[XMR] Monero Speculation

[generalizethis]

The korean wave of monero  https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/monero/trading_exchanges

Any numbers on past performance in krw?

Just a ballpark figure of the normal daily % will do.

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[NeuroticFish]

The Koreans coming into Monero are what caused the August rise and spike, so not really news.

I've missed that, I guess it was during my holiday when I was behind with the news. Thanks.

But this is a beauty to behold: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/monero/#markets

A year ago we were worried that 99% of the trading was at Poloniex and that it was all dependent on a single exchange.

That exchange is one of many now and is only ranked number 3 now.

Poloniex had troubles with some deposits and withdrawals, especially on Ethereum iirc, and this has upset many and made them leave for another exchanges.
Now.. with 39%... should we get scared of Bithumb? or just admit that we overreacted about Poloniex' reign back then (since it was not really the only one, just the much most used)?

[johnsmithx]

Poloniex had troubles with some deposits and withdrawals, especially on Ethereum iirc, and this has upset many and made them leave for another exchanges.

Poloniex's problem is their daily $25k withdrawal limit that they enforce for cryptos, it's getting more and more inconvenient and annoying. Bitfinex doesn't enforce any withdrawal limit for cryptos.

[minicheff]

I believe DeepOnion will rise in prize.

[Febo]

The korean wave of monero  https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/monero/trading_exchanges

Any numbers on past performance in krw?

Just a ballpark figure of the normal daily % will do.

I dont think many days Fiat volume exceeds BTC volume. Yesterday was the case and not just because high KRW volume but also USD.



For those that are afraid that there is so big chunk of volume on Bithumb, they need to realize that Bithumb is biggest exchange so is sort of normal to be most. And when Poloniex had even 90% volume, nothing really bad happened.

[mambamanagement]

do we have any speculation on how many coins the biggest fish in the monero sea holds?

100k? 300k? do we think anyone out there has a million xmr?

disclaimer: i know it's more than me.

[generalizethis]

do we have any speculation on how many coins the biggest fish in the monero sea holds?

100k? 300k? do we think anyone out there has a million xmr?

disclaimer: i know it's more than me.

700k was the highest I know of--though those were lost at sea in a hack.

[Globb0]

I am out of Bitcoin since 7400, which has proven timely on a short-term scale.  Probably, however, it is premature to conclude the pre-futures, pre-s2x ramp is over.  It also seems too soon to really price-in XMR multisig.  The current ratio feels more like a foreshadowing of the future 3 weeks out than it is like a correction.

A pullback has looked/felt likely for a while. Yet on up it has marched.

6000 is the target in another analysis thread I'm following. I wonder what will happen to the relative Monero price

[aminorex]

Fungibility and conversion: https://mechanicalmarkets.wordpress.com/2017/11/05/bitcoin-nemo-dat/

[Johnny Mnemonic]

do we have any speculation on how many coins the biggest fish in the monero sea holds?

100k? 300k? do we think anyone out there has a million xmr?

disclaimer: i know it's more than me.

700k was the highest I know of--though those were lost at sea in a hack.

I've never heard of anyone having 700k. I'd guess the largest (individual) holder has under 500k XMR. Probably even less.

[generalizethis]

do we have any speculation on how many coins the biggest fish in the monero sea holds?

100k? 300k? do we think anyone out there has a million xmr?

disclaimer: i know it's more than me.

700k was the highest I know of--though those were lost at sea in a hack.

I've never heard of anyone having 700k. I'd guess the largest (individual) holder has under 500k XMR. Probably even less.

Risto's claimed amount that was stolen from him.

[smooth]

do we have any speculation on how many coins the biggest fish in the monero sea holds?

100k? 300k? do we think anyone out there has a million xmr?

disclaimer: i know it's more than me.

700k was the highest I know of--though those were lost at sea in a hack.

I've never heard of anyone having 700k. I'd guess the largest (individual) holder has under 500k XMR. Probably even less.

Remember at one point XMR was under 25 cents. 700k would not have been a particularly large position for even a moderately high net worth individual.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

do we have any speculation on how many coins the biggest fish in the monero sea holds?

100k? 300k? do we think anyone out there has a million xmr?

disclaimer: i know it's more than me.

700k was the highest I know of--though those were lost at sea in a hack.

I've never heard of anyone having 700k. I'd guess the largest (individual) holder has under 500k XMR. Probably even less.

Remember at one point XMR was under 25 cents. 700k would not have been a particularly large position for even a moderately high net worth individual.

