[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Anon136]

this famous diagram:

My contention has always been that an important albeit secondary feedback, from increased hashing power to increased hoarding, is omitted from this diagram.

Who here, when deciding whether or not to hodl, has checked the current hash rate to help aid them in that decision? I'm not saying it doesn't happen. Just that if it does I wasn't aware of it. So that is why I am asking.

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[smooth]

this famous diagram:

My contention has always been that an important albeit secondary feedback, from increased hashing power to increased hoarding, is omitted from this diagram.

Probably true although the arc should perhaps emanate from security or legitimacy (both downstream of hash rate) rather than hash rate itself. Hash rate in and if itself isn't valuable, only what it accomplishes.

Also, the paper I linked doesn't attempt to model purely speculative value, although speculation based on a future value of the network is considered. As such the paper follows the structure of the diagram as-is, somewhat (increased hoarding would occur due to increased expected adoption). "Expected" not being mentioned in the diagram is perhaps a flaw.

[spirali]

I can't help but wonder if this might be one of the large ASIC minors selling there warchest.

Very interesting cAPSLOCK. Did you dig a little further up to January for example (when ASICs supposedly started mining XMR)? Also, interesting dates are:

- around February 11th because Monero devs declare war on ASICs: https://getmonero.org/2018/02/11/PoW-change-and-key-reuse.html

- around March 11th because the first cryptonight ASIC becomes public: https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/83pies/baikal_claims_to_have_a_cryptonight_asic/

If I were secretly mining using ASICs since January, these two news would have frightened me so I guess I would have sold something...

[aminorex]

To clarify, I contend that when increased competition for block rewards raises the amortized cost of a mined coin above what allows a competitive margin, the miner is incentivized to hold until prices rise, thus constraining supply in s subtle but persistent manner.  Most hash power will follow the margin to another coin, but hash power always remains, and the desire not to take a loss will mean that coins mined above market will be withheld from the market until prices rise. The higher that support level of persistent hashing rises, the more supply is constrained.

The causality seems clear to me, but has been a source of controversy whenever I have suggested it.

[smooth]

the desire not to take a loss

Okay that requires modeling loss aversion which is considered 'irrational' and usually excluded from most (non-behavioral) economics, including this paper. Though of course not being rational doesn't make it any less real.

Probably one would want to include the degree of loss aversion in the model, for example, different classes of miners probably differ, but I won't pretend to suggest how.

In this paper increasing hash rate causes higher coin value/price due to greater perceived (and I suppose actual) security. I guess that is a similar result though via a different mechanism.

[Hueristic]

I can't help but wonder if this might be one of the large ASIC minors selling there warchest.

i WOULD ARGUE THAT bITMAIN HAS BEEN IN THIS GAME LONG ENOUGH TO (WELL SHIT CAPSLOCK AGAIN | IRONIC) know exactly how to sell without hurting the market and therefore their future earnings so I would doubt that they would dump. They create these for a living and sell the coins continuously I'm sure so I doubt they would dump out of spite and the fact that the market is absorbing these dumps just shows a lack of finesse, it looks more like a pissed little kid. My guess goes to Reptilla.

[hirozaki faraday]

I have been analyzing the Monero chart and according to analysis, XMR has remained at $163 for the last hour, the triangular support line. The current price is above the support line and can rise to the $ 175 resistance line. Also, since the 100 SMA trend is lower than the 200 SMA trend, the support line is likely to collapse and the price is likely to be between $ 163 and $ 200. I expect a breakout from here.

[cAPSLOCK]

I can't help but wonder if this might be one of the large ASIC minors selling there warchest.

i WOULD ARGUE THAT bITMAIN HAS BEEN IN THIS GAME LONG ENOUGH TO (WELL SHIT CAPSLOCK AGAIN | IRONIC) know exactly how to sell without hurting the market and therefore their future earnings so I would doubt that they would dump. They create these for a living and sell the coins continuously I'm sure so I doubt they would dump out of spite and the fact that the market is absorbing these dumps just shows a lack of finesse, it looks more like a pissed little kid. My guess goes to Reptilla.

