[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Hueristic]

Too bad everyone has lost their Monero in boating accidents. 

Well I lost mine on the poker table a month before alphabay.

My timing in life to be on a cooler just cannot get worse, one day I'll walk away instead of marveling on how I can lose to another one outter.

Anyway, anybody have some long-ish term moonshot predictions? Let's say BTC hits $120K in May 2022. What price is XMR at?

I ran across this Satis report again, and it got me thinking:

I think the premise is faulty as people are just not that smart.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-07/2019-forecast-predictions-will-be-wrong-random-or-worse

https://zycrypto.com/taking-a-critical-look-at-the-satis-group-cryptocurrency-future-price-prediction-report/

[1579688601]

1579688601

[1579688601]

1579688601

[1579688601]

1579688601

[1579688601]

1579688601

[1579688601]

1579688601

[joroz]

I think the premise is faulty as people are just not that smart.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-07/2019-forecast-predictions-will-be-wrong-random-or-worse

https://zycrypto.com/taking-a-critical-look-at-the-satis-group-cryptocurrency-future-price-prediction-report/

That second rebuttal shows some deep analytical thinking.

[Millionero]

@joroz I can't tell if you're being serious or not.
You should put an emoticon like  if you're being sarcastic.

[freedomoptions.io]

Monero still the best privacy coin in the world hands down

[kurious]

Haven't popped in for a while but I will throw my hat in the ring, too - albeit a little late for the mad hatters tea party.

While Monero has held up in USD reasonably well - and stayed above the $60 mark having briefly dipped to sub-$40 six months ago, it may seem to have languished against BTC since things picked up. So far...

However, looking back, XMR always lagged behind BTC when things turned upwards.  See XMR/BTC lows in early '17, and of course massive highs in both BTC and USD in Spring 2018 sometime after BTC's last bull run had peaked.

So, while all alts are definitely out of season, Monero is about where it should be, with BTC's market dominance at such high levels.  Monero dropped to its recent USD ATL in mid-December within a couple of days of BTC reaching its absolute low to end the last bear market.  For me the low point is around now for XMR/BTC.

Why?  Well, while BTC is dominant and obviously looking up at last, anyone increasing their investment in crypto is tending to buy BTC - rather than speculating in a sluggish alt-market right now.

I expect - judging by historic patterns and some technicals - XMR/BTC will see a decent bounce against by summer between mid-July and Early Sept.  

I'm a long-term holder of XMR and, but for my boating accident, I'd be a substantial one.  XMR is not a 'here-today-gone-tomorrow' coin, it's an honest POW, no-premine coin with decent use cases as money, and is the dominant privacy coin.  Never out of the CMC top-20 since Monero debuted in it - despite the token shit that dominates the index - it has a great community, active development and an admired ethos.  

If you're speculating - then a medium term BTC to XMR and back if well-timed could increase your stash of BTC nicely, but for me it's always been something I advise everyone (even my family) to keep as a portion of a balanced portfolio.

So, enjoy the bargain season for XMR, I cannot see it lasting for long.

[kurious]

I’m here to watch the dramatic conclusion to fluffy’s eventual 2023 exit scam...

Crypto’s greatest ever unfolding saga!

Too bad everyone has lost their Monero in boating accidents.  


Anyway, anybody have some long-ish term moonshot predictions? Let's say BTC hits $120K in May 2022. What price is XMR at?

I ran across this Satis report again, and it got me thinking:

I tend to under-estimate.  It often works for me as I am rarely disappointed.  Although I have under-estimated bear markets too, to my great regret. 

Anyway, to answer your question:
Firstly - I reckon the next ATH in BTC will be a little earlier (autumn '21), but Monero's habit of lagging will mean spring 2022 may well see its peak, so I will take a guess.

From the end of the bear market to top of the next bullrun in BTC should be a minimum of 1600% which means a 50K USD - or higher - new ATH.

Let's say 50K - 100K.   Monero, post-peak has been as much as 3.5% of BTC, but more often around 2.5% at its peak during BTC bull runs.

So - May 2022 just after BTC ATH, let's pick a figure of 75K for BTC
XMR/BTC at 0.025 gives a figure of:  $1875

Note: I may not be here to see if I am right.  I could be fortifying my private island by then, and avoiding BTCT for opsec reasons.

[Hueristic]

Monero still the best privacy coin in the world hands down

Nothing else  compares to Monero's feature set, and security. I think mimblewimble would be considered the most fungable now but that tech is years away from real world use.

