[XMR] Monero Speculation

[explorer]

Bitcoin is more like aluminum than gold.  In order to transfer value it takes much longer and costs vastly more than any other crypto of comparable monetary function.

sooooo... xmr tx fee is cheaper than bitcoin now ?

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactionfees-btc-xmr.html#3m

 

EDIT :  
BTC av tx fee  3.4 usd  
xmr av tx fee  6.5 usd  

BTC transfers have been clearing next block for under 10 cents recently.  XMR about 75 cents.  I don't know who is paying more, but it is free choice for the most part.

It would be nice if the client could tell you the optimal fee to pay for a desired outcome based on recent data. Like:

1) 90% chance on next block 97% chance on second block 99% chance on third = 0.01xmr fee
2) 80% chance on next block 90% chance on second block 97% chance on third = 0.005xmr fee
3) 70% chance on next block 85% chance on second block 94% chance on third = 0.002xmr fee

Or maybe like this:

1) 1 block till >99% chance, <1% chance of never getting included = 0.01xmr fee
2) 3 blocks till 99% chance, 2 blocks till 80% chance, 1 blocks till 50% chance, <1% chance of never getting included = 0.005xmr fee
3) 8 blocks till 99% chance, 4 blocks till 80% chance, 2 blocks till 50% chance, 5% chance of never getting included = 0.002xmr fee

Just a few relevant useful datapoints for potential expectations. Of course this would be based on what would have gotten you included in the last few blocks and projecting that into the future and we all know past performance isn't necessarily an indicator of future success but none the less it could get pretty close most of the time I think.

Does anyone know how feasible that is? If there are any particular challenges to implementing something like that?

Or maybe I'm just wondering why the client is currently so wildly off in its recommendation if transactions are really clearing for 75 cents next block?

I don't know.  I just always select the lowest priority, and it always gets the next block for 0.003 fee.  If I'm concerned about it, I pay more, or check to see if there is a backlog first.  I think this will be made default on the next release.

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[Shnikes101]

Criminally undervalued, Can't wait for ledger integration too.
Literally the only technology in the world that can successfully accomplish the function it's claiming

I have a new unwrapped ledger waiting for it, too.

Ditto. The community hardware wallet looks interesting as well.

[infofront]

Criminally undervalued, Can't wait for ledger integration too.
Literally the only technology in the world that can successfully accomplish the function it's claiming

I have a new unwrapped ledger waiting for it, too.

Same. I have a few other altcoins I could throw on there, but I don't plan on holding them long enough to make it worthwhile.

[explorer]

Criminally undervalued, Can't wait for ledger integration too.
Literally the only technology in the world that can successfully accomplish the function it's claiming

I have a new unwrapped ledger waiting for it, too.

Same. I have a few other altcoins I could throw on there, but I don't plan on holding them long enough to make it worthwhile.

Me too, got some still in plastic   
It must be really difficult to do, because it's been imminent for months.  On the plus side, if they bail like Trezor did, the price has gone up so I can sell them again easily to bitcoin people.

[fromholland]

Only when btc stays around a certain level for a while, that's when the alts seem to rally.

Interesting observation. Altcoins do well against bitcoin when bitcoin trades sideways but tend to stick with it on the upside and downside. I need to look at some historical data to see how true this is. Interested if other people think they have observed this.

that's what I've noticed, but I've only been in crypto for half a year.. So interested what others think!

[kurious]

It remains to be seen whether a settlements network can be salvaged from the ashes of the house Satoshi built and the core team burned down.  I would not invest in bitcoin now, simply because it is not useful now, and I have no confidence in the salvage crew.

A blind, arthritic and demented standard bearer does not seem like a good thing to me. Lack of utility, if it persists, will surely bleed its value inexorably down. I hope I am proven wrong because the wake of a sinking titan can capsize numerous lesser vessels. Even a sound one will be tossed brutally in those swells.

I know Bitcoin has been slipping in your estimations, and I agree in many ways it has lost its way.  Maybe it's wishful thinking on my part that it recovers its credibility, and remains as the market driver in CC, because if it sinks - rather than is gradually surpassed - I think a crypto as a whole is in for a very long and painful time before it finally sorts itself out.

