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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3118263 times)
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cAPSLOCK
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April 15, 2018, 11:33:41 PM
 #38101

I can't help but wonder if this might be one of the large ASIC minors selling there warchest.

i WOULD ARGUE THAT bITMAIN HAS BEEN IN THIS GAME LONG ENOUGH TO (WELL SHIT CAPSLOCK AGAIN | IRONIC) know exactly how to sell without hurting the market and therefore their future earnings so I would doubt that they would dump. They create these for a living and sell the coins continuously I'm sure so I doubt they would dump out of spite and the fact that the market is absorbing these dumps just shows a lack of finesse, it looks more like a pissed little kid. My guess goes to Reptilla.

It just seems to me that these dumps have a very algorithmic quality and seem to be thought out.  Kinda strange.

Now I suppose if Bitmain has a large warchest it would be fairly Not in their self interest to crash the price.  Then again... there is evidence that company has done things in the past to harm the chain they mined.

I do wonder at times what has become of the Silver King...
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April 16, 2018, 01:32:11 AM
 #38102

...Then again... there is evidence that company has done things in the past to harm the chain they mined.

I do wonder at times what has become of the Silver King...

This I don't doubt, do you have any links? AFA the other, Idunno.

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Globb0
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April 16, 2018, 11:04:57 AM
 #38103

Reptilla.

I feel like he is long gone at the moment.

Shame for the guy. But I feel a lesson in that.



Even when you've made it, you haven't made it yet.


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April 16, 2018, 11:20:42 AM
 #38104

Reptilla.

I feel like he is long gone at the moment.

Shame for the guy. But I feel a lesson in that.



Even when you've made it, you haven't made it yet.



what ever happened with that guy?
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April 16, 2018, 12:40:29 PM
 #38105

I think when word of this gets out its going to be a game changer! Bullish.....!

http://www.latlmes.com/business/coinbase-to-support-monero-exclusive-interview-with-insider-confirms-rumours-1
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April 16, 2018, 12:43:40 PM
 #38106

I think when word of this gets out its going to be a game changer! Bullish.....!

http://www.latlmes.com/business/coinbase-to-support-monero-exclusive-interview-with-insider-confirms-rumours-1

Lol LA TLMES
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April 16, 2018, 01:14:18 PM
 #38107

Interesting paper on Bitcoin economics. Since Monero follows a nearly-identical PoW structure the paper can be applied to Monero as well.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3142022

The paper attempts to analyze and even in some cases quantify some of the structure incorporated into this famous diagram:



The authors are doing an AMA right now: https://amp.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/8c05vr/hi_rbitcoin_im_emiliano_pagnotta_assistant/
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April 16, 2018, 01:40:46 PM
 #38108

Reptilla.

I feel like he is long gone at the moment.

Shame for the guy. But I feel a lesson in that.



Even when you've made it, you haven't made it yet.



what ever happened with that guy?

Based on his Facebook update from January he is living in some kind of commune in Estonia.
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April 16, 2018, 02:10:15 PM
 #38109

Reptilla.

I feel like he is long gone at the moment.

Shame for the guy. But I feel a lesson in that.



Even when you've made it, you haven't made it yet.



what ever happened with that guy?

Based on his Facebook update from January he is living in some kind of commune in Estonia.

A commune where you dont communicate with the outside world anymore after you enter I think is called a cult.

He must really feel bad about his ponzi scheme. That's the thing about ponzi schemes. The people who create them usually often never intended to.

Rep Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=381041
If one can not confer upon another a right which he does not himself first possess, by what means does the state derive the right to engage in behaviors from which the public is prohibited?
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April 16, 2018, 02:43:38 PM
Merited by explorer (1), Shnikes101 (1)
 #38110

Vendor adoption rate is going pretty strong on the darkmarkets. Most serious vendors now accept Monero. That's great.
From my POV, this a major milestone. Because a number of our community members who have been focused on research and development in this space for nearly a decade began to doubt that would ever be possible.

[Whether you like Darknet trading or not.] This acceptance give's our project real world usage, hands-on operation experience in a critical environment, exposure (by media and researchers) and feedback from regular users.
This can be base, a solid starting point (which 99% of all boot strapped projects never reach) to expand the Monero ecosystem above the cryptocurrency-scene into the real world, in order to create an independent, healthy and durable Monero economy.

The XMR tech works, the community is strong, trustworthiness is established, now grey market usage illustrates that a growing number of independent people trading online recognize Monero as a (valuable) currency.
-> The demand for a token with Monero characteristics is real.


If we keep Monero fair and dezentralized, Monero will be the project & technology that finally allowed the creation of a completely anonymous egalitarian cryptocurrency, which empowers end-users with true privacy, both financial and personal.
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April 16, 2018, 03:27:32 PM
 #38111

Grabbed a little moah this week just now. Back to double digits again baby! Cheesy

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April 16, 2018, 06:10:44 PM
 #38112

ETN will have a greater market cap than monero in time.

