[XMR] Monero Speculation

[kurious]

The Wall Observer doesn't show signature campaign stuff.  It gets turned off there to stop daft nonsense posting for the sig campaign credits.

If only....

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[kurious]

Criminally undervalued, Can't wait for ledger integration too.
Literally the only technology in the world that can successfully accomplish the function it's claiming

I have a new unwrapped ledger waiting for it, too.

[Globb0]

The Wall Observer doesn't show signature campaign stuff.  It gets turned off there to stop daft nonsense posting for the sig campaign credits.

If only....

Unless the campaign is checking every post I expect they get through anyway on the persons post count.

[solias]

Precisely. I'd love to know the year where infinite monero exist  

Year ∞.  Which is ∞ years after the heat-death of the universe is posited. As to where, I would suggest the conformal point at  ∞.

Can you elaborate on the cold-death of fiat? Specifically, the wealth extraction process populations are subjected to. How does it manifest? I understand you refer to QE its effects, inflations, which raise prices of goods in the economy, diminishing value of everyone's fiat possessions; but as far as I can see, salaries increase proportionally, hence compensating for the loss of purchasing power. Basically money weights a little less in my right pocket, but more enter my left pocket. What I am missing? Is this a multi-faceted process-mechanism that involves other means of extraction, such as emission of government debt or private actors front-running the QE at the upper end of the pipeline?

[Febo]

Surely before too long, it will be impossibly expensive to launch new products into this crowded space when it is not feasible that more than a few can really survive.  There will soon probably be a 'big coin' index, and a 'minor wannabe' market for penny stock type coins.  Coinmarketcap is already a joke.

Yes, indexes or markets will get graded and  separated, but question is how legitimate will this grading look. What we got from Weiss ratings was a total crap.  I am actually afraid the day when regulators will start grading crypto coins and tokens and place them in different groups as blue chips and ...   I hope I am wrong and my fears are not needed.

[phishead]

2019 is the year. Emissions falls silly low.

I expect explosions

Like 1000 USD or higher? I still think 1000 is possible in 2018

I bought monero because I liked monero. Unfortunately it refuses to do anything other than follow bitcoin around everywhere it goes like some sort of lost puppy. It's stupid and annoying but it is what it is. So anyway, the point being, it looks like its going to depend a lot on what bitcoin does. It might outperform bitcoin. We can hope it does of course. There are good reasons to expect that it will. But it doesn't look like its going to climb in value unless bitcoin does also. So you want to figure out how well monero is going to do in 2018? First figure out what you think bitcoin is going to do.

I almost wish bitcoin would die, even though the price of everything in the sector would crash, just so that everything could break free and we could have a dynamic and competitive market with internal relative price discovery. You know, so that the good projects  could actually be separated from the bad. So that the crypto sector could improve based on bad projects dying and good ones absorbing their capital. Instead we have an entire sector that moves togather in one direction or the other irrespective of whether the individual projects are actually garbage.

Frustrating.

I understand what you’re saying, but dude... Monero followed Bitcoin around in 2015 at around .001-.0015 for a while too... it’s not a permanent thing, just a temporary coincidence.

[fromholland]

I bought monero because I liked monero. Unfortunately it refuses to do anything other than follow bitcoin around everywhere it goes like some sort of lost puppy. It's stupid and annoying but it is what it is. So anyway, the point being, it looks like its going to depend a lot on what bitcoin does. It might outperform bitcoin. We can hope it does of course. There are good reasons to expect that it will. But it doesn't look like its going to climb in value unless bitcoin does also. So you want to figure out how well monero is going to do in 2018? First figure out what you think bitcoin is going to do.

I almost wish bitcoin would die, even though the price of everything in the sector would crash, just so that everything could break free and we could have a dynamic and competitive market with internal relative price discovery. You know, so that the good projects  could actually be separated from the bad. So that the crypto sector could improve based on bad projects dying and good ones absorbing their capital. Instead we have an entire sector that moves togather in one direction or the other irrespective of whether the individual projects are actually garbage.

Frustrating.

That's the whole market.
If bitcoin goes up like crazy, alts go down because everyone wants to jump on the btc train.
If bitcoin goes down like crazy, alts go down too because everyone is afraid that the world is gonna end.

Only when btc stays around a certain level for a while, that's when the alts seem to rally.

That being said, I think XMR is a great hedge against BTC, and also one that appreciates in btc value over time!

[Majormax]

If bitcoin goes up like crazy, alts go down because everyone wants to jump on the btc train.
If bitcoin goes down like crazy, alts go down too because everyone is afraid that the world is gonna end.

Only when btc stays around a certain level for a while, that's when the alts seem to rally.

That being said, I think XMR is a great hedge against BTC, and also one that appreciates in btc value over time!

XMR has outperformed BTC over most time periods during the last 2 years.  Looking at a short period is often misleading because prices make their bigger moves in short bursts, with most time spent in trading ranges (and therefore following BTC).

XMR is a slow-burn outperformer, because most traders/buyers don't appreciate the importance of fungibility until they have a lot of experience.