Not only does it have a use case, but it is actually fit for purpose.  At least one of ten ICOs has a plausible, or even a legitimate and viable use case and hence a niche. But far fewer are actually fit for that use, and all have much narrower niches than monero, save perhaps transparent liquidity and possibly even contracts.  What is the likely successor to BTC for liquidity?  Well, LTC transfers per unit of market cap are vastly higher than BitcoinCash, so it is looking remarkably and surprisingly useful, in addition to it's tenure.

I don't think ETH is a robust contracts platform.  All the larceny is sufficient to discredit ETH.  Usability is still at the squat toilet level.  But...It could be a long while before a 10x better platform emerges - and that is usually what it takes to displace an incumbent, a 10x ROI.

I didn't say I thought ETH was any good, just that smart contracts will have a use.   I agree it is a mess and it will be surpassed.

As for LTC, maybe it's simply just the faster block rate that makes it slicker.  However, can it take over BTC when it is so similar and likely to have the same issues when under the same scrutiny and pressures?  I doubt it - but I note your thoughts.  As always your posts set me looking at things from a different angle.

[kurious]

Only when btc stays around a certain level for a while, that's when the alts seem to rally.

Interesting observation. Altcoins do well against bitcoin when bitcoin trades sideways but tend to stick with it on the upside and downside. I need to look at some historical data to see how true this is. Interested if other people think they have observed this.

that's what I've noticed, but I've only been in crypto for half a year.. So interested what others think!

I think the problem is that Monero (as with other coins) can flip from tracking BTC to an inverse tracking of it according to mood.

I have seen Monero actually increase in value in BTC/XMR at the same time as Bitcoin rises against USD.  This happened often from November 2016 through to late summer 2017.

At other times  it seems to track the opposite way - effectively acting as a hedge - which it has done for long periods in the past, too.  In terms of USD overall - BTC going down means XMR does too (in USD value), but it's not as simple as that.

I welcome further thoughts on this, but I have tried to work it out and I am not sure firm and predictable rules really exist - especially as Monero has use cases and demand for it that Bitcoin does not.

[Globb0]

2019 is the year. Emissions falls silly low.

I expect explosions

Like 1000 USD or higher? I still think 1000 is possible in 2018

I bought monero because I liked monero. Unfortunately it refuses to do anything other than follow bitcoin around everywhere it goes like some sort of lost puppy. It's stupid and annoying but it is what it is. So anyway, the point being, it looks like its going to depend a lot on what bitcoin does. It might outperform bitcoin. We can hope it does of course. There are good reasons to expect that it will. But it doesn't look like its going to climb in value unless bitcoin does also. So you want to figure out how well monero is going to do in 2018? First figure out what you think bitcoin is going to do.

I almost wish bitcoin would die, even though the price of everything in the sector would crash, just so that everything could break free and we could have a dynamic and competitive market with internal relative price discovery. You know, so that the good projects  could actually be separated from the bad. So that the crypto sector could improve based on bad projects dying and good ones absorbing their capital. Instead we have an entire sector that moves togather in one direction or the other irrespective of whether the individual projects are actually garbage.

Frustrating.

I understand what you’re saying, but dude... Monero followed Bitcoin around in 2015 at around .001-.0015 for a while too... it’s not a permanent thing, just a temporary coincidence.

I communicated poorly. It's not really that that I hate. It's that shitcoins get boosted up when bitcoin goes up and quality projects go down when bitcoin goes down. Bitcoin going up shouldn't make your worthless garbage product more valuable. It's completely unrelated. It should be completely unrelated anyway. I feel like peoples obsession with bitcoin is subsidizing garbage. They treat the entire sector like its one homogeneous blob and not tons of very different projects that should be evaluated individually on their individual merits. If people would evaluate each project individually it would reward the better ones more and punish the bad ones more and the whole sector would improve more and faster. It would be healthy for the sector. I hope that makes more sense.

You know how people like to talk about zombie banks and zombie corporations. People treating this sector like one homogeneous blob is creating zombie currencies.

Goes back to my earlier point. I think people mentaly baseline at entry point against BTC.

