[XMR] Monero Speculation

[dEBRUYNE]

Poloniex adds fiat deposits and withdrawals - Monero included (XMR/USDC pair is available on Poloniex)!

https://twitter.com/Poloniex/status/1148664944130449415

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[johnalan]

Any predictions from here?


I can't see us dropping lower than 0.005, that said I didn't ever think we'd get to 0.007.

Chances of BTC ATH in next 2 years: I guess 20%.

Chances of USD ATH in next 2 years: I guess 60%


Any thoughts?

[hotforblockchain]

Will be interesting to see what happens to decentralized cryptocurrencies vs. centralized cryptocurrencies in the near future.  I could see a situation coming up where governments will try to force companies like Coinbase and the like to exchange only centralized "legitimate" cryptocurrencies.  

Edit: when I'm talking about centralized cryptocurrencies, I'm thinking of projects that are trying to jump through every single legalization loop hole nations through at it; i.e. Libra, Cardano, etc.

If I remember correctly , Coinbase the " legitimacy" of asset already has been of a huge importance . They are scared of regulation laws which can potentially impact them.

Dont even mention Libra, it a disgrace to block chain technology and crypto currency  name.

[kurious]

Any predictions from here?


I can't see us dropping lower than 0.005, that said I didn't ever think we'd get to 0.007.

Chances of BTC ATH in next 2 years: I guess 20%.

Chances of USD ATH in next 2 years: I guess 60%


Any thoughts?

Right now Bitcoin dominance is seemingly unstoppable.  The investment-grade money (it's not really all retail anymore) favours Bitcoin.  Massive hashing power security supporting their need for sleeping soundly, plus ease of purchase / disposal in massive markets that can offer real liquidity.

ATH against Bitcoin? Very small likelihood in the foreseeable future (2-3 years).... 10%? 
ATH USD?  Not yet, but after the great alt shakeout we are seeing?  Likely for a good coin with a privacy use case which Bitcoin does not (and may never) have - over 50% chance is reasonable in the next 2 years.

But right now?  Steel balls required; Bitcoin calls the shots. 

Dominance heading for 70%, maybe higher.  Shit's gonna hurt for alts until retail FOMO comes in and the alts get some money flowing in that feels it's 'too late' to buy Bitcoin. All SOMA - YMMV, DYOR....

[johnalan]

Any predictions from here?


I can't see us dropping lower than 0.005, that said I didn't ever think we'd get to 0.007.

Chances of BTC ATH in next 2 years: I guess 20%.

Chances of USD ATH in next 2 years: I guess 60%


Any thoughts?

Right now Bitcoin dominance is seemingly unstoppable.  The investment-grade money (it's not really all retail anymore) favours Bitcoin.  Massive hashing power security supporting their need for sleeping soundly, plus ease of purchase / disposal in massive markets that can offer real liquidity.

ATH against Bitcoin? Very small likelihood in the foreseeable future (2-3 years).... 10%? 
ATH USD?  Not yet, but after the great alt shakeout we are seeing?  Likely for a good coin with a privacy use case which Bitcoin does not (and may never) have - over 50% chance is reasonable in the next 2 years.

But right now?  Steel balls required; Bitcoin calls the shots. 

Dominance heading for 70%, maybe higher.  Shit's gonna hurt for alts until retail FOMO comes in and the alts get some money flowing in that feels it's 'too late' to buy Bitcoin. All SOMA - YMMV, DYOR....

Yup totally agree. 2 year out from ATH in fiat. Maybe no more ATH in BTC terms.

[Whtwabbit]

Will be interesting to see what happens to decentralized cryptocurrencies vs. centralized cryptocurrencies in the near future.  I could see a situation coming up where governments will try to force companies like Coinbase and the like to exchange only centralized "legitimate" cryptocurrencies.  

Edit: when I'm talking about centralized cryptocurrencies, I'm thinking of projects that are trying to jump through every single legalization loop hole nations through at it; i.e. Libra, Cardano, etc.

If I remember correctly , Coinbase the " legitimacy" of asset already has been of a huge importance . They are scared of regulation laws which can potentially impact them.

Dont even mention Libra, it a disgrace to block chain technology and crypto currency  name.

Can you remember or supply a link to the "regulation laws which can potentially impact them"?

[Hueristic]

Don't invest in it.

Use it.

You can both invest in it and use it. The one does not necessarily exclude the other. Besides, private wealth storage is a perfectly valid use case.

Yes!
I currently dont have a way to use Monero.
Most of  you will hate me for saying this but in 5 years time, I dont think that there will be much potential for good privacy coins investment wise.
And the reason is that regulation is moving in and they will not like exchanges listing coins which are non traceable.

Using it and expanding it's market reach will be the best protection against future censorship.

I refuse to give a tip online unless they have a Monero address, if we all did that (in other areas as well) then we could create a snowball effect.

@dEBRUYNE, I disagree. BTC seems to be the champ in that department and as long as you can buy Monero with BTC then that probably will not change for awhile.