[abulia]

Monero is a great altcoin. It is annoying that monero is so highly correlated to bitcoin. One day people will realize that a coin that is actually accepted by merchants is more important than the 'bitcoin' name.

[Hueristic]

I finally caught a few in a dip, Back to buying a few portion a week. FTFM (fixed that for myself)

I felt naked with none!

[Anon136]

2019 is the year. Emissions falls silly low.

I expect explosions

Like 1000 USD or higher? I still think 1000 is possible in 2018

I bought monero because I liked monero. Unfortunately it refuses to do anything other than follow bitcoin around everywhere it goes like some sort of lost puppy. It's stupid and annoying but it is what it is. So anyway, the point being, it looks like its going to depend a lot on what bitcoin does. It might outperform bitcoin. We can hope it does of course. There are good reasons to expect that it will. But it doesn't look like its going to climb in value unless bitcoin does also. So you want to figure out how well monero is going to do in 2018? First figure out what you think bitcoin is going to do.

I almost wish bitcoin would die, even though the price of everything in the sector would crash, just so that everything could break free and we could have a dynamic and competitive market with internal relative price discovery. You know, so that the good projects  could actually be separated from the bad. So that the crypto sector could improve based on bad projects dying and good ones absorbing their capital. Instead we have an entire sector that moves togather in one direction or the other irrespective of whether the individual projects are actually garbage.

Frustrating.

I understand what you’re saying, but dude... Monero followed Bitcoin around in 2015 at around .001-.0015 for a while too... it’s not a permanent thing, just a temporary coincidence.

I communicated poorly. It's not really that that I hate. It's that shitcoins get boosted up when bitcoin goes up and quality projects go down when bitcoin goes down. Bitcoin going up shouldn't make your worthless garbage product more valuable. It's completely unrelated. It should be completely unrelated anyway. I feel like peoples obsession with bitcoin is subsidizing garbage. They treat the entire sector like its one homogeneous blob and not tons of very different projects that should be evaluated individually on their individual merits. If people would evaluate each project individually it would reward the better ones more and punish the bad ones more and the whole sector would improve more and faster. It would be healthy for the sector. I hope that makes more sense.

You know how people like to talk about zombie banks and zombie corporations. People treating this sector like one homogeneous blob is creating zombie currencies.

[cAPSLOCK]

I communicated poorly. It's not really that that I hate. It's that shitcoins get boosted up when bitcoin goes up and quality projects go down when bitcoin goes down. Bitcoin going up shouldn't make your worthless garbage product more valuable. It's completely unrelated. It should be completely unrelated anyway. I feel like peoples obsession with bitcoin is subsidizing garbage. They treat the entire sector like its one homogeneous blob and not tons of very different projects.

I believe this current situation is unsustainable.  Eventually a handful, or perhaps one project will have gobbled up most of the good ideas as well as the misplaced wealth currently in all the other ideas.

IMHO, the salient question is whether Monero survives or gets gobbled up... and if it's the second path?  When?

[cercitolga4545]

When I see something related to Monero. I think Monero is one of the oldest and most intact of this market. I think it's worth $ 1000. We may not wait too long for this target price.

[Anon136]

Only when btc stays around a certain level for a while, that's when the alts seem to rally.

Interesting observation. Altcoins do well against bitcoin when bitcoin trades sideways but tend to stick with it on the upside and downside. I need to look at some historical data to see how true this is. Interested if other people think they have observed this.

[iCEBREAKER]

I bought monero because I liked monero. Unfortunately it refuses to do anything other than follow bitcoin around everywhere it goes like some sort of lost puppy. It's stupid and annoying but it is what it is. So anyway, the point being, it looks like its going to depend a lot on what bitcoin does. It might outperform bitcoin. We can hope it does of course. There are good reasons to expect that it will. But it doesn't look like its going to climb in value unless bitcoin does also. So you want to figure out how well monero is going to do in 2018? First figure out what you think bitcoin is going to do.

I almost wish bitcoin would die, even though the price of everything in the sector would crash, just so that everything could break free and we could have a dynamic and competitive market with internal relative price discovery. You know, so that the good projects  could actually be separated from the bad. So that the crypto sector could improve based on bad projects dying and good ones absorbing their capital. Instead we have an entire sector that moves togather in one direction or the other irrespective of whether the individual projects are actually garbage.

Frustrating.

Monero has for the last two years outperformed BTC to such an extent that it's now enjoying uber-bullish attempts to make the old 0.03 ceiling the new trading range floor.

You need to zoom out, stop day trading or whatever it is that causing to have such abominably high time preferences, and get a grip, because your frustration is entirely self-imposed and Bitcoin Obituary fantasies unseemly.

Bitcoin is the unstoppable icebreaker-like force clearing our path of immovable objects, so all other cryptocurrencies may follow in its wake.  When you moan about this "faster, please" stuff, it's biting the hand that feeds us.