Regarding Risto's claim: I have a hard time believing such a claim, because his activity coincided with a very low volume period in Monero's history. Acquiring that many coins would have caused a much greater price (and risk) increase, which I imagine would defeat the purpose of owning such an amount in the first place.

He's probably exaggerating his holdings by at least a factor of 2.

@smooth: I'm not questioning the possibility as much as I'm questioning the reasoning/motive during that time. There wasn't exactly a huge amount of confidence during the 25 cent era. And even if a moderately high net worth individual wanted to acquire 700k XMR during that time, he would not have gotten them all at 25 cents. I assume he would've cleared the order book before even getting his first 100k coins.

[generalizethis]

do we have any speculation on how many coins the biggest fish in the monero sea holds?

100k? 300k? do we think anyone out there has a million xmr?

disclaimer: i know it's more than me.

700k was the highest I know of--though those were lost at sea in a hack.

I've never heard of anyone having 700k. I'd guess the largest (individual) holder has under 500k XMR. Probably even less.

Remember at one point XMR was under 25 cents. 700k would not have been a particularly large position for even a moderately high net worth individual.

Regarding Risto's claim: I have a hard time believing such a claim, because his activity coincided with a very low volume period in Monero's history. Acquiring that many coins would have caused a much greater price (and risk) increase, which I imagine would defeat the purpose of owning such an amount in the first place.

He's probably exaggerating his holdings by at least a factor of 2.

@smooth: I'm not questioning the possibility as much as I'm questioning the reasoning/motive during that time. There wasn't exactly a huge amount of confidence during the 25 cent era.

Risto has always been enthusiastic and vocal about Monero and has never been one to need prompting from the herd to support his opinions, so while I may doubt the hack, I don't doubt the amount--what's great is we'll never know

[Johnny Mnemonic]

I doubt the amount because guys like TheKoziTwo were involved earlier than Risto. He created the first Monero exchange and was in a much better position to acquire a such a large amount, but IIRC he indicated he had less than half of that. Buying 700k coins during that time on the open market doesn't seem possible without a massive price run (which never really happened. USD high post Mintpal pump was like $3). And I doubt he was making any significant OTC purchases either. The community wasn't that big at the time.

EDIT: back to speculation. If XMR breaks $110 this week we will be on target to $425 by December.

[Globb0]

Actually he was an advocate of buy the dips and sell the highs. Then rinse and repeat.

I have always been too scared after a bit of a big loss when it never came back.

[smooth]

@smooth: I'm not questioning the possibility as much as I'm questioning the reasoning/motive during that time. There wasn't exactly a huge amount of confidence during the 25 cent era. And even if a moderately high net worth individual wanted to acquire 700k XMR during that time, he would not have gotten them all at 25 cents. I assume he would've cleared the order book before even getting his first 100k coins.

I'm not so sure about that. Remember 9 million coins were mined (and likely a large fraction of that dumped onto the market) over the first 18 months. Someone wanting to accumulate not even 10% of that could probably do so at a good steady rate without ever clearing the book (in fact possibly without ever making a market order).

Anyway, it doesn't really matter.

[Billy Bunter]

I doubt the amount because guys like TheKoziTwo were involved earlier than Risto. He created the first Monero exchange and was in a much better position to acquire a such a large amount, but IIRC he indicated he had less than half of that. Buying 700k coins during that time on the open market doesn't seem possible without a massive price run (which never really happened. USD high post Mintpal pump was like $3). And I doubt he was making any significant OTC purchases either. The community wasn't that big at the time.

EDIT: back to speculation. If XMR breaks $110 this week we will be on target to $425 by December.

I'm curious how you arrive at that figure. Has it really been pulled from somewhere the sun don't shine or is there a rational basis for it?

[LennyCarl]

Well who the hell has so many moneros that they are willing to loan them out for tiny fractions of a percent on the exchanges?  I mean what is the point...to acquire even more on the cheap?

[explorer]

Well who the hell has so many moneros that they are willing to loan them out for tiny fractions of a percent on the exchanges?  I mean what is the point...to acquire even more on the cheap?

Somebody with a pile of coins for rent cheap died a couple years ago, and those coins just keep lending, and lending, and lending...

Or

Lots of rope is left out, the better to hang shorters when the time comes.  It has always been thus with monero.  > 0.01 % rates happen, but rarely.


add:

33K coins available (not all cheap). Wasn't long ago that anything under 150k was a low float.  Coins under 0.01%  only ~1100 XMR