I currently dont have a way to use Monero.

And the reason is that regulation is moving in and they will not like exchanges listing coins which are non traceable.

Monero have good use case for people and for governments. Regulations will regulate exchanges not the coins since they are permissionless and decentralized. Decentralized exchanges will be harder regulated. 

Monero has the best "Use case" of any virtual currency, the problem is governments do not like to give up the main control they have on the sheeple and that is through the banking system.

[Hueristic]

Good question, i would have said Binance but not anymore (if your in the us). If your not in the US then binance as far as centralized exchanges go.

We need a Decentralized exchange thats safe with low fees and i don't know of one.

From my personal experience:
for BTC-XMR pair
- I would still advise Poloniex, if you just make a trade and immediately send funds to your wallet you reduce the risk substantially (this is true for all exchanges), if manipulation happens it affects the price on all exchanges anyway
- Binance (if not prohibited in your country)
- you can also try tokens.net, it's an exchange founded by the same guy as Bitstamp
BTC-FIAT pair
- Kraken

About decentralized exchange, you can try Bisq (I have just dowloaded app long time ago, didn't make any trades there though), fees doesn't seem too high 0,1% - 0,3%, and I think there is also a FIAT pair available there. The problem might be UX and liquidity (few months ago weekly event Monero Monday increased it, since people were encouraged to trade XMR there, don't know if this is still going on). https://bisq.network/

Just tried that tokens.net and

Your country is not supported
We are constantly working on expanding our service to as many countries as possible. Unfortunately, Tokens platform is not yet available in your country.

Bummer, i'll take a new look at kraken i guess.
Last time i tried them they had back peddled on fiat portal.
and

Poloniex adds fiat deposits and withdrawals - Monero included (XMR/USDC pair is available on Poloniex)!

https://twitter.com/Poloniex/status/1148664944130449415

Poloniex is 0wned by Goldman Ballsacks! That is the Quintessential FatCat bankers we want to stay away from Dammit!
https://www.goldmansachs.com/

Jesus they just manipulated clams to rip off the insurance fund and then dumped all their stolen seized coins us.

The third audit (by X41) of RandomX has successfully been completed!

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/ca71ok/randomx_audit_statuas/

This is great news!

Any predictions from here?


I can't see us dropping lower than 0.005, that said I didn't ever think we'd get to 0.007.

Chances of BTC ATH in next 2 years: I guess 20%.

Chances of USD ATH in next 2 years: I guess 60%


Any thoughts?

Doesn't sound unreasonable if you extent the BTC timeline a bit, I expect once we start to rocket again there will be a new Floor so high that will make us all cry we didn't sell everything to be stocking up right now.

[phishead]

All this talk of will xmr will ever “shake btc dominance” and trying to justify whether the xmr/btc price will ever moon brings back fond memories of early 2016.

All we need now is Hueristic to start dabbling in margin trading again and we are bound to rocket once again after another alphabay announcement

[smooth]

Reasons for XMR to potentially to overtake BTC. I'm not predicting this just throwing out reasons why it could happen.

1. Pure stupidity of crypto markets i.e. anything is possible. e.g. Verge could overtake BTC.
2. Tail reward comes to forefront as a confidence crisis over stability
3. On-chain fungibility advantage recognized as crucial
4. RandomX is a huge success (large and widely-distributed mining network becomes a clear advantage, contributing to a confidence flip)
5. Flexible blocksize results in significantly better on-chain scalability without a bloat explosion that destroys decentralization.

[Hueristic]

All this talk of will xmr will ever “shake btc dominance” and trying to justify whether the xmr/btc price will ever moon brings back fond memories of early 2016.

All we need now is Hueristic to start dabbling in margin trading again and we are bound to rocket once again after another alphabay announcement

Ha, right! I may when Binances new exchange opens. BTW, i wasn't trading when alphabay hit I was temporarily dis-invested while dealing with a liquidity issue and we had been sideways so long I figured i could use those funds elsewhere for a month. I really do have the worst luck.

Reasons for XMR to potentially to overtake BTC. I'm not predicting this just throwing out reasons why it could happen.

1. Pure stupidity of crypto markets i.e. anything is possible. e.g. Verge could overtake BTC.
2. Tail reward comes to forefront as a confidence crisis over stability
3. On-chain fungibility advantage recognized as crucial
4. RandomX is a huge success (large and widely-distributed mining network becomes a clear advantage, contributing to a confidence flip)
5. Flexible blocksize results in significantly better on-chain scalability without a bloat explosion that destroys decentralization.

It would be great but I wouldn't hold my breath. The establishment money are making money on btc/Fiat again and they barely even recognize Bitcoins existence let alone a system that will disrupt their very existence.

[kurious]

Any predictions from here?


I can't see us dropping lower than 0.005, that said I didn't ever think we'd get to 0.007.

Chances of BTC ATH in next 2 years: I guess 20%.