The emergent global crypto-economy is one of the most dynamic and competitive ("perfect") markets that have ever existed, but here you are asking for even MOAR GAINZ RITE MEOW PLX, like an insatiable hungry ghost.

Stop fretting about the noise; focus on the signal.  Sit tight and be right.  Monero is poised to add another zero very Soon(tm).  Multi-sig, Coinbase, Kovri, Hardware Fluffywallet, etc. are right around the corner.  Then comes the institutional/retail investment on-ramp build-out, like when Grayscale creates a GXMR ETN.

[gulypz]

Monero has a strong position in my head. It will be in higher places in the future for the price. I can invest in this case. Do not cause me to find a little capital.

[aminorex]

Maybe crypto is like PMs where gold is still king after thousands of years.

Bitcoin is more like aluminum than gold.  In order to transfer value it takes much longer and costs vastly more than any other crypto of comparable monetary function.

It remains to be seen whether a settlements network can be salvaged from the ashes of the house Satoshi built and the core team burned down.  I would not invest in bitcoin now, simply because it is not useful now, and I have no confidence in the salvage crew.

Bitcoin should and I hope, will survive.  Its robustness (anti-fragility) is legend and so it is and will be for some time the standard bearer for all crypto.  

A blind, arthritic and demented standard bearer does not seem like a good thing to me. Lack of utility, if it persists, will surely bleed its value inexorably down. I hope I am proven wrong because the wake of a sinking titan can capsize numerous lesser vessels. Even a sound one will be tossed brutally in those swells.

Monero has a lead for being perceived as honest and unflashy.  And it has a use-case.   As long as the use case is required it will be hard for other coins to take over its place.  Optional privacy may be added to other coins, but Monero's privacy by default is the only way, so it has a good chance of being one of the 'few' to make it.

Not only does it have a use case, but it is actually fit for purpose.  At least one of ten ICOs has a plausible, or even a legitimate and viable use case and hence a niche. But far fewer are actually fit for that use, and all have much narrower niches than monero, save perhaps transparent liquidity and possibly even contracts.  What is the likely successor to BTC for liquidity?  Well, LTC transfers per unit of market cap are vastly higher than BitcoinCash, so it is looking remarkably and surprisingly useful, in addition to it's tenure.

I don't think ETH is a robust contracts platform.  All the larceny is sufficient to discredit ETH.  Usability is still at the squat toilet level.  But...It could be a long while before a 10x better platform emerges - and that is usually what it takes to displace an incumbent, a 10x ROI.

[noobtrader]

Bitcoin is more like aluminum than gold.  In order to transfer value it takes much longer and costs vastly more than any other crypto of comparable monetary function.

sooooo... xmr tx fee is cheaper than bitcoin now ?

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactionfees-btc-xmr.html#3m

 

EDIT : 
BTC av tx fee  3.4 usd 
xmr av tx fee  6.5 usd 

[explorer]

Bitcoin is more like aluminum than gold.  In order to transfer value it takes much longer and costs vastly more than any other crypto of comparable monetary function.

sooooo... xmr tx fee is cheaper than bitcoin now ?

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactionfees-btc-xmr.html#3m

 

EDIT :  
BTC av tx fee  3.4 usd  
xmr av tx fee  6.5 usd  

BTC transfers have been clearing next block for under 10 cents recently.  XMR about 75 cents.  I don't know who is paying more, but it is free choice for the most part.

[Anon136]

Bitcoin is more like aluminum than gold.  In order to transfer value it takes much longer and costs vastly more than any other crypto of comparable monetary function.

sooooo... xmr tx fee is cheaper than bitcoin now ?

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactionfees-btc-xmr.html#3m

 

EDIT :  
BTC av tx fee  3.4 usd  
xmr av tx fee  6.5 usd  

BTC transfers have been clearing next block for under 10 cents recently.  XMR about 75 cents.  I don't know who is paying more, but it is free choice for the most part.

It would be nice if the client could tell you the optimal fee to pay for a desired outcome based on recent data. Like:

1) 90% chance on next block 97% chance on second block 99% chance on third = 0.01xmr fee
2) 80% chance on next block 90% chance on second block 97% chance on third = 0.005xmr fee
3) 70% chance on next block 85% chance on second block 94% chance on third = 0.002xmr fee

Or maybe like this:

1) 1 block till >99% chance, <1% chance of never getting included = 0.01xmr fee
2) 3 blocks till 99% chance, 2 blocks till 80% chance, 1 blocks till 50% chance, <1% chance of never getting included = 0.005xmr fee
3) 8 blocks till 99% chance, 4 blocks till 80% chance, 2 blocks till 50% chance, 5% chance of never getting included = 0.002xmr fee

Just a few relevant useful datapoints for potential expectations. Of course this would be based on what would have gotten you included in the last few blocks and projecting that into the future and we all know past performance isn't necessarily an indicator of future success but none the less it could get pretty close most of the time I think.

Does anyone know how feasible that is? If there are any particular challenges to implementing something like that?

Or maybe I'm just wondering why the client is currently so wildly off in its recommendation if transactions are really clearing for 75 cents next block?