It remains to be seen whether a settlements network can be salvaged from the ashes of the house Satoshi built and the core team burned down.  I would not invest in bitcoin now, simply because it is not useful now, and I have no confidence in the salvage crew.

A blind, arthritic and demented standard bearer does not seem like a good thing to me. Lack of utility, if it persists, will surely bleed its value inexorably down. I hope I am proven wrong because the wake of a sinking titan can capsize numerous lesser vessels. Even a sound one will be tossed brutally in those swells.

I know Bitcoin has been slipping in your estimations, and I agree in many ways it has lost its way.  Maybe it's wishful thinking on my part that it recovers its credibility, and remains as the market driver in CC, because if it sinks - rather than is gradually surpassed - I think a crypto as a whole is in for a very long and painful time before it finally sorts itself out.

God help us with all the silly bitcoins. If BTC goes down the who space will be made a mockery of

[Bitcoinaire]

FWIW, I was listening to a Trace Mayer interview and he stated that several Fortune 50 companies have used bitcoin for years doing cross border payments in order to increase their tax efficiency.

23 min mark:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OuZMheO_dik

[Quicken]

Monero in the news again. Seems to be increasingly chosen over Bitcoin for this kind of thing.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-43025788
"Hackers hijack government websites to mine crypto-cash"

Security researcher Scott Helme said more than 4,000 websites, including many government ones, were affected.

The cryptocurrency involved was Monero - a rival to Bitcoin that is designed to make transactions in it "untraceable" back to the senders and recipients involved.

The plug-in had been tampered with to add a program, Coinhive, which "mines" for Monero by running processor-intensive calculations on visitors' computers.

Once the plug-in was infected, it affected thousands of other websites in addition to the ICO's, which used it.

Q

[Hueristic]

Criminally undervalued, Can't wait for ledger integration too.
Literally the only technology in the world that can successfully accomplish the function it's claiming

I have a new unwrapped ledger waiting for it, too.

Same. I have a few other altcoins I could throw on there, but I don't plan on holding them long enough to make it worthwhile.

Me too, got some still in plastic   
It must be really difficult to do, because it's been imminent for months.  On the plus side, if they bail like Trezor did, the price has gone up so I can sell them again easily to bitcoin people.

Nice bonus! this may be the only space where the electronics appreciate in value!

Only when btc stays around a certain level for a while, that's when the alts seem to rally.

Interesting observation. Altcoins do well against bitcoin when bitcoin trades sideways but tend to stick with it on the upside and downside. I need to look at some historical data to see how true this is. Interested if other people think they have observed this.

that's what I've noticed, but I've only been in crypto for half a year.. So interested what others think!

I'm not sure but I think this is common after a correction.

[dEBRUYNE]

Announcement - Proof-of-Work tweak and a note on key reuse

https://getmonero.org/2018/02/11/PoW-change-and-key-reuse.html

[explorer]

Criminally undervalued, Can't wait for ledger integration too.
Literally the only technology in the world that can successfully accomplish the function it's claiming

I have a new unwrapped ledger waiting for it, too.

Same. I have a few other altcoins I could throw on there, but I don't plan on holding them long enough to make it worthwhile.

Me too, got some still in plastic   
It must be really difficult to do, because it's been imminent for months.  On the plus side, if they bail like Trezor did, the price has gone up so I can sell them again easily to bitcoin people.

Nice bonus! this may be the only space where the electronics appreciate in value!

I'd rather be able to use as intended when I bought them in December 

[martushka27]

I today bought Monero for long-term storage. I am very happy about this. It seems to me that this is a great coin that will develop and become more popular.

[heidikim]

Due to the privacy feature of Monero, it can be the reason why many people prefer it. I think the prices have gone down to the appropriate levels for purchase. However, investment advice is not on the way.

[alaskabm]

Maybe crypto is like PMs where gold is still king after thousands of years.

Bitcoin is more like aluminum than gold.  In order to transfer value it takes much longer and costs vastly more than any other crypto of comparable monetary function.

It remains to be seen whether a settlements network can be salvaged from the ashes of the house Satoshi built and the core team burned down.  I would not invest in bitcoin now, simply because it is not useful now, and I have no confidence in the salvage crew.