[Febo]

Monero still the best privacy coin in the world hands down

Nothing else  compares to Monero's feature set, and security. I think mimblewimble would be considered the most fungable now but that tech is years away from real world use.

I dont understand why. If it is stripped Monero with less opaque ledger how could be more fungible?  Grim should be less fungible but more scalable.  But you are right that only future can answer that. Monero managed to reduce transactions sizes so far and have more in plans. We have no ideas what future will bring.



BTW I found this on twitter: https://twitter.com/Trezor/status/1125429283697172482

[phishead]

Monero still the best privacy coin in the world hands down

Nothing else  compares to Monero's feature set, and security. I think mimblewimble would be considered the most fungable now but that tech is years away from real world use.

I dont understand why. If it is stripped Monero with less opaque ledger how could be more fungible?  Grim should be less fungible but more scalable.  But you are right that only future can answer that. Monero managed to reduce transactions sizes so far and have more in plans. We have no ideas what future will bring.



BTW I found this on twitter: https://twitter.com/Trezor/status/1125429283697172482

Isn’t Trezor’s integration with the GUI imminent™?

[Hueristic]

Monero still the best privacy coin in the world hands down

Nothing else  compares to Monero's feature set, and security. I think mimblewimble would be considered the most fungable now but that tech is years away from real world use.

I dont understand why. If it is stripped Monero with less opaque ledger how could be more fungible?  Grim should be less fungible but more scalable.  But you are right that only future can answer that. Monero managed to reduce transactions sizes so far and have more in plans. We have no ideas what future will bring.



BTW I found this on twitter: https://twitter.com/Trezor/status/1125429283697172482

From what I understand of mimblewimble is there are no records kept which yes will make for great fungability but how can you prove you made a transaction in the past?

Everything in life is a tradeoff and you need to choose by what balance you are willing to accept. If you want a fully transparent ledger then BTC is top dog for the job.

[Febo]

Monero still the best privacy coin in the world hands down

Nothing else  compares to Monero's feature set, and security. I think mimblewimble would be considered the most fungable now but that tech is years away from real world use.

I dont understand why. If it is stripped Monero with less opaque ledger how could be more fungible?  Grim should be less fungible but more scalable.  But you are right that only future can answer that. Monero managed to reduce transactions sizes so far and have more in plans. We have no ideas what future will bring.

From what I understand of mimblewimble is there are no records kept which yes will make for great fungability but how can you prove you made a transaction in the past?

Everything in life is a tradeoff and you need to choose by what balance you are willing to accept. If you want a fully transparent ledger then BTC is top dog for the job.

You have here nice reply on comparison from grincoin subreddit:  https://www.reddit.com/r/grincoin/comments/7nhtj4/what_makes_grin_better_than_its_competitors/?st=jgl8wkm2&sh=4ad423f6

In short, Grin is about stripping things away - stripping everything away - down to the bare bones of a private blockchain.

Basically, Monero has three privacy protocols. Ring signatures, stealth addresses, and ringCT. However, stealth addresses and CT are the only parts that are absolutely essential to privacy. Ring signatures are great for the paranoid, but they actually aren’t completely necessary. They’re wonderful, but they’re also redundant. Grin strips these away and leaves only stealth addresses and confidential transactions. An observer still can’t derive any useful information from a Grin transaction, and the fact that Grin allows transactions to aggregate, or merge together, makes it even harder to trace.

One of the issues with Monero is blockchain bloat. All this privacy leads to very large transaction sizes. So how do you deal with this? Some solutions like bulletproofs create smaller transactions, but even then you won’t be able to reduce the blockchain size by more than ten times - and it’ll still be bigger than a Bitcoin blockchain of equivalent complexity. This is bad for nodes, because eventually people will run out of space.

So Grin does something pretty darn cool. Let’s say A sends 10 Grin to B, and B later sends that 10 Grin to C. This will be recorded in the final blockchain as A—>C! B gets cut completely, because his ownership of the coins did not change the final state. Now of course nobody will know who A and C are, because of stealth addresses. This is great for cutting down blockchain size because intermediate transactions can be stripped away.

The last thing Grin strips away is something that literally every other cryptocurrency - even Monero - has. With Grin, the entire concept of addresses is eliminated. They just don’t exist. All transactions are created by direct wallet-to-wallet interaction!! Not only is this really cool, but it can be done over email, or any other method. The last great thing about killing addresses is that there is literally nothing to link you to. Even if you reuse the same wallet, there’s no need to create new addresses. Your privacy cannot even be violated by someone with whom you’ve transacted, because you have no address.