Chances of USD ATH in next 2 years: I guess 60%


Any thoughts?

Right now Bitcoin dominance is seemingly unstoppable.  The investment-grade money (it's not really all retail anymore) favours Bitcoin.  Massive hashing power security supporting their need for sleeping soundly, plus ease of purchase / disposal in massive markets that can offer real liquidity.

ATH against Bitcoin? Very small likelihood in the foreseeable future (2-3 years).... 10%? 
ATH USD?  Not yet, but after the great alt shakeout we are seeing?  Likely for a good coin with a privacy use case which Bitcoin does not (and may never) have - over 50% chance is reasonable in the next 2 years.

But right now?  Steel balls required; Bitcoin calls the shots. 

Dominance heading for 70%, maybe higher.  Shit's gonna hurt for alts until retail FOMO comes in and the alts get some money flowing in that feels it's 'too late' to buy Bitcoin. All SOMA - YMMV, DYOR....

Yup totally agree. 2 year out from ATH in fiat. Maybe no more ATH in BTC terms.

Never say never!  Anything could happen.  Right now it's tough... but this is a far from rational market and I still think Monero is as close to perfect private uncensorable money as you can get.

[Andretti83]

4. RandomX is a huge success (large and widely-distributed mining network becomes a clear advantage, contributing to a confidence flip)

I know not everybody care about BTC mining power consumption, but maybe if can get estimate and it will be something like 0.x% of BTC power requirement and on top of that better distributed network, that would be nice.

And I suspect RandomX on CPU's will consume less than BTC asic's combined.

[dEBRUYNE]

When will RandomX become the new hashing algorithm?

October (conditional on the last audit successfully completing).

[Febo]

Any predictions from here?

I can't see us dropping lower than 0.005, that said I didn't ever think we'd get to 0.007.
Chances of BTC ATH in next 2 years: I guess 20%.
Chances of USD ATH in next 2 years: I guess 60%

Any thoughts?

If you add a year more to those 2 years, I would say that % of chances are way higher then 20% and 60%.  USD one is close to 100%.

[gembitz]

Poloniex adds fiat deposits and withdrawals - Monero included (XMR/USDC pair is available on Poloniex)!

https://twitter.com/Poloniex/status/1148664944130449415

coinbase has been blacklisted by the bitcoin community. :\

[gembitz]

Reasons for XMR to potentially to overtake BTC. I'm not predicting this just throwing out reasons why it could happen.

1. Pure stupidity of crypto markets i.e. anything is possible. e.g. Verge could overtake BTC.
2. Tail reward comes to forefront as a confidence crisis over stability
3. On-chain fungibility advantage recognized as crucial
4. RandomX is a huge success (large and widely-distributed mining network becomes a clear advantage, contributing to a confidence flip)
5. Flexible blocksize results in significantly better on-chain scalability without a bloat explosion that destroys decentralization.

zSNARKS with TOR are already building on $ANC you n00bz ===>



https://freiexchange.com/market/ANC/BTC

[tokeweed]

Reasons for XMR to potentially to overtake BTC. I'm not predicting this just throwing out reasons why it could happen.

1. Pure stupidity of crypto markets i.e. anything is possible. e.g. Verge could overtake BTC.
2. Tail reward comes to forefront as a confidence crisis over stability
3. On-chain fungibility advantage recognized as crucial
4. RandomX is a huge success (large and widely-distributed mining network becomes a clear advantage, contributing to a confidence flip)
5. Flexible blocksize results in significantly better on-chain scalability without a bloat explosion that destroys decentralization.

For 2 - 4, it's possible only if BTC's crazy pumps have really been cos of actual usage.  But it isn't.  The market is just one big, giant casino imo, so '1' is most likely. 

[KeyJockey]

All this talk of will xmr will ever “shake btc dominance” and trying to justify whether the xmr/btc price will ever moon brings back fond memories of early 2016.

All we need now is Hueristic to start dabbling in margin trading again and we are bound to rocket once again after another alphabay announcement

Yeah, that and for Aminorex to come back and start posting more 'brilliance' regularly, LOL

[Febo]

Reasons for XMR to potentially to overtake BTC. I'm not predicting this just throwing out reasons why it could happen.

1. Pure stupidity of crypto markets i.e. anything is possible. e.g. Verge could overtake BTC.
2. Tail reward comes to forefront as a confidence crisis over stability
3. On-chain fungibility advantage recognized as crucial
4. RandomX is a huge success (large and widely-distributed mining network becomes a clear advantage, contributing to a confidence flip)
5. Flexible blocksize results in significantly better on-chain scalability without a bloat explosion that destroys decentralization.

For 2 - 4, it's possible only if BTC's crazy pumps have really been cos of actual usage.  But it isn't.  The market is just one big, giant casino imo, so '1' is most likely. 

It is 3. People and regulators will realize that safest wealth is the one that cant be seen and they will act accordingly and support it.