Bitcoin should and I hope, will survive.  Its robustness (anti-fragility) is legend and so it is and will be for some time the standard bearer for all crypto.  

A blind, arthritic and demented standard bearer does not seem like a good thing to me. Lack of utility, if it persists, will surely bleed its value inexorably down. I hope I am proven wrong because the wake of a sinking titan can capsize numerous lesser vessels. Even a sound one will be tossed brutally in those swells.

Monero has a lead for being perceived as honest and unflashy.  And it has a use-case.   As long as the use case is required it will be hard for other coins to take over its place.  Optional privacy may be added to other coins, but Monero's privacy by default is the only way, so it has a good chance of being one of the 'few' to make it.

Not only does it have a use case, but it is actually fit for purpose.  At least one of ten ICOs has a plausible, or even a legitimate and viable use case and hence a niche. But far fewer are actually fit for that use, and all have much narrower niches than monero, save perhaps transparent liquidity and possibly even contracts.  What is the likely successor to BTC for liquidity?  Well, LTC transfers per unit of market cap are vastly higher than BitcoinCash, so it is looking remarkably and surprisingly useful, in addition to it's tenure.

I don't think ETH is a robust contracts platform.  All the larceny is sufficient to discredit ETH.  Usability is still at the squat toilet level.  But...It could be a long while before a 10x better platform emerges - and that is usually what it takes to displace an incumbent, a 10x ROI.

Shouldn't LN make BTC liquid?

[iCEBREAKER]

Maybe crypto is like PMs where gold is still king after thousands of years.

Bitcoin is more like aluminum than gold.  In order to transfer value it takes much longer and costs vastly more than any other crypto of comparable monetary function.

It remains to be seen whether a settlements network can be salvaged from the ashes of the house Satoshi built and the core team burned down.  I would not invest in bitcoin now, simply because it is not useful now, and I have no confidence in the salvage crew.

Bitcoin should and I hope, will survive.  Its robustness (anti-fragility) is legend and so it is and will be for some time the standard bearer for all crypto.  

A blind, arthritic and demented standard bearer does not seem like a good thing to me. Lack of utility, if it persists, will surely bleed its value inexorably down. I hope I am proven wrong because the wake of a sinking titan can capsize numerous lesser vessels. Even a sound one will be tossed brutally in those swells.

Let's remind our lurkers exactly how much credibility you have in the Immanent Death Of Bitcoin Prediction Department by quoting (in the context of my own) some earlier prognostications of yours.

"Personally, I think s2x will be the longest chain, because BTC hash rate will be inadequate to keep up."

BTC hash rate responds to economics.  Within the incentive structure designed by Satoshi, as tx fees pile up and compete "inadequate" hash rate is a self-correcting problem.

Users will use the chain with lower fees, where you can actually get a confirm before your beard turns white.  Core will suffer a massive difficulty bomb, and if 80% of the hash is on s2x, it will take 4x longer to get a confirm.  Also, there will be more xns in an s2x block, so miners are incentivized by the total fees, even when fees are only ~50% of the fees on core.

Bitcoin is working better than ever, according to the numbers published at https://dedi.jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#all.

BTC fees are at or near zero; getting a confirmation is fast and easy (just as Core and I predicted would happen once segwit and tx batching gained sufficient adoption).

None of your panicky, breathless, baseless FUD about "muh massive difficulty bomb" and whatnot came to pass.  Nobody except Jihan and Roger's r/btc shills even care about Bcash and the other attack forks these days.  Such virtue signaling anti-Core outgroup castigation has proven irrelevant, just like your melodramatic maudlin pouting and weeping about "whether a settlements network can be salvaged from the ashes of the house Satoshi built and the core team burned down."  Do you really think Honey Badger gives a damn about that kind of hand-wringing fretfulness? 

If s2x had actually activated, its network would have instantly imploded due to a critical bug left unmitigated due to poor testing.  But there never was even a single s2x block, so your "longest chain" prediction managed to fail on an impressively multi-ordinal (theoretical+empirical) basis of compounded self-propagating errors. 

You are correct on one point though...."A blind, arthritic and demented standard bearer does not seem like a good thing to me."

That's precisely why you are hereby demoted from 'Sage of the Monero Speculation Thread' all the way down to 'Bitter Bigblocker BTFO By Blockstream.'