As I said before. Grins upwards are smaller transactions sizes, Monero upwards is more opaque ledger so more fungible coin.  Frangibility is Monero main Boss and will never get traded for smaller transactions. If we can get both we will grab them with both hands and legs.

[Hueristic]

Monero still the best privacy coin in the world hands down

Nothing else  compares to Monero's feature set, and security. I think mimblewimble would be considered the most fungable now but that tech is years away from real world use.

I dont understand why. If it is stripped Monero with less opaque ledger how could be more fungible?  Grim should be less fungible but more scalable.  But you are right that only future can answer that. Monero managed to reduce transactions sizes so far and have more in plans. We have no ideas what future will bring.

From what I understand of mimblewimble is there are no records kept which yes will make for great fungability but how can you prove you made a transaction in the past?

Everything in life is a tradeoff and you need to choose by what balance you are willing to accept. If you want a fully transparent ledger then BTC is top dog for the job.

You have here nice reply on comparison from grincoin subreddit:  https://www.reddit.com/r/grincoin/comments/7nhtj4/what_makes_grin_better_than_its_competitors/?st=jgl8wkm2&sh=4ad423f6

In short, Grin is about stripping things away - stripping everything away - down to the bare bones of a private blockchain.

Basically, Monero has three privacy protocols. Ring signatures, stealth addresses, and ringCT. However, stealth addresses and CT are the only parts that are absolutely essential to privacy. Ring signatures are great for the paranoid, but they actually aren’t completely necessary. They’re wonderful, but they’re also redundant. Grin strips these away and leaves only stealth addresses and confidential transactions. An observer still can’t derive any useful information from a Grin transaction, and the fact that Grin allows transactions to aggregate, or merge together, makes it even harder to trace.

One of the issues with Monero is blockchain bloat. All this privacy leads to very large transaction sizes. So how do you deal with this? Some solutions like bulletproofs create smaller transactions, but even then you won’t be able to reduce the blockchain size by more than ten times - and it’ll still be bigger than a Bitcoin blockchain of equivalent complexity. This is bad for nodes, because eventually people will run out of space.

So Grin does something pretty darn cool. Let’s say A sends 10 Grin to B, and B later sends that 10 Grin to C. This will be recorded in the final blockchain as A—>C! B gets cut completely, because his ownership of the coins did not change the final state. Now of course nobody will know who A and C are, because of stealth addresses. This is great for cutting down blockchain size because intermediate transactions can be stripped away.

The last thing Grin strips away is something that literally every other cryptocurrency - even Monero - has. With Grin, the entire concept of addresses is eliminated. They just don’t exist. All transactions are created by direct wallet-to-wallet interaction!! Not only is this really cool, but it can be done over email, or any other method. The last great thing about killing addresses is that there is literally nothing to link you to. Even if you reuse the same wallet, there’s no need to create new addresses. Your privacy cannot even be violated by someone with whom you’ve transacted, because you have no address.


As I said before. Grins upwards are smaller transactions sizes, Monero upwards is more opaque ledger so more fungible coin.  Frangibility is Monero main Boss and will never get traded for smaller transactions. If we can get both we will grab them with both hands and legs.

I'm not following you, that quote basically says what I said.
Grin creates more fungible coins as it destroys the links (transactions) automatically but you also have a trade off by not being able to prove a past transaction.
I'm not sure what effect Monero's pruning will have but I think there will still be full nodes with non pruned chains. TBH I don't remember and am not going to go an re-read it.

[Febo]

I'm not following you, that quote basically says what I said.
Grin creates more fungible coins as it destroys the links (transactions) automatically but you also have a trade off by not being able to prove a past transaction.
I'm not sure what effect Monero's pruning will have but I think there will still be full nodes with non pruned chains. TBH I don't remember and am not going to go an re-read it.

Lets reduce to this

Basically, Monero has three privacy protocols. Ring signatures, stealth addresses, and ringCT. However, stealth addresses and CT are the only parts that are absolutely essential to privacy. Ring signatures are great for the paranoid, but they actually aren’t completely necessary. They’re wonderful, but they’re also redundant. Grin strips these away and leaves only stealth addresses and confidential transactions. An observer still can’t derive any useful information from a Grin transaction, and the fact that Grin allows transactions to aggregate, or merge together, makes it even harder to trace.

