyed myself at the way the price seems to move with the deliberate attention of faking you out or just pissing you off totally.
Yeah, it goes down like a lead balloon at times.  Look at what happens if you hold on, though.
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