You better hope so or you'll have to get some JOB.

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April 16, 2018, 07:05:17 PM
 #38113

I think when word of this gets out its going to be a game changer! Bullish.....!

http://www.latlmes.com/business/coinbase-to-support-monero-exclusive-interview-with-insider-confirms-rumours-1

So it's been confirmed then (not on a connection able to stream a YouTube video)?

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April 16, 2018, 07:20:20 PM
 #38114

I think when word of this gets out its going to be a game changer! Bullish.....!

http://www.latlmes.com/business/coinbase-to-support-monero-exclusive-interview-with-insider-confirms-rumours-1

So it's been confirmed then (not on a connection able to stream a YouTube video)?

The url is wrong "latlmes", it's like rick roll or something, don't bother.

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April 16, 2018, 10:13:37 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1)
 #38115


Useful link to a non-technical summary of the paper: https://imperialcollegelondon.app.box.com/s/u1qark0r6cvdvzj4vp5s3xyfo9tkpjt8

Interesting comment relevant to ASICs in Monero:

[Emiliano Pagnotta] To add to AB’s comment, let me elaborate on your conjecture. If a particular entrepreneur created a superior ASIC machine, the effect on the bitcoin valuation could be ambiguous.

... (read more at link above)
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April 16, 2018, 11:34:20 PM
 #38116


Useful link to a non-technical summary of the paper: https://imperialcollegelondon.app.box.com/s/u1qark0r6cvdvzj4vp5s3xyfo9tkpjt8

Interesting comment relevant to ASICs in Monero:

[Emiliano Pagnotta] To add to AB’s comment, let me elaborate on your conjecture. If a particular entrepreneur created a superior ASIC machine, the effect on the bitcoin valuation could be ambiguous.

... (read more at link above)


Thanks smooth, I like the fact they put out a layman's copy.

That paper got way out my league to comprehend pretty fast and what I did digest didn't seem to come to any conclusion that is not already obvious.
So what point is it trying to make that we don't already know?


I think something is wrong with Polo I just checked my buy trade analysis and got an exact even number! Whats the chance of that?!?!

Code:
Average Buy Price: 0.00416829 BTC             Break Even Price: 0.00416829 BTC

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April 17, 2018, 12:05:36 AM
Merited by Hueristic (3), NeuroticFish (1), bitebits (1)
 #38117


Useful link to a non-technical summary of the paper: https://imperialcollegelondon.app.box.com/s/u1qark0r6cvdvzj4vp5s3xyfo9tkpjt8

Interesting comment relevant to ASICs in Monero:

[Emiliano Pagnotta] To add to AB’s comment, let me elaborate on your conjecture. If a particular entrepreneur created a superior ASIC machine, the effect on the bitcoin valuation could be ambiguous.

... (read more at link above)


Thanks smooth, I like the fact they put out a layman's copy.

That paper got way out my league to comprehend pretty fast and what I did digest didn't seem to come to any conclusion that is not already obvious.
So what point is it trying to make that we don't already know?

There are some interesting perhaps non-intuitive conclusions. They mention some of them in the non-technical summary or AMA:

1. An increase in the cost of mining implies a reduction in the coin value. Some have claimed that mining cost or energy cost backs the value of a coin given its cost of creation (or similarly, the claim that botnets reduce the coin value since their cost of mining is lower), but this appears not only wrong, but backwards.

2. ASICs increase hash rate security (and therefore coin value) but may reduce it due to reduced miner decentralization, so the effect is ambiguous (and depends on the relevant, and generally unknown, constant factors). Of course, the Monero community is aware of the second consideration, given the recent decision to fork out ASICs, but the ambiguity may be under appreciated. Personally I find it quite troubling and would prefer a way to win on both sides rather than grapple with a potentially intractable tradeoff.

3. There are multiple equilibria in any coin, one being the coin price at zero (so no mining rewards, no security, no value., etc.) This may be obvious but we don't see it much. However, it appears to reinforce the notion that a coin can completely fail.

4. Non-linearity can produce price and hash rate spirals. If someone spikes the price (say Roger Ver buying into Monero in 2016) and the hash rate follows, this can improve perceived security and perceived value to the point where the new value is self-sustaining. Perhaps this can occur by hash rate increases as well (even potentially due to ASICs or botnets joining the network). I guess this can happen in the other direction too (possibly leading to complete failure, i.e. #3?)

5. There is an optimal inflation rate that is not zero. Some amount of inflation subsidizes mining which increases the hash rate and then coin value so it is therefore self-supporting. This has been alternately stated many times in the past as avoiding the free rider problem where holders who do not transaction still benefit from mining security. It is actually quite obvious to most people who understand economics but remains highly controversial among Bitcoiners.