[megadeth]

Maybe crypto is like PMs where gold is still king after thousands of years.

Bitcoin is more like aluminum than gold.  In order to transfer value it takes much longer and costs vastly more than any other crypto of comparable monetary function.

It remains to be seen whether a settlements network can be salvaged from the ashes of the house Satoshi built and the core team burned down.  I would not invest in bitcoin now, simply because it is not useful now, and I have no confidence in the salvage crew.

Bitcoin should and I hope, will survive.  Its robustness (anti-fragility) is legend and so it is and will be for some time the standard bearer for all crypto.  

A blind, arthritic and demented standard bearer does not seem like a good thing to me. Lack of utility, if it persists, will surely bleed its value inexorably down. I hope I am proven wrong because the wake of a sinking titan can capsize numerous lesser vessels. Even a sound one will be tossed brutally in those swells.

Let's remind our lurkers exactly how much credibility you have in the Immanent Death Of Bitcoin Prediction Department by quoting (in the context of my own) some earlier prognostications of yours.

"Personally, I think s2x will be the longest chain, because BTC hash rate will be inadequate to keep up."

BTC hash rate responds to economics.  Within the incentive structure designed by Satoshi, as tx fees pile up and compete "inadequate" hash rate is a self-correcting problem.

Users will use the chain with lower fees, where you can actually get a confirm before your beard turns white.  Core will suffer a massive difficulty bomb, and if 80% of the hash is on s2x, it will take 4x longer to get a confirm.  Also, there will be more xns in an s2x block, so miners are incentivized by the total fees, even when fees are only ~50% of the fees on core.

Bitcoin is working better than ever, according to the numbers published at https://dedi.jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#all.

BTC fees are at or near zero; getting a confirmation is fast and easy (just as Core and I predicted would happen once segwit and tx batching gained sufficient adoption).

None of your panicky, breathless, baseless FUD about "muh massive difficulty bomb" and whatnot came to pass.  Nobody except Jihan and Roger's r/btc shills even care about Bcash and the other attack forks these days.  Such virtue signaling anti-Core outgroup castigation has proven irrelevant, just like your melodramatic maudlin pouting and weeping about "whether a settlements network can be salvaged from the ashes of the house Satoshi built and the core team burned down."  Do you really think Honey Badger gives a damn about that kind of hand-wringing fretfulness? 

If s2x had actually activated, its network would have instantly imploded due to a critical bug left unmitigated due to poor testing.  But there never was even a single s2x block, so your "longest chain" prediction managed to fail on an impressively multi-ordinal (theoretical+empirical) basis of compounded self-propagating errors. 

You are correct on one point though...."A blind, arthritic and demented standard bearer does not seem like a good thing to me."

That's precisely why you are hereby demoted from 'Sage of the Monero Speculation Thread' all the way down to 'Bitter Bigblocker BTFO By Blockstream.'

Amino you should apologize for attacking BTC to promote Monero. Monero must stand on its own merits. I say this as one of its biggest bulls.

[cAPSLOCK]

As much as I disagree with the big blocker philosophy... Aminorex has NOTHING to apologize for to anyone.  That is some of the most ridiculous shit posted here.  On the contrary, I am ashamed this thread has turned all Aspergers on him for stating his opinion.

Calm the hell down, IMHO.

[iCEBREAKER]

As much as I disagree with the big blocker philosophy... Aminorex has NOTHING to apologize for to anyone.  That is some of the most ridiculous shit posted here.  On the contrary, I am ashamed this thread has turned all Aspergers on him for stating his opinion.

Calm the hell down, IMHO.

I am the calm one here.  You can tell because I'm referring to objective numbers provided by a 3rd party and because I'm not spewing Chicken Little gloom-and-doom FUD about how Bitcoin is going to die (and/or is already dead).

Aminorex's opinions predictions about s2x's fate and The Evil Blockstream Core Conspiracy were/are flat-out wrong.  He needs to be called out for and own those mistakes.  You don't need to leap into the fray in a chivalrous attempt to white knight for him.  He's a big boy and fully capable of engaging me without you trying to set the acceptable parameters of our discourse.