It just seems to me that these dumps have a very algorithmic quality and seem to be thought out.  Kinda strange.

Now I suppose if Bitmain has a large warchest it would be fairly Not in their self interest to crash the price.  Then again... there is evidence that company has done things in the past to harm the chain they mined.

I do wonder at times what has become of the Silver King...

[Hueristic]

...Then again... there is evidence that company has done things in the past to harm the chain they mined.

I do wonder at times what has become of the Silver King...

This I don't doubt, do you have any links? AFA the other, Idunno.

[Globb0]

Reptilla.

I feel like he is long gone at the moment.

Shame for the guy. But I feel a lesson in that.



Even when you've made it, you haven't made it yet.

[mambamanagement]

Reptilla.

I feel like he is long gone at the moment.

Shame for the guy. But I feel a lesson in that.



Even when you've made it, you haven't made it yet.

what ever happened with that guy?

[Quackadoodle]

I think when word of this gets out its going to be a game changer! Bullish.....!

http://www.latlmes.com/business/coinbase-to-support-monero-exclusive-interview-with-insider-confirms-rumours-1

[jwinterm]

I think when word of this gets out its going to be a game changer! Bullish.....!

http://www.latlmes.com/business/coinbase-to-support-monero-exclusive-interview-with-insider-confirms-rumours-1

Lol LA TLMES

[pa]

Interesting paper on Bitcoin economics. Since Monero follows a nearly-identical PoW structure the paper can be applied to Monero as well.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3142022

The paper attempts to analyze and even in some cases quantify some of the structure incorporated into this famous diagram:

The authors are doing an AMA right now: https://amp.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/8c05vr/hi_rbitcoin_im_emiliano_pagnotta_assistant/

[Sipizter]

Reptilla.

I feel like he is long gone at the moment.

Shame for the guy. But I feel a lesson in that.



Even when you've made it, you haven't made it yet.

what ever happened with that guy?

Based on his Facebook update from January he is living in some kind of commune in Estonia.

[Anon136]

Reptilla.

I feel like he is long gone at the moment.

Shame for the guy. But I feel a lesson in that.



Even when you've made it, you haven't made it yet.

what ever happened with that guy?

Based on his Facebook update from January he is living in some kind of commune in Estonia.

A commune where you dont communicate with the outside world anymore after you enter I think is called a cult.

He must really feel bad about his ponzi scheme. That's the thing about ponzi schemes. The people who create them usually often never intended to.

[dewdeded]

Vendor adoption rate is going pretty strong on the darkmarkets. Most serious vendors now accept Monero. That's great.
From my POV, this a major milestone. Because a number of our community members who have been focused on research and development in this space for nearly a decade began to doubt that would ever be possible.

[Whether you like Darknet trading or not.] This acceptance give's our project real world usage, hands-on operation experience in a critical environment, exposure (by media and researchers) and feedback from regular users.
This can be base, a solid starting point (which 99% of all boot strapped projects never reach) to expand the Monero ecosystem above the cryptocurrency-scene into the real world, in order to create an independent, healthy and durable Monero economy.

The XMR tech works, the community is strong, trustworthiness is established, now grey market usage illustrates that a growing number of independent people trading online recognize Monero as a (valuable) currency.
-> The demand for a token with Monero characteristics is real.


If we keep Monero fair and dezentralized, Monero will be the project & technology that finally allowed the creation of a completely anonymous egalitarian cryptocurrency, which empowers end-users with true privacy, both financial and personal.

[Hueristic]

Grabbed a little moah this week just now. Back to double digits again baby!

[Hueristic]

ETN will have a greater market cap than monero in time.

You better hope so or you'll have to get some JOB.

[Nathan047]

I think when word of this gets out its going to be a game changer! Bullish.....!

http://www.latlmes.com/business/coinbase-to-support-monero-exclusive-interview-with-insider-confirms-rumours-1

So it's been confirmed then (not on a connection able to stream a YouTube video)?