Reminder: As with most if not all of economics, this is only an idealized model, and doesn't necessarily accurately represent reality. Lessons may be learned from it, and they may be valuable, but they risk being wrong if the model is wrong.
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April 17, 2018, 12:55:19 AM
 #38118


There are some interesting perhaps non-intuitive conclusions. They mention some of them in the non-technical summary or AMA:

1. An increase in the cost of mining implies a reduction in the coin value. Some have claimed that mining cost or energy cost backs the value of a coin given its cost of creation (or similarly, the claim that botnets reduce the coin value since their cost of mining is lower), but this appears not only wrong, but backwards.

I never understood why people would not understand this intuitively, like anything else it's scarcity and desirability that creates the balance of a market all the cost can do is provide a baseline.

Quote
2. ASICs increase hash rate security (and therefore coin value) but may reduce it due to reduced miner decentralization, so the effect is ambiguous (and depends on the relevant, and generally unknown, constant factors). Of course, the Monero community is aware of the second consideration, given the recent decision to fork out ASICs, but the ambiguity may be under appreciated. Personally I find it quite troubling and would prefer a way to win on both sides rather than grapple with a potentially intractable tradeoff.

I don't think the bolded can ever be possible. And I venomously disagree with ASICs increasing a coins value I would say quite the opposite. Bitcoin is a one off aberration that it's descendants can never me modeled upon as it's creation, adoption and community are and were all unique. Trying to use it as a model is a fools errand and is oblique to anything that follows.


Quote
3. There are multiple equilibria in any coin, one being the coin price at zero (so no mining rewards, no security, no value., etc.) This may be obvious but we don't see it much. However, it appears to reinforce the notion that a coin can completely fail.

I think I would have to read what the hell they were referring to with this one, it looks like there is no context unless they mean "yeah they all start at zero as an idea". Yet even then Some Idea's are far more valuable than others, all whitepapers =/=.

Quote
4. Non-linearity can produce price and hash rate spirals. If someone spikes the price (say Roger Ver buying into Monero in 2016) and the hash rate follows, this can improve perceived security and perceived value to the point where the new value is self-sustaining. Perhaps this can occur by hash rate increases as well (even potentially due to ASICs or botnets joining the network). I guess this can happen in the other direction too (possibly leading to complete failure, i.e. #3?)

Sure, ETH is a fine example. This is a premise that certainly should not have to be supported by anything other than common sense.

Quote
5. There is an optimal inflation rate that is not zero. Some amount of inflation subsidizes mining which increases the hash rate and then coin value so it is therefore self-supporting. This has been alternately stated many times in the past as avoiding the free rider problem where holders who do not transaction still benefit from mining security. It is actually quite obvious to most people who understand economics but remains highly controversial among Bitcoiners.

True and is continuously debated not for it's merits but for personal gain. Change the distribution rate/ tail emission I'm not cashing in quick enough. Lol


Quote
Reminder: As with most if not all of economics, this is only an idealized model, and doesn't necessarily accurately represent reality. Lessons may be learned from it, and they may be valuable, but they risk being wrong if the model is wrong.

Standard disclaimer in gobbleeze.

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smooth
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April 17, 2018, 02:08:23 AM
 #38119

2. ASICs increase hash rate security (and therefore coin value) but may reduce it due to reduced miner decentralization, so the effect is ambiguous (and depends on the relevant, and generally unknown, constant factors). Of course, the Monero community is aware of the second consideration, given the recent decision to fork out ASICs, but the ambiguity may be under appreciated. Personally I find it quite troubling and would prefer a way to win on both sides rather than grapple with a potentially intractable tradeoff.

I don't think the bolded can ever be possible. And I venomously disagree with ASICs increasing a coins value I would say quite the opposite. Bitcoin is a one off aberration that it's descendants can never me modeled upon as it's creation, adoption and community are and were all unique. Trying to use it as a model is a fools errand and is oblique to anything that follows.

You may be right. What I would prefer and what may be possible aren't necessarily the same thing.

BTW, my views on this have nothing to do with Bitcoin and I don't even think Bitcoin is a very positive example when it coms to ASICs. For all we know Bitcoin's price could very well be much higher if the mining ecosystem were healthier.
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April 17, 2018, 05:44:35 AM
 #38120


Useful link to a non-technical summary of the paper: https://imperialcollegelondon.app.box.com/s/u1qark0r6cvdvzj4vp5s3xyfo9tkpjt8

Interesting comment relevant to ASICs in Monero:

[Emiliano Pagnotta] To add to AB’s comment, let me elaborate on your conjecture. If a particular entrepreneur created a superior ASIC machine, the effect on the bitcoin valuation could be ambiguous.

... (read more at link above)


Thanks smooth, I like the fact they put out a layman's copy.

That paper got way out my league to comprehend pretty fast and what I did digest didn't seem to come to any conclusion that is not already obvious.
So what point is it trying to make that we don't already know?


I think something is wrong with Polo I just checked my buy trade analysis and got an exact even number! Whats the chance of that?!?!

Code:
Average Buy Price: 0.00416829 BTC             Break Even Price: 0.00416829 BTC
How many trades did it take to break even?
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