Monero have 3 Grin 2. Blockhain analysis will break through. Maybe they will fix it. If they will maybe that will be Monero next solution.


This is actually first time I am reading someone propose that grin is less traceable as Monero.  Here is what someone else says:

[Hueristic]

I'm not following you, that quote basically says what I said.
Grin creates more fungible coins as it destroys the links (transactions) automatically but you also have a trade off by not being able to prove a past transaction.
I'm not sure what effect Monero's pruning will have but I think there will still be full nodes with non pruned chains. TBH I don't remember and am not going to go an re-read it.

Lets reduce to this

Basically, Monero has three privacy protocols. Ring signatures, stealth addresses, and ringCT. However, stealth addresses and CT are the only parts that are absolutely essential to privacy. Ring signatures are great for the paranoid, but they actually aren’t completely necessary. They’re wonderful, but they’re also redundant. Grin strips these away and leaves only stealth addresses and confidential transactions. An observer still can’t derive any useful information from a Grin transaction, and the fact that Grin allows transactions to aggregate, or merge together, makes it even harder to trace.

Monero have 3 Grin 2. Blockhain analysis will break through. Maybe they will fix it. If they will maybe that will be Monero next solution.


This is actually first time I am reading someone propose that grin is less traceable as Monero.  Here is what someone else says:

The bolded above is exactly what I said, so you are confusing me here.

I am speaking in terms of chain analysis, not tracing a transaction while its in progress (I have no clue about that) But, like I said

From what I understand of mimblewimble is there are no records kept which yes will make for great fungability but how can you prove you made a transaction in the past?

Everything in life is a tradeoff and you need to choose by what balance you are willing to accept. If you want a fully transparent ledger then BTC is top dog for the job./quote]

If I am incorrect in this understanding then explain to me how? All I have done is a cursory investigation of grin over a year ago so it's not like I propose to be an expert nor a supporter. Although I do support ALL tools to keep an individuals personal information private.

[joroz]

From what I understand of mimblewimble is there are no records kept

There are no records kept in the *blockchain*. But every full node receives all the intermittent states of each transaction, and there is nothing stopping them from logging that information. It requires some credulity to think there are no interested parties who have logged Grin from the genesis block.

A self-pruning blockchain does not equate to a fungible blockchain.

[joroz]

@joroz I can't tell if you're being serious or not.
You should put an emoticon like  if you're being sarcastic.

 

[Globb0]

From what I understand of mimblewimble is there are no records kept

There are no records kept in the *blockchain*. But every full node receives all the intermittent states of each transaction, and there is nothing stopping them from logging that information. It requires some credulity to think there are no interested parties who have logged Grin from the genesis block.

A self-pruning blockchain does not equate to a fungible blockchain.

So they need "listening posts" ?

[equipoise]

From what I understand of mimblewimble is there are no records kept

There are no records kept in the *blockchain*. But every full node receives all the intermittent states of each transaction, and there is nothing stopping them from logging that information. It requires some credulity to think there are no interested parties who have logged Grin from the genesis block.

A self-pruning blockchain does not equate to a fungible blockchain.

Exactly! That's my understanding too. With some full nodes running you can store/trace transactions the same way as Bitcoin blockchain. Grin is not fungible/privacy coin.

[Hueristic]

From what I understand of mimblewimble is there are no records kept

There are no records kept in the *blockchain*. But every full node receives all the intermittent states of each transaction, and there is nothing stopping them from logging that information. It requires some credulity to think there are no interested parties who have logged Grin from the genesis block.

A self-pruning blockchain does not equate to a fungible blockchain.

Thank you Joroz for pointing that out.

So although at any point in time a MW chain would be forensically impossible to analyze it can be assumed that that information (that is not stored in the chain but is accessible and collectable at the time of a transaction) has already been cached by TPTB and I'm sure any others wishing to sell that info in the future.

Is that safe to say?

[Hueristic]

From what I understand of mimblewimble is there are no records kept

There are no records kept in the *blockchain*. But every full node receives all the intermittent states of each transaction, and there is nothing stopping them from logging that information. It requires some credulity to think there are no interested parties who have logged Grin from the genesis block.

A self-pruning blockchain does not equate to a fungible blockchain.

Exactly! That's my understanding too. With some full nodes running you can store/trace transactions the same way as Bitcoin blockchain. Grin is not fungible/privacy coin.

Do you have a link that supports your assertion that Grin Full Nodes do indeed (by default?) keep this information?

BTW what about the other MW clones?